MOAS versus IEBC(Actual)

[RV Pundit]

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Starting from governor race...MOAS predicted about 38 correctly and missed out on 9 - which were races that were tightly contested.

Some of the highlights where MOAS disagreed with opinion pollsters and prevailed.

1) MERU - MOAS predicted on strength of Imenti vote - Kiraitu would prevail.
2) Kajiado - Despite opinion trickster tipping the former governor - MOAS predicted Ole Lenku would wipe the floor.
3) Nairobi - Despite the so called tight race - Kidero was beaten like a luhya isukuti as predicted by MOAS.
4) Bomet - They stop realizing polls - but all previous polls showed Isaac ahead - Isaac got a dog beating and has yet to be seen in public since.
5) Laikipia - Nderitu of Independent won as predicted.
6) Anne Waiguru - beat Martha Karua - which MOAS predicted before any opinion poll was ever done.
7) Ali Korane of Garissa - beat Nathif on the strength of tribal alliance (talamunge) btw Abduwaka and Sigawal(sp).
Lenny Kivuitu(Mbeer) stood no chance against Embu's Wambora.
9) Tharaka governor stood no chance against Meru (Chukas) - Muthomi.
We can go on and on...

Rough MOAS predicted tight races - that were too close to call but we had to make the call anyway

Bungoma   KEN LUSAKA v W WANGAMATI
HomaBay   CYPRIAN AWITI v MAGWANGA
Isiolo   GODANA DOYO v MOHAMMED KUTI
Kirinyaga   ANN WAIGURU V MARTH KARUA
Kitui   D MUSILA V J MALOMBE VC NGILU
Kwale   SMVURYA  V C MWAKWERE v I Chipera
Laikipia   NDERITU MURIITHI v JOSEPH IRUNGU
Lamu   ISAA TIMMAY v FAHIM TWAHIM
Machakos   WAVINYA NDETI v ALFRED MUTUA
Mandera   HASSAN NOOR V ALI ROBA
Marsabit   UKUR YATANI v MUHAMUD ALI
Migori   OCHILLO AYACKO v OKOTH OBADO
TaitaTaveta   T MWANDEGU v J MRUTU v D MWANZO
TanaRiver   GODANA DHAHDO V H DADO V D MUNGATANA
UasinGishu   JACKSON MANDAGO v KIPROTICH BUZEKI
Vihiga   O OTICHILLO v M AKARANG v Y CHANZU
WestPokot   JOHN LENYANGAPUA v SIMON KACHAPIN

The only surprise was Granton Samboja.

Attached is complete comparison btw what MOAS predicted and what IEBC announced.

Jubilee - Moas predicted 27 - they lost 3 - Tana River,Isiolo & Westpokot to ODM,Ind & KANU - and squeezed in a win in Wajir & Mandera - ended up with 25 governors.
ODM - MOAS predicted 11 - they got unlikely win in Tana River, Vihiga and lost Wajir. Ojamong also won against Otuoma. ODM ended up with 13.

[KenyanPlato]

5 of these races will be overturned in a petition
1. Kirinyaga
2. Machakos
3. Kilifi
4. UG
5. Nairobi

petitions are already being filed as we speak.. Then depending on What Nasa decides we may see some activity in Western counties and Nyanza

I did a few data crunching for NASA on the side. I can that NASA has no credibility to claim that they won but I know that they were robbed about 4% of votes that should have gone to their column. The reason of not going to court is that they think that judges wont order new elections when we are most likely going to end up with the similar but close outcome.
Lessons:
Incumbency gives government of the day a lot of leverage
It is very hard to win without Kalenjins or Kikuyus. You got sacrifice everything to get either of the block.
After Nasa Jubilee will rule for another 15 years unless there is a fallout or if NASA decides to go militant on them

[RV Pundit]

The Senate projection.
We got 39 counties right. We predicted Jubilee coalition would win 25; they end up with 28. NASA 22 ended up with 19. It's a rout that makes senate Jubilee stronghold. Governors who won't toe the lie need to understand that. Unlike the previous senate which was 50-50; Jubilee has 10 (before nomination) advantage and so Jubilee controls the lower and upper house.

[RV Pundit]

Kindly share the data. I find your figures wild.

I did a few data crunching for NASA on the side. I can that NASA has no credibility to claim that they won but I know that they were robbed about 4% of votes that should have gone to their column.

[KenyanPlato]

Kindly share the data. I find your figures wild.

I did a few data crunching for NASA on the side. I can that NASA has no credibility to claim that they won but I know that they were robbed about 4% of votes that should have gone to their column.

I do not have access to it. due to security we were not allowed to share or copy the data. The other thing is that you should just interrogate strongholds of Jubilee in central you will be surprised at some of the cooking done.

It was 99.5% on most polling stations and to make it look legit Raila was awarded tokens. The worst case was one place where POs decided to award Raila random 4 votes in every other polling station..This was almost like 2007/2008 no audit can determine who really won. In Nyanza the same shenanigans were carried out by NASA and Jubilee.. The only hope here is to see if petitioners are going to be able to get some of the elections nullified and they should be nullified. Hopefully courts will jail some of these ROs and candidates

Anyway Nasa knew for get go that it was herculean task to beat a determined incumbent using a demoralized base.

By next year most of the coalition partners will be working with Jubilee

[Nefertiti]

Meru had to be top - what a moron

1) MERU - MOAS predicted on strength of Imenti vote - Kiraitu would prevail.

[RV Pundit]

Meru had to be top - what a moron

hehehe yeap considering the snide remarks you and munya made...and the extensive polling damn right

[Nefertiti]

Kindly share the data. I find your figures wild.

I did a few data crunching for NASA on the side. I can that NASA has no credibility to claim that they won but I know that they were robbed about 4% of votes that should have gone to their column.

I do not have access to it. due to security we were not allowed to share or copy the data. The other thing is that you should just interrogate strongholds of Jubilee in central you will be surprised at some of the cooking done.

It was 99.5% on most polling stations and to make it look legit Raila was awarded tokens. The worst case was one place where POs decided to award Raila random 4 votes in every other polling station..This was almost like 2007/2008 no audit can determine who really won. In Nyanza the same shenanigans were carried out by NASA and Jubilee.. The only hope here is to see if petitioners are going to be able to get some of the elections nullified and they should be nullified. Hopefully courts will jail some of these ROs and candidates

Anyway Nasa knew for get go that it was herculean task to beat a determined incumbent using a demoralized base.

By next year most of the coalition partners will be working with Jubilee

Yup - MOAS models stuffing - Pundit is just a quack - scoring dismal 80% even with live live rigging

[KenyanPlato]

Robina,
It is a mess. I am not disappointed because I knew from the get go that this was just a circus and there wont be a resolution. My take is that NASA knew the couldn't win. The GOK didn't trust it's base (Nairobi, Central and some areas at the coast) so what happened was stuffing by GOK to cover for its insecurity. Now we are going to see poor hoodlums getting killed as they try to move out of slums to the CBDs to loot and  create mayhem. I am glad Raila decided earlier on that he didn't want to confront the GOK machinery so I expect this protest to run out of fuel by next weekend. The damage to Judiciary, IEBC and legitimacy of this government will really kill all the gains of the last 15 years.

[Nefertiti]

MOAS - Mother Of All Stuffing

[Omollo]

[KenyanPlato]

Jukwaa MOAS was a pile of shit

http://jukwaa.proboards.com/thread/9574/projections-governor

[gout]

Ngilu and Samboja guy were quite a surprise.

[KenyanPlato]

The reasons why Babu cannot wake from nightmare of 2017, Omollo and his conspirators are still looking for the smoking gun only to turn up a smelly bean.
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001251136/battle-for-numbers-how-jubilee-outplayed-nasa-in-its-own-gamehttps://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001251136/battle-for-numbers-how-jubilee-outplayed-nasa-in-its-own-game

[Kichwa]

Boring.  Who do you really think will read all that crap. Move on already.

[vooke]

Another twirra MOAS

RAO loses final tally by 1.76 million votes approx UK 53.21%  RAO 45.56% Others 1.33% I could be however, Kenya voting patterns predictable

— Pat (@254KEac) July 5, 2017

[Omollo]

The evidence that this was a computer generated election is too overwhelming and has not been debunked in any way.

So this exercise is totally unproductive. It is like debating the "results" of the Azeri Election a day before voting:

[RV Pundit]

Who has the list of mps and counties - that I can use to compare how MOAS performed in parliamentary projection. Also certified final IEBC results per county?

[Omollo]

Let's wait for the Bot to stop awarding and subtracting votes then I will hand you your list. At this rate some may not be MPs given the votes being deducted post declaration.

One Presidential candidate has lost 7000 votes to the bot.

Who has the list of mps and counties - that I can use to compare how MOAS performed in parliamentary projection. Also certified final IEBC results per county?

[GeeMail]

Turns out we hath a self-fulfilling prophet, Nipate.org's very own. Veritas should organize an iSwearing-in party with Sonko's loose change.