Kitui - Kalonzo has mighty problems at home

[RV Pundit]

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I mean apart from the fact that his Mp(Mwingi South), Mwingi North, Kitui South and Minority Leader Nyenze & possibly Musila are batting for Uhuru  - and after rubbish Ngilu for not folding up NARC & Joining Wiper- I have seen opinion poll of Uhuru polling 30% plus Kitui. Iko shida Ukambani.

Here you can see UhuRuto are eating his lunch.

[Nefertiti]

I keep saying Mutua will take over from Kalonzo. Uhuru may benefit next August but longterm it's Mutua - since Kambas will want new leader once Wiper is humiliated.

[RV Pundit]

Kibwezi ni hivyo hivyo - if the are people who should appreciate jubilee - it should be makueni people who have seen SGR transform mtito andei to salama.

[Kichwa]

SO, is it tribe or economics?.  It seems its tribe when it favors your candidate and economics when it favors your candidate. Make up your mind.  Other than tribe and economics, there are also other issues, change, corruption, etc.  There are 5 million new voters and nobody has a clue how they are going to vote except we predict they will vote according to their tribal affiliation based on the 2013 tribal voting patterns.  I believe Leo ni Leo and asemae ni jana ni mwongo.  Somethings will remain the same and somethings will change.  Its those things that will change that will make a difference.

Kibwezi ni hivyo hivyo - if the are people who should appreciate jubilee - it should be makueni people who have seen SGR transform mtito andei to salama.

[RV Pundit]

Why does it have to be binary choice? Stop misrepresenting stuff...of course they are many factors..but main factor remain tribe. Here we are talking about 10-20% of people maybe defying their tribe - as opposed to the normal 5%. Ultimately Raila will get most of Makueni coz of Kalonzo.. Already we have indicators that some 10-20% will defy Kalonzo based on opinion polls, number of elected & key leaders in Jubilee (as opposed to say 2013) and even crowds... ultimately we will find out on 8th - which factors mattered - did SGR matter? Or did tribe matter?

SO, is it tribe or economics?.  It seems its tribe when it favors your candidate and economics when it favors your candidate. Make up your mind.  Other than tribe and economics, there are also other issues, change, corruption, etc.  There are 5 million new voters and nobody has a clue how they are going to vote except we predict they will vote according to their tribal affiliation based on the 2013 tribal voting patterns.  I believe Leo ni Leo and asemae ni jana ni mwongo.  Somethings will remain the same and somethings will change.  Its those things that will change that will make a difference.

[Kichwa]

TRUE-   but it is also true that more Kalenjins may defy Ruto  than they did in 2013.  I will respect the findings on the 8th if we keep a vigilance on IEBC and they respond by doing a better job than their predecessors.  What's good is unlike Kagame ouru is campaigning and not waiting to be throned.  There  was a lot of talk not too long ago about ouru walking in easily because he has tyranny of numbers.  We have a race here and I am more confident than ever that NASA will prevail. I am also respectful of your views that your side has an edge.  What I do not accept is that this race is over and ouru is in.

Why does it have to be binary choice? Stop misrepresenting stuff...of course they are many factors..but main factor remain tribe. Here we are talking about 10-20% of people maybe defying their tribe - as opposed to the normal 5%. Ultimately Raila will get most of Makueni coz of Kalonzo.. Already we have indicators that some 10-20% will defy Kalonzo based on opinion polls, number of elected & key leaders in Jubilee (as opposed to say 2013) and even crowds... ultimately we will find out on 8th - which factors mattered - did SGR matter? Or did tribe matter?

SO, is it tribe or economics?.  It seems its tribe when it favors your candidate and economics when it favors your candidate. Make up your mind.  Other than tribe and economics, there are also other issues, change, corruption, etc.  There are 5 million new voters and nobody has a clue how they are going to vote except we predict they will vote according to their tribal affiliation based on the 2013 tribal voting patterns.  I believe Leo ni Leo and asemae ni jana ni mwongo.  Somethings will remain the same and somethings will change.  Its those things that will change that will make a difference.

[Globalcitizen12]

Pundit is nerveous that his model may after all not work. He is changing his mind. I know Pundit is objective and so this reactionary stage in his life because of his support for ruto is conflicting with who he is. I am in Kichwa camp, I agree tribe is factor but it is not the only factor right now. 2013 elections were about ICC it was the anchor issue to rally the tribes.. Right now the issues are more economic, county governance and corruption. The problem with Kenya pollsters is that they do not go deep into polls and find out what is the issues that concern voters are.. I would hope GALL UP will join the fray now that we have a register

[sitting bull]

This  is what happened in kitui pundit

[patel]

What a shame. ..In UKambani voters are only paid 100 shillings while else people are being 1000 shillings.no respect for kamba votes.

This  is what happened in kitui pundit

[Omollo]

Jubilee has no votes in Ukambani. It has no votes in Western and Coast. Its share of the vote in RV is shrinking. It has invested in thieves who have looted its entire campaign war chest.

Candidates are planning to decamp to NASA in many areas because they see no hope.

However the Uhuru national train continues backed by donations ransom extorted from businessmen, civil servants and whatever can be looted from the state. Uhuru cannot use private choppers because he simply can't afford it.

In the meantime NASA's campaign is well oiled.

Let me explain their actions and words:

1. Diatribe and Tirade against Wanjigi
Uhuru and co cannot understand how they are broke while NASA is running a well oiled campaign. They ignore the fact that the thieving culture has taken over and each and everyone in Jubilee is building something. All cash meant to trickle down or run the campaigns is swallowed and nobody wants to waste his own "savings" on the campaign "incase Raila wins". Thus the anger against Wanjigi will increase and get more desperate as we approach election day. I cannot rule out an NIS attempt on Wanjingi's life

2. The Dogged Anti-Kalonzo Propaganda
To win, they need to be "allowed" to steal votes in Ukambani. Kibaki got that "permission" and they used Ngilu in 2013 to top up. As their options in Western which has now become openly hostile and even more militant than Nyanza, the need for Kamba votes by theft increases. Thus they want to create the narrative that there are Jubilee votes in Ukambani so the theft can pass for fact. They have a small problem: They continue to lose control over the voter database which contains 3 million ghost voters.

More later. Got guests

[RV Pundit]

-- lots of indicators to consider - opinion polls/ key leaders/crowds/ - something is cooking in Ukambani & Western - NASA are in trouble in their strongholds.

[Omollo]

-- lots of indicators to consider - opinion polls/ key leaders/crowds/ - something is cooking in Ukambani & Western - NASA are in trouble in their strongholds.

That is the idea: "Something is cooking". Or other temrs like "the ground has shifted". They are PR / spin terms to spread doubt and provide the excuse for stealing votes.

The problem for Raila was that he always believed he was competing with a people intent on winning or losing through the ballot. When he led and won the 2005 referendum, he fell asleep and closed his eyes to theft in 2007.

The he imagined that the 2010 constitution and the promise by Kibaki to support him in 2013 were worth anything.

If Jubilee thinks it is dealing with the same naivete, they are badly mistaken.

[RV Pundit]

So you're going to be obstinate because you think it's tough thing to do? Facts are more stubborn than you. Come 9th August - about a month now- you'll disappear for a few years only to re-emerge with more propaganda in 2022.

That is the idea: "Something is cooking". Or other temrs like "the ground has shifted". They are PR / spin terms to spread doubt and provide the excuse for stealing votes.

The problem for Raila was that he always believed he was competing with a people intent on winning or losing through the ballot. When he led and won the 2005 referendum, he fell asleep and closed his eyes to theft in 2007.

The he imagined that the 2010 constitution and the promise by Kibaki to support him in 2013 were worth anything.

If Jubilee thinks it is dealing with the same naivete, they are badly mistaken.

[Nefertiti]

I don't imagine any such trade between the mortal enemies. Talk of Kalonzo and his shuttle diplomacy.

The he imagined that the 2010 constitution and the promise by Kibaki to support him in 2013 were worth anything.

[patel]

Agreed. Noticed they have bribed David lagat who was funding Nandi rebellion. ..Uhuruto map continue to shrink. Jubilee has no path to victory in a free and fair election.

Jubilee has no votes in Ukambani. It has no votes in Western and Coast. Its share of the vote in RV is shrinking. It has invested in thieves who have looted its entire campaign war chest.

Candidates are planning to decamp to NASA in many areas because they see no hope.

However the Uhuru national train continues backed by donations ransom extorted from businessmen, civil servants and whatever can be looted from the state. Uhuru cannot use private choppers because he simply can't afford it.

In the meantime NASA's campaign is well oiled.

Let me explain their actions and words:

1. Diatribe and Tirade against Wanjigi
Uhuru and co cannot understand how they are broke while NASA is running a well oiled campaign. They ignore the fact that the thieving culture has taken over and each and everyone in Jubilee is building something. All cash meant to trickle down or run the campaigns is swallowed and nobody wants to waste his own "savings" on the campaign "incase Raila wins". Thus the anger against Wanjigi will increase and get more desperate as we approach election day. I cannot rule out an NIS attempt on Wanjingi's life

2. The Dogged Anti-Kalonzo Propaganda
To win, they need to be "allowed" to steal votes in Ukambani. Kibaki got that "permission" and they used Ngilu in 2013 to top up. As their options in Western which has now become openly hostile and even more militant than Nyanza, the need for Kamba votes by theft increases. Thus they want to create the narrative that there are Jubilee votes in Ukambani so the theft can pass for fact. They have a small problem: They continue to lose control over the voter database which contains 3 million ghost voters.

More later. Got guests

[RV Pundit]

 Makueni Assembly Speaker Stephen Ngelu and other Jubilee candidates in Ukambani..The President drummed up support for the Jubilee lineup in Makueni who included Mr Gideon Ndambuki (governorship), Mr Peter Maundu (Senator), Ms Eunice Munanie (Woman Rep) and MPs Kisoi Munyao (Mbooni), Regina Ndambuki (Kilome), Richard Makenga (Kaiti). He also asked voters to elect parliamentary candidates Prof Philip Kaloki (Kibwezi East), Mr Peter Kiilu (Makueni) and Ms Mwelu Mwandiku (Kibwezi East).

[Omollo]

How many votes did Uhuru get in Makueni brother Pundit?

Makueni Assembly Speaker Stephen Ngelu and other Jubilee candidates in Ukambani..The President drummed up support for the Jubilee lineup in Makueni who included Mr Gideon Ndambuki (governorship), Mr Peter Maundu (Senator), Ms Eunice Munanie (Woman Rep) and MPs Kisoi Munyao (Mbooni), Regina Ndambuki (Kilome), Richard Makenga (Kaiti). He also asked voters to elect parliamentary candidates Prof Philip Kaloki (Kibwezi East), Mr Peter Kiilu (Makueni) and Ms Mwelu Mwandiku (Kibwezi East).

[Nefertiti]

I have not bought Pundit's story about migrant MPs. They were bribed to join Kanu 2.0 by UhuRuto who learnt from the best. A poor indicator of the ground shifting. However,  defections to NASA are more genuine as there is no feeding trough there. I expect Jubilee to lose most of the swing vote to NASA - Western, Coast, MATUSA - ala 2013. Most counties will be NASA leaning.

[Nefertiti]

Ruto's a poisoned chalice - if only NASA were not so incompetent...

[Nefertiti]

NASA once they start with their pledge to reign in debt - cannot afford to let us dream since how do they pay for it - as Jubilee paints a Rising African Tiger. We see Omollo's struggle to articulate their utopian socialism: he can't point to ujamaa or starving Ethiopia or despotic China. He is stuck with grumbling about welfare in EU and stingy Brits.