Final Final MOAS

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

What's the story with Iteso - have they gone NASA?

Presidential Projections.

Teso has always been ODM.

Iteso are Sabaot more than Luo... in MOAS context. Proof:

Teso North MP - Arthur Odera - URP
Teso South MP - Mary Maase - URP

My query is why Jubilee only scores 7% in Busia where the Iteso are 30% if they lean Jubilee.

I was going by the fact the Busia has an ODM Teso governor.  I think these MPs are oddballs.

[Nefertiti]

What's the story with Iteso - have they gone NASA?

Presidential Projections.

Teso has always been ODM.

Iteso are Sabaot more than Luo... in MOAS context. Proof:

Teso North MP - Arthur Odera - URP
Teso South MP - Mary Maase - URP

My query is why Jubilee only scores 7% in Busia where the Iteso are 30% if they lean Jubilee.

I was going by the fact the Busia has an ODM Teso governor.  I think these MPs are oddballs.

Not really. Ojaamongson sliced off some Luhya votes, plus Luo and Teso to romp home. A majority chunk of the Luhya went UDF (Madvd). The two Teso MPs went Jubilee.

Iteso are mtu yetu type. Otuoma is guaranteed a win because Madvd is in NASA, so he attracts Luhya + Luo who will spurn cheating Ojaamong. Iteso will die with Ojaamong.

[Omollo]

That could probably work if Otuoma were to be in ANC

Not really. Ojaamongson sliced off some Luhya votes, plus Luo and Teso to romp home. A majority chunk of the Luhya went UDF (Madvd). The two Teso MPs went Jubilee.

Iteso are mtu yetu type. Otuoma is guaranteed a win because Madvd is in NASA, so he attracts Luhya + Luo who will spurn cheating Ojaamong. Iteso will die with Ojaamong.

[Nefertiti]

Explain.

That could probably work if Otuoma were to be in ANC

Not really. Ojaamongson sliced off some Luhya votes, plus Luo and Teso to romp home. A majority chunk of the Luhya went UDF (Madvd). The two Teso MPs went Jubilee.

Iteso are mtu yetu type. Otuoma is guaranteed a win because Madvd is in NASA, so he attracts Luhya + Luo who will spurn cheating Ojaamong. Iteso will die with Ojaamong.

[RV Pundit]

MaDVD has near zero influence on Busia luhyas and Iteso. Of all the western - Busia Luhyas (Banyala,Marachi,Samia,marama) is the nearest to Luos' you'll get in Luhyas..culturally and politically  - perhaps apart from Bunyore of Vihiga..you could classify the Luhyas of Busia the same way with Abasuba..only bantu in name!. The Iteso are close to Turkana - and not Sabaot - who are Kalenjin.As Omollo indicates - Iteso have Ojaamong and that is their single interest in the election. I think URP mps fluke through(I bet URP finances helped them)...Iteso would definitely support WSR if Ojaamong wasn't that strong.

Raila got 86% of Busia..Uhur 4%..maDVD maybe 10%...this time round I see Uhuru improving his 4% to 7% ..due to Ababu, Okemo and incumbency (money+prov administration)...max would be 10% for Uhuru..all that effort will count for little and yet Ababu may have to be fixed in some job.

[Nefertiti]

I see. Think I saw somewhere that UDF guy scored big - 30% which is more than half of all Luhya - for Busia governor 2013. Must have been a strong candidate.

[vooke]

What's the story with Iteso - have they gone NASA?

Presidential Projections.

Teso has always been ODM.

Iteso are Sabaot more than Luo... in MOAS context. Proof:

Teso North MP - Arthur Odera - URP
Teso South MP - Mary Maase - URP

My query is why Jubilee only scores 7% in Busia where the Iteso are 30% if they lean Jubilee.

These two were rigged out of ODM and hopped on to the nearest vehicle.

[RV Pundit]

Nobody took these guys seriously -Uhuru 53% - Raila 43% -
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001250136/opinion-poll-puts-uhuru-kenyatta-in-the-lead-with-53pc

[Nefertiti]

Never heard of them... they do seem to have good fundamentals.

Some 9,995 voters across all 47 counties were interviewed. The target sample was 10,000 registered voters and the data had a one per cent margin of error.

The sample was selected using the random, multi-stage stratified method and proportionate population size.

Nobody took these guys seriously -Uhuru 53% - Raila 43% -
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001250136/opinion-poll-puts-uhuru-kenyatta-in-the-lead-with-53pc

[Omollo]

[Nefertiti]

Omollo the hacker yawa. 1-year experience is hardly inspiring.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Omollo the hacker yawa. 1-year experience is hardly inspiring.

1 year is the how old their domain name is.

[Nefertiti]

Only Pundit, vooke and Globalvillager12 think Jubilee is winning. I wonder why.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Only Pundit, vooke and Globalvillager12 think Jubilee is winning. I wonder why.

They might win.  Or not.  But from what I have seen presented here, the justifications have a lot to do with confirmation bias than anything concrete.  They might get it right, but so would a guy throwing a bone and making the same prediction.  People are helplessly partisan.  One is better off just waiting for 8/8.  Less than a week to go.

[Kichwa]

Windy, I do not mind the partisanship-that's politics. What I objected to strenuously was the arrogant attempt by Pundit to declare that his predictions which are as partisan as mine are in fact based on science and math and therefore somehow superior. Bullshit! His guess is as good as mine win or loose.

Only Pundit, vooke and Globalvillager12 think Jubilee is winning. I wonder why.

They might win.  Or not.  But from what I have seen presented here, the justifications have a lot to do with confirmation bias than anything concrete.  They might get it right, but so would a guy throwing a bone and making the same prediction.  People are helplessly partisan.  One is better off just waiting for 8/8.  Less than a week to go.

[vooke]

Windy, I do not mind the partisanship-that's politics. What I objected to strenuously was the arrogant attempt by Pundit to declare that his predictions which are as partisan as mine are in fact based on science and math and therefore somehow superior. Bullshit! His guess is as good as mine win or loose.

Only Pundit, vooke and Globalvillager12 think Jubilee is winning. I wonder why.

They might win.  Or not.  But from what I have seen presented here, the justifications have a lot to do with confirmation bias than anything concrete.  They might get it right, but so would a guy throwing a bone and making the same prediction.  People are helplessly partisan.  One is better off just waiting for 8/8.  Less than a week to go.

Difference is you've never been right.
Pundito may be partisan, but he gets it right all the way to parliament, or misses negligibly

[patel]

Precisely, Omollo you have nailed Kimetrica psyop.
Remember who introduced Hornsby on this site? What was the motive? Am not a big fan of doxxing but since we have reached the end of campaign season I think it's only fair I publish full dosier on Baghdad Bob. Watu washagaa. 

Pundit

Your games are well known to me. You can cheat ALL these people but always know I know your games.

Uhuru is going home. The bribes to Returning Officers will not work. The Remote voting will not work. The ballot stuffing has limited value because even if all the registered voters in Jubilee strongholds vote, they cannot overcome the NASA strongholds.

Your game is based on stuffing or rigging in at least FIVE NASA strongholds. You have already sealed off NEP and Isiolo, and Marsabit even Garissa. But your problem is that those areas have very few votes. You have registered children in Kiambu but have fears that being too close to Nairobi, you may not pull it off. Thus you needed to Kill the person you called contemptuously called "jaluo from Ugenya" so YOU can hack the database and disable the biometrics to allow manual voting with the ID as the only identification. This is supposed to be coordinated so that groups will vote at specific times of one-hour windows when the system will go off without explanation.

Other areas you need by force are:

1. Kisii
2. Nyamira
4. Kwale
5. Kilifi
6. Bungoma
7. Mombasa
8. Tana River
9. Taita- Taveta
10. Lamu
You need 5 of those to win and that is the focus.

Note one thing: Two can play the game. Hakuna mjinga duniani.

[einstein_g]

Charles Hornsby still says 52% Uhuru.

https://www.theelephant.info/future/2017/08/05/the-end-of-the-line-predicting-kenyas-vote-on-august/

[Kichwa]

Ati I have never been right.  In your little world 2013 was the first election ever anywhere in the world.

Windy, I do not mind the partisanship-that's politics. What I objected to strenuously was the arrogant attempt by Pundit to declare that his predictions which are as partisan as mine are in fact based on science and math and therefore somehow superior. Bullshit! His guess is as good as mine win or loose.

Only Pundit, vooke and Globalvillager12 think Jubilee is winning. I wonder why.

They might win.  Or not.  But from what I have seen presented here, the justifications have a lot to do with confirmation bias than anything concrete.  They might get it right, but so would a guy throwing a bone and making the same prediction.  People are helplessly partisan.  One is better off just waiting for 8/8.  Less than a week to go.

[Globalcitizen12]

1. Kiambu Governor - Waititu
2. Nairobi Governor - Kidero
3. Machakos - Wavinya Ndeti
4. Kirinyaga county - Waiguru
5. Kamukunji - Boniface pulls a suprise wins by 34%
6. dagorretti - KJ loses to Again

With that Uhuru will clinch this thing with 52.7 % vs Railas 47%

Raila will challenge the elections lose and move on. 2022 will be Kalonzo vs Mudavadi. Ruto will die around 2020

I pulled this out of my arse. So do not expect any statistical analysis
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