MERU is what will make or break Uhuru

[Globalcitizen12]

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I have a feeling Merus are finally tired of their oligarchs and want to give a big F u to the system. What happens in Meru will determine if this election will go to the wire or not.

[patel]

How can this be make when all NASA calculations are based on all these votes going to Uhuru.  Kenyans are finally uniting against the thieving duo. 

I have a feeling Merus are finally tired of their oligarchs and want to give a big F u to the system. What happens in Meru will determine if this election will go to the wire or not.

[GeeMail]

I have a feeling Merus are finally tired of their oligarchs and want to give a big F u to the system. What happens in Meru will determine if this election will go to the wire or not.

Globalcitizen12 Those huge PNU billboards in Meru and at places like Makutano speak volumes. Funny to think that just a few years ago PNU meant a completely different kettle of fish. Munya is Kiraitu/Uhuru's gift to NASA. Not to be left behind, William Ruto has gifted NASA with his namesake to the same objective of cutting JP's feet in crucial places. William ices the cake by antagonizing Uhuru's home base with selected JP nominees in a replay of Uasin Gichu and much of RV.

[RV Pundit]

PNU is part of Jubilee not NASA. Last time Meru had their own party - Alliance Party(Mbus) and actually elected two ODM mps (Mpuri Aburi) if I am not wrong - gave Raila nearly 10% in both Meru & Tharaka - but this time round I think Raila is coming out with nothing from there.As far the race for governor goes - Imentis being popular means Kiraitu start with huge head start - Kilemi Mwiria and Meru Governor both come from Tigania and will split the vote there......and if not..then the Igembes get to decide (and already Kiraitu has the most prominient Igember leader for Senate).

Meru governor is basically staring at retirement..and should not be talking about 2022.

[Globalcitizen12]

You. Are right if 2013 voting patterns hold in Meru. For now there is a certain uncertainty a slim one that vaite may break way

[RV Pundit]

Meru Gov Munya has uphill task. Kiraitu's Imentis make about 50% of Meru county. Munya's Tiganias are just 20% - and Kilemi Mwiraria is also running from the same place. That leaves Igembes(30% of Meru county)  as only hope for Munya- South Igembes will likely vote with Imentis as they have Senate seat thro Mintika Linturi - with North Igembes aligning with Munya's tigania. I would say Munya is going to end up with roughly 35-40% with Kiraitu winning by 55-60%. If you throw in Kilemi Mwirari (taking some % from tiganias) and Kinoti (Buuri Mp) taking from Kirauti's Imenti in the mix - then each will get 5% - so Kiraitu will win with 55%;Munya 35%; Mwiraria 5%; Kinoti 5%.

That is in short the MOAS of MERU.

You. Are right if 2013 voting patterns hold in Meru. For now there is a certain uncertainty a slim one that vaite may break way

[Omollo]

Pundit

Do sometimes share the underlying basis for your authoritative conclusions.

For example what connection is there between MBUS or Murungi and the election of two ODM MPs? I thought Mbus was a party meant to be used by the GEMA candidate to ride to power? So how did it end up facilitating the election of two ODM MPs?

You have a problem which all those who support the parochialism of GEMA tribal nationalists end up with. You simply refuse to accept that ODM or Raila can have an appeal outside Luo-Nyanza. It is that reasoning that has Uhuru and Ruto practically moving to Western and Kisii. They are unable to understand how Luhyas and Kisiis support a man they despise and resent!

Study the history of Meru and you may learn that Moi managed to lock out Matiba and Kibaki for quite some time before he let go in 2002. There are places even in Central where people see through Uthamaki propaganda and are willing to vote across the board.

You will (like I have been) shocked to find the LARGE number of ethnic Kikuyus who are supporting NASA and others Raila. This election is not like any we have seen. I have had to personally do a soul searching exercise to align myself with the reality by re-evaluating my prejudices not least about The Kikuyu Elite.

PNU is part of Jubilee not NASA. Last time Meru had their own party - Alliance Party(Mbus) and actually elected two ODM mps (Mpuri Aburi) if I am not wrong - gave Raila nearly 10% in both Meru & Tharaka - but this time round I think Raila is coming out with nothing from there.As far the race for governor goes - Imentis being popular means Kiraitu start with huge head start - Kilemi Mwiria and Meru Governor both come from Tigania and will split the vote there......and if not..then the Igembes get to decide (and already Kiraitu has the most prominient Igember leader for Senate).

Meru governor is basically staring at retirement..and should not be talking about 2022.

[RV Pundit]

I didn't make any connection. I simply said I think Meru is more pro-Jubilee than in 2013. The reason ODM got 1 or 2 Mps elected there..they've seen defected to Jubilee. I also said while MBUS ran the show in most of Mt Kenya East - now i'ts PNU with Munya attempting to retain meru only.

Moi knew the tribal, clan, regional and sub-regional tapestry of the country and played it to his advantage. Imentis were DP (due to Kiraitu-Mwiraria) and supported Kibaki throughout. The Igembes and Tiganias were pro-KANU because they had leaders who had Moi eye and ear - and those are what matters.   The same case with EMbu - Moi got few votes from Embu but was always assured of Mbeere/kamba votes. The same case with Tharaka Nithi - Moi got votes from Tharakas.

Without understanding the tribal, regional and clan make-up you aint going nowhere. That I think has been the failure of Raila. He has been trying to create a national mass movement akin to NARC/ODM revolution of 2002-2007 - but that works only a few times - like Obamawave -most of the time folks default to tribal/racial cocoons!

Pundit

Do sometimes share the underlying basis for your authoritative conclusions.

For example what connection is there between MBUS or Murungi and the election of two ODM MPs? I thought Mbus was a party meant to be used by the GEMA candidate to ride to power? So how did it end up facilitating the election of two ODM MPs?

You have a problem which all those who support the parochialism of GEMA tribal nationalists end up with. You simply refuse to accept that ODM or Raila can have an appeal outside Luo-Nyanza. It is that reasoning that has Uhuru and Ruto practically moving to Western and Kisii. They are unable to understand how Luhyas and Kisiis support a man they despise and resent!

Study the history of Meru and you may learn that Moi managed to lock out Matiba and Kibaki for quite some time before he let go in 2002. There are places even in Central where people see through Uthamaki propaganda and are willing to vote across the board.

You will (like I have been) shocked to find the LARGE number of ethnic Kikuyus who are supporting NASA and others Raila. This election is not like any we have seen. I have had to personally do a soul searching exercise to align myself with the reality by re-evaluating my prejudices not least about The Kikuyu Elite.

PNU is part of Jubilee not NASA. Last time Meru had their own party - Alliance Party(Mbus) and actually elected two ODM mps (Mpuri Aburi) if I am not wrong - gave Raila nearly 10% in both Meru & Tharaka - but this time round I think Raila is coming out with nothing from there.As far the race for governor goes - Imentis being popular means Kiraitu start with huge head start - Kilemi Mwiria and Meru Governor both come from Tigania and will split the vote there......and if not..then the Igembes get to decide (and already Kiraitu has the most prominient Igember leader for Senate).

Meru governor is basically staring at retirement..and should not be talking about 2022.

[Omollo]

I didn't make any connection. I simply said I think Meru is more pro-Jubilee than in 2013. The reason ODM got 1 or 2 Mps elected there..they've seen defected to Jubilee.

As usual you equate the defection of an MP with the defection of the voters of his constituency. I have no idea where you got that from since many cases in Kenya have shown that to be barely true.
Note the following:
1. There were NO ODM MPs before these were elected
2. Those who voted for them KNEW that they were in ODM
3. The period when they were elected was particularly hostile to Raila because of ICC propaganda
4. Defection means ODM is back where it was with its supporters intact (note that none of the MPs elected had prior political experience or known support before this and that Raila personally campaigned for them.

I also said while MBUS ran the show in most of Mt Kenya East - now i'ts PNU with Munya attempting to retain meru only.

I don't see the results of that "show" you speak of. Mbus got 2 MPs the same as ODM. Yet you wouldn't be caught in the dark admitting that ODM "ran the show"!
Here is the proof bro:

Moi knew the tribal, clan, regional and sub-regional tapestry of the country and played it to his advantage. Imentis were DP (due to Kiraitu-Mwiraria) and supported Kibaki throughout. The Igembes and Tiganias were pro-KANU because they had leaders who had Moi eye and ear - and those are what matters.   The same case with EMbu - Moi got few votes from Embu but was always assured of Mbeere/kamba votes. The same case with Tharaka Nithi - Moi got votes from Tharakas.

I agree entirely with what you write about Moi. I can add that he used a Cell System and locked out Opposition with the exception of a few constituencies.

However I hope you are not suggesting that Uhuru is the successor of Moi on those tactics. Otherwise you would need to explain ODM seats better than MPs defecting = votes.

Without understanding the tribal, regional and clan make-up you aint going nowhere. That I think has been the failure of Raila. He has been trying to create a national mass movement akin to NARC/ODM revolution of 2002-2007 - but that works only a few times - like Obamawave -most of the time folks default to tribal/racial cocoons!

I now conclude that you don't know Raila and you never did. Hint: Why do you think Moi after detaining him in 1997 after elections Kibaki entered talks with Moi for Nusu-Mkate. But Moi not only waited for Raila's overtures, when they didn't come he personally went to his house to cut the deal. The NIS had told him Raila had expanded his network beyond their ability to monitor and was going to make Nairobi and Mombasa ungovernable. The day Uhuru goes to a far off place like Marsabit and enters a home at night unannounced and is welcome like the long lost son is the day you can sell that denigration of Raila to me. These things come from being born in a home where you are under 24/7 surveillance and have to deliver messages and oil your dad's connections. Uhuru had no such "luck".

NASA is not interested in the governorship in Meru so save your energy.

[RV Pundit]

Okay. Pin this up. Uhuru will improve his tally in Meru county. Jubilee will win most if not all seats. Munya is gone home. Kiraitu is the next governor. Let me know how you think it will turn up and we can resume on 9th - if you wont be AWOL.

I didn't make any connection. I simply said I think Meru is more pro-Jubilee than in 2013. The reason ODM got 1 or 2 Mps elected there..they've seen defected to Jubilee.

As usual you equate the defection of an MP with the defection of the voters of his constituency. I have no idea where you got that from since many cases in Kenya have shown that to be barely true.
Note the following:
1. There were NO ODM MPs before these were elected
2. Those who voted for them KNEW that they were in ODM
3. The period when they were elected was particularly hostile to Raila because of ICC propaganda
4. Defection means ODM is back where it was with its supporters intact (note that none of the MPs elected had prior political experience or known support before this and that Raila personally campaigned for them.

I also said while MBUS ran the show in most of Mt Kenya East - now i'ts PNU with Munya attempting to retain meru only.

I don't see the results of that "show" you speak of. Mbus got 2 MPs the same as ODM. Yet you wouldn't be caught in the dark admitting that ODM "ran the show"!
Here is the proof bro:

Moi knew the tribal, clan, regional and sub-regional tapestry of the country and played it to his advantage. Imentis were DP (due to Kiraitu-Mwiraria) and supported Kibaki throughout. The Igembes and Tiganias were pro-KANU because they had leaders who had Moi eye and ear - and those are what matters.   The same case with EMbu - Moi got few votes from Embu but was always assured of Mbeere/kamba votes. The same case with Tharaka Nithi - Moi got votes from Tharakas.

I agree entirely with what you write about Moi. I can add that he used a Cell System and locked out Opposition with the exception of a few constituencies.

However I hope you are not suggesting that Uhuru is the successor of Moi on those tactics. Otherwise you would need to explain ODM seats better than MPs defecting = votes.

Without understanding the tribal, regional and clan make-up you aint going nowhere. That I think has been the failure of Raila. He has been trying to create a national mass movement akin to NARC/ODM revolution of 2002-2007 - but that works only a few times - like Obamawave -most of the time folks default to tribal/racial cocoons!

I now conclude that you don't know Raila and you never did. Hint: Why do you think Moi after detaining him in 1997 after elections Kibaki entered talks with Moi for Nusu-Mkate. But Moi not only waited for Raila's overtures, when they didn't come he personally went to his house to cut the deal. The NIS had told him Raila had expanded his network beyond their ability to monitor and was going to make Nairobi and Mombasa ungovernable. The day Uhuru goes to a far off place like Marsabit and enters a home at night unannounced and is welcome like the long lost son is the day you can sell that denigration of Raila to me. These things come from being born in a home where you are under 24/7 surveillance and have to deliver messages and oil your dad's connections. Uhuru had no such "luck".

NASA is not interested in the governorship in Meru so save your energy.

[Nefertiti]

Meru are a GEMA outlier and that is why Uhuru is hesitant to back Kiraitu. The message to Kikuyu cousins is you have the PORK vote the local politics is not your business. It's how the ODM MPs won. It's not simply Imenti vs Tigania... clan math has been muddled by Munya "it's Ameru turn" ruse which he has done by claiming Kiraitu is Ruto's project. With his careful selection of PNU (Kibaki nostalgia) Munya has turned out to be quite the tactician. Don't count him out so fast.

[Nefertiti]

Kiraitu faces NASA chants in Igembe... don't be surprised to see one or two NASA MPs, PNU governor while Jubilee gets 99% PORK votes.

[RV Pundit]

Pretty possible. Maoka Maore shifted to NASA in Igembe North which also support Munya. But I think Kiraitu wins this by sheer might of Imenti vote. But will see maybe for once Meru will buck the trend?

Kiraitu faces NASA chants in Igembe... don't be surprised to see one or two NASA MPs, PNU governor while Jubilee gets 99% PORK votes.