Karua versus Waiguru versus Ndathi

[RV Pundit]

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This one is tough. Waiguru having won Jubilee nomination in close contest with Gitari(now Karua running mate) is clearly favourite.
Both Karua & Waiguru come from Gichugu.
That leaves Kirinyaga central (Gitari homeground - a Ndia) and more populous & cosmopolitan Mwea (Waiguru running mate) to decide.
Ndati is also from Gichuru is but a spoiler here.

This one is going to the wire...but Waiguru has one leg inside. If Martha is beaten then it will end of her political career.

They split Gichugu, Waiguru takes Mwea, Martha takes Ndias -Kirinyanga central & Ndia. Cliff hanger.

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001243958/martha-karua-heckled-during-campaign-trip-in-waiguru-s-stronghold

[Kadame5]

I will not be surprised if Kenyans as usual do the dumb thing and reject Karua and vote for Waiguru. Karua is by far the least soiled by corription and has proven her mettle in terms of performance with CDF plus she left opposition side and joined Uhuru. If those people know what is good for them, they will vote for her. But alas, they wont.

On the other hand, she and Peter Kenneth were really daft to go for PORK in 2013 rather than governor. Keneth would be Nairobi Governor today if he did that then and Karua would not have sat in the cold for 5 years only to be humbled back into seeking the same position she didnt want before only this time with much tougher chances. I hope she wins. Waiguru will just steal from those people. Martha Karua has proven she will serve them.

[RV Pundit]

Well kenyans votes are ever "wiser" - they do not consider one reason for electing someone - it's multitude of reasons. Karua may not be corrupt but she probably doesn't have track record of getting stuff done like Waiguru. or maybe she is not generous in harambees?. I think the most important factor is how they navigate through Gichugu/Ki-Ndia/kamba-embu sub-tribes there - just like clannism in Gusii - those things are part of "leadership" - how they form alliance with key leaders across the county - and of course belonging to Jubilee party is added advantage. Karua knack for opposition may scare folks - he is bit Raila or Isaac Ruto who can even oppose her own GoK and can possibly become dictator - who will wield power with ruthlessness she is known for.

I will not be surprised if Kenyans as usual do the dumb thing and reject Karua and vote for Waiguru. Karua is by far the least soiled by corription and has proven her mettle in terms of performance with CDF plus she left opposition side and joined Uhuru. If those people know what is good for them, they will vote for her. But alas, they wont.

On the other hand, she and Peter Kenneth were really daft to go for PORK in 2013 rather than governor. Keneth would be Nairobi Governor today if he did that then and Karua would not have sat in the cold for 5 years only to be humbled back into seeking the same position she didnt want before only this time with much tougher chances. I hope she wins. Waiguru will just steal from those people. Martha Karua has proven she will serve them.

[Kadame5]

Wow, I didnt know Kyuks also suffer from clanism. I thought that was just a Kisii and North Eastern Issue. Yes, in an area of muliple group identities like that, you must be sure to show inclusion as the overall leader. But I hope Karua wins and Waiguru is not rewarded for the heist she pulled in GOK. Dictator? Sometimes a strong leader is good. Imagine if all the ministers and governors were as serious about meeting goals as the late Michuki? Kenya would be a radically different place in a very very short amount of time, even with our corruption. In fact, get a Michuki to head anti-corruption commission where he sees meeting goals as his primary interests and sooner or later you will see a difference.

[Globalcitizen12]

Waiguru has this in the bag. However karua is doing retail politics and may be back. I think karua being a Catholic will greatly help her. Kirinyaga has very powerful Catholics

[Globalcitizen12]

Pundit is crazy with his clanism nonsense. Kikuyus do not even know their clans. If your are 60 years and above you know your clan if below 59 you have no idea and doesn't matter. Kenyatta killed clanism

[RV Pundit]

Here come the prick.I didn't say clans..I said clans matter to Gusii & Somalis & Maasai..it doesn't matter to Kalenjin or Kikuyus. But in Kirinyanga sub-tribe/tribes matters - they don't even consider themselves mainstream Kikuyu. Gichugu or Ki-ndia are sub-tribes with a dialect different from say Muranga or Nyeri kikuyu. I don't create the realities like Ki-ndia or Gichugu sub-tribes. Every country has it's own reality.

Of course Kenyatta tried to mainstream kirinyanga people into Kikuyu proper - and moved it from eastern province to central province in 60s...but I think Gichugu/Kindia is probably closer to embu than Muranga or Nyeri kikuyu.

Pundit is crazy with his clanism nonsense. Kikuyus do not even know their clans. If your are 60 years and above you know your clan if below 59 you have no idea and doesn't matter. Kenyatta killed clanism

[Globalcitizen12]

so there is a gichugu subtribe? I only know ndia everyone in kirinyaga speaks the ndia dialect..in mwea there may be mixer of mbeere embu and ndia dialects..

[Kadame5]

Waiguru has this in the bag. However karua is doing retail politics and may be back. I think karua being a Catholic will greatly help her. Kirinyaga has very powerful Catholics

When did she become Catholic? She never used to be. And is religion really an issue in Kenya?

[RV Pundit]

Of course there is gichugu sub-tribe.Martha speaks gi-Gichugu. Mwea - rice settlement has lots of kambas & embus.

so there is a gichugu subtribe? I only know ndia everyone in kirinyaga speaks the ndia dialect..in mwea there may be mixer of mbeere embu and ndia dialects..

[Globalcitizen12]

I thought Martha is a Catholic. She very close to Catholic church. Yes it is an issue. In central it can be a deciding factor. If the politician is securor or non religious then it becomes a non factor ..Uhuru core supporters in central are Catholic. The Catholic Church has shielded him from criticism from others clergy 

[hk]

Martha isn't going to win. She might not be corrupt but that's not the only attribute that voters look for. Kiraitu was involved in anglo leasing but what he did in imenti its what might catapult him to a governor. The funny thing is all the people campaigning in kirinyaga are staying in karatina which is only 10km from kirinyaga. The one person who has changed fortunes of kirinyaga is alfred nderitu who liberalized the rice industry. As a result Mwea and kagio towns are booming.

[RV Pundit]

Yeah everytime I pass Mwea I see transformation.What did Alfred Nderitu do to rice farming. I wish it could be replicated in place like Ahero (dead as dodo). But I agree voters are not single issues..Waiguru is clearly the front runner...but I don't know how Martha alliance with Gachoka (who came close second to Waiguru) will play out. Martha also has support of Karaba. But Waiguru has support of Wangici - the wife of Kanyotu side kick who has enough money to burn.

Martha isn't going to win. She might not be corrupt but that's not the only attribute that voters look for. Kiraitu was involved in anglo leasing but what he did in imenti its what might catapult him to a governor. The funny thing is all the people campaigning in kirinyaga are staying in karatina which is only 10km from kirinyaga. The one person who has changed fortunes of kirinyaga is alfred nderitu who liberalized the rice industry. As a result Mwea and kagio towns are booming.

[Globalcitizen12]

Karua has support of gitari the young guy who rode tna wave

[hk]

Karua has support of gitari the young guy who rode tna wave

What TNA wave? Gitari won on pnu in 2011 after by-election. Uhuru campaigned for him against the current senator karaba who was on martha narc. Basically it was battle between martha and uhuru in 2011. Lets not exaggerate Gitari influence in kirinyaga.

[Globalcitizen12]

Yeah I had forgotten it was PNU .. He retained his seat in 2013 because he capitalized on TNA wave. he was TNA poster boy in Kirinyaga County.

[hk]

Yeah I had forgotten it was PNU .. He retained his seat in 2013 because he capitalized on TNA wave. he was TNA poster boy in Kirinyaga County.

All kirinyaga Mps 4 of them were in TNA.

[Globalcitizen12]

Yes but he was the prominent one having beaten karua with help of pnu

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Waiguru wins because she has shown unswerving loyalty to the muthamaki.  There may be other reasons, but mostly academic.