Pundito, You believe Lusaka is bagging it?

[vooke]

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POLL shows Wambora will win Embu Governor seat at 48.4pc against Kivuti at 26.2pc; BUNGOMA: Lusaka 52pc, Wangamati 31pc. #Ballot2017 pic.twitter.com/2M2eUJ9eZ4

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[RV Pundit]

Interesting.Lusaka is perceived to have delivered - so I am not surprised. But what was the sampling size. Yeah I know it very close but didn't think he can nick it. Lusaka is popular in his area -kiminini,Sirisia, Webuye and mt elgon. Wangamati seem only popular in Kanduyi,Bumula and Kabuchai.  This is bad news for NASA....

Look like we may change MOAS for some governor seats... they are just too many close calls.

[vooke]

Interesting.Lusaka is perceived to have delivered - so I am not surprised. But what was the sampling size. Yeah I know it very close but didn't think he can nick it. Lusaka is popular in his area -kiminini,Sirisia, Webuye and mt elgon. Wangamati seem only popular in Kanduyi,Bumula and Kabuchai.  This is bad news for NASA....

Look like we may change MOAS for some governor seats... they are just too many close calls.

I think the pollster was a tad too generous to him, but for a Jubilee candidate this popular in a NASWA stronghold. It means either he has really delivered or Jubilee has made inroads. I last visited Bungoma and Busia in June and none of these were apparent from my brief interaction with the residents of Bungoma

[RV Pundit]

Yeap I'd have to know how they sampled. But Lusaka and Oparanya in western are perceived and indeed did deliver. Ojamong and Vihiga dude - do not have that same reputation. Wangamati is not politician - so he is really struggling - and financially he is also struggling. Bukusu could suprise NASA --- I think this where we are seeing a lot of undecided. I mean nobody anymore understands where Wetangula is taking folks....so maybe they see Lusaka (Jubilee Sec Gen) and CS Wamalwa - as real alternative. But there is a lot of ODM loud mouths you'll find in Bungoma...esp the lower part (Kanduyi-bumula)..which is where loud mouth Jacob Juma came from.

What is helping Lusaka is that he has mt elgon under lock and key, his kiminini or is kimili, he has Maj Wakula in Sirisia doing damage and seem to have the Tachoni (around Webuye) - although - I think WWW chose Deputy Governor there. Halafu maybe NASA are splitting their vote...former Kanduyi Mp Alfred Kangat  & Stephen Muhoro (of consumer protection)...are also in NASA.

I think the pollster was a tad too generous to him, but for a Jubilee candidate this popular in a NASWA stronghold. It means either he has really delivered or Jubilee has made inroads. I last visited Bungoma and Busia in June and nine of these were apparent from my brief interaction with the residents of Bungoma

[Nefertiti]

Or just maybe your MOAS are mediocre

Interesting.Lusaka is perceived to have delivered - so I am not surprised. But what was the sampling size. Yeah I know it very close but didn't think he can nick it. Lusaka is popular in his area -kiminini,Sirisia, Webuye and mt elgon. Wangamati seem only popular in Kanduyi,Bumula and Kabuchai.  This is bad news for NASA....

Look like we may change MOAS for some governor seats... they are just too many close calls.

[Omollo]

Lusaka is going nowhere and Jubilee will get some Mt. Elgon votes. Take it to the bank.

The polls got it for Turkana but not Bungoma.

The possible surprise will come from Busia where Amos Wako may be floored probably by Omtatah.

[RV Pundit]

Maybe they got everything wrong then? Trust my MOAS.

Lusaka is going nowhere and Jubilee will get some Mt. Elgon votes. Take it to the bank.

The polls got it for Turkana but not Bungoma.

The possible surprise will come from Busia where Amos Wako may be floored probably by Omtatah.

[Omollo]

I was making my suggestions for improvement then you decided it will infringe on the pre-determined results and rejected the suggestions. That proved my case that your MOAS started from the "outcome" down to the factors leading to that. So you adjust the factors to fit the outcome.

A better process would be to let the factors freely give you whatever outcome and you accept it.

For instance there is no way Raila's vote will shrink by 1 -400 % while Uhuru's expands by the same.

Then there are places in RV where you have chosen to ignore all evidence of a shift. To say Raila will get 14% in Bomet and clearly base that not on current events but largely on the 2013 outcome, would make sense, if you were also applying the same to Uhuru! It looks like you have (quite aptly I would say) Double Standards or to be exact two standards: One of Uhuru and a rather bad one for Raila.

A MOAS does not have to disregard all the rules of qualitative research. I would say you have allowed bias to influence and direct your analysis of the data.

Maybe they got everything wrong then? Trust my MOAS.

Lusaka is going nowhere and Jubilee will get some Mt. Elgon votes. Take it to the bank.

The polls got it for Turkana but not Bungoma.

The possible surprise will come from Busia where Amos Wako may be floored probably by Omtatah.

[RV Pundit]

8.8.2017 is 10 days away. Let us see how this goes. I may have one last go to refine the numbers this time...so maybe I'll factor some of your consideration. In Bomet that 14% is slowly evaporating.

I was making my suggestions for improvement then you decided it will infringe on the pre-determined results and rejected the suggestions. That proved my case that your MOAS started from the "outcome" down to the factors leading to that. So you adjust the factors to fit the outcome.

A better process would be to let the factors freely give you whatever outcome and you accept it.

For instance there is no way Raila's vote will shrink by 1 -400 % while Uhuru's expands by the same.

Then there are places in RV where you have chosen to ignore all evidence of a shift. To say Raila will get 14% in Bomet and clearly base that not on current events but largely on the 2013 outcome, would make sense, if you were also applying the same to Uhuru! It looks like you have (quite aptly I would say) Double Standards or to be exact two standards: One of Uhuru and a rather bad one for Raila.

A MOAS does not have to disregard all the rules of qualitative research. I would say you have allowed bias to influence and direct your analysis of the data.

Maybe they got everything wrong then? Trust my MOAS.

Lusaka is going nowhere and Jubilee will get some Mt. Elgon votes. Take it to the bank.

The polls got it for Turkana but not Bungoma.

The possible surprise will come from Busia where Amos Wako may be floored probably by Omtatah.

[Omollo]

Pundit

I was talking to someone very close to Uhuru who I know is in on the rigging plan. He has no idea where I stand and I encourage him to so think. Guess what figure he mentioned after he said "we're winning this in the first round like last time"?

53%

 

[RV Pundit]

He is absolutely right - worse case ni 52%.

Pundit

I was talking to someone very close to Uhuru who I know is in on the rigging plan. He has no idea where I stand and I encourage him to so think. Guess what figure he mentioned after he said "we're winning this in the first round like last time"?

53%

 

[Nefertiti]

Heheh - obviously Omollo means the said fellow had seen the MOAS - read you are a Jubilee propagandist

He is absolutely right - worse case ni 52%.

Pundit

I was talking to someone very close to Uhuru who I know is in on the rigging plan. He has no idea where I stand and I encourage him to so think. Guess what figure he mentioned after he said "we're winning this in the first round like last time"?

53%

 

[RV Pundit]

Why would somebody even think that - MOAS is contemporaneous issues of the moment - otherwise I am here always discussing anything.

Heheh - obviously Omollo means the said fellow had seen the MOAS - read you are a Jubilee propagandist

[Nefertiti]

So you tell yourself. In the off chance RVGEMA turnout declines NASA may have a fighting chance. Otherwise get ready for rigging claims, riots and teargas.

Why would somebody even think that - MOAS is contemporaneous issues of the moment - otherwise I am here always discussing anything.

Heheh - obviously Omollo means the said fellow had seen the MOAS - read you are a Jubilee propagandist