Homeboy voting Vs. Tribal voting

[Kichwa]

Robina: 2022 will be very different and MOAS will be completely irrelevant because its based on Raila, vs. Ouruto tribal arithmetic 0f 2013.  Even if Ruto were to run in 2022 and pick a running mate from central, nobody seriously think he will automatically inherit ouru's GEMA votes. Ruto cannot even guarantee himself the total Kalenjin vote.  On the NASA side, if Raila steps aside in 2022 as expected, Kalonzo cannot guarantee himself the 2017 NASA tribal coalition votes.  "other factors" will play a major role in shaping the 2022 than the tribal votes.  Of course, after the 2022 elections one can always put together a tribal narrative painting a picture/table/bar chart etc  depicting a tribal pattern of voting but that pattern will be unique to 2022 and  will not be useful to predict the 2027 elections. The so called "other factors"  will become more reliable in the near future for predicting presidential elections than tribes.

Kichwa's theory that the tribe will crumble post-Uhuru and -Raila is the primary reason I will be voting NASA for PORK. The Jubilee lineup - run meticulously by Ruto - is based purely on ethnic dealing. The NASA plan of Kalonzo taking over in 2022 will be dismissed if Raila wins. I calculate that a NASA win would upend the tribal arrangements in both camps :- Ruto goes back to the drawing board as Isaac and Gideon descend on him; Kalonzo eats humble pie as both the power sharing and handover fail to materialize. A NASA victory would be a disruption of tribal voting for the better. Now 2022 would be interesting. It feels like a fantasy sometimes.

[Nefertiti]

Yes Kichwa. The tribe factor will lose weight progressively any which way. I am basing my choice on the shorter path. My childhood bff used to say - when after the news broadcast the channel overlooked the weather forecast - that tomorrow there would be no weather. That's the MOAS narrative.

[Kadame5]

Robina, I think you are the free-est spirit on this board. You truly have no loyalties. Kudoz.

[Nefertiti]

 

Robina, I think you are the free-est spirit on this board. You truly have no loyalties. Kudoz.

[vooke]

Robina: 2022 will be very different and MOAS will be completely irrelevant because its based on Raila, vs. Ouruto tribal arithmetic 0f 2013.  Even if Ruto were to run in 2022 and pick a running mate from central, nobody seriously think he will automatically inherit ouru's GEMA votes. Ruto cannot even guarantee himself the total Kalenjin vote.  On the NASA side, if Raila steps aside in 2022 as expected, Kalonzo cannot guarantee himself the 2017 NASA tribal coalition votes.  "other factors" will play a major role in shaping the 2022 than the tribal votes.  Of course, after the 2022 elections one can always put together a tribal narrative painting a picture/table/bar chart etc  depicting a tribal pattern of voting but that pattern will be unique to 2022 and  will not be useful to predict the 2027 elections. The so called "other factors"  will become more reliable in the near future for predicting presidential elections than tribes.

Kichwa's theory that the tribe will crumble post-Uhuru and -Raila is the primary reason I will be voting NASA for PORK. The Jubilee lineup - run meticulously by Ruto - is based purely on ethnic dealing. The NASA plan of Kalonzo taking over in 2022 will be dismissed if Raila wins. I calculate that a NASA win would upend the tribal arrangements in both camps :- Ruto goes back to the drawing board as Isaac and Gideon descend on him; Kalonzo eats humble pie as both the power sharing and handover fail to materialize. A NASA victory would be a disruption of tribal voting for the better. Now 2022 would be interesting. It feels like a fantasy sometimes.

There will be tribal formations in 2022 just as are now.

In 2002, Tribe was King. Tribal chiefs in Kanu bolted and the cake crumbled.
In 2007, Kalonzo stuck with his Kambas
In 2013, MaDVD ran with a serious chunk of Luhyas
In 2017, Babu has both Kalonzo's 2007  and MaDVD's 2013 chunk
In 2022, inability (if at all) of Ruto to marshal his bloc &/ Mt Kenya's failure to rally behind one won't make it less tribal; it'll only mean tribes will revolve around others on top of the current if not totally on others.

Tribes are not individuals, tribes rally around individuals, around their own

[Kichwa]

Kenya is made up of tribes and therefore there will always be an identifiable tribal pattern if you look for it specifically.  What we are talking about is that there is no tribal formula that you can use to predict future elections.  The  tribal  voting patterns was different for 2002, 2005, 2007 , 2010 and 2013.

Robina: 2022 will be very different and MOAS will be completely irrelevant because its based on Raila, vs. Ouruto tribal arithmetic 0f 2013.  Even if Ruto were to run in 2022 and pick a running mate from central, nobody seriously think he will automatically inherit ouru's GEMA votes. Ruto cannot even guarantee himself the total Kalenjin vote.  On the NASA side, if Raila steps aside in 2022 as expected, Kalonzo cannot guarantee himself the 2017 NASA tribal coalition votes.  "other factors" will play a major role in shaping the 2022 than the tribal votes.  Of course, after the 2022 elections one can always put together a tribal narrative painting a picture/table/bar chart etc  depicting a tribal pattern of voting but that pattern will be unique to 2022 and  will not be useful to predict the 2027 elections. The so called "other factors"  will become more reliable in the near future for predicting presidential elections than tribes.

Kichwa's theory that the tribe will crumble post-Uhuru and -Raila is the primary reason I will be voting NASA for PORK. The Jubilee lineup - run meticulously by Ruto - is based purely on ethnic dealing. The NASA plan of Kalonzo taking over in 2022 will be dismissed if Raila wins. I calculate that a NASA win would upend the tribal arrangements in both camps :- Ruto goes back to the drawing board as Isaac and Gideon descend on him; Kalonzo eats humble pie as both the power sharing and handover fail to materialize. A NASA victory would be a disruption of tribal voting for the better. Now 2022 would be interesting. It feels like a fantasy sometimes.

There will be tribal formations in 2022 just as are now.

In 2002, Tribe was King. Tribal chiefs in Kanu bolted and the cake crumbled.
In 2007, Kalonzo stuck with his Kambas
In 2013, MaDVD ran with a serious chunk of Luhyas
In 2017, Babu has both Kalonzo's 2007  and MaDVD's 2013 chunk
In 2022, inability (if at all) of Ruto to marshal his bloc &/ Mt Kenya's failure to rally behind one won't make it less tribal; it'll only mean tribes will revolve around others on top of the current if not totally on others.

Tribes are not individuals, tribes rally around individuals, around their own

[vooke]

Kenya is made up of tribes and therefore there will always be an identifiable tribal pattern if you look for it specifically.  What we are talking about is that there is no tribal formula that you can use to predict future elections.  The  tribal  voting patterns was different for 2002, 2005, 2007 , 2010 and 2013.

Robina: 2022 will be very different and MOAS will be completely irrelevant because its based on Raila, vs. Ouruto tribal arithmetic 0f 2013.  Even if Ruto were to run in 2022 and pick a running mate from central, nobody seriously think he will automatically inherit ouru's GEMA votes. Ruto cannot even guarantee himself the total Kalenjin vote.  On the NASA side, if Raila steps aside in 2022 as expected, Kalonzo cannot guarantee himself the 2017 NASA tribal coalition votes.  "other factors" will play a major role in shaping the 2022 than the tribal votes.  Of course, after the 2022 elections one can always put together a tribal narrative painting a picture/table/bar chart etc  depicting a tribal pattern of voting but that pattern will be unique to 2022 and  will not be useful to predict the 2027 elections. The so called "other factors"  will become more reliable in the near future for predicting presidential elections than tribes.

Kichwa's theory that the tribe will crumble post-Uhuru and -Raila is the primary reason I will be voting NASA for PORK. The Jubilee lineup - run meticulously by Ruto - is based purely on ethnic dealing. The NASA plan of Kalonzo taking over in 2022 will be dismissed if Raila wins. I calculate that a NASA win would upend the tribal arrangements in both camps :- Ruto goes back to the drawing board as Isaac and Gideon descend on him; Kalonzo eats humble pie as both the power sharing and handover fail to materialize. A NASA victory would be a disruption of tribal voting for the better. Now 2022 would be interesting. It feels like a fantasy sometimes.

There will be tribal formations in 2022 just as are now.

In 2002, Tribe was King. Tribal chiefs in Kanu bolted and the cake crumbled.
In 2007, Kalonzo stuck with his Kambas
In 2013, MaDVD ran with a serious chunk of Luhyas
In 2017, Babu has both Kalonzo's 2007  and MaDVD's 2013 chunk
In 2022, inability (if at all) of Ruto to marshal his bloc &/ Mt Kenya's failure to rally behind one won't make it less tribal; it'll only mean tribes will revolve around others on top of the current if not totally on others.

Tribes are not individuals, tribes rally around individuals, around their own

1. You don't look for obvious stuff
2. That's a wish, I wish there won't but I know there will
3. Your inability to predict election patterns  based on tribe doesn't mean they don't exist

What ails you, our predictably tribal patterns?

[Kichwa]

On Jubilee's side, only the kikuyu vote may hold as in 2013. The rest, including the GEMA and Kalenjin vote may change significantly enough to deny Ouru victory which was once bailed as assured by pundito. Ouruto supporters cling to the tribal voting theory because that is their only hope. If the 2013 tribal voting pattern crumbles then they loose. The last two weeks are very dangerous for them because huge votes from a once considered stronghold may move.

[RV Pundit]

You never tire. Hope truly springs eternal. We had the same same conversation until the eve of 2013 when you lost.

On Jubilee's side, only the kikuyu vote may hold as in 2013. The rest, including the GEMA and Kalenjin vote may change significantly enough to deny Ouru victory which was once bailed as assured by pundito. Ouruto supporters cling to the tribal voting theory because that is their only hope. If the 2013 tribal voting pattern crumbles then they loose. The last two weeks are very dangerous for them because huge votes from a once considered stronghold may move.

[vooke]

On Jubilee's side, only the kikuyu vote may hold as in 2013. The rest, including the GEMA and Kalenjin vote may change significantly enough to deny Ouru victory which was once bailed as assured by pundito. Ouruto supporters cling to the tribal voting theory because that is their only hope. If the 2013 tribal voting pattern crumbles then they loose. The last two weeks are very dangerous for them because huge votes from a once considered stronghold may move.

It's quite clear the homeboy voting nickname is just an utopia you've created to run away from our tribal reality.

What you miss is that in 2022, Tribe may land a Luo in State House.
So bitterness because it is now working against you is not exactly wise.

Tribe helped Moi in 92 and 97 before taking him (his project) in 2002