Sonko is now being sidelined after he beat ouru's project

[Kichwa]

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If Sonko wins the NBO governorship they will find a way to remove him before his terms ends.  Sonko is now a project himself. Kidero should now tell Nairobians that a vote for Sonko is not really a vote for Sonko. Why couldn't they let Sonko pick his own deputy-someone he can work with.  "Let Sonko be Sonko".  He looks ridiculous trying to look like a gentleman.  He is going to loose if he tries to be someone he is not.

[Nefertiti]

No he won't lose this one's in the bag. His base knows he is doing the make-up to court PK/Kidero supporters and assauge investors. It's the fickle middle class that is being played.

If Sonko wins the NBO governorship they will find a way to remove him before his terms ends.  Sonko is now a project himself. Kidero should now tell Nairobians that a vote fo Sonko is not really a vote for Sonko. Why couldn't they let Sonko pick his own deputy-someone he can work with.  Let Sonko be Sonko.  He looks ridiculous trying to look like a gentleman.  He is going to loose if he tries to be someone he is not.

[Kichwa]

The NBO governor's race is not in Sonko or Kidero's bag Yet.  I truly believe that the picking of a kikuyu running mate is going to make him lose votes from other communities who liked him at a personal level.  Kidero must find a way to exploit this.  Kidero must explain to Sonko's non-kikuyu base that this Sonko is Ouru's project and will be controlled by the Mt. Kenya Mafia.  Kidero must make this perception stick very early in the campaign and the more Sonko wears those suits and tries to be someone he is NOT, the message and the optics will converge to create a lasting perception.  When you will hear Sonko saying that "I am not MKM's project" then you know the perception is starting to stick.

[Nefertiti]

Well, the MKM attempted to rig him out and that outed him as a rebel. I think he has it in the bag because

1. Urban poor base cuts across tribe and know he is still the ruffian they love. This remains intact as the tie-loving Kidero cannot reach them.

2. Kikuyu + Kamba. Kikuyus are with him cause Uhuru but Kambas are the big swing vote. Kidero has been meeting Kamba elders and propping Mueke for 2022. I see them voting Raila and Sonko just like 2013... I would expect Kalonzo to expend significant effort in Nairobi at Raila's pressing.

3. Middle class - most of this is with Kidero and is being wooed with make-up. Most will stick with Kidero as they are repelled by the optics.

4. Investors - Polycarp will convince them not to run with their money to Kidero.

Comes down to keeping the Waititu group plus Kambas.

[gout]

This has been said of Trump since 2015. There is a quote by Taleb to the effect that 'Many are so unoriginal they study history to find mistakes to repeat'

[Kichwa]

Elections are like human beings, look the same but each is different.  Sonko is starting off with a lot of advantages over Kidero but Kidero has money to fight and the presidential elections may create a surge one way or the other.  I think we have a race and Sonko is not taking Kidero for granted.

This has been said of Trump since 2015. There is a quote by Taleb to the effect that 'Many are so unoriginal they study history to find mistakes to repeat'

[RV Pundit]

There is no race here. Kidero is being sent to Asumbi asubuhi. Sonko needed to win GEMA (35% plus of the vote ---Kikuyus alone 33%) and then he'll add to his own Kambas, jubilee leaning nairobeans and the slum folks - I mean this won't be even close. It doesn't help kidero has absolutely failed as Nairobi governor. I mean Nairobi under devolution seem worse off than before -- which is such a feet considering all counties have seen some tremendous changes under county system - Sonko rescue team seem to have done more than Kidero who got nothing to show.

This will be a rout. I am predicting worse case for Sonko will be 60%.He can possibly get 65%.

Elections are like human beings, look the same but each is different.  Sonko is starting off with a lot of advantages over Kidero but Kidero has money to fight and the presidential elections may create a surge one way or the other.  I think we have a race and Sonko is not taking Kidero for granted.

[Omollo]

Peter Kenneth is announcing his independent run tomorrow. I guess he'll not take any votes from Sonko.

I don't like speculation so I'll stick to facts. If GEMA is 35% and he takes half i don't see how he avoids the Mbaru situation.

That aside there is a relevant parallel in Kakamega and Mombasa. Khalwale is popular in Kakamega with the same type of voters as Sonko. He doesn't bribe them but speaks their language. He is losing to Oparanya by morning. Why? Because if he ran for senate again he wouldn't need to campaign. Oparanya is corrupt but then people still prefer him for governor and don't imagine Khalwale as an administrator running a budget.

In Mombasa Omar Hassan would have had a chance in 2022 if he accepted to be Joho running mate. For now he is respected as a legislator but not one to run a budget.

I see Sonko in the same light. People I speak to say he's a good senator but they feel he lacks the gravitas to run the largest budget after that of the national government. The running mate has made kambas recoil because the message going to Kikuyus is that Sonko will wear his bling blings while Ithage streals for Kirubo. That he's a project imposed on Sonko is clear.

I predict 38% for Sonko. Kidero returns with 52%. When the campaigns kick off I'll return with a more accurate figure.

[Globalcitizen12]

SONKO will lose to Kidero.