I don't Know Where Uhuru Will Get Votes

[Omollo]

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[Omollo]

PHOTO ALBUM: NASA IN NAIROBI #NairobiNiNASA https://t.co/pmsz4i933P @TheODMparty @WiperMovement @anc_party  @FordKenyaSimba @MashinaniKe pic.twitter.com/NPWrRVDWRA

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[patel]

Jubilee thieving amigos have no path to victory...Uhuru has no friends because if he did they would have advised him not to contest but go home quietly and hope Kenyans will find it in their heart to forgive him.

[RV Pundit]

Very funny

[Omollo]

Very funny

The rigging options are diminishing everyday:

1. Issac Hassan removed now privately hired by jubilee
2. Reduced polling station voters to 500 later upped to 700 by jubilee for obvious reasons
3. Got the register audited even if badly but got some dark corners lit
4. Got Results declared at constituency declared to be final by the courts
5. Exposed jubilee as seeking ballot papers to rig. Otherwise exposed the dogged determination to award tender to Al Ghurair
6. Provoked and engineered them to overspend and waste resources just when the race is starting for real

[RV Pundit]

Very good. Don't come crying on 9th about rigging then.

]The rigging options are diminishing everyday:

1. Issac Hassan removed now privately hired by jubilee
2. Reduced polling station voters to 500 later upped to 700 by jubilee for obvious reasons
3. Got the register audited even if badly but got some dark corners lit
4. Got Results declared at constituency declared to be final by the courts
5. Exposed jubilee as seeking ballot papers to rig. Otherwise exposed the dogged determination to award tender to Al Ghurair
6. Provoked and engineered them to overspend and waste resources just when the race is starting for real

[Omollo]

I said this and I am glad Raila said the same today:

We shall accept the election result:

1. If voting is entirely done by EVID / BVR
2. Ballots are NOT printed by Al Ghurair
3. Results by IEBC do not stretch over days then they claim Uhuru has won

Very good. Don't come crying on 9th about rigging then.

]The rigging options are diminishing everyday:

1. Issac Hassan removed now privately hired by jubilee
2. Reduced polling station voters to 500 later upped to 700 by jubilee for obvious reasons
3. Got the register audited even if badly but got some dark corners lit
4. Got Results declared at constituency declared to be final by the courts
5. Exposed jubilee as seeking ballot papers to rig. Otherwise exposed the dogged determination to award tender to Al Ghurair
6. Provoked and engineered them to overspend and waste resources just when the race is starting for real

[Nefertiti]

I have a feeling Kenya will be back to maandamano. and violence after 8th Aug,  or whenever the elections will be held. Welcome to democracy.

[Omollo]

NASA also managed to get ONE REGISTER not the many Issac Hassan kept in his a.hole to pull out whenever he needed to help Jubilee.

Last time the register(s) was / were secret now we are demanding it be made public.

Incase Pundit rigs with remote voting make sure Uhuru's total exceeds the duplicates and ghost voters.

[Omollo]

I have a feeling Kenya will be back to maandamano. and violence after 8th Aug,  or whenever the elections will be held. Welcome to democracy.

It will depend on Uhuru. If he rigs like 2007 with force, there will be violence. He must know already KDF is a tribalized institution with no loyalty to that entity called "Kenya". Sending troops to kill Luos, Luhyas, Coastals and Kambas will unleash reactions that I can't predict and he can't. He would have got people fully armed and reasdy for war outside the barracks.

Similar examples:

Gen Guei of Ivory Coast and later Gbagbo. They rigged elections sure of the army. They were the losers.

Gen. Momoh: Rigged elections in Sierra Leone and started a spiral of events that led to his overthrow and civil war

In Malawi, the soldiers ignored Joyce Banda. Thankfully they were still in their barracks so nothing came of it and the Elections body remained highly neutral and professional.

Exceptions exist but only where the country was already a military dictatorship staging show elections.

[Nefertiti]

The only thing I see is some "freedom fighters" being walloped by rungus and water canons. Not divisions in the Kalenjin- & Gemarized security services. If any of these samples you site for civil war materialized it's not like you'd be better off than anyone. Unless, of course, you plan to be in far-flung Switzerland while cheering war. I for one have no horse and will remain tucked safely overseas.

It will depend on Uhuru. If he rigs like 2007 with force, there will be violence. He must know already KDF is a tribalized institution with no loyalty to that entity called "Kenya". Sending troops to kill Luos, Luhyas, Coastals and Kambas will unleash reactions that I can't predict and he can't. He would have got people fully armed and reasdy for war outside the barracks.

Similar examples:

Gen Guei of Ivory Coast and later Gbagbo. They rigged elections sure of the army. They were the losers.

Gen. Momoh: Rigged elections in Sierra Leone and started a spiral of events that led to his overthrow and civil war

In Malawi, the soldiers ignored Joyce Banda. Thankfully they were still in their barracks so nothing came of it and the Elections body remained highly neutral and professional.

Exceptions exist but only where the country was already a military dictatorship staging show elections.

[Nefertiti]

Omollo this is real life okay? Not a game!

[Omollo]

Omollo this is real life okay? Not a game!

Robina

nowhere have suggested any of that. I have simply provided information about similar events, specifically the dangers of getting soldiers out of the barracks to take partisan sides in a political battle.

I pointed out the folly of such an action because the belief that " I have an army behind me as I grab power" can turn out to be hollow even dangerous. Kibaki saw it when the police started killing each other leading to a decision to change tactics.

My experience is that when the police and paramilitary make war against civilians, it gets destroyed within two weeks (Egypt). With the army it self destructs even faster as internal fissures come to the surface.

Maybe the Kenya Defence Forces are more unified and monolithic than the ones in the cases I have cited. I cannot speak about that.

Civil war is not sparked off by civilians fighting the army. No. It starts with the authorities taking the army out of the barracks. It's the army itself or units of it that mutiny and there begins your civil war.

In South Sudan Numeiri sent colonel Garang to fight in the south. The rest of the story is known to you. I have pointed out Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast already.

There is a variant: where soldiers overthrow the said government. Obote II comes to mind. A unit of the army drive him out. Said Barre was a victim of mutinous units of his army turning against him. Again one of the developments of the Sierra Leone war saw one of the dictators overthrown by a combined force of soldiers and disloyal elements.


In brief political disputes must be solved politically minus the contribution of the military. Any military involvement must be rejected out of hand. Neither the opposition nor the government should make overtures or appear to solicit military support. It means the government must eschew the use of the army either as a catalyst or threat in political disputes.

Feel free to stay abroad. We need more Kenyans around the globe.

Iwinjo?

[RV Pundit]

I see more caveats. So as sure as hell when you loose you'll have an even longer list of why you lost. I can tell you Raila will lose because he has smaller tribal coalition than Uhuru. It just that simple.

I said this and I am glad Raila said the same today:

We shall accept the election result:

1. If voting is entirely done by EVID / BVR
2. Ballots are NOT printed by Al Ghurair
3. Results by IEBC do not stretch over days then they claim Uhuru has won

Very good. Don't come crying on 9th about rigging then.

]The rigging options are diminishing everyday:

1. Issac Hassan removed now privately hired by jubilee
2. Reduced polling station voters to 500 later upped to 700 by jubilee for obvious reasons
3. Got the register audited even if badly but got some dark corners lit
4. Got Results declared at constituency declared to be final by the courts
5. Exposed jubilee as seeking ballot papers to rig. Otherwise exposed the dogged determination to award tender to Al Ghurair
6. Provoked and engineered them to overspend and waste resources just when the race is starting for real

[RV Pundit]

And here is where Uhuru will get 45% of his vote -- Gema+Kalenjin Registered Votes - alone will push him past 45% mark - he'll only need 5% to go past 50% - that 5% in terms of expected votes - is about 800,000 votes.

[RV Pundit]

Definitely there will be demos - but violence will be restricted maybe to slums - because there is no element of suprise after 2007. They will try demos - which police will quash with batons and tear gas - and they will try to raise international ruckus - but if election are free, fair, credible - from 3rd party observers - - Uhuru will be receiving his congratulation message the same day from all the major powers.

So ultimately you have nothing to worry. IEBC will conduct free, fair and credible elections. Jubilee will win. ODM will cause ruckus but it will be smashed quickly.

If IEBC were compromised - I would be worried - but as long as IEBC are allowed to conduct free, fair, credible and peaceful election - UhuRuto will enjoy legimitime mandate and kenyans will return back to work as Raila and Omollo spend the next 5 yrs licking their wounds - and blaming Chebukati for everything.

I have a feeling Kenya will be back to maandamano. and violence after 8th Aug,  or whenever the elections will be held. Welcome to democracy.

[Omollo]

. Can you please elaborate on this assumption.

kindly get an alpha numeric handle. Naomba

[Omollo]

Explain to me why you're sure of riots?

If the elections have been conducted electronically with EVIDs why would anybody riot? If there is no breakdown of the voting system with results coming in for Raila and wanainchi instead seeing Uhuru's total rise while Raila's remains unchanged, why would wanainchi riot?

When you led warriors attacking and killing Kikuyus in RV was it because you saw free, fair and credible elections but just went on a murderous rampage because you had lost to Kibaki?

I notice familiar terms which remind me of the claims by Kibaki. Even he got congrats from the US ambassador which was recalled. Gbagbo went to The Hague with his congratulations from a large number of African dictators. For a while he actually believed he had French support.

Why are you so determined to have Al Ghurair print ballots? On one hand you have Ruto bragging that even specter can print then when the court says NO he leads in diatribe against Maraga and Odunga.

Poor pundit, I can share with you that the KDF path is the only one jubilee is banking on now. That will fail to or at worst backfire. Lie yenu ya fiber optic cable .... The 20 Groups ... NYs cohorts with 30 votes each... NIS with its Groups of ten intimidators, bribers and riggers....

Please respect NASA and may be we shall respect you in turn. Lete madharau Na dharau utapokea kwa pupa.

Definitely there will be demos - but violence will be restricted maybe to slums - because there is no element of suprise after 2007. They will try demos - which police will quash with batons and tear gas - and they will try to raise international ruckus - but if election are free, fair, credible - from 3rd party observers - - Uhuru will be receiving his congratulation message the same day from all the major powers.

So ultimately you have nothing to worry. IEBC will conduct free, fair and credible elections. Jubilee will win. ODM will cause ruckus but it will be smashed quickly.

If IEBC were compromised - I would be worried - but as long as IEBC are allowed to conduct free, fair, credible and peaceful election - UhuRuto will enjoy legimitime mandate and kenyans will return back to work as Raila and Omollo spend the next 5 yrs licking their wounds - and blaming Chebukati for everything.

I have a feeling Kenya will be back to maandamano. and violence after 8th Aug,  or whenever the elections will be held. Welcome to democracy.

[RV Pundit]

I believe IEBC are committed to conduct free, fair, credible and peaceful election. I believe Chiloba and Chebukati are committed to doing that. I don't think IEBC are somehow in bed with Jubilee. NASA allegations are without merit. IEBC have been very transparent and open - despite NASA daily attempt to sabotage their work due to mistrust.

What failed the last IEBC was filling that commission with lawyers -  the failure esp to retain Chirchir who has technical expertise in running huge IT operations was critical in 2010 constitution referendum - was big MISTAKE. I said here that it was huge mistake from Raila & Kibaki to drop Chirchir. As soon as Chirchir was dropped by IEBC - TNA & URP went all out for him - he signed for Ruto's URP and when the merger was done - he became Jubilee's lead technical man - and set up a parallel tallying system that worked.

IEBC in 2013 had nobody who understood shit about systems - not in secretariat - not in commission - and they scrambled for anyone eventually running to pick Kenyan who was working in Nigeria Election commission ( Mr Ongora or somebody).

If you want  a technology enabled election - which is what we need to circumvent a lot of human errors due to mistrust & corruption inherent in kenyans - then we have to hire people who are technical good - like say former IT director of Safaricom - who knows what it takes to make such a system work - to be commissioner. But we have lawyers still dominating IEBC.

I believe IEBC have learnt lessons from failures of 2013 -  last time 30% of the machines & transmission worked -  this time they've had enough time to really work their systems.

I expect failure of 5% -  this time round - I think 95% of  biometric machines for identifying voters and 95% of electronic transmission will work. It's just not realistic or reasonable to expect 100% of machines will work  in all 41,000 poling stations- so manual back up will still need to be used for those 5% -- where machines malfunction or whatever.

I hope court of appeal throw the Odunga nonsense on 20th and we have free, fair, credible and peaceful election. After that - whoever win - which according to me is Uhuru - see MOAS thread and my thoughts in there - the security forces should be prepared for any violence from NASA.

Explain to me why you're sure of riots?

If the elections have been conducted electronically with EVIDs why would anybody riot? If there is no breakdown of the voting system with results coming in for Raila and wanainchi instead seeing Uhuru's total rise while Raila's remains unchanged, why would wanainchi riot?

When you led warriors attacking and killing Kikuyus in RV was it because you saw free, fair and credible elections but just went on a murderous rampage because you had lost to Kibaki?

I notice familiar terms which remind me of the claims by Kibaki. Even he got congrats from the US ambassador which was recalled. Gbagbo went to The Hague with his congratulations from a large number of African dictators. For a while he actually believed he had French support.

Why are you so determined to have Al Ghurair print ballots? On one hand you have Ruto bragging that even specter can print then when the court says NO he leads in diatribe against Maraga and Odunga.

Poor pundit, I can share with you that the KDF path is the only one jubilee is banking on now. That will fail to or at worst backfire. Lie yenu ya fiber optic cable .... The 20 Groups ... NYs cohorts with 30 votes each... NIS with its Groups of ten intimidators, bribers and riggers....

Please respect NASA and may be we shall respect you in turn. Lete madharau Na dharau utapokea kwa pupa.

[Omollo]

I know that Chebukati - despite daily phone calls from Ruto - is determined to conduct free elections.

However that is all. The rest of the commissioners are bought and sold. Led by Consolata Nkanatha Butcher Maina, the likes of Akombe and that guy from Mandera are under daily directions from State House. Please check this if you wish to know that we know. At least check the contacts between Ruto and Chebukati.

Note that I have not said Chebukati follows every word. But the contact is there and can often get overbearing.

Chiloba The Gay is basically a man without any principles or a backbone and he was long made to obey orders by Uhuru. In fact its Jomo Gecaga who gives him orders. They now consider him useless to meet Uhuru.

Pundit we know what Chirchir did. It is best forgotten because if it is over remembered anger can boil over. One thing going for him is that he was hired.

I believe IEBC are committed to conduct free, fair, credible and peaceful election. I believe Chiloba and Chebukati are committed to doing that. I don't think IEBC are somehow in bed with Jubilee. NASA allegations are without merit. IEBC have been very transparent and open - despite NASA daily attempt to sabotage their work due to mistrust.

What failed the last IEBC was filling that commission with lawyers -  the failure esp to retain Chirchir who has technical expertise in running huge IT operations was critical in 2010 constitution referendum - was big MISTAKE. I said here that it was huge mistake from Raila & Kibaki to drop Chirchir. As soon as Chirchir was dropped by IEBC - TNA & URP went all out for him - he signed for Ruto's URP and when the merger was done - he became Jubilee's lead technical man - and set up a parallel tallying system that worked.

IEBC in 2013 had nobody who understood shit about systems - not in secretariat - not in commission - and they scrambled for anyone eventually running to pick Kenyan who was working in Nigeria Election commission ( Mr Ongora or somebody).

If you want  a technology enabled election - which is what we need to circumvent a lot of human errors due to mistrust & corruption inherent in kenyans - then we have to hire people who are technical good - like say former IT director of Safaricom - who knows what it takes to make such a system work - to be commissioner. But we have lawyers still dominating IEBC.

I believe IEBC have learnt lessons from failures of 2013 -  last time 30% of the machines & transmission worked -  this time they've had enough time to really work their systems.

I expect failure of 5% -  this time round - I think 95% of  biometric machines for identifying voters and 95% of electronic transmission will work. It's just not realistic or reasonable to expect 100% of machines will work  in all 41,000 poling stations- so manual back up will still need to be used for those 5% -- where machines malfunction or whatever.

I hope court of appeal throw the Odunga nonsense on 20th and we have free, fair, credible and peaceful election. After that - whoever win - which according to me is Uhuru - see MOAS thread and my thoughts in there - the security forces should be prepared for any violence from NASA.