2017 - Rough MOAS : Improving turn out in NASA stronghold won't help.

[RV Pundit]

I have played with turn out - and it doesn't change nothing - 1% change is not small matter. MOAS difference is 8% - 1m plus votes. NASA win is impossible.

How someone can model higher turnout in NASA but not lower turnout in Jubilee... or MRC but not ICC... I mean we know which of these two was a bigger force in 2013. This election is a toss-up.

Pundit - prepare for NASA victory - and bye bye Arap Ruto - unless Uhuru rigs.

[RV Pundit]

I had given Uhuru 12% - which is 1/3 of tiff -- let wait for Synovate/IPSOS final poll tomorrow - but I am inclined to do a final MOAS -- Machakos/Kitui/Makueni - might put 20% - but not when I do that - it won't change the %. It remains 53% versus 46%. If I do 30% - then we get 54% versus 45%.

Pundito, how much are you giving Jubilee in Machaa
Tifa's 37% looks optimistic

Invalid Tweet ID

[Nefertiti]

Pundit model 70% GEMA-Kalenjin turnout and see... lower Jubilee turnout is BIG ELEPHANT you have not addressed.

[Kadame5]

Pundit model 70% GEMA-Kalenjin turnout and see... lower Jubilee turnout is BIG ELEPHANT you have not addressed.

Pundit is always saying something to the effect that rigging in the strong-holds is guaranteed: I guess this means that actual voter turnout does not matter. They will be "filled" to the needed levels.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit model 70% GEMA-Kalenjin turnout and see... lower Jubilee turnout is BIG ELEPHANT you have not addressed.

Pundit is always saying something to the effect that rigging in the strong-holds is guaranteed: I guess this means that actual voter turnout does not matter. They will be "filled" to the needed levels.

Exactly he models stuffing. More crucially he ignores big GOTV forces like ICC - which he has replaced with SGR/development - while fully acknowledging MRC. He is not properly objective.

[RV Pundit]

IF WAJIR OR ISIOLO OR MARSABIT HAD 86% IN 2013--WHAT MAKES YOU THINK GEMA AND RV WILL HAVE 70%.yOURE NUTS. TURN OUT IS NO LONGER AN ISSUES. NATIONAL AVERAGE IS 86%.GEMA and Kalenjin are about 90% - just 4% more than average. Luo Nyanza around 92%. i am predicting something close to 89% turn out...is possible...meaning turn out advantage is gone. governor races is the reason....plus those others seats..that seem to be drawing people to voting both.

Previously only tribes of the presidential candidate would be excited to vote - now with governor - nearly everyone has something to vote for-- so for now it's 86% everyone - and 90% for those with presidential candidates.

Pundit model 70% GEMA-Kalenjin turnout and see... lower Jubilee turnout is BIG ELEPHANT you have not addressed.

Pundit is always saying something to the effect that rigging in the strong-holds is guaranteed: I guess this means that actual voter turnout does not matter. They will be "filled" to the needed levels.

Exactly he models stuffing. More crucially he ignores big GOTV forces like ICC - which he has replaced with SGR/development - while fully acknowledging MRC. He is not properly objective.

[Nefertiti]

So you say.

Sorry turnout is anything but a given. Mandera we know at least was stuffed - which you swiftly degraded to rumors - while admitting now and then that "strongholds" and "remote areas" are likely to be rigged. NASA has been fighting tooth and nail to thwart rigging - and that plus ICC are the biggest news since 2013. You must think we are fools to believe Raila can spend sleepless nights hammering IEBC and insisting electoral reforms - instead of campaigning.

Uhuru unlike Kibaki & Moi cannot rig - without KDF or such brazen methods - because most loopholes are sealed. And no ICC... 2013 in Kiambu one could not buy kumi kumi or even sukuma - without ink stain on the little finger - because "lazima tuokoe kijana yetu". No such thing this time... meaning drunkards won't have to vote.

RVGEMA turnout as the big elephant. Soon we shall see.

[RV Pundit]

Confirmed. You're another omollosque nut case.First look at MOAS and focus on the turn out column - see if there is any big difference btw counties. Have you even cared to look at turn out data - 2013 - and all historical data - since 92 - like I have looked at. I have increased turn out for places that had low turn out - coast+turkana - and in my final MOAS - I may move the average from 86% to 89% - coz I think turn out will be as crazy as 2013. Before that average turn out was 50-60-70- 72 - around those figures.

What changed in 2013 - was six seats - I doubt people then knew how impactful governors esp were going to be - so I expect really high turn out everywhere - we could see near 90% - 70% turn out in RV/GEMA is really crazy. Go slow on bhang.

So you say.

Sorry turnout is anything but a given. Mandera we know at least was stuffed - which you swiftly degraded to rumors - while admitting now and then that "strongholds" and "remote areas" are likely to be rigged. NASA has been fighting tooth and nail to thwart rigging - and that plus ICC are the biggest news since 2013. You must think we are fools to believe Raila can spend sleepless nights hammering IEBC and insisting electoral reforms - instead of campaigning.

Uhuru unlike Kibaki & Moi cannot rig - without KDF or such brazen methods - because most loopholes are sealed. And no ICC... 2013 in Kiambu one could not buy kumi kumi or even sukuma - without ink stain on the little finger - because "lazima tuokoe kijana yetu". No such thing this time... meaning drunkards won't have to vote.

RVGEMA turnout as the big elephant. Soon we shall see.

[Nefertiti]

What happened in 2013 is ICC - not governor - which explains the dismal turnout in Turkana & Coast who couldn't bothered... while extra high in stuffed Mandera where Uhuru had 90%. 

In 2017, oil and such bread & butter issues may make Turkana to show up big time anti-Jubilee... but their low total makes even 100% turnout irrelevant anyway.

Now in RVGEMA - without ICC - there is nothing life-or-death like Moi or Matiba as folks have watched many transitions with their sons at the top... unlike Luos who have chip on the shoulder and very sour grapes about 20 more years of Kikuyu & Kalenjin. Their homework is to successfully co-opt Luhyas, Kisii, Mijikenda, etc.

Those historical trends you prop up were driven by factors of the day. Nomads & starving & ill-informed people would worry about food and safety... instead of voting... or well  back the benevolent govt.

It really is just opinion you see? Nothing magical about yours. Go slow on muguka.

Confirmed. You're another omollosque nut case.First look at MOAS and focus on the turn out column - see if there is any big difference btw counties. Have you even cared to look at turn out data - 2013 - and all historical data - since 92 - like I have looked at. I have increased turn out for places that had low turn out - coast+turkana - and in my final MOAS - I may move the average from 86% to 89% - coz I think turn out will be as crazy as 2013. Before that average turn out was 50-60-70- 72 - around those figures.

What changed in 2013 - was six seats - I doubt people then knew how impactful governors esp were going to be - so I expect really high turn out everywhere - we could see near 90% - 70% turn out in RV/GEMA is really crazy. Go slow on bhang.

[Nefertiti]

Recall how we ended up with 700 voters per polling station... after all the photo ops btwn Duale, Kiraitu & Orengo that agreed to send home Isaak Hassan - Jubilee took an about turn and revised 500 to 700. They wanted NASA to take the bait and call for mass action - take to the street during voter registration season  - which NASA quickly smelled the rat and called their bluff. Classic sleight of hand. That was their best card in 2013 - plus ICC of course.

Now if dead voters are stopped from voting - you can see why only "historical turnout" - 89% - can help Jubilee. Because people have discovered devolution is so great... never mind empty unga shelves.

[RV Pundit]

500 max would mean maybe 60-70K polling station - budgetary implication would be huge. You're seeing ghost everywhere like omollo. 1 week and we will know for sure the turn out. So let this rest for now. Do you own MOAS if you disagree.

Recall how we ended up with 700 voters per polling station... after all the photo ops btwn Duale, Kiraitu & Orengo that agreed to send home Isaak Hassan - Jubilee took an about turn and revised 500 to 700. They wanted NASA to take the bait and call for mass action - take to the street during voter registration season  - which NASA quickly smelled the rat and called their bluff. Classic sleight of hand. That was their best card in 2013 - plus ICC of course.

Now if dead voters are stopped from voting - you can see why only "historical turnout" - 89% - can help Jubilee. Because people have discovered devolution is so great... never mind empty unga shelves.

[Nefertiti]

More stormy weather in Punditville...




https://www.tuko.co.ke/248183-latest-poll-shows-governor-mombasa-machakos-meru-counties.html

[Nefertiti]

Mutua hangs on against surging Wavinya Ndeti.

[vooke]

Robina, the same polls give Uhunye 37% for Machaa. That's insane by all stretch of imagination. So don't discredit MOAS on account of an opinion poll.

[Nefertiti]

Hi Pastor -

My conscience is clear. I only disagree with the MOAS on turnout and a few governors & counties, namely Meru, Tharaka, Kwale, Turkana

Meru - polls consistently support my position on Munya Meruism's supremacy while MOAS are stuck on sub-tribes.

I also have beef with Nairobi MOAS where I believe the Raila 56% v 40% Uhuru poll makes perfect sense unlike MOAS borrowing from 2013 illogically.

Only low Jubilee ngome turnout can flip the outcome... this possibility makes this election a tossup.

Robina, the same polls give Uhunye 37% for Machaa. That's insane by all stretch of imagination. So don't discredit MOAS on account of an opinion poll.

[vooke]

Hi Pastor -

My conscience is clear. I only disagree with the MOAS on turnout and a few governors & counties, namely Meru, Tharaka, Kwale, Turkana

Meru - polls consistently support my position on Munya Meruism's supremacy while MOAS are stuck on sub-tribes.

I also have beef with Nairobi MOAS where I believe the Raila 56% v 40% Uhuru poll makes perfect sense unlike MOAS borrowing from 2013 illogically.

Only low Jubilee ngome turnout can flip the outcome... this possibility makes this election a tossup.

Robina, the same polls give Uhunye 37% for Machaa. That's insane by all stretch of imagination. So don't discredit MOAS on account of an opinion poll.

What turnout do you have in mind for Jubilee strongholds on average?

[Nefertiti]

Hi Pastor -

My conscience is clear. I only disagree with the MOAS on turnout and a few governors & counties, namely Meru, Tharaka, Kwale, Turkana

Meru - polls consistently support my position on Munya Meruism's supremacy while MOAS are stuck on sub-tribes.

I also have beef with Nairobi MOAS where I believe the Raila 56% v 40% Uhuru poll makes perfect sense unlike MOAS borrowing from 2013 illogically.

Only low Jubilee ngome turnout can flip the outcome... this possibility makes this election a tossup.

Robina, the same polls give Uhunye 37% for Machaa. That's insane by all stretch of imagination. So don't discredit MOAS on account of an opinion poll.

What turnout do you have in mind for Jubilee strongholds on average?

80% - like other SSA democracies - TZ, Ghana, RSA, etc.

[einstein_g]

TIFA's prediction for the Malindi by-election was within their stated +/- 2% error margin.

Also, they correctly predicted Jubilee's Kiambu primaries, which Infotrak got horribly wrong.

As has been stated here, TIFA is led by the former MD of Ipsos Kenya, who was replaced by the Kiswahili speaking mzungu.

http://tifaresearch.com/index.php/2016/03/09/tifa-got-it-right-in-the-malindi-by-election/

[RV Pundit]

Interesting.. will relook Maggie stew again.

[RV Pundit]

Both Maggy and Angela agree on Machakos