MOAS Elucidation

[einstein_g]

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I'm new to this forum. I'm intrigued by RV Pundit's MOAS.

Pundit, could you expound on the projected effect of the following phenomena:

1) The current govt claims to have to touched many lives during their 4.5 years in power -- 3.5m new Electricity connections, 3m title deeds, 700k inua jamii, free delivery for (a guesstimate of) 1m mothers, NHIF, SGR with fancy stations across Coastal and Ukambani regions (I have a Kamba friend whose NASA-leaning relatives made bank supplying sand from Makueni). NYS, new roads in NEP, Coast (especially) and Ukambani (2000km total), huduma centres, 14% interest rate caps, TVETs, free exams for 1m+ school kids, laptops, uwezo fund (700k youth allegedly)...

What effect do you think that had? Surely some of these people would be swayed to Jubilee's side? UhuRuto seem calculative enough to go for that effect.

2) Kipsigis comprise (I'm guessing) 30% of the Kalenjin vote. Losing a significant chunk of their votes could be semi-catastrophic for jubilee. Is Rutto much of a threat to UhuRuto? Do you suppose appointing Charles Keter (a kipsigis I believe) helped counter Rutto to some extent? Did Sossion's endorsement help Rutto/NASA at all?

3) Don't you think NASA will record higher turnouts given lessons from 2013? Was post-2013 registration friendly to NASA?

4) 12% for Jubilee in Machakos feels a bit low to me given MCC is Jubilee-affiliated. Another Kamba friend from there is a vocal jubilee supporter. She says a lot has changed during the last 4 years.

5) Has the corruption narrative stuck, and will it hurt Jubilee? A friend from Uganda was telling me (from hearsay of course) that he thinks Jubilee's has been by far the most corrupt regime in Kenya's history.

6) 4 governors, 4 senators and 30+ MPs defected to Jubilee. Do you suppose these defectors pulled any numbers to the Jubilee side?

7) Cabinet secretaries -- Jubilee has had a lot of visibility in NEP (Aden, Amina, Duale etc). Do you suppose this helps Jubilee significantly  in NEP? Matiangi, will he pull any Kisii numbers at all?

[Kichwa]

Good Luck-einsteing_g:  Pundit believes Kenyans are voting tribal robots and nothing else matters to them other than the candidate belonging to the "correct tribe" as conveyed to them by  their "tribal leader".

I'm new to this forum. I'm intrigued by RV Pundit's MOAS.

Pundit, could you expound on the projected effect of the following phenomena:

1) The current govt claims to have to touched many lives during their 4.5 years in power -- 3.5m new Electricity connections, 3m title deeds, 700k inua jamii, free delivery for (a guesstimate of) 1m mothers, NHIF, SGR with fancy stations across Coastal and Ukambani regions (I have a Kamba friend whose NASA-leaning relatives made bank supplying sand from Makueni). NYS, new roads in NEP, Coast (especially) and Ukambani (2000km total), huduma centres, 14% interest rate caps, TVETs, free exams for 1m+ school kids, laptops, uwezo fund (700k youth allegedly)...

What effect do you think that had? Surely some of these people would be swayed to Jubilee's side? UhuRuto seem calculative enough to go for that effect.

2) Kipsigis comprise (I'm guessing) 30% of the Kalenjin vote. Losing a significant chunk of their votes could be semi-catastrophic for jubilee. Is Rutto much of a threat to UhuRuto? Do you suppose appointing Charles Keter (a kipsigis I believe) helped counter Rutto to some extent? Did Sossion's endorsement help Rutto/NASA at all?

3) Don't you think NASA will record higher turnouts given lessons from 2013? Was post-2013 registration friendly to NASA?

4) 12% for Jubilee in Machakos feels a bit low to me given MCC is Jubilee-affiliated. Another Kamba friend from there is a vocal jubilee supporter. She says a lot has changed during the last 4 years.

5) Has the corruption narrative stuck, and will it hurt Jubilee? A friend from Uganda was telling me (from hearsay of course) that he thinks Jubilee's has been by far the most corrupt regime in Kenya's history.

6) 4 governors, 4 senators and 30+ MPs defected to Jubilee. Do you suppose these defectors pulled any numbers to the Jubilee side?

7) Cabinet secretaries -- Jubilee has had a lot of visibility in NEP (Aden, Amina, Duale etc). Do you suppose this helps Jubilee significantly  in NEP? Matiangi, will he pull any Kisii numbers at all?

[RV Pundit]

I am too drunkard now but rest assured Moas has carefully considered all those factors.

[RV Pundit]

1) Issues - Corruption & Jubilee track record - matters very little - it actually very hard to measure it's impact - most kenyans take tea (tribe) for breakfast but they would be happy if it went with some bread(issues) - opposition will look for negatives (corruption, tribalism)- Jubilee will enumerate their positives - at end of the day they sort of balance out. NON-ISSUE in my view. Kibaki made that mistake in 2007 - thinking his dev track record would sell - it failed. You have to fix politics- and Uhuru has to really thank Ruto who has not dropped the ball on the political end of things - even as they pursued development.

2)Kipsigis. Kipsigis are 40% of Kalenjin. Isaac Ruto has spend nearly 10B trying to sway them from WSR. It got complicated because WSR himself is a kipsigis. At it apex I think he had managed to convince 1/3 of them - but NASA/Raila is anathema in Kipsigis - so when he rushed headlong to NASA rather than playing it smart like KANU - all that basically evaporated. Now he'll be luckly if he can get 15% (with 3% coming from tea plantation workers) in Bomet, 10% in Kericho, Nakuru and Narok of Kipsigis to vote Raila.

3)Turn out in 2013 was pretty impressive. It helped CORD get 3% more than I projected in 2013 (based on historical turn out). I have increased turn out in coast+turkana -by 10% - coz they had really low turn out which I suspect was due to MRC. That doesn't help NASA that much. In fact I did hypothetically raise turn out of NASA to 100% and still they couldn't beat Uhuru..it just give them 1-2% boost...46% to 48%. So turn out is non-issue if you consider 2013 turn out was truly impressive everywhere except mombasa, kwale, kilifi, turkana and etc. Anybody saying turn out will decide this election is ignorant.

4)Ukambani - Machakos - mm Mutua MCC did chicken out - so Uhuru has nobody campaign for him seriously - he'll get more support than 2013 for sure - but not by much - MOAS has Mutua winning governorship but Uhuru support will be about 12%. I cannot cross-reference this with any data because opinion polls have not broken down beyond their figures "Eastern". I think Kitui - Uhuru will win slightly more - coz Nyenze and Musilia - plus all Jubilee leaning Mps - are battling for Jubilee. In Makueni - they will get some votes - 9% - in my view thanks to having lots of Jubilee Mps and leaders bating for Uhuru. But at end of the day  it is still Kalonzo territory.

5) Defection - it's reflected in Kwale, Kilifi, Kakamega, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Marsabit and Bungoma - where Jubilee has gained 10-20% from 2013. For all that effort - 10-20% - is all Jubilee will get in most of these NASA stronghold coz it takes lot more work to change people minds .I may have to revisit Marsabit and add Jubilee some more votes- coz I think ODM is dead as dodo there - just like it is in Mandera. Isiolo - they are in play - small small. But it pointless - you're talking counties with 70-100k votes in total.

6) NEP - is CLANNISM - forget anything else - just think clan and elders. Watch clan elders. Mandera is Jubilee - it's battle btw Jubilee and NFP-Jubilee friendly party. Garisa is Ogaden -battle btw 3 sub-clans - Abduwak(Duale),Samathawal(Ijara-Yusuf Haji) and Natif-Farah Maalim clan of Daadab/Lagdera. 1 clan backs NASA - 2 clans back Jubilee. roughly you can say Jubilee get 2/3- NASA get 1/3 but when you factor Kamba diaspora & anti-gok sentiments & natif as incumbent governor- due to terrorism - I reduced Jubilee a little from 65% to 60-55%. Wajir is a flip - Degodia are the majority - Governor refused to join Jubilee and remained in NASA --Jubilee got the senator Elmi and some mps - but I think governors are way more powerful than senate or mps - so Ahmed the Wajir Governor will sway.  I may need to check my numbers..but all opinions polls agree that Uhuru is taking NEP by huge margins...seen even 75%! the worse I have seen is 60%. Raila is struggling to get to 25%.I may have final go at MOAS and give Jubilee Wajir too - NASA has huge task in NEP.The same is true in places occupied by somali cousin - borana/gabra - tana river, isiolo, marsabit - Jubilee will win big.

I'm new to this forum. I'm intrigued by RV Pundit's MOAS.

Pundit, could you expound on the projected effect of the following phenomena:

1) The current govt claims to have to touched many lives during their 4.5 years in power -- 3.5m new Electricity connections, 3m title deeds, 700k inua jamii, free delivery for (a guesstimate of) 1m mothers, NHIF, SGR with fancy stations across Coastal and Ukambani regions (I have a Kamba friend whose NASA-leaning relatives made bank supplying sand from Makueni). NYS, new roads in NEP, Coast (especially) and Ukambani (2000km total), huduma centres, 14% interest rate caps, TVETs, free exams for 1m+ school kids, laptops, uwezo fund (700k youth allegedly)...

What effect do you think that had? Surely some of these people would be swayed to Jubilee's side? UhuRuto seem calculative enough to go for that effect.

2) Kipsigis comprise (I'm guessing) 30% of the Kalenjin vote. Losing a significant chunk of their votes could be semi-catastrophic for jubilee. Is Rutto much of a threat to UhuRuto? Do you suppose appointing Charles Keter (a kipsigis I believe) helped counter Rutto to some extent? Did Sossion's endorsement help Rutto/NASA at all?

3) Don't you think NASA will record higher turnouts given lessons from 2013? Was post-2013 registration friendly to NASA?

4) 12% for Jubilee in Machakos feels a bit low to me given MCC is Jubilee-affiliated. Another Kamba friend from there is a vocal jubilee supporter. She says a lot has changed during the last 4 years.

5) Has the corruption narrative stuck, and will it hurt Jubilee? A friend from Uganda was telling me (from hearsay of course) that he thinks Jubilee's has been by far the most corrupt regime in Kenya's history.

6) 4 governors, 4 senators and 30+ MPs defected to Jubilee. Do you suppose these defectors pulled any numbers to the Jubilee side?

7) Cabinet secretaries -- Jubilee has had a lot of visibility in NEP (Aden, Amina, Duale etc). Do you suppose this helps Jubilee significantly  in NEP? Matiangi, will he pull any Kisii numbers at all?

[RV Pundit]

And I hope you're looking at the final MOAS...will do small changes - kericho-NASA should be 10% or about - wajir - Jubilee takes it - Marsabit/Isoilo - small increase in Jubilee. Kajiado - NASA small increases. Also Tranzoia is increasingly looking Jubilee than NASA - coz 1/3 of bukusu are pro-Jubilee.

[einstein_g]

Does it make sense to look at things simplistically this way:

1) 2013 was 50.51 Jubilee, 43.7 Cord, 3.96 Amani

2) Cord + Amani = 47.66

3) Rutto convinces 15% of Kipsigis to vote Nasa. Assuming 44% of Jubilee's 50.51 came from GEMA + Kalenjin, and Kalenjin was 25% of that (i.e 11%), that's 0.6% (i.e 11% * 0.4 * 0.15).

NASA total is now 48.2 and Jubilee goes down to 49.9

4) Jubilee manages to get a 10% increase in 1/3 of Cord's voter base (2/3 can't be swayed).
1/3 of 45% is 15%. 10% of 15% is 1.5%.

Jubilee total is 51.4%, NASA is 46.7%

5) Fringe candidates (Kenneth, Karua, Dida, Kiyiapi) got a lot of votes last time, around 1.7%. I doubt that will happen this time. Kenneth and Karua got 1% total. Aukot and Dida will at best get 0.7%.

We're now looking at Jubilee 52%, Nasa 47%.

6) Nasa might get 1% bump from registration/turnout increase.

[RV Pundit]

Does it make sense to look at things simplistically this way:

1) 2013 was 50.51 Jubilee, 43.7 Cord, 3.96 Amani

2) Cord + Amani = 47.66

3) Rutto convinces 15% of Kipsigis to vote Nasa. Assuming 44% of Jubilee's 50.51 came from GEMA + Kalenjin, and Kalenjin was 25% of that (i.e 11%), that's 0.6% (i.e 11% * 0.4 * 0.15).

NASA total is now 48.2 and Jubilee goes down to 49.9

4) Jubilee manages to get a 10% increase in 1/3 of Cord's voter base (2/3 can't be swayed).
1/3 of 45% is 15%. 10% of 15% is 1.5%.

Jubilee total is 51.4%, NASA is 46.7%

5) Fringe candidates (Kenneth, Karua, Dida, Kiyiapi) got a lot of votes last time, around 1.7%. I doubt that will happen this time. Kenneth and Karua got 1% total. Aukot and Dida will at best get 0.7%.

We're now looking at Jubilee 52%, Nasa 47%.

6) Nasa might get 1% bump from registration/turnout increase.

make sense.just remember MaDvd amani was coalition with wamalwa bukusu nfk..which gave maDvd 30% of bgm n 12% of tranzoia...all those seem headed to Jubilee. Also vibe am getting as kipsigis myself is that 15% is evaporating fast.. don't know why.. maybe Kisumu riots or mistreating of wsr.Lets watch the last polls but NASa range is 45_48 and Jubilee 51_54... margin of errorwise.

[Nefertiti]

Explain Nairobi - how does Uhuru manage 47%?

[RV Pundit]

Last time he had 46% - I think he will add 1-2% - which is a reflection of national gain he has made from 51% to 53%. Tribally I expect him to carry 30% from kikuyus; another 5% from GEMA(meru+embu); plus most of Somali+Kalenjin votes; then he'll get his fair share of the others (5%). Western communities btw I am told are moving women - so expect a lot of luo+luhyas to be disenfranchised coz of fear of violence in slums.

Explain Nairobi - how does Uhuru manage 47%?

[Nefertiti]

Well - that seems like Uhuru's best case scenario as Raila starts at 50%. Ambitho says it's 51-41% so you are saying Uhuru scores the entire 6% undecided. Tough luck - Ipsos & TIFA predict much worse for Uhuru - even Sonko is struggling despite his Kamba + urban-poor advantage.

Last time he had 46% - I think he will add 1-2% - which is a reflection of national gain he has made from 51% to 53%. Tribally I expect him to carry 30% from kikuyus; another 5% from GEMA(meru+embu); plus most of Somali+Kalenjin votes; then he'll get his fair share of the others (5%). Western communities btw I am told are moving women - so expect a lot of luo+luhyas to be disenfranchised coz of fear of violence in slums.

Explain Nairobi - how does Uhuru manage 47%?

[RV Pundit]

Maybe it would be helpful if you can dig out 2013 polls for Nairobi and we can start from there.Nairobi is hard to sample.

Well - that seems like Uhuru's best case scenario as Raila starts at 50%. Ambitho says it's 51-41% so you are saying Uhuru scores the entire 6% undecided. Tough luck - Ipsos & TIFA predict much worse for Uhuru - even Sonko is struggling despite his Kamba + urban-poor advantage.

[einstein_g]

"A recent survey by an electoral observation group, African Electoral Observation Group, shows that at least 89% of the registered voters will cast their ballot on August 8." Not sure how legit these guys are though.

https://citizentv.co.ke/news/uhuru-to-win-august-poll-in-round-one-electoral-observation-body-survey-167722/

[RV Pundit]

Possible. The six ballots has added more mix. everyone has something to vote for.

"A recent survey by an electoral observation group, African Electoral Observation Group, shows that at least 89% of the registered voters will cast their ballot on August 8." Not sure how legit these guys are though.

https://citizentv.co.ke/news/uhuru-to-win-august-poll-in-round-one-electoral-observation-body-survey-167722/

[RV Pundit]

Robina - remember 2013 - Puakal had his silver nate moment where he aggregated polls - Nairobi 60%(CORD); Uhuru(40%) - we know that was rubbish in the end.
http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=23886

Remember these - final polls - on 26th of FEB
http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=23458
ROUND 1
Strategic Research: Raila (45.7%) - Uhuru (43.8%)
Consumer Insight: Raila (46.8%)   - Uhuru (44.3%)   
Infotrak: Raila (46%) - Uhuru (44.5)

RUNOFF
Strategic Research: Raila (51.7%) - Uhuru (45.7%)
Consumer Insight: Raila (50.6%)   - Uhuru (46.3%)   
Infotrak: Raila (49.5%) - Uhuru (47.2%)

[RV Pundit]

And Robina you might want to read my take on 2013 pollsters
http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=25472&p=194086&hilit=Final+MOAS#p194086

Synovate in an desperate attempt to save their reputation..claims they could have got it right were it not for higher turn out..and heck..last minute (i guess seconds before casting the balot) decision (forget they released polls with 5 days to go)..and ole Kiyiapi getting less than they thought.

But really?

Sample what they told us.

In Central.

Uhuru would get max of 88%...most of them had Uhuru at 82%....in January some had Uhuru at 52% and 57%.

And what did UHuru get..Plain OBVIOUS 95%!

In RV...Once again they got it wrong. I think figures will come down to MOAS 80-83% versus 11-14% and some few for rest.

Eastern...they all claimed except strategic ..that CORD would win by 55%...with Jubilee getting 40% or under...and final result is 50-50%!

Nairobi was even more hilarious....they claimed CORD would get 55%..with Jubilee at 35%!!!!!!! final results was 48% versus 46%!

NEP was 50-50% for most except Angela's who gave Raila 60-70%....my bet is Jubilee won with about 55% against 45%.

They seem to have gotten only Western..maybe COAST and Nyanza.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

"A recent survey by an electoral observation group, African Electoral Observation Group, shows that at least 89% of the registered voters will cast their ballot on August 8." Not sure how legit these guys are though.

https://citizentv.co.ke/news/uhuru-to-win-august-poll-in-round-one-electoral-observation-body-survey-167722/

Any turnouts approaching 90% are highly suspect in my opinion.

[Kichwa]

Pundit-there is nothing scientific you have stated below.  All you are doing is speculating/opining.   There are several other plausible speculative/opinions/explanations about the phenomenon's you have described which are not tribal based.

In Kenya we are  cultured into giving tribal explanations to almost everything.  Its like the saying that "if a hammer is the only tool you have, everything looks like a nail".  Kenyans can swear to be able to use tribe to explain anything including predicting a persons character purely based on the subjects tribe even before they meet the individual. Even in the US, Kenyans are never satisfied with your first name.  You can almost see them stereotype you as tell them your last name by nodding knowingly.   Even in marriage, they will advise  you NOT to or encourage you to  marry a woman/man from a certain tribe because they believe very strongly that the tribe of your spouse  will determine the viability/nature of your marriage. They are loaded with examples and evidence which are carefully cherry picked to buttress their point and I bet they can produce a MOAS to make their point  if they have the time and the mind of Pundit.

1) Issues - Corruption & Jubilee track record - matters very little - it actually very hard to measure it's impact - most kenyans take tea (tribe) for breakfast but they would be happy if it went with some bread(issues) - opposition will look for negatives (corruption, tribalism)- Jubilee will enumerate their positives - at end of the day they sort of balance out. NON-ISSUE in my view. Kibaki made that mistake in 2007 - thinking his dev track record would sell - it failed. You have to fix politics- and Uhuru has to really thank Ruto who has not dropped the ball on the political end of things - even as they pursued development.

2)Kipsigis. Kipsigis are 40% of Kalenjin. Isaac Ruto has spend nearly 10B trying to sway them from WSR. It got complicated because WSR himself is a kipsigis. At it apex I think he had managed to convince 1/3 of them - but NASA/Raila is anathema in Kipsigis - so when he rushed headlong to NASA rather than playing it smart like KANU - all that basically evaporated. Now he'll be luckly if he can get 15% (with 3% coming from tea plantation workers) in Bomet, 10% in Kericho, Nakuru and Narok of Kipsigis to vote Raila.

3)Turn out in 2013 was pretty impressive. It helped CORD get 3% more than I projected in 2013 (based on historical turn out). I have increased turn out in coast+turkana -by 10% - coz they had really low turn out which I suspect was due to MRC. That doesn't help NASA that much. In fact I did hypothetically raise turn out of NASA to 100% and still they couldn't beat Uhuru..it just give them 1-2% boost...46% to 48%. So turn out is non-issue if you consider 2013 turn out was truly impressive everywhere except mombasa, kwale, kilifi, turkana and etc. Anybody saying turn out will decide this election is ignorant.

4)Ukambani - Machakos - mm Mutua MCC did chicken out - so Uhuru has nobody campaign for him seriously - he'll get more support than 2013 for sure - but not by much - MOAS has Mutua winning governorship but Uhuru support will be about 12%. I cannot cross-reference this with any data because opinion polls have not broken down beyond their figures "Eastern". I think Kitui - Uhuru will win slightly more - coz Nyenze and Musilia - plus all Jubilee leaning Mps - are battling for Jubilee. In Makueni - they will get some votes - 9% - in my view thanks to having lots of Jubilee Mps and leaders bating for Uhuru. But at end of the day  it is still Kalonzo territory.

5) Defection - it's reflected in Kwale, Kilifi, Kakamega, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Marsabit and Bungoma - where Jubilee has gained 10-20% from 2013. For all that effort - 10-20% - is all Jubilee will get in most of these NASA stronghold coz it takes lot more work to change people minds .I may have to revisit Marsabit and add Jubilee some more votes- coz I think ODM is dead as dodo there - just like it is in Mandera. Isiolo - they are in play - small small. But it pointless - you're talking counties with 70-100k votes in total.

6) NEP - is CLANNISM - forget anything else - just think clan and elders. Watch clan elders. Mandera is Jubilee - it's battle btw Jubilee and NFP-Jubilee friendly party. Garisa is Ogaden -battle btw 3 sub-clans - Abduwak(Duale),Samathawal(Ijara-Yusuf Haji) and Natif-Farah Maalim clan of Daadab/Lagdera. 1 clan backs NASA - 2 clans back Jubilee. roughly you can say Jubilee get 2/3- NASA get 1/3 but when you factor Kamba diaspora & anti-gok sentiments & natif as incumbent governor- due to terrorism - I reduced Jubilee a little from 65% to 60-55%. Wajir is a flip - Degodia are the majority - Governor refused to join Jubilee and remained in NASA --Jubilee got the senator Elmi and some mps - but I think governors are way more powerful than senate or mps - so Ahmed the Wajir Governor will sway.  I may need to check my numbers..but all opinions polls agree that Uhuru is taking NEP by huge margins...seen even 75%! the worse I have seen is 60%. Raila is struggling to get to 25%.I may have final go at MOAS and give Jubilee Wajir too - NASA has huge task in NEP.The same is true in places occupied by somali cousin - borana/gabra - tana river, isiolo, marsabit - Jubilee will win big.

I'm new to this forum. I'm intrigued by RV Pundit's MOAS.

Pundit, could you expound on the projected effect of the following phenomena:

1) The current govt claims to have to touched many lives during their 4.5 years in power -- 3.5m new Electricity connections, 3m title deeds, 700k inua jamii, free delivery for (a guesstimate of) 1m mothers, NHIF, SGR with fancy stations across Coastal and Ukambani regions (I have a Kamba friend whose NASA-leaning relatives made bank supplying sand from Makueni). NYS, new roads in NEP, Coast (especially) and Ukambani (2000km total), huduma centres, 14% interest rate caps, TVETs, free exams for 1m+ school kids, laptops, uwezo fund (700k youth allegedly)...

What effect do you think that had? Surely some of these people would be swayed to Jubilee's side? UhuRuto seem calculative enough to go for that effect.

2) Kipsigis comprise (I'm guessing) 30% of the Kalenjin vote. Losing a significant chunk of their votes could be semi-catastrophic for jubilee. Is Rutto much of a threat to UhuRuto? Do you suppose appointing Charles Keter (a kipsigis I believe) helped counter Rutto to some extent? Did Sossion's endorsement help Rutto/NASA at all?

3) Don't you think NASA will record higher turnouts given lessons from 2013? Was post-2013 registration friendly to NASA?

4) 12% for Jubilee in Machakos feels a bit low to me given MCC is Jubilee-affiliated. Another Kamba friend from there is a vocal jubilee supporter. She says a lot has changed during the last 4 years.

5) Has the corruption narrative stuck, and will it hurt Jubilee? A friend from Uganda was telling me (from hearsay of course) that he thinks Jubilee's has been by far the most corrupt regime in Kenya's history.

6) 4 governors, 4 senators and 30+ MPs defected to Jubilee. Do you suppose these defectors pulled any numbers to the Jubilee side?

7) Cabinet secretaries -- Jubilee has had a lot of visibility in NEP (Aden, Amina, Duale etc). Do you suppose this helps Jubilee significantly  in NEP? Matiangi, will he pull any Kisii numbers at all?