Elog seem to know what they are doing - You just need representative sample.

[RV Pundit]

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In the 2013 presidential elections, for instance, ELOG projection gave Jubilee coalition candidate Uhuru Kenyatta 49.7 per cent of the vote, to 43.4 per cent for his main rival Raila Odinga of the then Cord alliance.

The final results announced by the IEBC gave Mr Kenyatta victory with 50.1 per cent of the vote, to 43.7 for Mr Odinga. This, said ELOG officials, was within the margin of error provided for in the projection. Crucially, however, just a few thousand extra votes within the projected range catapulted President Kenyatta above the crucial 50 per cent absolute majority required to avoid a run-off.

NEUTRAL OBSERVER

ELOG also projected national voter turnout of 85.6 per cent, against the 85.9 reported by IEBC. The data thus stood as validation of the results that Mr Odinga unsuccessfully contested in the Supreme Court, the officials affirmed in response to a query from the press.

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Elog-predict-poll-outcome/1056-4036804-71hk18/index.html

[RV Pundit]

But utaskia 2013 was rigged - when observers who sample many random polling station - found the figures to tally with IEBC.

In the 2013 presidential elections, for instance, ELOG projection gave Jubilee coalition candidate Uhuru Kenyatta 49.7 per cent of the vote, to 43.4 per cent for his main rival Raila Odinga of the then Cord alliance.

The final results announced by the IEBC gave Mr Kenyatta victory with 50.1 per cent of the vote, to 43.7 for Mr Odinga. This, said ELOG officials, was within the margin of error provided for in the projection. Crucially, however, just a few thousand extra votes within the projected range catapulted President Kenyatta above the crucial 50 per cent absolute majority required to avoid a run-off.

NEUTRAL OBSERVER

ELOG also projected national voter turnout of 85.6 per cent, against the 85.9 reported by IEBC. The data thus stood as validation of the results that Mr Odinga unsuccessfully contested in the Supreme Court, the officials affirmed in response to a query from the press.

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Elog-predict-poll-outcome/1056-4036804-71hk18/index.html

[vooke]

But there's a problem. In 2013, with the transmission failing at 30%, there was enough time for anyone who had sampled the results by then to project. If there is no failure in transmission, it's possible by the time ELOG is done with their tabulation, provisional results will have given us the winner. In short, they must work very fast to avoid giving us stale projections

[RV Pundit]

Yeap - if transmission works - we would know the results by around midnight - by 9pm - it should be apparent.

if you follow this link -http://sahanjournal.com/latest-updates-on-kenyan-elections/#.WXxaJ4SGOUk -- you can see how it went.

As of 7 am the following day - Uhuru was leading -

By 7pm - Uhuru was still leading

But there's a problem. In 2013, with the transmission failing at 30%, there was enough time for anyone who had sampled the results by then to project. If there is no failure in transmission, it's possible by the time ELOG is done with their tabulation, provisional results will have given us the winner. In short, they must work very fast to avoid giving us stale projections

[Kichwa]

Some things change, some things remain the same.  Figuring out what has changed and what remains the same is usually not easy and should be done very carefully.

We will not know the answer for sure until after the elections.  However,   we must predict and act accordingly before then and that is what we have been doing and debating since the country hit elections fever.

NASA believes that the issues have changed enough to substantially alter the so called tribal voting patterns of 2013 to its favor. 

NASA also believes that the desire and the will to steal elections by ourutu has not changed but has become more urgent and therefore must be watched very carefully to make sure they do not succeed in subverting the peoples will as they did in 2013 and 2007.

Jubiliee seems to believe that the tribal voting patterns are so strong and will withstand the bread and butter issues which are clearly against them this year.

If ouru loses, it will be because the bread and butter issues were too strong for the tribal sentiments to hold but more importantly, because IEBC was not able to steal for them as in 2013.

Ouruto other alternative to hold on to power even if they lose is military.

Yeap - if transmission works - we would know the results by around midnight - by 9pm - it should be apparent.

if you follow this link -http://sahanjournal.com/latest-updates-on-kenyan-elections/#.WXxaJ4SGOUk -- you can see how it went.

As of 7 am the following day - Uhuru was leading -

By 7pm - Uhuru was still leading

But there's a problem. In 2013, with the transmission failing at 30%, there was enough time for anyone who had sampled the results by then to project. If there is no failure in transmission, it's possible by the time ELOG is done with their tabulation, provisional results will have given us the winner. In short, they must work very fast to avoid giving us stale projections

[vooke]

Some things change, some things remain the same.  Figuring out what has changed and what remains the same is usually not easy and should be done very carefully.

We will not know the answer for sure until after the elections.  However,   we must predict and act accordingly before then and that is what we have been doing and debating since the country hit elections fever.

NASA believes that the issues have changed enough to substantially alter the so called tribal voting patterns of 2013 to its favor. 

NASA also believes that the desire and the will to steal elections by ourutu has not changed but has become more urgent and therefore must be watched very carefully to make sure they do not succeed in subverting the peoples will as they did in 2013 and 2007.

Jubiliee seems to believe that the tribal voting patterns are so strong and will withstand the bread and butter issues which are clearly against them this year.

If ouru loses, it will be because the bread and butter issues were too strong for the tribal sentiments to hold but more importantly, because IEBC was not able to steal for them as in 2013.

Ouruto other alternative to hold on to power even if they lose is military.

Yeap - if transmission works - we would know the results by around midnight - by 9pm - it should be apparent.

if you follow this link -http://sahanjournal.com/latest-updates-on-kenyan-elections/#.WXxaJ4SGOUk -- you can see how it went.

As of 7 am the following day - Uhuru was leading -

By 7pm - Uhuru was still leading

But there's a problem. In 2013, with the transmission failing at 30%, there was enough time for anyone who had sampled the results by then to project. If there is no failure in transmission, it's possible by the time ELOG is done with their tabulation, provisional results will have given us the winner. In short, they must work very fast to avoid giving us stale projections

What if Uhuru wins,
What will it be, tribe trumped issues or rigging?
You wish to have your cake right after eating it.