Ecommerce is bound to disrupt kenya retail market because already manufacturers are looking for a different distribution channel as supermarkets struggle. Also kenya has a sizable internet users mainly mobile. If safaricom can mine its data to target potential customers that might make the platform quite appealing to sellers. Already Jumia and olx has intergrated Mpesa into their system, unless safaricom comes up with one click payment like they have in their fibre home payment option.
Safaricom are going one-click. They have muscle so they will hold stock to ensure delivery. Amazon has this advantage over Alibaba and sites like eBay. Stocking ensures quality of goods plus speed and guarantee of fulfillment. The downside is the extra cost which narrows margins for everyone. If you look at the Amazon and Alibaba reports you will see the dramatic margin difference.
But it's better this way (stocking and fulfillment stores) in a place like Kenya with a myriad of trust issues. Fulfillment will be guaranteed which helps small sellers. Safaricom will be a reseller (middleman) rather than just a platform. Meaning legal and organizational impact should the dominance maneno continue.
Mpesa will continue to grow with this. They may have to integrate other payments - Equitel, paypal & cards - which I think is now mandated by the CBK.
Another thing Safaricom has a mature data analytics platform. With acres of customer, network and Mpesa data they must have proper insights to target and entice buyers and sellers. If they play this well they can be a local Amazon. It all depends on many perfect steps they must take. Jumia is well funded and run - while OLX is the local eBay - these two are no pushovers.