GEMA's Last Chance is the Kalenjin

[Omollo]

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If GEMA bungles their alliance with the Kalenjin, they are done for ever! Already Kibaki cheated Kalonzo so the Kambas are out; Then Raila ignored the shafting his father received and make a deal with Kibaki and was shafted like Jaramogi; The Luhya's have been wiser and treat GEMA with extreme suspicion. We know that they are the next target of GEMA's deception.

If they want an alliance partner, they should hold on to the one they have. An alliance is not with an individual - however popular. An alliance is with the people. Thus Uhuru should give Ruto something to take to his people if he has to keep them in the fold. Sending him to accompany Duale on Matusi trips is very disrespectful of the office of DP and the URP-TNA alliance.

I doubt that anybody will be so stupid as to make another deal with GEMA. Even some of the GEMA tribes such as the Meru now feel short-changed and are loudly announcing that they will join other Kenyans in taking care of the interests of their own people (see Kiraitu Murungi's statement yesterday)

[George Lamming]

Omollo: What is your obsession with tribalism. Grow up. I will push for you to get ejected from this forum, or get NJL here to contain you. You are such a tribal MF

[Omollo]

Omollo: What is your obsession with tribalism. Grow up. I will push for you to get ejected from this forum, or get NJL here to contain you. You are such a tribal MF

Hurry up.

[TheDayTheDollarDies]

Omollo: What is your obsession with tribalism. Grow up. I will push for you to get ejected from this forum, or get NJL here to contain you. You are such a tribal MF

Omollo wakes up Kikuyu, sleeps Kikuyu. Her threads are all about kikuyu, Gema, Kenyatta. Nothing else.

[Omollo]

Omollo wakes up Kikuyu, sleeps Kikuyu. Her threads are all about kikuyu, Gema, Kenyatta. Nothing else.

What is your beef? That I mention Kikuyu / GEMA or the issues associated with the mentioning? I dare say you are the one introducing non issues in a clearly stated argument which you are unable to argue against.

[George Lamming]

Omollo: You are better than this. Try to get out of tribalism. We will help you.

[Omollo]

Omollo: You are better than this. Try to get out of tribalism. We will help you.

Help Uhuru first then come to me

[machoman]

Our politics are tribal. Let is not cheat ourselves.

[Kichwambaya]

Mudavadi and Wamalwa already tasted the betrayal.  Ruto was paid upfront and that is why Mama Ngina believes he is owed anything. I heard that when he asked why only kikuyus were getting plum jobs he was told, "where do you think the money we gave you came from?  It's very simple, the people who contributed to the campaign have to be paid back with plum jobs so that they can get their money back by stealing.

Stopping ouru in 2017 is very important because if ouru goes back then kikuyus will have enough time to  groom and line up another kikuyu for 2022 and they will kill devolution.  The campaign for devolution should continue into referendum and then continue straight into 2017 presidential campaign whethere we win referendum or Not or even if do not have a referendum.

[Olekoima]

If GEMA bungles their alliance with the Kalenjin, they are done for ever! Already Kibaki cheated Kalonzo so the Kambas are out; Then Raila ignored the shafting his father received and make a deal with Kibaki and was shafted like Jaramogi; The Luhya's have been wiser and treat GEMA with extreme suspicion. We know that they are the next target of GEMA's deception.

If they want an alliance partner, they should hold on to the one they have. An alliance is not with an individual - however popular. An alliance is with the people. Thus Uhuru should give Ruto something to take to his people if he has to keep them in the fold. Sending him to accompany Duale on Matusi trips is very disrespectful of the office of DP and the URP-TNA alliance.

I doubt that anybody will be so stupid as to make another deal with GEMA. Even some of the GEMA tribes such as the Meru now feel short-changed and are loudly announcing that they will join other Kenyans in taking care of the interests of their own people (see Kiraitu Murungi's statement yesterday)

Quite my observations too.

[RV Pundit]

GEMA will always be strong until we have everyone else registering and voting in good numbers. I see their % of voters coming down from 30% down to 25%. GEMA population within Kenya i think is 17.5%(kikuyu)+5%(Meru+Embu)....so roughly 23%...and possibly dropping...such that by 2017...their population will be 20%.

[George Lamming]

RVP: Wrong! This guys turn out 90% plus. You need to rething your numbers. I do however trust your judgement. I will look at at what you are saying. If what you are saying is correct, assuming that all other dynamics stay the same, The Luo or Luhya could be a game changer. You are talking of a 5% margin. I stand corrected.

GEMA will always be strong until we have everyone else registering and voting in good numbers. I see their % of voters coming down from 30% down to 25%. GEMA population within Kenya i think is 17.5%(kikuyu)+5%(Meru+Embu)....so roughly 23%...and possibly dropping...such that by 2017...their population will be 20%.

[RV Pundit]

1) Everyone last yr turn out impressively at 85%...in that sense turn out is now evening out.

2) Registration is i think the problem for CORD allied communities...assuming IEBC projection of adults were accurate.

3) GEMA population are transitioning...less kids...more adults. In place like NEP or Norther kenya..you have more kids than adults.

4) Generally in kenya...at least 60% of population i think are under 18yrs.

5) Kikuyu pop has dropped from 22.5%(89 census) to 20%(99 census) to 17.5%(09)...by 2017..that will be nearly another 10yrs..so basic progression...kikuyus population will be 15%...today i can wager they're 16.5% of kenya...luhyas are 14.5%.

6) I do not have meru and embu numbers off head...but i would place them combined at about 5-6%(09 census)

In short GEMA demographic domination is definitely coming to an end....this mostly due to low births and immigration outside kenya...while communities like maa,somalis and others are in midst of baby boom...typical somali family now has 10-15 kids per woman....in central..you're talking 3 kids on average.

The upside GEMA will reap from demographic dividend..that mean more working adults feeding less mouths (under 18yrs and over 65yrs)...therefore people will be able to save more..and will stop living from hand to mouth....so more wealth.

RVP: Wrong! This guys turn out 90% plus. You need to rething your numbers. I do however trust your judgement. I will look at at what you are saying. If what you are saying is correct, assuming that all other dynamics stay the same, The Luo or Luhya could be a game changer. You are talking of a 5% margin. I stand corrected.

[mya88]

Ruto had all it takes to checkmate uhuru and the GEMA mafia. He is/was brilliant, hardworking, ambitious, youth, driven and had he had the backing of all RV behind him. That is all he needed going into this dysfunctional union, but he lost all bargaining power when mama ngina bought his soul. Now he has to sit back and watch the state of the country in dissarray and cannot do much about it. Gema mafia are conniving, they will always find another idiot who is willing to sell his soul for the right amount of money at the expense of the sheeple.

[George Lamming]

RVP: On #5 you are absolutely correct. Kikuyus #s are dropping and will no longer be a serious consideration. But other dynamics developing is the lack of ethnic affinity. In the next election, Tyranny of the Numbers may be about age. I heard somewhere that TNA is registering 'youths' in heavy numbers to secure 2017. I would!

[RV Pundit]

Wishful thinking.Tribe will remain big for another 100 yrs in kenya.Whoever will win in the future will need 3 of the 5 big communities. Not 2. Also the role of minorities (coastal+northern eastern+maa) will become more critical as their population increases tremendously.Somalis going by the last census should be sixth largest tribe after Kambas...having eclipsed gussii and merus.

There will be new realities.

RVP: On #5 you are absolutely correct. Kikuyus #s are dropping and will no longer be a serious consideration. But other dynamics developing is the lack of ethnic affinity. In the next election, Tyranny of the Numbers may be about age. I heard somewhere that TNA is registering 'youths' in heavy numbers to secure 2017. I would!

[Omollo]

Somalis will play an increasingly important role in Kenyan politics. They are a huge group that has been in the background on account of deliberate state oppression. I expect more of them to register to vote especially with devolution becoming a reality.

The latest trend where African immigrants to the West are returning home will also see a large number of these returning especially if Tullow Oil is not lying to us. The Somalis are very liquid and will be looking for investment opportunities and if NEP becomes secure and opens up economically, that would be the place for them.

Isaak Hassan and Duale have not been very good ambassadors. The conduct of The Mullah, Abdillahi and others like Keynan had endeared them to other Kenyans. The mishandling of the elections by Hassan and the stupid decision by Abdi Kadir to take up a job at State House marked a down turn. I never understood why he didn't go to manage their banks.

[Olekoima]

Ruto had all it takes to checkmate uhuru and the GEMA mafia. He is/was brilliant, hardworking, ambitious, youth, driven and had he had the backing of all RV behind him. That is all he needed going into this dysfunctional union, but he lost all bargaining power when mama ngina bought his soul. Now he has to sit back and watch the state of the country in dissarray and cannot do much about it. Gema mafia are conniving, they will always find another idiot who is willing to sell his soul for the right amount of money at the expense of the sheeple.

While you may be right, it is not always true that you can buy an individual together with the masses ( people ) behind him. At one stage they will rebel against him should their interests be put in jeorpady.

[Robina]

So long as GEMA have some-numbers + money + scheming-think-tanks they will always have bargaining power. By the time numbers reduce there will be 50%+ devolution and electoral college    The more we devolve the more tyranny become useless. So you can suffice to say GEMA are lucky to be in right numbers at the right time. Another lucky sob was Moi.