Author Topic: 2017 - Rough MOAS : Improving turn out in NASA stronghold won't help. (Read 87489 times)

Globalcitizen12 · « **Reply #140 on:** July 01, 2017, 02:54:37 PM »

Why are Somalis voting for the government? They must be benefiting immensely.

RV Pundit · « **Reply #141 on:** July 01, 2017, 03:02:42 PM »

Yeah - they have Duale - who essentially is 3rd in command - have many ministers/ps/parastal heads - in addition to all billions they are getting from counties - Mandera alone gets 12-15b annually - and I think UhuRuto have also tarmac road in NEP - the road from Garissa to Mandera is nearly done - small sections remain - but a lot of ground has been covered. They also support the war in Somali - because KDF is propping their fellow clansmen Ogaden in Kismaiyo - as opposed to Hawaiyes of Mogadishu who are the Alshabaab.

Quote from: Globalcitizen12 on July 01, 2017, 02:54:37 PM

Why are Somalis voting for the government? They must be benefiting immensely.

Globalcitizen12 · « **Reply #142 on:** July 01, 2017, 03:52:11 PM »

Very interesting. Somalis are very good businessmen so the fact they are benefiting from the spoils of war then I understand why they would want to remain the government.

Omollo · « **Reply #143 on:** July 01, 2017, 06:15:02 PM »

Global

Examine the voting results from last election.

Remember too that Uhuru cannot take credit for Devolution which he and Ruto nearly killed in Naivasha the same day they discarded Provinces (killing Rift Valley) and making the units unviable. Imagine how much cash RV would have had at its command and the power of its Governor? Uhuru simply cheated Ruto (and exploited his hot temper and anger against Raila) to achieve what his father had tried and failed. Kenyatta Snr wanted RV split in to small units some of which would be swallowed by Central either physically or by pumping people in them.

Laikipia is gone, Nakuru is gone and soon Kajiado will follow.

The locals don't see it that way but others have a clear agenda.

Nefertiti · « **Reply #144 on:** July 01, 2017, 09:06:25 PM »

We all know Gema played ODM in Naivasha but for the best. I supported parliamentary system but not the 16-region federalism due to tribalism. Also Kenya is not rich enough for 3-tier system. Devolution is about equity and localizing solutions so Rift Valley "county" would not cut as it is hardly homogeneous as a region. Present counties are perfectly suited for that. Recall they were the former colonial districts - even in the US they are the distinctive administrative units.

Quote from: Omollo on July 01, 2017, 06:15:02 PM

Global

Examine the voting results from last election.

Remember too that Uhuru cannot take credit for Devolution which he and Ruto nearly killed in Naivasha the same day they discarded Provinces (killing Rift Valley) and making the units unviable. Imagine how much cash RV would have had at its command and the power of its Governor? Uhuru simply cheated Ruto (and exploited his hot temper and anger against Raila) to achieve what his father had tried and failed. Kenyatta Snr wanted RV split in to small units some of which would be swallowed by Central either physically or by pumping people in them.

Laikipia is gone, Nakuru is gone and soon Kajiado will follow.

The locals don't see it that way but others have a clear agenda.

RV Pundit · « **Reply #145 on:** July 01, 2017, 09:10:48 PM »

Omollo is of course a pathological liar. 3-tier systems was rejected way before it got to Naivasha. This was through public submission of views and COE had struck it out. I don't see the need of it personally. It serve no purpose. 47 counties in 43 tribes is the good deal. I only hope the few people like Kuria, Sabaots & Baringo's Njemps & Pokot such minorities can be allowed to move to counties they feel comfortable. For example Kuria should join Kisii country from Migori - I think there - they have better chance - Sabaot in Mt elgon should move to TransNzoia. The Genesis of our districts & prov is 1962 - when some Prof went round collecting views and kenyans wanted to have tribal districts.

I hope the next boundary review will be bold to correct the few injustices...by re-drawing boundaries along tribal lines - and for small tribes-asking where they best fit. For example in Baringo - Tiaty should join West Pokot. Njemps should move to Laikipia. Kuria to Kisii. Sabaot to Tranzoia. Iteso are in a mess - if luhyas decides to conspire against them.

Quote from: Robina on July 01, 2017, 09:06:25 PM

We all know Gema played ODM in Naivasha but for the best. I supported parliamentary system but not the 16-region federalism due to tribalism. Also Kenya is not rich enough for 3-tier system. Devolution is about equity and localizing solutions so Rift Valley "county" would not cut as it is hardly homogeneous as a region. Present counties are perfectly suited for that. Recall they were the former colonial districts - even in the US they are the distinctive administrative units.

Nefertiti · « **Reply #146 on:** July 01, 2017, 09:29:35 PM »

After PEV Kenyans are allergic to open tribalism so this is unlikely to fly. That is why the counties defaulted to mzungu districts. Also after the Ligare dupe Gema are unlikely to concede to any reviews that won't favor them.

Quote from: RV Pundit on July 01, 2017, 09:10:48 PM

Omollo is of course a pathological liar. 3-tier systems was rejected way before it got to Naivasha. This was through public submission of views and COE had struck it out. I don't see the need of it personally. It serve no purpose. 47 counties in 43 tribes is the good deal. I only hope the few people like Kuria, Sabaots & Baringo's Njemps & Pokot such minorities can be allowed to move to counties they feel comfortable. For example Kuria should join Kisii country from Migori - I think there - they have better chance - Sabaot in Mt elgon should move to TransNzoia. The Genesis of our districts & prov is 1962 - when some Prof went round collecting views and kenyans wanted to have tribal districts.

I hope the next boundary review will be bold to correct the few injustices...by re-drawing boundaries along tribal lines - and for small tribes-asking where they best fit. For example in Baringo - Tiaty should join West Pokot. Njemps should move to Laikipia. Kuria to Kisii. Sabaot to Tranzoia. Iteso are in a mess - if luhyas decides to conspire against them.

Nefertiti · « **Reply #147 on:** July 01, 2017, 09:46:39 PM »

Omollo why won't Kalonzo pull the lever in Nairobi for Kidero? Imagine if Kalenjin were 17% of Nairobi and smart alec wanted to purloin them to NASA... WSR would camp there.

Quote

RV Pundit · « **Reply #148 on:** July 02, 2017, 09:13:16 AM »

Rough MOAS prediction of the next Parliament (MPs, Women Rep & Senate).
Jubilee to maintain their current 56-58% (160 mps+27 women reps) parliamentary majority. They conducted nomination that was largely perceived as free and fair.
Wiper to lose 10 seats - and drop from 28 to 18 mps. This the price kalonzo has to pay for splintering his ukambani base.
ODM basically will maintain about the same number of MPS - the same ODM nomination was repeated.
I expected independents to double to around 21 - representing 6%.

RV Pundit · « **Reply #149 on:** July 02, 2017, 09:42:06 AM »

MOAS 2nd June.

Kichwa · « **Reply #150 on:** July 02, 2017, 05:53:54 PM »

Quote from: RV Pundit on July 02, 2017, 09:42:06 AM

MOAS 2nd June.

RV Pundit · « **Reply #151 on:** July 08, 2017, 01:58:09 PM »

Globalcitizen12 · « **Reply #152 on:** July 08, 2017, 04:29:49 PM »

Horny is just stealing you moas

Kichwa · « **Reply #153 on:** July 08, 2017, 05:22:30 PM »

I think at this point we can definitely wait for the nane/nane numbers unless you are planning to put some monies with the bookies.

Quote from: Globalcitizen12 on July 08, 2017, 04:29:49 PM

Horny is just stealing you moas

Globalcitizen12 · « **Reply #154 on:** July 09, 2017, 01:26:49 AM »

30 days.. I hope Omollo will also put his MOAS here so that we can compare notes.. Last time the argument was between RV Pundit and some guy monikier.. I cannot remember the guy name. I think this guy went by Poor Kaloi. During counting his model unraveled and all he back his hope on was that Uhuru wont score 50+1.. Poor Kaloi spent time review the constitution and trying to determine what 50+1 meant. After Uhuru attained 50+1 the man went berserk and spun conspiracy that the elections were stolen. After Supreme court he quit in a huff never to be seen back

RV Pundit · « **Reply #155 on:** July 11, 2017, 01:53:35 PM »

National assembly set to be yet again dominated by Jubilee. Jubilee to get around 190 mps(55%),NASA 130 mps and Independent & small parties with 30mps out of 337 elected mps in National Assembly.

RV Pundit · « **Reply #156 on:** July 11, 2017, 02:37:20 PM »

The governor race - at least 17 counties are still battleground according to MOAS.

Omollo · « **Reply #157 on:** July 23, 2017, 09:10:29 PM »

Quote from: RV Pundit on May 31, 2017, 05:54:41 AM

Omollo...try basic maths classes again...and add jubilee column with help of manual calculator.That is crap.You forgot mandera.Assigned bomet and westpokot to battleground while moving garisa and wajir to cord stronghold.tranzoia is not nasa stronghold...it battleground

Interesting recent posts. Do you still think Uhuru will take Nairobi? and that Mandera is a Jubilee zone? How about Bomet? You still have the same views?

I am looking for your MOAS to finally examine the Presidential Vote

Nefertiti · « **Reply #158 on:** July 24, 2017, 11:52:00 PM »

I am surprised Meru is not swing/close... some like Kirinyaga are not even close - Waiguru is way ahead.

Quote from: RV Pundit on July 11, 2017, 02:37:20 PM

The governor race - at least 17 counties are still battleground according to MOAS.

RV Pundit · « **Reply #159 on:** July 25, 2017, 05:07:36 AM »

Look for final moas

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Author Topic: 2017 - Rough MOAS : Improving turn out in NASA stronghold won't help. (Read 87489 times)