Central use to accuse moi of gerrymandering - but look at Nyeri-Muranga

[RV Pundit]

• Tweet

Nearly 1/4 of the protected const - are from central. GEMA have eight (if you include Lamu West & Siakago) that are protected - nearly 1/3 of them. By far the greatest beneficiary of gerrymandering - and GEMA politician use this plus tax (somehow they've convinced themselves their counties generate more taxes without any evidence) - to claim "wameonewa".
 
Seem the entire Nyeri county has more or less protected constituencies - and they are no semi-arid (so other factors like geographic size) doesn't count. How did this happen?

And this will only get worse for central as their population figures marginally increases compareed to rest of the country.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2018/07/09/why-27-constituencies-risk-being-scrapped-in-border-review_c1783866

Lamu East, Lamu West, Mvita, Mwatate, Wundanyi, Voi, Bura, Galole, Isiolo South, Kilome, Laisamis, North Horr, Saku, Siakago (now Mbeere North), Ndaragwa, Tetu, Murkurweini, Othaya and Kangema are some of the constituencies that risk losing their status for not meeting the population quota.

Others are Mathioya

[Nefertiti]

GEMA are simply clever and organized. They got there first ahead of other groups. By the time the population evens out there will be more devolution, more urbanization, less tribalism, less corruption and no rigging. You're too late to the party.

I watched with amusement yesterday morning - "State of Jubilee" on NTV - as Ruto sucked up to Uhuru and GEMA... after the empty threats he now fully supports Big 4, Handshake and lifestyle audit. And oh,  Kikuyus don't owe him nada - he simply supported them unconditionally as a patriot.

He took my advice to lie low like an envelope. Instead of threats and spurring with mighty PORK while he's a mere VP. He can now plan quietly and peacefully while letting Uhuru be full PORK. Instead of the cheap trick of being co-president but wanting swara yote in 2022. At least now he can continue enjoying quarter swara in peace... massage Uhuru ego and throw him under the bus later.

[Kadudu]

Treu, Uhuru has the upper hand at this moment and too early starting to fight him. By 2021 Uhuru will be a lame duck and even others close to him at SH will start thinking of their future after 2022. That is the time to strike and not now 4 years to the elections.

GEMA are simply clever and organized. They got there first ahead of other groups. By the time the population evens out there will be more devolution, more urbanization, less tribalism, less corruption and no rigging. You're too late to the party.

I watched with amusement yesterday morning - "State of Jubilee" on NTV - as Ruto sucked up to Uhuru and GEMA... after the empty threats he now fully supports Big 4, Handshake and lifestyle audit. And oh,  Kikuyus don't owe him nada - he simply supported them unconditionally as a patriot.

He took my advice to lie low like an envelope. Instead of threats and spurring with mighty PORK while he's a mere VP. He can now plan quietly and peacefully while letting Uhuru be full PORK. Instead of the cheap trick of being co-president but wanting swara yote in 2022. At least now he can continue enjoying quarter swara in peace... massage Uhuru ego and throw him under the bus later.

[Nefertiti]

RV Pundit,

Economically GEMA produce more than their population %... way behind mhindi and mwarabu of course. Running business in all the diaspora towns. Only mhindi and Somali beat GEMA in business. They're justified to claim they're an enterprise and punda amechoka (Moses Kuria). You praised their Brookesides and dairy farmers right here when Ruto seemed happy.

You fear GEMA (closeted), hence your inability to be calm, calculating and tactical like Ruto. If Omollo's story of your heavy drinking is true, from your kneejerks here, the irrationality, you're more like Uhuru. You're nothing like Ruto who rides GEMA strength rather than fear them. That's what this thread says about you.

[RV Pundit]

First wrong thread - I have Ruto NTV thread somewhere here - Ruto secured 5hrs meeting with Uhuru and ironed out issues --and I bet they reached an understanding- hence the cease fire-

Now let discuss the two issues - or the two underlying gema gripes - that they are under-represented (on evidence here - it's not true)  and taxation (again - evidence it's not true - taxes come from urban areas - we  talking Nairobi, Mombasa, Nakuru, Kisumu & eldoret - roughly accounting for most of taxes). I am not sure how much taxes a merchant in Kericho pays but I'd say not a lot if any. The guys who pay taxes are consumers of goods (VAT), employers & employees(VAT) and say importer/exporters (custom duty).

GEMA are simply clever and organized. They got there first ahead of other groups. By the time the population evens out there will be more devolution, more urbanization, less tribalism, less corruption and no rigging. You're too late to the party.

I watched with amusement yesterday morning - "State of Jubilee" on NTV - as Ruto sucked up to Uhuru and GEMA... after the empty threats he now fully supports Big 4, Handshake and lifestyle audit. And oh,  Kikuyus don't owe him nada - he simply supported them unconditionally as a patriot.

He took my advice to lie low like an envelope. Instead of threats and spurring with mighty PORK while he's a mere VP. He can now plan quietly and peacefully while letting Uhuru be full PORK. Instead of the cheap trick of being co-president but wanting swara yote in 2022. At least now he can continue enjoying quarter swara in peace... massage Uhuru ego and throw him under the bus later.

[RV Pundit]

Here you go with more psycho-analysis but let me ignore that. I was suprised to see nearly 1/3 of protected const are in GEMA. And it's going to get "worse" for them politically - but economically - they will reap alot from demographic dividend.Yes GEMA on average are less poor (richer) than everyone else bar the bahindi/whites/arabs - the poverty rate is around 20% - against national poverty rate of 36% - so that is very true. I expect to see poverty rate fall down even faster - Meru is doing extremely well and so is Kirinyanga - and but politically GEMA are going down - politics is about numbers - and they are increasingly having less and less numbers. Nairobi for instance they've to forget being a governor anytime soon.

RV Pundit,

Economically GEMA produce more than their population %... way behind mhindi and mwarabu of course. Running business in all the diaspora towns. Only mhindi and Somali beat GEMA in business. They're justified to claim they're an enterprise and punda amechoka (Moses Kuria). You praised their Brookesides and dairy farmers right here when Ruto seemed happy.

You fear GEMA (closeted), hence your inability to be calm, calculating and tactical like Ruto. If Omollo's story of your heavy drinking is true, from your kneejerks here, the irrationality, you're more like Uhuru. You're nothing like Ruto who rides GEMA strength rather than fear them. That's what this thread says about you.

[RV Pundit]

Not with Raila's handshake. If there was no Raila in the background - Ruto would execute your strategy. Now with Raila at uhuru service - Ruto has to play politics - and engage in cold war with both Raila and Uhuru. Anything else would be stupidity and Ruto is not stupid. He has to make sure Raila never get his head inside gov - and that his team of 14 don't make us go to referendum. In fact the biggest threat to Ruto is just that constitutional change.

Treu, Uhuru has the upper hand at this moment and too early starting to fight him. By 2021 Uhuru will be a lame duck and even others close to him at SH will start thinking of their future after 2022. That is the time to strike and not now 4 years to the elections.

[Globalcitizen12]

Kikuyus rank and file do not have faith in ruto. Ruto is seen by kikuyus as a reckless thiefm kikuyus had and still have a soft spot for moi. The only gripe they had with moi is him allowing free for all looting

[RV Pundit]

Only one kikuyu matters when it come to politics at this day & time - the man is Uhuru - he has basically destroyed any divergent voice  & sfter saving kikuyu from 2007 progom basically earned himself the king of Kikuyu nation - and therefore for Ruto - he either has Uhuru backing or not. If he doesn't get Uhuru backing - he should forget kikuyu vote. Maybe he can get a few merus & embus - without Uhuru - but he shouldn't bet on that without Uhuru direct & passionate backing.

The views of kikuyu ahoi or Luo fisherman or kalenjin herder really don't matter. When doing MOAS - I ignore them with contempt they deserve If Raila or Uhuru or Ruto move - I move the entire millions of votes wthout second thought.

How Ruto handles Uhuru is going to be key. He need to offer Uhuru a deal he can't refuse. If it mean naming Uhuru girlfriend Waiguru to DPORK or even Uhuru wife or son - so be it.

Kikuyus rank and file do not have faith in ruto. Ruto is seen by kikuyus as a reckless thiefm kikuyus had and still have a soft spot for moi. The only gripe they had with moi is him allowing free for all looting

[Kichwa]

The problem is that Ouru will accept is something that Ruto cannot give up: 2022 presidency. This is why I said their differences are irreconcilable. I saw the Kalenjin made an offer for Ouru to take an executive prime minister and for Ruto to take a ceremonial presidency. That would lead Kenya back to the two tribe unstable government that Ouru is trying to stay away from.

Only one kikuyu matters when it come to politics at this day & time - the man is Uhuru - he has basically destroyed any divergent voice  & sfter saving kikuyu from 2007 progom basically earned himself the king of Kikuyu nation - and therefore for Ruto - he either has Uhuru backing or not. If he doesn't get Uhuru backing - he should forget kikuyu vote. Maybe he can get a few merus & embus - without Uhuru - but he shouldn't bet on that without Uhuru direct & passionate backing.

The views of kikuyu ahoi or Luo fisherman or kalenjin herder really don't matter. When doing MOAS - I ignore them with contempt they deserve If Raila or Uhuru or Ruto move - I move the entire millions of votes wthout second thought.

How Ruto handles Uhuru is going to be key. He need to offer Uhuru a deal he can't refuse. If it mean naming Uhuru girlfriend Waiguru to DPORK or even Uhuru wife or son - so be it.

Kikuyus rank and file do not have faith in ruto. Ruto is seen by kikuyus as a reckless thiefm kikuyus had and still have a soft spot for moi. The only gripe they had with moi is him allowing free for all looting

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru has to figure out how to beat the term limit if he want to continue. I think Ruto would find that acceptable as long as Ruto is top dog and Uhuru is the smaller dog. Uhuru has had his 10yrs - he should count himself lucky and find someone he can endorse. Trying to beat term limit in Kenya is not easy. I won't even attempt it.

The problem is that Ouru will accept is something that Ruto cannot give up: 2022 presidency. This is why I said their differences are irreconcilable. I saw the Kalenjin made an offer for Ouru to take an executive prime minister and for Ruto to take a ceremonial presidency. That would lead Kenya back to the two tribe unstable government that Ouru is trying to stay away from.

[Higgins the genius]

Uhuru has to figure out how to beat the term limit if he want to continue. I think Ruto would find that acceptable as long as Ruto is top dog and Uhuru is the smaller dog. Uhuru has had his 10yrs - he should count himself lucky and find someone he can endorse. Trying to beat term limit in Kenya is not easy. I won't even attempt it.

The problem is that Ouru will accept is something that Ruto cannot give up: 2022 presidency. This is why I said their differences are irreconcilable. I saw the Kalenjin made an offer for Ouru to take an executive prime minister and for Ruto to take a ceremonial presidency. That would lead Kenya back to the two tribe unstable government that Ouru is trying to stay away from.

Can PK for example take over GEMA leadership by fighting Uhuru or by supporting him?

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Last time I checked (last election constituency populations) I found that Central was actually underrepresented based on the current constituencies.  As was Nairobi.

[RV Pundit]

It depend what you use. If you use pop then they aren't. If you use voting /registered votes - there could be an argument there. Central has a "mature" demographic profile - less kids and more adults.

Last time I checked (last election constituency populations) I found that Central was actually underrepresented based on the current constituencies.  As was Nairobi.

[RV Pundit]

Gema cannot fight Uhuru. It's non-gema to o tthat.

Can PK for example take over GEMA leadership by fighting Uhuru or by supporting him?

[Omollo]

The "clever GEMA" line again!

Robina, there is a reason Pundit mentioned Moi in the subject. At the time the last review was done Kibaki was the president and the entire GEMA machinery came in to play. The constitution was written on GEMA's watch and they added the clause denying the IIBRC ( Interim Independent Boundaries Review Commission of Kenya) the powers to kill some under populated constituencies and merge whatever remains of the constituents.

Infact the whole thing would have gone unnoticed had Ligale not used the opportunity to create a few constituencies for himself and his paying friends.

On the higher ground: Gerrymandering is the privilege of the people in power. Republicans do it all the time to keep their hold on power in the face of immigration and a changing face of the country.

I read the story and was amused by the remarks made by Shariff Nassir's son. People live where they defecate in the morning for a least most of the year. So if people live in Likoni but work for Arabs on the Island, well they are Likoni residents and that is where they should have their constituency. Abdulsamad can relocate the way Kibaki fled Nairobi back to Othaya.

GEMA have tried everything and deployed every trick. I think even the most bigoted Kikuyu now knows the game is up. They either allow power to be based on democratic principles or the billions they have looted will be eaten up and lost in a civil war. They have reached the De Klerk moment. The boers were told by their special branch to choose between a civil war and loss of lifestyle. They opted for lifestyle. We all know they made a wise choice. My fear is that GEMA may not be as wise.

GEMA are simply clever and organized. They got there first ahead of other groups. By the time the population evens out there will be more devolution, more urbanization, less tribalism, less corruption and no rigging. You're too late to the party.

I watched with amusement yesterday morning - "State of Jubilee" on NTV - as Ruto sucked up to Uhuru and GEMA... after the empty threats he now fully supports Big 4, Handshake and lifestyle audit. And oh,  Kikuyus don't owe him nada - he simply supported them unconditionally as a patriot.

He took my advice to lie low like an envelope. Instead of threats and spurring with mighty PORK while he's a mere VP. He can now plan quietly and peacefully while letting Uhuru be full PORK. Instead of the cheap trick of being co-president but wanting swara yote in 2022. At least now he can continue enjoying quarter swara in peace... massage Uhuru ego and throw him under the bus later.

[RV Pundit]

The thing I see with GEMA is selfishness and short-termism. GEMA had the privelege of demographic, leadership & economic power. They became  proud,insular and selfish. When things change as they will - they they'll find themselves in a very hard place. Moi 24yrs in power took away the political privilege and there was huge gnashing of teeth. Now they are terrified with Ruto set to become PORK again. Their demographic edge is pretty much about gone (2019 census will confirm this). The wealth of agriculture is going to be wiped out by new mineral wealth - Oil in most of rift valley - for instance will change dynamic. GEMA need to stop being selfish. It selfish to demand that population be the only criteria to dice country resources. When your population reduces, you'll regret that - GEMA are looking at loosing about 10 const in 2017. It is selfish to call for federalism because you think you can collect more taxes. When turkana get oil - you'll wish you hadn't done that. It is selfish to make political deals and refuse to honour it. There will be payback.

The "clever GEMA" line again!

Robina, there is a reason Pundit mentioned Moi in the subject. At the time the last review was done Kibaki was the president and the entire GEMA machinery came in to play. The constitution was written on GEMA's watch and they added the clause denying the IIBRC ( Interim Independent Boundaries Review Commission of Kenya) the powers to kill some under populated constituencies and merge whatever remains of the constituents.

Infact the whole thing would have gone unnoticed had Ligale not used the opportunity to create a few constituencies for himself and his paying friends.

On the higher ground: Gerrymandering is the privilege of the people in power. Republicans do it all the time to keep their hold on power in the face of immigration and a changing face of the country.

I read the story and was amused by the remarks made by Shariff Nassir's son. People live where they defecate in the morning for a least most of the year. So if people live in Likoni but work for Arabs on the Island, well they are Likoni residents and that is where they should have their constituency. Abdulsamad can relocate the way Kibaki fled Nairobi back to Othaya.

GEMA have tried everything and deployed every trick. I think even the most bigoted Kikuyu now knows the game is up. They either allow power to be based on democratic principles or the billions they have looted will be eaten up and lost in a civil war. They have reached the De Klerk moment. The boers were told by their special branch to choose between a civil war and loss of lifestyle. They opted for lifestyle. We all know they made a wise choice. My fear is that GEMA may not be as wise.

GEMA are simply clever and organized. They got there first ahead of other groups. By the time the population evens out there will be more devolution, more urbanization, less tribalism, less corruption and no rigging. You're too late to the party.

I watched with amusement yesterday morning - "State of Jubilee" on NTV - as Ruto sucked up to Uhuru and GEMA... after the empty threats he now fully supports Big 4, Handshake and lifestyle audit. And oh,  Kikuyus don't owe him nada - he simply supported them unconditionally as a patriot.

He took my advice to lie low like an envelope. Instead of threats and spurring with mighty PORK while he's a mere VP. He can now plan quietly and peacefully while letting Uhuru be full PORK. Instead of the cheap trick of being co-president but wanting swara yote in 2022. At least now he can continue enjoying quarter swara in peace... massage Uhuru ego and throw him under the bus later.

[hk]

The thing I see with GEMA is selfishness and short-termism. GEMA had the privelege of demographic, leadership & economic power. They became  proud,insular and selfish. When things change as they will - they they'll find themselves in a very hard place. Moi 24yrs in power took away the political privilege and there was huge gnashing of teeth. Now they are terrified with Ruto set to become PORK again. Their demographic edge is pretty much about gone (2019 census will confirm this). The wealth of agriculture is going to be wiped out by new mineral wealth - Oil in most of rift valley - for instance will change dynamic. GEMA need to stop being selfish. It selfish to demand that population be the only criteria to dice country resources. When your population reduces, you'll regret that - GEMA are looking at loosing about 10 const in 2017. It is selfish to call for federalism because you think you can collect more taxes. When turkana get oil - you'll wish you hadn't done that. It is selfish to make political deals and refuse to honour it. There will be payback.

I think federalism would be could for kenya not just GEMA. Narok has been collecting levies from massai mara since the days of ole ntimama yet narok residents aren't more wealthier than their counterparts in Bomet county. Another one is kwale with titanium, are the residents any wealthier than lamu's? Why? Because there's a big difference between county collecting huge amounts and residents income. If turkanas were smart they would insist on mineral rights ownership of land owners. That way they can sell drilling rights or mining rights and actually benefit from that. Just need to copy and paste america's mineral rights law. Lack of this law is the reason why coal in kitui or iron ore in tharaka nithi hasn't been exploited. I have always advocated for some type of federalism or resource allocation to be determined by taxes derived from the respective counties. There's this misconception that Nairobi represent 60% of our GDP and as such it would soak up 60% of taxes if we adopted federalism. If agriculture represents more than 40% of kenya economy direct and indirectly and there's zero agriculture in nairobi how can that number be correct?

Population in rural constituencies is decreasing. Mukurweini, othaya can be merged but nyeri town on the hand has to be split because its growing. Why? urbanization. There's hardly anyone of my age in the village I grew up in. Actually a new phenomena is happening, land is now readily available to lease or sale.

[RV Pundit]

I am also for federalism - but not for selfish reason that xyz county produce more and should therefore get more (things could change overnight!!)  - but more coz it's empower people to make decision about key issues i.e education - I think Mandera & Turkana getting more is well deserved. There is no doubt that if taxes were to be shared based on contribution - Nairobi & Urban centers will get most of it. Agriculture is just mere 25% of the GDP - so a whole 75% is out there mostly in urban areas.As regard GEMA population - yes part of it is urbanaize - but there is no denying that gema population is transitioning with less & less births - as compared to other tribes - therefore they'll definitely lose some seats - urban areas will get more but those are cosmopolitan in nature - and anyone could theoritically win a seat in Mombasa, Nairobi, part of Machakos, Kiambu & Kajiado, Nakuru, Kisumu & eldoret for example. Gema as to stop wearing the selfishness tag like it's some honour. They need to embrace other kenyans and nationhood. Jubilee & UhuRuto have made this happen a lot and I hope this continue.

I think federalism would be could for kenya not just GEMA. Narok has been collecting levies from massai mara since the days of ole ntimama yet narok residents aren't more wealthier than their counterparts in Bomet county. Another one is kwale with titanium, are the residents any wealthier than lamu's? Why? Because there's a big difference between county collecting huge amounts and residents income. If turkanas were smart they would insist on mineral rights ownership of land owners. That way they can sell drilling rights or mining rights and actually benefit from that. Just need to copy and paste america's mineral rights law. Lack of this law is the reason why coal in kitui or iron ore in tharaka nithi hasn't been exploited. I have always advocated for some type of federalism or resource allocation to be determined by taxes derived from the respective counties. There's this misconception that Nairobi represent 60% of our GDP and as such it would soak up 60% of taxes if we adopted federalism. If agriculture represents more than 40% of kenya economy direct and indirectly and there's zero agriculture in nairobi how can that number be correct?

Population in rural constituencies is decreasing. Mukurweini, othaya can be merged but nyeri town on the hand has to be split because its growing. Why? urbanization. There's hardly anyone of my age in the village I grew up in. Actually a new phenomena is happening, land is now readily available to lease or sale.

[hk]

I am also for federalism - but not for selfish reason that xyz county produce more and should therefore get more (things could change overnight!!)  - but more coz it's empower people to make decision about key issues i.e education - I think Mandera & Turkana getting more is well deserved. There is no doubt that if taxes were to be shared based on contribution - Nairobi & Urban centers will get most of it. Agriculture is just mere 25% of the GDP - so a whole 75% is out there mostly in urban areas.As regard GEMA population - yes part of it is urbanaize - but there is no denying that gema population is transitioning with less & less births - as compared to other tribes - therefore they'll definitely lose some seats - urban areas will get more but those are cosmopolitan in nature - and anyone could theoritically win a seat in Mombasa, Nairobi, part of Machakos, Kiambu & Kajiado, Nakuru, Kisumu & eldoret for example. Gema as to stop wearing the selfishness tag like it's some honour. They need to embrace other kenyans and nationhood. Jubilee & UhuRuto have made this happen a lot and I hope this continue.

I think federalism would be could for kenya not just GEMA. Narok has been collecting levies from massai mara since the days of ole ntimama yet narok residents aren't more wealthier than their counterparts in Bomet county. Another one is kwale with titanium, are the residents any wealthier than lamu's? Why? Because there's a big difference between county collecting huge amounts and residents income. If turkanas were smart they would insist on mineral rights ownership of land owners. That way they can sell drilling rights or mining rights and actually benefit from that. Just need to copy and paste america's mineral rights law. Lack of this law is the reason why coal in kitui or iron ore in tharaka nithi hasn't been exploited. I have always advocated for some type of federalism or resource allocation to be determined by taxes derived from the respective counties. There's this misconception that Nairobi represent 60% of our GDP and as such it would soak up 60% of taxes if we adopted federalism. If agriculture represents more than 40% of kenya economy direct and indirectly and there's zero agriculture in nairobi how can that number be correct?

Population in rural constituencies is decreasing. Mukurweini, othaya can be merged but nyeri town on the hand has to be split because its growing. Why? urbanization. There's hardly anyone of my age in the village I grew up in. Actually a new phenomena is happening, land is now readily available to lease or sale.

Agriculture isn't 25% when you consider part of manufacturing is agriprocessing. Also all the companies are domiciled in Nairobi which eskews the figures. Gema  advocating for federalism isn't for selfish reason its away to determine their destiny also resources are better utilized generated locally. As it is already there are counties that collect more money than gema counties.
Yes population growth in gema is slower just like most gema   counties have lower child mortality. Eventually other counties also population growth will decrease.