Sonko's influence has waned somewhat. If it were before 2014 he would pulverized PK.
I think it will go to the wire. I am conscious of the desire by Ruto not to have a threat from within Jubilee. I don't think he would ignore the climbing Sonko.
On Kamba votes: Sonko will claim some but will lose many. Yes some Luhyas and Luos may vote for Sonko just like traditionally Raila gets more Kikuyu votes in Nairobi and Kiambu than anywhere else. That will balance giving the NASA tribes the tie-breaking role.
I am not sure if the many Murang'a Kikuyus will enthusiastically vote for Sonko. There was a lot of bad blood characterized by fights and even one or two deaths. They may abstain or try to screw him by voting Kidero.
Remember Kidero faces no primaries. He will rely on Aladwa and may be Passaris to mobilize some votes. Passaris is no vote winner but then every vote counts.
That said, I have to admit the primaries are no indicator of who will win what.
Kidero is gone. It going to be herculean task to beat GEMA(33%)+Kambas(17%) in Nairobi. And trust me even lower class Luos and Luhyas will vote Sonko. Sonko & Sakaja are new breed of leaders who don't know Tribe. These are born town kids whose mother tongue is sheng.
Note: During 2013 - Sonko won more votes than anybody in Nairobi; Kidero, Raila and Uhuru. That means he was able to attract both Jubilee and CORD votes.
Kidero should relocate to Asumbi and try Homebay county before it's too late . We advised PK to try Muranga but he couldn't listen. See how badly he has been beaten despite coming from large tribe by far in Nairobi.
In the primary one is supposed to win for who the are, however, in the general elections Party affiliation is going to play a bigger role. These will definitely be very interesting elections. The electorate is very charged. Kidero can only win against Sonko if he ties his re-election bid tightly to NASA.