Pundit - Munya leading Meru governor race

[Nefertiti]

• Tweet

This doesn't look good for your MOAS. Kiraitu despite his huge Imenti (50%) is still trailing Munya 3 weeks to the elections. While Munya sweeps Tigania inspite of Kilemi Mwiria.

Kisii Governor James Ongwae would retain his seat if elections were held today, a survey by Infotrak Research and Consulting firm has shown.

The ODM candidate has a commanding lead of 60.1 per cent while his Jubilee rival Chris Obure trails with a distant 16.9 per cent.

SUPPORT
In Meru, Governor Peter Munya of the Party for National Unity leads with 42 per cent while Senator Kiraitu Murungi has 40.7 per cent.

In Kajiado, former Interior CS Joseph ole Lenku (Jubilee) with a 41 per cent support has an uphill task to bridge the gap between him and incumbent David Nkedianye (ODM) who leads with 52.7 per cent.

http://www.nation.co.ke/counties/meru/Kiraitu-narrows-gap-on-Munya-in-Infotrack-poll/1183302-4026550-jywcvy/index.html

[Nefertiti]

In Kajiado Ole Lenku is trailing Nkedianye 52-41%...

[RV Pundit]

Moas is fine.kiraitu has caught up with munya.Few months ago he was in 20s.As for Kajiado I still think ole lenku will take this..death of nkaissery has robbed jubilee some advantage.Opinion polls are only reliable in homegenous counties where one tribe say are 80%  of the area and there isn't much sub-tribal configurations.MOAS marking scheme will be IEBC results.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit,  my point is that your subtribe narrative doesn't make sense. Pride is overriding clannism. Munya's Tigania is 20% while Kiraitu's is 50%... the latter should sleepwalk to victory. Same as ole Lenku's huge Orokiteng' yet he trails Nkedianye. And the poll was done before Nkaissery heart attack.

[RV Pundit]

Let's talk on 9.9.You see unless pollster deliberately stratified these polls by sub tribe.

Pundit,  my point is that your subtribe narrative doesn't make sense. Pride is overriding clannism. Munya's Tigania is 20% while Kiraitu's is 50%... the latter should sleepwalk to victory. Same as ole Lenku's huge Orokiteng' yet he trails Nkedianye. And the poll was done before Nkaissery heart attack.

[Kichwa]

Robina:  It's the same story all the time.  When the polls correlate with MOAS then Pundit will post/cite them, of course with a disclaimer that he does not believe in them.  However, when the polls contradict the MOAS he goes into a diatribe against them. 

Pundit,  my point is that your subtribe narrative doesn't make sense. Pride is overriding clannism. Munya's Tigania is 20% while Kiraitu's is 50%... the latter should sleepwalk to victory. Same as ole Lenku's huge Orokiteng' yet he trails Nkedianye. And the poll was done before Nkaissery heart attack.

[RV Pundit]

Robina:  It's the same story all the time.  When the polls correlate with MOAS then Pundit will post/cite them, of course with a disclaimer that he does not believe in them.  However, when the polls contradict the MOAS he goes into a diatribe against them. 

Pundit,  my point is that your subtribe narrative doesn't make sense. Pride is overriding clannism. Munya's Tigania is 20% while Kiraitu's is 50%... the latter should sleepwalk to victory. Same as ole Lenku's huge Orokiteng' yet he trails Nkedianye. And the poll was done before Nkaissery heart attack.

i oppose or support anything with what I think are good reason...and I am always willing to accept facts n change my position.

[Kichwa]

Yeah Right!!  You still support Ouruto despite the many "good reasons" that are not only glaring but articulated on this forum.   

Robina:  It's the same story all the time.  When the polls correlate with MOAS then Pundit will post/cite them, of course with a disclaimer that he does not believe in them.  However, when the polls contradict the MOAS he goes into a diatribe against them. 

Pundit,  my point is that your subtribe narrative doesn't make sense. Pride is overriding clannism. Munya's Tigania is 20% while Kiraitu's is 50%... the latter should sleepwalk to victory. Same as ole Lenku's huge Orokiteng' yet he trails Nkedianye. And the poll was done before Nkaissery heart attack.

i oppose or support anything with what I think are good reason...and I am always willing to accept facts n change my position.

[Omollo]

When you have the result you want and then seek "evidence" to support it... what happens?

In Law Enforcement and the Justice system, it leads to mega miscarriage of justice! In Scholarship it leads to academic fraud.

I will let Moon Ki help me with what happens in Democratic Electoral Contests...

[RV Pundit]

Again whether Moas is better than opinion will proven soon.Those who doubted Moas before have been left with eggs on their face.Be here on 9th.

[Kichwa]

Our point is that there is no difference between MOAS and any partisan opinion without the "mathematical gimmicks" that Jubilee  will win.  Even if Jubilee were to win, it will not be because of MOAS.   The numbers you are using are based on so many assumptions and on a rigged election.  MOAS is only remotely relevant because you have the same candidates as in 2013.  Even if the running mates of the 2013 candidates changed, MOAS would be completely irrelevant.  What is so scientific about that. 

Again whether Moas is better than opinion will proven soon.Those who doubted Moas before have been left with eggs on their face.Be here on 9th.

[RV Pundit]

Jubilee will rig mps,Senate, gov bla de bla.The marking scheme is 9th and 28 days from then if court validate or invalidate the results.Your stupidity is nauseating.How can Moas predict rigging.Lets us agree on some bare minimum basics...don't be like Omollo who shift goal posts every minute.I have put my numbers down for MP,women,Senate, governor and pork...my best guestimate of how this will unfold..based on several reason.Ask me why I have put 11 or 29 somewhere.For instance in 2013 we had arguments but I scored so many bull eyes I only missed Western Kenya..luhyas..and got beaten by tum out.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit is a URP insider who knows exactly how rigging will go down - Mandera, Lamu, etc.

[Kichwa]

I reject the whole premise of MOAS because it purports to be able to determine how people are going to vote before they vote. This is NOT based on scientific poll taking but based on their tribe and how they voted in 2013.  The unacceptable  assumption here is that, if you know the tribe of a Kenyan, and the tribe of the candidate, then you can predict with high level of certainty how all other Kenyan tribes will vote.  That maybe true to the extent that the voter and the candidate are from the same tribe. However, you cannot say the same if the voter and the candidate are not from the same tribe. The only regions the candidates can take for granted are luo nyanza and central province. The candidates seem to agree with me and are campaigning hard all over Kenya including Kalenjin Rift Valley and Kamba Eastern province where the DP candidates hail from.

Jubilee will rig mps,Senate, gov bla de bla.The marking scheme is 9th and 28 days from then if court validate or invalidate the results.Your stupidity is nauseating.How can Moas predict rigging.Lets us agree on some bare minimum basics...don't be like Omollo who shift goal posts every minute.I have put my numbers down for MP,women,Senate, governor and pork...my best guestimate of how this will unfold..based on several reason.Ask me why I have put 11 or 29 somewhere.For instance in 2013 we had arguments but I scored so many bull eyes I only missed Western Kenya..luhyas..and got beaten by tum out.

[RV Pundit]

Prof Hornsby who has PhD in Kenya politics agree with me..and this is not first Moas..You can predict how else molo will vote if you're keen enough.For the record I do use some opinion polls where I think the methodology is solid.
I reject the whole premise of MOAS because it purports to be able to determine how people are going to vote before they vote. This is NOT based on scientific poll taking but based on their tribe and how they voted in 2013.  The unacceptable  assumption here is that, if you know the tribe of a Kenyan, and the tribe of the candidate, then you can predict with high level of certainty how all other Kenyan tribes will vote.  That maybe true to the extent that the voter and the candidate are from the same tribe. However, you cannot say the same if the voter and the candidate are not from the same tribe. The only regions the candidates can take for granted are luo nyanza and central province. The candidates seem to agree with me and are campaigning hard all over Kenya including Kalenjin Rift Valley and Kamba Eastern province where the DP candidates hail from.

Jubilee will rig mps,Senate, gov bla de bla.The marking scheme is 9th and 28 days from then if court validate or invalidate the results.Your stupidity is nauseating.How can Moas predict rigging.Lets us agree on some bare minimum basics...don't be like Omollo who shift goal posts every minute.I have put my numbers down for MP,women,Senate, governor and pork...my best guestimate of how this will unfold..based on several reason.Ask me why I have put 11 or 29 somewhere.For instance in 2013 we had arguments but I scored so many bull eyes I only missed Western Kenya..luhyas..and got beaten by tum out.

[vooke]

I reject the whole premise of MOAS because it purports to be able to determine how people are going to vote before they vote. This is NOT based on scientific poll taking but based on their tribe and how they voted in 2013.  The unacceptable  assumption here is that, if you know the tribe of a Kenyan, and the tribe of the candidate, then you can predict with high level of certainty how all other Kenyan tribes will vote.  That maybe true to the extent that the voter and the candidate are from the same tribe. However, you cannot say the same if the voter and the candidate are not from the same tribe. The only regions the candidates can take for granted are luo nyanza and central province. The candidates seem to agree with me and are campaigning hard all over Kenya including Kalenjin Rift Valley and Kamba Eastern province where the DP candidates hail from.

Jubilee will rig mps,Senate, gov bla de bla.The marking scheme is 9th and 28 days from then if court validate or invalidate the results.Your stupidity is nauseating.How can Moas predict rigging.Lets us agree on some bare minimum basics...don't be like Omollo who shift goal posts every minute.I have put my numbers down for MP,women,Senate, governor and pork...my best guestimate of how this will unfold..based on several reason.Ask me why I have put 11 or 29 somewhere.For instance in 2013 we had arguments but I scored so many bull eyes I only missed Western Kenya..luhyas..and got beaten by tum out.

Knowledge of past voting patterns can lead or guide you in making intelligent guesses. It pains you that we vote along tribal lines. Your pain is irrelevant to facts.

Pundit has explained just about every seat, including other factors such as a candidate's relative popularity. Tribe is not about to go away in Kenya.

Look, the reason Babu adopted Rutto was not nationalism, but an attempt to chip off something in South Rift. Kambas threatened to balk if Kalonzo was left out. Babu had to slot him. If you think NASWA Pentagon is anything other than a tribal formation you're sick