Uhuru 7.8MN (53%) Raila 6.8MN (47%).

[Mr Mansfield.]

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https://www.iebc.or.ke/docs/Registered%20Voters%20Per%20County%20For%202017%20General%20Elections.pdf


001 MOMBASA 580,223 Raila 270K Uhuru 90K
002 KWALE 281,041 156k Uhuru 30k

003 KILIFI 508,068 270K Uhuru 40k
004 TANA RIVER 118,327 Rao 56K Uhuru 33k

005 LAMU 69,776 29k 23k
006 TAITA TAVETA 155,716 Raila 100k Uhuru 16k

007 GARISSA 163,350 Raila 62k Uhuru 58k
008 WAJIR 162,902 RAO 67k Uhuru 53K

009 MANDERA 175,642 Rao 5k Uhuru 132K
010 MARSABIT 141,708 Rao 62k Uhuru 59k

011 ISIOLO 75,338 Rao 16k Uhuru 35k
012 MERU 702,480 Rao 50k uhuru 555k

013 THARAKA - NITHI 213,154 Rao 10k Uhuru 185k
014 EMBU 309,468 Rao 24k Uhuru 245k

015 KITUI 474,512 Rao 340k Uhuru 60k
016 MACHAKOS 620,254 Rao 470k Uhuru 52k

017 MAKUENI 423,310 Rao 344k uhuru 19k
018 NYANDARUA 335,634 Rao 3k Uhuru 310k

019 NYERI 456,949 Rao 8k Uhuru 410k
020 KIRINYAGA 349,836 Rao 5k Uhuru 305k

021 MURANG'A 587,126 Rao 15k uhuru 535k
022 KIAMBU 1,180,920 Rao 85k Uhuru 965k

023 TURKANA 191,435 Rao 97k Uhuru 45k
024 WEST POKOT 180,232 Rao 38k uhuru 118k

025 SAMBURU 82,787 Ra0 41k Uhuru 28k
026 TRANS NZOIA 339,622 Rao 150k Uhuru 110k

027 UASIN GISHU 450,055 Rao 96k Uhuru 286k
028 ELGEYO/MARAKWET 180,664 Rao 8k Uhuru 160k

029 NANDI 346,007 Rao 10k Uhuru 300k
030 BARINGO 232,258 Rao 10k uhuru 200k

031 LAIKIPIA 246,487 Rao 28k Uhuru 192k
032 NAKURU 949,618 Rao 160k Uhuru 730k

033 NAROK 341,730 Rao 146k Uhuru 145k
034 KAJIADO 411,193 Rao 160k Uhuru 185k

035 KERICHO 375,668 Rao 30k Uhuru 310k
036 BOMET 322,012 Rao 15k Uhuru 275k

037 KAKAMEGA 743,736 Rao 530k Uhuru 50k
038 VIHIGA 272,409 Rao 215k Uhuru 5k

039 BUNGOMA 559,850 Rao 360k Uhuru 120k
040 BUSIA 351,048 Rao 280k Uhuru 15k

041 SIAYA 457,953 Rao 420k Uhuru 2k
042 KISUMU 539,210 Rao 470k Uhuru 7k

043 HOMA BAY 476,875 Rao 440k Uhuru 1k
044 MIGORI 388,633 Rao 320k Uhuru 30k

045 KISII 546,580 Rao 320k Uhuru 130k
046 NYAMIRA 278,853 Rao 150k Uhuru 70k

047 NAIROBI CITY 2,250,853 Rao 920k Uhuru 870k

048 DIASPORA 4,393 Rao 2k Uhuru 2k
049 PRISONS 5,528 Rao 2k Uhuru 2k

I have used the 2013 voter turnout percentages to calculate august 8 turnout using the new iebc register and hereby are the projected results.

NB:I've given 75%-85% Mudavadi votes to NASA.

Final IEBC Register. Uhuru 7.8MN (53%) Raila 6.8MN (47%).

Without Prejudice.

[RV Pundit]

Not quite different with MOAS. This election is easy to predict because it essentially is a re-run of 2013 with few little moves on the chess board.

I agree that maDVD will transfer Vihiga & Kakamega votes to NASA - but Wamalwa-KenLusaka-Kombo seem to have moved Amani votes in Bungoma & Tranzoia Amani votes in

[Mr Mansfield.]

I agree that maDVD will transfer Vihiga & Kakamega votes - but Wamalwa-KenLusaka-Kombo seem to have moved Amani votes in Bungoma & Tranzoia Amani votes in

the point is to estimate from worst case scenario,

Without Prejudice.

[RV Pundit]

For who - as a pundit - I am looking at realistic scenario - as candidate - they'd be advised to look at worse case scenario.

the point is to estimate from worst case scenario,

Without Prejudice.