Omollo - Machakos aka masaku iko shida

[RV Pundit]

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[patel]

whats the level of unemployment in Machakos?

[Omollo]

The meet started way early because of fears of the rains.  If you look at later photos or had followed on periscope you'd see the crowd multiply.  Mutua also used his powers to deny them access to Kenyatta stadium.  They got permission to use the golf course and that came late. People had been trying to get into Kenyatta stadium and being repulsed by a combined force of police and mutuas private army of kanjos

[Omollo]

We have a MSM problem. It was figured by a most unlikely source: KBC
Here is Citizen with a photo of Raila in Machakos. Keep an eye on what they call in the army "Head Dress":

[Omollo]

[RV Pundit]

Machakos iko shida. First the two const of Kathiani and Mavoko are essentially part of Nairobi. Then Kalonzo and Muthama are reading from different scripts. And Dr Mutua- who is pro-Jubilee has clearly done something admirable in Machakos.Finally Jubilee has about all current MPS running on it's ticket. Those are 4 head-winds NASA are running into - and the pictures of NASA addressing crowd of about 1,000 people is clearly manifestation they need to spend time there.

I think Uhuru will score 20-30% of Machakos at this rate.

[RV Pundit]

[Omollo]

This is laughable. However I will help you out - not that you will pay attention:

1. Muthama
Muthama is heavily invested in NASA to the extent that he was key in convincing Kalonzo to stay on the ticket as per 2013. He had toyed with the idea of running for Governor of Machakos like all Senators. He was however not too pleased with the decision to give the ticket to Wavinya Ndeti. All is very local politics as both are from Kangundo - a lot of sensibilities there.

However Muthama is interested in a big job under Raila which he knows he will get. If he does not get one of those CS posts earmarked for Wiper, he will land one independent of Wiper. I have not figured out what post he wants. But being Raila's close friend it could be any.

The reason he quit the Senate run for real is when Jubilee decided to bankroll his ex wife to run for Woman's Rep. Jubilee never learns and think they can ride roughshod with anybody. This has hurt them more than the time they tried to sponsor Mutula's wife to run against his children. He decided to keep a decent distance from it as he knew Jubilee was giving his wife a platform to throw insults and smear him.

As an aside, I would have added a chapter in Machiavelli's The Prince. Though he warns princes to keep off the wives of their subjects with specific reference to having sexual relations with them, I would add any kind of involvement - even sponsoring them in a political run directed at the husband or ex husband. For in such matters, Men Never forgive and would use the rest of their lives to exact revenge. Ruto is young enough to be a witness when it happens.

1B: Reading from different scripts: Here you practiced Kenyan tabloid journalism. Let me illustrate: Kabogo and Waititu are reading from different scripts; Mandago and Others on one side and Buzeki and Others on the other are reading from different scripts. Should I lose my head and actually believe Mandago would stand in a rally and tell his supporters to vote for NASA? If he will then please be prepared to harvest votes in Machakos. These are the small things you say that transform you from a Pundit to a Propagandist like Kagwanja, Ngunyi and Waiganjo. No objectivity whatever! Muthama is campaigning for NASA. Just like both Khalwale and Oparanya are campaigning for NASA even as they spit at each other.

2. Kathiani and Mavoko: You mean Greater Kangundo. Well how about this: Kiambu is basically 1/3 in Nairobi. Does it mean the demographics change so much that it votes NASA? Your reasoning is that as soon as an area is in Nairobi, it fills up with Jubilee supporters!

Keep in mind one thing: There is no Capital City in Africa that votes for the incumbent!

3. Mutua: I have already discussed Dr. Mutua and see no reason to add. If you are giving him more money hoping he will get you votes, stop it because he is busy fixing his life after office. He set up MCC to cash in on the defecting and defeated candidates. Read his so called book. I think Uhuru figured him out the day he asked his security to stop him following him around, saying "Mutau is irritating people" . (ana wachochea halafu wanaturukia sisi bure)

4.pictures of NASA addressing crowd of about 1,000 people is clearly manifestation they need to spend time there. The media has been doing a bit of photoshopping. How can the four people be photographed in Machakos wearing white, blue and orange hats in the same meeting?

5. Machakos - Uhuru will score 20-30% of Machakos at this rate: Won't that be a climb up Everest?

Machakos - Uhuru Kenyatta - TNA  -  35,660  - 09.7%
Makueni --- Uhuru Kenyatta  - TNA - 12,652  - 05.0%

Machakos iko shida. First the two const of Kathiani and Mavoko are essentially part of Nairobi. Then Kalonzo and Muthama are reading from different scripts. And Dr Mutua- who is pro-Jubilee has clearly done something admirable in Machakos.Finally Jubilee has about all current MPS running on it's ticket. Those are 4 head-winds NASA are running into - and the pictures of NASA addressing crowd of about 1,000 people is clearly manifestation they need to spend time there.

I think Uhuru will score 20-30% of Machakos at this rate.

[RV Pundit]

Omollo - that long tirade - Kiambu 10% or about will certainly vote NASA - they are about 8% Kambas (esp in Thika) and lots of Luos-Luhyas-Gusii in the outskirts of Nairobi/Kiambu who will vote NASA. I think the same applies for Machakos - Lots of gema+kalenjin now call home mavoko all the way to Machakos turn off/Konza - and all the way to Tala - and all the way until you cross thika-garissa roads. Those are a lot of votes.

Uhuru got 10% in 2013 - now with all the problems (muthuma-kalonzo domestic issues, mutua chap chap proving Kalonzo has done nothing in mwingi for 40yrs - I won't be suprised to see NASA fortunes dip further - and Uhuru could even get 20%.

Note that he needs those votes...in my rough MOAS I have kept his votes at 10% of Machakos like in 2013! - might have to raise it to 15%.

[Omollo]

I have explained Machakos. I can add nothing more.