Author Topic: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.  (Read 18692 times)

Offline RV Pundit

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MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« on: September 23, 2017, 09:59:39 AM »
Let start with baseline - as 8.8.2017

I first removed the others - and shared them equally btw Mr Uhuru and Mr Odinga.

Turn out is interesting. Look like KIEMS kits finally dealt with dead or absentee voting - Kalenjin,Luo and Kikuyu inflated turn out? The max now is 87% Nyeri. Homabay will normally post 95% turn out - reduced to 84%.
Kisumu had turn out of 70%? Coast led by Mombasa continue with their lacklustre turn out.

My projection is we'll have low turn out - possibly 10% drop from 77% to 67% or worse during the run-off.

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2017, 11:55:10 AM »
 8) 8) 8)

It'll go just like the last time... with turnout effect which should undermine NASA. I don't see that in your chart.

Some people will tell you about laughable Blockchain :D - basically decentralize IEBC - and allow anonymous voting by bots and aliens.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2017, 12:41:04 PM »
I haven't done anything except equally share the 1% btw Raila and Odinga.This is our baseline coz I believe nobody has impugned these figures...so next step is to adjust figures to reflect political reality of the day n play around turnout

Offline bryan275

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Re: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2017, 03:21:49 PM »
8) 8) 8)

It'll go just like the last time... with turnout effect which should undermine NASA. I don't see that in your chart.

Some people will tell you about laughable Blockchain :D - basically decentralize IEBC - and allow anonymous voting by bots and aliens.

Blockchain is not as laughable as you're saying.  I say we decentralise the server.  Let the polling stations write their results to the blockchain, then everyone can look at the blockchain and tally the results.  The key thing is that no one can amend the results once written to the blockchain. 

Decentralising the server will definitely cure this JEBC deliberately defying court orders. 

Obviously electoral riggers and other criminals will not support a system that is designed to be open, free and fair.

NASA would beat Jubilee hands down were the elections held in a free and fair manner.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2017, 03:51:18 PM »
Don't waste time unsticky it coz I am gonna stick it until I don't have the rights to stick it. If this is too painful a truth for you - too bad. This is my version of the truth and I feel it should be sticked it up.

Offline Globalcitizen12

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Re: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2017, 03:59:26 PM »
Raila lives and dies at 45..unless ruto died suddenly or Uhuru got convicted for killing a ram

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2017, 04:03:47 PM »
If you factor the political realignment - he'll be happy to get 45%.  I am not convinced yet he is going for elections - so I'll let this marinate for a week or so - because I believe their strategy right now is NUSU MKATE or something close to that - Caretaker gov - going for an election is to attend your own funeral.
Raila lives and dies at 45..unless ruto died suddenly or Uhuru got convicted for killing a ram

Offline Globalcitizen12

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Re: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2017, 09:22:27 AM »
NASA has disorganized uhuru and jubilee..the strategic move of NASA to fail to engage jubilee in a hand and combat on campaign trail is really a smart move..it gives NASA a tactical advantage.. now they can use the calm in the grassroots to up door to door campaigns in bid to drive turnout..if NASA can then cause another crisis to push elections to November 30th ..this will mean screw ball won't be president then but in a marriage with some one else..then high court may nullify all the other 6 ballots lighting the fire on this ..so in the end Everyone will raia and most newly elected mps would lose

Raila is really fucking everyone with no grease

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2017, 12:59:27 PM »
Lack of strategy to win an election can be a strategy. Raila is thinking about NUSU-Mkate however nobody is bitting. He need to think about trying not to ruin his legacy by trying to post respectable figures on 26th.
NASA has disorganized uhuru and jubilee..the strategic move of NASA to fail to engage jubilee in a hand and combat on campaign trail is really a smart move..it gives NASA a tactical advantage.. now they can use the calm in the grassroots to up door to door campaigns in bid to drive turnout..if NASA can then cause another crisis to push elections to November 30th ..this will mean screw ball won't be president then but in a marriage with some one else..then high court may nullify all the other 6 ballots lighting the fire on this ..so in the end Everyone will raia and most newly elected mps would lose

Raila is really fucking everyone with no grease

Offline GeeMail

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Re: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2017, 12:11:08 PM »
MOASS = Mother of Soothsayers and Speculators Inc.
Celebratory violence: 2017 crime invented to justify killings to prevent Raila from becoming PORK. http://www.nipate.com/download/file.php?id=4244

Offline Globalcitizen12

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Re: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2017, 01:16:43 PM »
Lack of strategy to win an election can be a strategy. Raila is thinking about NUSU-Mkate however nobody is bitting. He need to think about trying not to ruin his legacy by trying to post respectable figures on 26th.
NASA has disorganized uhuru and jubilee..the strategic move of NASA to fail to engage jubilee in a hand and combat on campaign trail is really a smart move..it gives NASA a tactical advantage.. now they can use the calm in the grassroots to up door to door campaigns in bid to drive turnout..if NASA can then cause another crisis to push elections to November 30th ..this will mean screw ball won't be president then but in a marriage with some one else..then high court may nullify all the other 6 ballots lighting the fire on this ..so in the end Everyone will raia and most newly elected mps would lose

Raila is really fucking everyone with no grease
Strategically raila is on offense. You guys are playing defense since when raila kicked Izaak rabin front iebc..now raila is using this time to create a lot of smoke and mirrors. Ouru base is confused, his base is restless, his base has no moral authority to challenge NASA maraga denied them a chance to poop on katiba, ruto is waiting to see what ngina child does, he played all his cards leading up to elections, the neophytes elected in rv and central have no way to go around raila Constitutional roadblock without destroying the egg shell that is Kenya ..so everyone now is just rumor mongering in private
raila protests means businesses will close and open every other few hours .the joke is that when a few luos are seen walking in dtw Nairobi shops barricade and people take off

A bottle fell in River road and everyone scattered..

Raila is pooping on the cake that ruto bake for his husband

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2017, 01:33:20 PM »
Here we are - Final MOAS projections
National turn out projected to be around 45-50% -49%.
Uhuru projected to win with 95-97% - Raila coming second with 2-3% - and others 1-2%.
Uhuru projected to win with total cast votes of 9.5M votes - 1m more votes than he garnered in 8th.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2017, 02:37:09 PM by RV Pundit »

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2017, 01:39:06 PM »
Here is final MOASS - expect to see final final MOASS tomorrow

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2017, 01:42:21 PM »
Conclusion from MOASS; This is going to be a disaster for NASA. Not only will Uhuru increase his 8th August tally - I am expecting at least 500 people :) to vote in the 3 Luo counties of Nyanza and lot more in Migori - where Kurias will be voting in numbers.

Uhuru legitimacy and mandate will not be in questions. Just ran the figures.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2017, 09:17:41 AM »
MOASS update
--Narok queues look good -
--Look like no voting may happen in most of Luo Nyanza except maybe in Kodiaga prison :)
--Huge turn out in GEMA
--Not impressive turn out in Kalenjin land so far.
--MOASS still looking solid.

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2017, 10:48:58 AM »
Pundit how about the coast and Turkana?
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2017, 10:57:24 AM »
Coast seem on target for on average 30 percent...Turkana around 20

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2017, 11:20:36 AM »
I think the sooner this is over the better. And those who want to boycott work - or boycott life  :) - can enjoy their rights - as the country moves on.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2017, 04:07:38 PM »
Look like turn out in rv is going to be low...now around 65 %

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: MOASS 2017 - the re-run.
« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2017, 06:44:02 PM »
Turn out rv us around 80%