2017 - Rough MOAS : Improving turn out in NASA stronghold won't help.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit got many hotly contested places like Narok,  Bomet and Meru governor MOAS right. There were no credible claims of rigging there. Meru went down to the clan wire contra to my expectation.

I don't recall Pundit's prediction for Busia governor which would be interesting. Because both top contenders were NASA leaning so noone can cry rigging.

Omollo's PORK MOAS were also correct but lacked deep breakdown. He had Raila & NASA winning within his margin of error. We poked a few holes and readjusted to a square Raila loss.

NASA strategist David Ndii also tweeted a Raila loss that he quickly withdrew.

[RV Pundit]

Final MOAS was here http://www.nipate.org/index.php?topic=4710.0 - which was about 1 month to election - for pork I predicted 53% versus against 46% - final was 54% verus 45%.
And I think I did Final final MOAS - about a week to elections.

Pundit got many hotly contested places like Narok,  Bomet and Meru governor MOAS right. There were no credible claims of rigging there. Meru went down to the clan wire contra to my expectation.

I don't recall Pundit's prediction for Busia governor which would be interesting. Because both top contenders were NASA leaning so noone can cry rigging.

Omollo's PORK MOAS were also correct but lacked deep breakdown. He had Raila & NASA winning within his margin of error. We poked a few holes and readjusted to a square Raila loss.

NASA strategist David Ndii also tweeted a Raila loss that he quickly withdrew.

[RV Pundit]

Robina & Omollo - Here is MOAS on governors versus IEBC - obviously both of you or anybody else never came close.

[RV Pundit]

For more comparison including senate - got 39 right - and 8 wrong - find them here http://www.nipate.org/index.php?topic=5108.msg39094#msg39094

Most of the places I got wrong - were northern kenya - Isiolo to Lamus - in 2022  - need some more work there.

[Nefertiti]

Omollo will say half the Jubilee governors were rigged in by Chirchir and you so it's pointless. Omollo offers no logic for Ruto to rig in Alfred Mutua.

Robina & Omollo - Here is MOAS on governors versus IEBC - obviously both of you or anybody else never came close.

[Omollo]

Ruto had nothing to do with it and nowhere have I remotely suggested that Chirchir was working expressly for Ruto.

Omollo will say half the Jubilee governors were rigged in by Chirchir and you so it's pointless. Omollo offers no logic for Ruto to rig in Alfred Mutua.

[Omollo]

When you first parted yourself on the back and invited me and others to join in, I recall clearly stating that one can not use contaminated and condemned results to determine the accuracy of your predictions or lack of it. For example can one say you were right that Mutua would win? Since we know he stole the seat, should you be awarded marks for that?

Like I said you simply reported on the rigging plans and went as far as to suggest 52% before landing on 53%. There was also "Professor" Cheeseman and Hornby who were both working for Cambridge Analytica saying the same thing as you.

Please we are not that stupid.

For more comparison including senate - got 39 right - and 8 wrong - find them here http://www.nipate.org/index.php?topic=5108.msg39094#msg39094

Most of the places I got wrong - were northern kenya - Isiolo to Lamus - in 2022  - need some more work there.

[RV Pundit]

 Pundit Senate prediction versus Chirchir algorithm

Ruto had nothing to do with it and nowhere have I remotely suggested that Chirchir was working expressly for Ruto.

Omollo will say half the Jubilee governors were rigged in by Chirchir and you so it's pointless. Omollo offers no logic for Ruto to rig in Alfred Mutua.

[RV Pundit]

All the credible pollster predicted a Mutua win. I had no reason to dissent. In kenya pollster would get it right if they were to factor tribe/sub-tribe/clan in some form of stratified sampling. MOAS won't exist if they did that. They would be more accurate & predictable.

For example can one say you were right that Mutua would win? Since we know he stole the seat, should you be awarded marks for that?

[Omollo]

That is another point I found extremely suspect. On one hand you were dismissing the polls out of hand - especially when favorable to NASA. But when it came to Mutua you simply said AMEN! That is very suspicious.

All the credible pollster predicted a Mutua win. I had no reason to dissent. In kenya pollster would get it right if they were to factor tribe/sub-tribe/clan in some form of stratified sampling. MOAS won't exist if they did that. They would be more accurate & predictable.

For example can one say you were right that Mutua would win? Since we know he stole the seat, should you be awarded marks for that?

[RV Pundit]

Tactician and others who want to questions the proffesori of kenya politics start from here.