2017 - Rough MOAS : Improving turn out in NASA stronghold won't help.

[vooke]

Pundit, look al shabab analysis of RV from Nairobi Law Monthly

Stumbled upon this incisive analysis of Rift Valley politics after NASA Eld storm on why @IsaacRutoGov must never be underrated #BeyondUhuru pic.twitter.com/NlZ2osE9p1

— Kenya West (@KinyanBoy) July 27, 2017

[RV Pundit]

Hiyo ni bangi. Isaac and NASA are trending towards single digit as we speak in Kipsigis land. Shida ya Isaac ni kubwa - he basically did nothing with devolved money - so his mashinani call rings very very hollow.

Pundit, look al shabab analysis of RV from Nairobi Law Monthly

Stumbled upon this incisive analysis of Rift Valley politics after NASA Eld storm on why @IsaacRutoGov must never be underrated #BeyondUhuru pic.twitter.com/NlZ2osE9p1

— Kenya West (@KinyanBoy) July 27, 2017

[Omollo]

I would not dismiss the many Kalenjin Leaders that Ruto had sidelined who have now joined NASA. With Mandago joining them openly only an ostrich would continue burying its head in beach sand as the hyenas scream towards it.

Note that the author being dismissed as high on weed, wrote this long before Mandago came out openly in revolt.

Pundit

It is unbecoming of you to hurl insults at a person instead of countering his arguments. Where I spend most of my life, it is recorded as nothing said; no defence offered and the contentious opinion goes on record as uncontested. It is simple to strike ad hominem off the record.

[RV Pundit]

Where I come from - people wait for 10 days - if they don't trust what I am telling them. I am not new here or in my punditry. My record speaks for itself.

I would not dismiss the many Kalenjin Leaders that Ruto had sidelined who have now joined NASA. With Mandago joining them openly only an ostrich would continue burying its head in beach sand as the hyenas scream towards it.

Note that the author being dismissed as high on weed, wrote this long before Mandago came out openly in revolt.

Pundit

It is unbecoming of you to hurl insults at a person instead of countering his arguments. Where I spend most of my life, it is recorded as nothing said; no defence offered and the contentious opinion goes on record as uncontested. It is simple to strike ad hominem off the record.

[vooke]

I would not dismiss the many Kalenjin Leaders that Ruto had sidelined who have now joined NASA. With Mandago joining them openly only an ostrich would continue burying its head in beach sand as the hyenas scream towards it.

Note that the author being dismissed as high on weed, wrote this long before Mandago came out openly in revolt.

Pundit

It is unbecoming of you to hurl insults at a person instead of countering his arguments. Where I spend most of my life, it is recorded as nothing said; no defence offered and the contentious opinion goes on record as uncontested. It is simple to strike ad hominem off the record.

Omorlo
Can RVs be so disgusted with Kikuyus that they literally walk off of DPORK into an ambiguous position by a less influential Rutto?

The analysis here seems to me to have started with wishful thinking followed by judicious search for a smoking gun

[RV Pundit]

Raila will get less Kalenjin votes than he got in 2013... ground 411.Kalenjin are very strategic.Might have to revise Moas a little bit.i really pity Isaac.

[Kichwa]

That's not possible because WSR got the maximum possible Kalenjin support in 2013.  With Kanu and CCM and Oruto fatigue, he has to get less this time around.  Your problem is that you think no change took place since 2013.  The only thing you can bet on is change.

Raila will get less Kalenjin votes than he got in 2013... ground 411.Kalenjin are very strategic.Might have to revise Moas a little bit.i really pity Isaac.

[RV Pundit]

Kichwa I won't be pundit if I didn't know how to read politics

[Kichwa]

Your track record is bogus. You are stuck with Mutai Ngunyi's tyranny of numbers of 2013 which even Ngunyi has already abandoned.  This campaign is about high cost of living, poverty that has afflicted many Kenyans, hunger, corruption and exclusion. Its not about tribal politics which is your specialty.

Kichwa I won't be pundit if I didn't know how to read politics

[RV Pundit]

Of course on the 9th - after tribal moas is confirmed - you'll claimed it was rigged. Even when the issues is an ISSUE (like constitution) - leave alone election - kenyans will vote tribe. Even if we did a national referendum on abortion - I can easily develop Moas - after listening to what Uhuru, Raila, Ruto, Kalonzo, Mudavadi,Wetangula and all the key players will say --If Raila say he supports abortion - nearly all Luos will support it - ignoring their religious teaching. The Luos will cook a lot of excuses or reasons for voting for abortion - but at end of the day - we will know they are voting because Raila said so. The same is true for Kalenjin or GEMA.

I mean we saw in 2010 - when all churches - catholic and name the big ones - opposed the constitution - but nobody listened to them. In 2010 - I did MOAS that showed NO -33% yes 67%--and it came down to 31% versus 68%.

Your track record is bogus. You are stuck with Mutai Ngunyi's tyranny of numbers of 2013 which even Ngunyi has already abandoned.  This campaign is about high cost of living, poverty that has afflicted many Kenyans, hunger, corruption and exclusion. Its not about tribal politics which is your specialty.

[Nefertiti]

My take on MOAS: they will largely hold... BUT

1. Lower turnout in GEMA and Kalenjin may send them into a spin. I think lack of ICC is a big factor than you (Pundit) imagine. You say you have modeled higher turnout in Coast and Turkana due to MRC. How do you factor MRC and not ICC?

2. Swing counties - you have some of these wrong. I agree with Omollo Turkana will vote 80% NASA... due to oil. You make much of defections to Jubilee here - most of them were obtained through bribery and will have little effect on the voters. However this will not dent the outcome due to their low population.

3. Governors - same as 2 above. A significant number of your projections won't pun out. With just 2013 experience - when veterans like Kiraitu thought Senate is powerful - I don't think you have mastered county. That is why you are getting places like Turkana & Bungoma so wrong. At least Kwale, Turkana, Meru, Tharaka your MOAS will fail.

[Kichwa]

MOAS is all about ouruto winning.  If Ouru does not win then MOAS has failed Period.

My take on MOAS: they will largely hold... BUT

1. Lower turnout in GEMA and Kalenjin may send them into a spin. I think lack of ICC is a big factor than you (Pundit) imagine. You say you have modeled higher turnout in Coast and Turkana due to MRC. How do you factor MRC and not ICC?

2. Swing counties - you have some of these wrong. I agree with Omollo Turkana will vote 80% NASA... due to oil. You make much of defections to Jubilee here - most of them were obtained through bribery and will have little effect on the voters. However this will not dent the outcome due to their low population.

3. Governors - same as 2 above. A significant number of your projections won't pun out. With just 2013 experience - when veterans like Kiraitu thought Senate is powerful - I don't think you have mastered county. That is why you are getting places like Turkana & Bungoma so wrong. At least Kwale, Turkana, Meru, Tharaka your MOAS will fail.

[RV Pundit]

1). There was high turn out everywhere...highest in Luo Nyanza..but even in counties nobody thought they would turn up...they all turn up around 86%..Kalenjn+GEMA turned up slightly higher than that...historically they've been turning out higher than national average...I see no reason to change this.

2) Turkana - I disagree - I think Turkana will listen to their leaders -- majority who quit to join Jubilee - but still Raila will win but by less margins than 2013 -- that NANOK is winning by 77% is clearly doggy polls.

3) Governors - Clearly it no easy task to predict 47 elections - I'd be happy if I get 3/4 right.

My take on MOAS: they will largely hold... BUT

1. Lower turnout in GEMA and Kalenjin may send them into a spin. I think lack of ICC is a big factor than you (Pundit) imagine. You say you have modeled higher turnout in Coast and Turkana due to MRC. How do you factor MRC and not ICC?

2. Swing counties - you have some of these wrong. I agree with Omollo Turkana will vote 80% NASA... due to oil. You make much of defections to Jubilee here - most of them were obtained through bribery and will have little effect on the voters. However this will not dent the outcome due to their low population.

3. Governors - same as 2 above. A significant number of your projections won't pun out. With just 2013 experience - when veterans like Kiraitu thought Senate is powerful - I don't think you have mastered county. That is why you are getting places like Turkana & Bungoma so wrong. At least Kwale, Turkana, Meru, Tharaka your MOAS will fail.

[RV Pundit]

I see you ignored this...
Of course on the 9th - after tribal moas is confirmed - you'll claimed it was rigged. Even when the issues is an ISSUE (like constitution) - leave alone election - kenyans will vote tribe. Even if we did a national referendum on abortion - I can easily develop Moas - after listening to what Uhuru, Raila, Ruto, Kalonzo, Mudavadi,Wetangula and all the key players will say --If Raila say he supports abortion - nearly all Luos will support it - ignoring their religious teaching. The Luos will cook a lot of excuses or reasons for voting for abortion - but at end of the day - we will know they are voting because Raila said so. The same is true for Kalenjin or GEMA.

I mean we saw in 2010 - when all churches - catholic and name the big ones - opposed the constitution - but nobody listened to them. In 2010 - I did MOAS that showed NO -33% yes 67%--and it came down to 31% versus 68%.

MOAS is all about ouruto winning.  If Ouru does not win then MOAS has failed Period.

[Kichwa]

On the 9th, MOAS will be dead and buried. MOAS is all about 2013 rigged elections.  NOT happening again.

I see you ignored this...
Of course on the 9th - after tribal moas is confirmed - you'll claimed it was rigged. Even when the issues is an ISSUE (like constitution) - leave alone election - kenyans will vote tribe. Even if we did a national referendum on abortion - I can easily develop Moas - after listening to what Uhuru, Raila, Ruto, Kalonzo, Mudavadi,Wetangula and all the key players will say --If Raila say he supports abortion - nearly all Luos will support it - ignoring their religious teaching. The Luos will cook a lot of excuses or reasons for voting for abortion - but at end of the day - we will know they are voting because Raila said so. The same is true for Kalenjin or GEMA.

I mean we saw in 2010 - when all churches - catholic and name the big ones - opposed the constitution - but nobody listened to them. In 2010 - I did MOAS that showed NO -33% yes 67%--and it came down to 31% versus 68%.

MOAS is all about ouruto winning.  If Ouru does not win then MOAS has failed Period.

[vooke]

On the 9th, MOAS will be dead and buried. MOAS is all about 2013 rigged elections.  NOT happening again.

I see you ignored this...
Of course on the 9th - after tribal moas is confirmed - you'll claimed it was rigged. Even when the issues is an ISSUE (like constitution) - leave alone election - kenyans will vote tribe. Even if we did a national referendum on abortion - I can easily develop Moas - after listening to what Uhuru, Raila, Ruto, Kalonzo, Mudavadi,Wetangula and all the key players will say --If Raila say he supports abortion - nearly all Luos will support it - ignoring their religious teaching. The Luos will cook a lot of excuses or reasons for voting for abortion - but at end of the day - we will know they are voting because Raila said so. The same is true for Kalenjin or GEMA.

I mean we saw in 2010 - when all churches - catholic and name the big ones - opposed the constitution - but nobody listened to them. In 2010 - I did MOAS that showed NO -33% yes 67%--and it came down to 31% versus 68%.

MOAS is all about ouruto winning.  If Ouru does not win then MOAS has failed Period.

So if MOAS works you will shout rigging, and if it doesn't, you will shout issues?
Either rigging or issues will carry the day.
This is the NASWA's mindset; either they win or their victory is stolen.

[Globalcitizen12]

Your track record is bogus. You are stuck with Mutai Ngunyi's tyranny of numbers of 2013 which even Ngunyi has already abandoned.  This campaign is about high cost of living, poverty that has afflicted many Kenyans, hunger, corruption and exclusion. Its not about tribal politics which is your specialty.

Kichwa I won't be pundit if I didn't know how to read politics

Mutahi stole the idea the tyranny of numbers from Choo.com.. When Pundit presented his MOAS I commented that it was almost impossible to beat the tribal numbers of TNA then.. The importance of MOAS on political punditry is that it really gives you a baseline. The baseline for Raila is to beat his numbers in RV, Central and Meru.. He has also to improve turnout in COAST areas like Kilifi and make sure that Get out to vote in Ukambani and western improves greatly.. NASA should spend its resources of which I doubt it has to get out to the vote. anyway my gut feeling is that MOAS is right on bulls eye and we will have Uhuru ruto regime for another 15 uninterrupted years

[Globalcitizen12]

Of course on the 9th - after tribal moas is confirmed - you'll claimed it was rigged. Even when the issues is an ISSUE (like constitution) - leave alone election - kenyans will vote tribe. Even if we did a national referendum on abortion - I can easily develop Moas - after listening to what Uhuru, Raila, Ruto, Kalonzo, Mudavadi,Wetangula and all the key players will say --If Raila say he supports abortion - nearly all Luos will support it - ignoring their religious teaching. The Luos will cook a lot of excuses or reasons for voting for abortion - but at end of the day - we will know they are voting because Raila said so. The same is true for Kalenjin or GEMA.

I mean we saw in 2010 - when all churches - catholic and name the big ones - opposed the constitution - but nobody listened to them. In 2010 - I did MOAS that showed NO -33% yes 67%--and it came down to 31% versus 68%.

Your track record is bogus. You are stuck with Mutai Ngunyi's tyranny of numbers of 2013 which even Ngunyi has already abandoned.  This campaign is about high cost of living, poverty that has afflicted many Kenyans, hunger, corruption and exclusion. Its not about tribal politics which is your specialty.

Pundit you are so right.. Kenya tribal identity trumps everything. we are stuck with this voting pattern for another century

[vooke]

Pundito, how much are you giving Jubilee in Machaa
Tifa's 37% looks optimistic

Invalid Tweet ID

[Nefertiti]

How someone can model higher turnout in NASA but not lower turnout in Jubilee... or MRC but not ICC... I mean we know which of these two was a bigger force in 2013. This election is a toss-up.

Pundit - prepare for NASA victory - and bye bye Arap Ruto - unless Uhuru rigs.