Why Ruto’s Political Ark May Sink Post-2017

[Omollo]

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Last week this lady wrote something about NASA that caused me stomach upsets. I was travelling so she dodged heavy weapons' return fire. However this week, she confirms that she is a Jubilee Loose Canon and goes for Ruto. 

I think she makes some pretty good arguments. She must be a Nipatean. Most of these views have been freely expressed and exchanged here.

I happen to know that Kenyan "scholars" attach a huge premium to being published in those local rags. Instead of working hard to be published in a refereed journal and be weighed on a standard scale by your peers, one seeks to write to the average reader who is basically ignorant at best and indoctrinated at worst.

I have nothing against sharing good ideas with the sons and daughters of the proletariat.

[Nefertiti]

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

They will begin work on the hustler as soon as 2017 returns are in.  The man has too much baggage.  A lot of leverage GoK can use against his track record(corruption, corruption, corruption, court cases, ...) - which they will "suddenly" remember.  At the end of the day, he will be forced to eat his lumps and enjoy his ill gotten returns in peace.

[Empedocles]

Only Ruto and his fanatical supporters honestly believe he has a chance of becoming PORK in 2022. The looting spree currently being undertaken by Ruto is primarily driven by the hope that if he has enough leverage, he can buy the presidency, showing blissful ignorance of Kenyan reality of "tribe above anything else". He's sadly deluded.

Ruto has been a marked man since 9th April, 2013.

[RV Pundit]

Here we go again. Ruto has proven himself severally and that has not dampen the doubting Thomas. He scored 30% pushing mainly alone in 2010 constitution. His party URP won 78 members of parliament, more than 10 governors and 10 senators. Outside GEMA & Gusii..Uhuru basically owes his support to Ruto. That is core that will move with Ruto...Jubilee is what will help Ruto couple with GEMA& Gusii.

Ruto has strong united base in RV (Kamatusa) - second biggest alliance after GEMA - is pretty sell-able in many part of Kenya esp pastoralist north and coast (without Uhuru). Alone Ruto can easily score 30%.

He just need 20% to become PORK. That obviously will come from GEMA/UHuru ( I don't see any reason why it won't) and if it doesn't - 20% isn't pretty hard to get if you're talented politician like Ruto- there are few big tribes one can throw Deputy PORK and they would be game on.

Here is the "finished" Ruto with his "fanatical" supporters in Bomet.

[Omollo]

Pundit

Learn from the mistakes Kichwa Mbaya made while you and I were quick to realize that we had been shagged badly.

Your analysis suffers from spacio-temporal shortcomings. You are presenting the situation as it appears now. On the other hand others are looking in the future and presenting the possible scenarios. They base their conclusions on GEMA's past behavior - which remains constant and unchanged.

You present a completely different picture even as you claim to use the present to guide your conclusions.

In the past you insisted that Ruto will use the Moi Approach. You pushed this line until it was pointed out to you that Moi would never have made it without 1. Draconian political system backed by a secret police 2. A One-Party Dictatorship which locked out any opponents and confined them on the sidelines to be mere spectators. I have ordered my reasons in terms of importance. We have number 1 in Ethiopia without number 2 and we have seen a Moi-like succession over there. Do you believe that Ruto can intimidate opponents not to stand for election?

There is another idiosyncrasy worth noting: Moi inherited office from a dead president. Unless Uhuru plans to die in office or hand over power a year to election, I really see no comparison here.

But in fairness you abandoned that line and now tie us in percentages.

So lets assume ALL Kalenjins vote for Ruto. They encompass 13% leaving 87% against him. Or to use your numbers he would fall short of the mandatory 50% by 38%. The assumption remains that Kalenjin voters will constitute 13%.

Here we go again. Ruto has proven himself severally and that has not dampen the doubting Thomas. He scored 30% pushing mainly alone in 2010 constitution. His party URP won 78 members of parliament, more than 10 governors and 10 senators. Outside GEMA & Gusii..Uhuru basically owes his support to Ruto. That is core that will move with Ruto...Jubilee is what will help Ruto couple with GEMA& Gusii.

Ruto has strong united base in RV (Kamatusa) - second biggest alliance after GEMA - is pretty sell-able in many part of Kenya esp pastoralist north and coast (without Uhuru). Alone Ruto can easily score 30%.

He just need 20% to become PORK. That obviously will come from GEMA/UHuru ( I don't see any reason why it won't) and if it doesn't - 20% isn't pretty hard to get if you're talented politician like Ruto- there are few big tribes one can throw Deputy PORK and they would be game on.

Here is the "finished" Ruto with his "fanatical" supporters in Bomet.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto long went beyond Kalenjin. Those are stubborn facts. Kalenjin cannot produce 75MPs or 12 governors. Note Uhuru got just 10 more than Ruto. Note Raila got just 20 more MPS than Ruto. In percentage %..Raila came top with 27%..Uhuru 25% and Ruto 21%.. And both Uhuru & Raila were running for PORK so they had huge advantage. And so if Ruto who was facing ICC & was mere MP could get 21% Mps/MCAs/Senators...just imagine what you're about to witness in 2017 AUGUST!!!!!!!!

Ruto game plan has not changed. It basically to hang into  KANU support base post -multiparty. After NDP & ODM trojan horse of the 2000s - most of that support - became what we know as ODM (ignore the loud LUO core). Ruto has basically since 2008 been courting this same block..that gave Moi 35 & 42% in election that were generally acknowledge as representing the will of the people..and that support base was  Rift Valley (save for Bukusu & Kikuyus) - Ruto is excellent in that front. The other front is NEP & Upper eastern (Somali - where Duale is doing a great job). Unlike Uhuru - I think Ruto will get votes in Coast (although Joho drug business is making it harder). He'll struggle in Gusii, Ukambani and Western . Give and take Ruto can easily win 30% of the vote in 2012 running as incumbent  DPORK. With support of Uhuru..he'll blow the ball beyond the park. If GEMA decide to become suicidal and refuses to play the ball. Then Ruto will just need 10% kind of candidate ( Kalonzo) as running mate - and he'll go t0 40s - Not enough to go for 50% plus outright win...but enough for second bite...where he'll make a deal with another 10%cer and it's game over.

So with or without GEMA...Ruto has this thing in the bag.

Pundit

Learn from the mistakes Kichwa Mbaya made while you and I were quick to realize that we had been shagged badly.

Your analysis suffers from spacio-temporal shortcomings. You are presenting the situation as it appears now. On the other hand others are looking in the future and presenting the possible scenarios. They base their conclusions on GEMA's past behavior - which remains constant and unchanged.

You present a completely different picture even as you claim to use the present to guide your conclusions.

In the past you insisted that Ruto will use the Moi Approach. You pushed this line until it was pointed out to you that Moi would never have made it without 1. Draconian political system backed by a secret police 2. A One-Party Dictatorship which locked out any opponents and confined them on the sidelines to be mere spectators. I have ordered my reasons in terms of importance. We have number 1 in Ethiopia without number 2 and we have seen a Moi-like succession over there. Do you believe that Ruto can intimidate opponents not to stand for election?

There is another idiosyncrasy worth noting: Moi inherited office from a dead president. Unless Uhuru plans to die in office or hand over power a year to election, I really see no comparison here.

But in fairness you abandoned that line and now tie us in percentages.

So lets assume ALL Kalenjins vote for Ruto. They encompass 13% leaving 87% against him. Or to use your numbers he would fall short of the mandatory 50% by 38%. The assumption remains that Kalenjin voters will constitute 13%.

[Omollo]

The picture isn't that clear as you present it. Jubilee managed to prevent fratricidal wars in 2013 unlike CORD. They benefitted from that. For example in Kisii, Kwale and most of Nairobi. CORD parties fought against each other divided the vote and allowed Jubilee parties (URP and TNA) to jump through. That means the number of MPs is no useful guide in this case. No more than ODM can count the four MPs in Nakuru and Meru combined as an indicator of support in 2013.

Ruto may pursue the Moi constituency if he drops the GEMA baggage. But then without ODM or any of the CORD Parties he sinks like a rock from space.

And so if Ruto who was facing ICC & was mere MP could get 21% Mps/MCAs/Senators...just imagine what you're about to witness in 2017 AUGUST!!!!!!!!The ICC mobilized the Kalenjin. You cannot underestimate the power of playing victim. The message was that ALL Kalenjins were on trial and that Raila was persecuting them. It was a LIE but it was as effective as Hitler telling the Germans that the whole world was against them before leading millions of them in to the slaughter fields.

I greatly doubt that there is another issue that will galvanize Kalenjins in to supporting Ruto as well as the ICC did. So I would curb my exuberance if I were you. But then again August is almost here. However you will still celebrate 50 or even 40 URP seats.

Raila came top with 27%..Uhuru 25% and Ruto 21%.. These percentages are meaningless. There were loose alliances which saw fratricidal wars (see my explanation above).

Ruto is excellent in that front.There is a tendency for Jubilee and its supporters to mistake their wishes for reality. When they decide that they must have the Kisii vote they immediately decide that Kisii is "battleground". It is the same as a Democrat finding that he needs the Texas vote then going ahead to declare a Republican damu state "battleground". Now I know Ruto wants and needs the Luhya vote and has been spending lots of money there. Until I see Lusaka, Eugene and Washiali deliver, I want to conclude that those are his wishes that are not backed by any real support on the ground.

I think Ruto will get votes in Coast (although Joho drug business is making it harder). He'll struggle in Gusii, Ukambani and Western .Because ODM bungled the nominations and allowed one or two MPs to win for URP? Or is there some real support for him? The reason Uhuru can't get votes at the coast are the same ones those contaminated by their closeness to Uhuru will not. Take it to the bank. Perhaps if you named the specific places in Gusii, Ukambani and Western I can help you out by explaining the dynamics. In short I see no place in Western where Uhuru / Ruto can get votes. If you are talking about 2022 I can tell you if he gets GEMA support he won't need to beg twice to get Luhya votes.

So with or without GEMA...Ruto has this thing in the bag : He can count on my vote if he gets GEMA support.

Ruto long went beyond Kalenjin. Those are stubborn facts. Kalenjin cannot produce 75MPs or 12 governors. Note Uhuru got just 10 more than Ruto. Note Raila got just 20 more MPS than Ruto. In percentage %..Raila came top with 27%..Uhuru 25% and Ruto 21%.. And both Uhuru & Raila were running for PORK so they had huge advantage. And so if Ruto who was facing ICC & was mere MP could get 21% Mps/MCAs/Senators...just imagine what you're about to witness in 2017 AUGUST!!!!!!!!

Ruto game plan has not changed. It basically to hang into  KANU support base post -multiparty. After NDP & ODM trojan horse of the 2000s - most of that support - became what we know as ODM (ignore the loud LUO core). Ruto has basically since 2008 been courting this same block..that gave Moi 35 & 42% in election that were generally acknowledge as representing the will of the people..and that support base was  Rift Valley (save for Bukusu & Kikuyus) - Ruto is excellent in that front. The other front is NEP & Upper eastern (Somali - where Duale is doing a great job). Unlike Uhuru - I think Ruto will get votes in Coast (although Joho drug business is making it harder). He'll struggle in Gusii, Ukambani and Western . Give and take Ruto can easily win 30% of the vote in 2012 running as incumbent  DPORK. With support of Uhuru..he'll blow the ball beyond the park. If GEMA decide to become suicidal and refuses to play the ball. Then Ruto will just need 10% kind of candidate ( Kalonzo) as running mate - and he'll go t0 40s - Not enough to go for 50% plus outright win...but enough for second bite...where he'll make a deal with another 10%cer and it's game over.

So with or without GEMA...Ruto has this thing in the bag.

[Nefertiti]

RUTO had 15% support in the PORK opinion polls... before he joined Uhuru. He will get GEMA support alright, he just has to contend with co-presidency as is the case now. Direct support via Kanu 2.0 is a poor sleight of hand. He should avoid Raila's post-07 mistake of relegating RV for Western.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto lost some mps to KANU & Independent candidates - and beneficiary for ODM mess was smaller parties. Overally Ruto while not running for PORK manage to achieve impressive results -12 governors under URP - 75 mps- and has pretty much work his arse off the last few years - and you can expect him to reap big in few years - when Uhuru will hand over the party leadership to him.

The picture isn't that clear as you present it. Jubilee managed to prevent fratricidal wars in 2013 unlike CORD. They benefitted from that. For example in Kisii, Kwale and most of Nairobi. CORD parties fought against each other divided the vote and allowed Jubilee parties (URP and TNA) to jump through. That means the number of MPs is no useful guide in this case. No more than ODM can count the four MPs in Nakuru and Meru combined as an indicator of support in 2013.

Ruto may pursue the Moi constituency if he drops the GEMA baggage. But then without ODM or any of the CORD Parties he sinks like a rock from space.

And so if Ruto who was facing ICC & was mere MP could get 21% Mps/MCAs/Senators...just imagine what you're about to witness in 2017 AUGUST!!!!!!!!The ICC mobilized the Kalenjin. You cannot underestimate the power of playing victim. The message was that ALL Kalenjins were on trial and that Raila was persecuting them. It was a LIE but it was as effective as Hitler telling the Germans that the whole world was against them before leading millions of them in to the slaughter fields.

I greatly doubt that there is another issue that will galvanize Kalenjins in to supporting Ruto as well as the ICC did. So I would curb my exuberance if I were you. But then again August is almost here. However you will still celebrate 50 or even 40 URP seats.

Raila came top with 27%..Uhuru 25% and Ruto 21%.. These percentages are meaningless. There were loose alliances which saw fratricidal wars (see my explanation above).

Ruto is excellent in that front.There is a tendency for Jubilee and its supporters to mistake their wishes for reality. When they decide that they must have the Kisii vote they immediately decide that Kisii is "battleground". It is the same as a Democrat finding that he needs the Texas vote then going ahead to declare a Republican damu state "battleground". Now I know Ruto wants and needs the Luhya vote and has been spending lots of money there. Until I see Lusaka, Eugene and Washiali deliver, I want to conclude that those are his wishes that are not backed by any real support on the ground.

I think Ruto will get votes in Coast (although Joho drug business is making it harder). He'll struggle in Gusii, Ukambani and Western .Because ODM bungled the nominations and allowed one or two MPs to win for URP? Or is there some real support for him? The reason Uhuru can't get votes at the coast are the same ones those contaminated by their closeness to Uhuru will not. Take it to the bank. Perhaps if you named the specific places in Gusii, Ukambani and Western I can help you out by explaining the dynamics. In short I see no place in Western where Uhuru / Ruto can get votes. If you are talking about 2022 I can tell you if he gets GEMA support he won't need to beg twice to get Luhya votes.

So with or without GEMA...Ruto has this thing in the bag : He can count on my vote if he gets GEMA support.

Ruto long went beyond Kalenjin. Those are stubborn facts. Kalenjin cannot produce 75MPs or 12 governors. Note Uhuru got just 10 more than Ruto. Note Raila got just 20 more MPS than Ruto. In percentage %..Raila came top with 27%..Uhuru 25% and Ruto 21%.. And both Uhuru & Raila were running for PORK so they had huge advantage. And so if Ruto who was facing ICC & was mere MP could get 21% Mps/MCAs/Senators...just imagine what you're about to witness in 2017 AUGUST!!!!!!!!

Ruto game plan has not changed. It basically to hang into  KANU support base post -multiparty. After NDP & ODM trojan horse of the 2000s - most of that support - became what we know as ODM (ignore the loud LUO core). Ruto has basically since 2008 been courting this same block..that gave Moi 35 & 42% in election that were generally acknowledge as representing the will of the people..and that support base was  Rift Valley (save for Bukusu & Kikuyus) - Ruto is excellent in that front. The other front is NEP & Upper eastern (Somali - where Duale is doing a great job). Unlike Uhuru - I think Ruto will get votes in Coast (although Joho drug business is making it harder). He'll struggle in Gusii, Ukambani and Western . Give and take Ruto can easily win 30% of the vote in 2012 running as incumbent  DPORK. With support of Uhuru..he'll blow the ball beyond the park. If GEMA decide to become suicidal and refuses to play the ball. Then Ruto will just need 10% kind of candidate ( Kalonzo) as running mate - and he'll go t0 40s - Not enough to go for 50% plus outright win...but enough for second bite...where he'll make a deal with another 10%cer and it's game over.

So with or without GEMA...Ruto has this thing in the bag.

[RV Pundit]

with 50% - nobody is winning it outright without a coalition. Ruto should aim for direct support of 30% via KANU 2.0 and then make a 50-50 deal with GEMA to bring in 20%. I believe 30% is easily attainable - Kalenjin alone 15% - MATUSA -5% - and then if he courts Somalis & related that another 2-3%- then he can win some in COAST,Gusii,Kuria,Western & Ukambani -and this where he'll have to throw lots of billions to buy politician who are influential in their little home turfs.

RUTO had 15% support in the PORK opinion polls... before he joined Uhuru. He will get GEMA support alright, he just has to contend with co-presidency as is the case now. Direct support via Kanu 2.0 is a poor sleight of hand. He should avoid Raila's post-07 mistake of relegating RV for Western.

[Omollo]

The thinking in GEMA is that they do not need any other tribe to win the presidency. So if Ruto takes 20% of GEMA what happens to the remaining  80%? Suppose they find someone else to cheat...

with 50% - nobody is winning it outright without a coalition. Ruto should aim for direct support of 30% via KANU 2.0 and then make a 50-50 deal with GEMA to bring in 20%. I believe 30% is easily attainable - Kalenjin alone 15% - MATUSA -5% - and then if he courts Somalis & related that another 2-3%- then he can win some in COAST,Gusii,Kuria,Western & Ukambani -and this where he'll have to throw lots of billions to buy politician who are influential in their little home turfs.

RUTO had 15% support in the PORK opinion polls... before he joined Uhuru. He will get GEMA support alright, he just has to contend with co-presidency as is the case now. Direct support via Kanu 2.0 is a poor sleight of hand. He should avoid Raila's post-07 mistake of relegating RV for Western.

[RV Pundit]

I meant 20% of the total vote. Your guys are afraid of GEMA. I can tell you they are not that many. They are 20% of the total population. KAMATUSA are also nearly 20% - all Ruto need is to cobble together alliances that historically align - kamatusa+pastoralist+coast - and he is home & dry. Without Ruto backing Uhuru..there was no gema candidate who'd have won in 2013 or who would win now. Obviously Ruto did this for strategic reason. Right now GEMA doesn't have candidate or even potential candidate who can win national support...PK & Martha are hopeless..so Ruto biggest competitor remain Raila. Raila has what Ruto needs...for him to make a coalition with any one or two of the big tribes. That is why Ruto is working hard to win defection from ODM --and try to build a network there - we shall find out how this goes after August. If his men like Mungaro or Muravya or Lusaka or many others - come back - Ruto would have won against Raila in the last battle.

The thinking in GEMA is that they do not need any other tribe to win the presidency. So if Ruto takes 20% of GEMA what happens to the remaining  80%? Suppose they find someone else to cheat...

[Omollo]

You are almost hitting the point: It has never been about votes. It has always been about who controls the counting of votes. Does Ruto think he can control that? I knew it was over for CORD when Uhuru through Iringo and Hassan seized the Counting. The current war is about the control of the Counting. We do not fear GEMA. We are angry at their total control of the counting of votes.

Right now GEMA doesn't have candidate or even potential candidate who can win national support: Any people used to having demagogues decide for them how to vote always consider the absence of one a substantive vacancy to be filled. Like any job, you recruit and set to work. It won't take long to get a replacement for Uhuru. Now we have Governors, Senators etc the chances of getting a replacement are quite high.

That is why Ruto is working hard to win defection from ODM All those who could defect from ODM have done so. They are in Wiper, ANC and Jubilee. All the rest to be frank with you cannot stand GEMA. Like I told you and pass this to Ruto, the day he cuts links with GEMA and identifies with the aspirations of the coalition that kept Moi in power, Post Raila ODM will either fold or make an alliance with him. Not before.

I am not one to mince words or resort to niceties. The behavior of GEMA over the last 15 years has brought the worst in many Kenyans. Those who were alive during Jomo Kenyatta's rule tell us of how he used to address the whole country in Gikuyu complete with matusi. His favorite tusi was kuma za mamazenu/ zao. I am getting a number of old videos (had to be converted to modern files) with some of those vile videos. I will post some after the elections.

I meant 20% of the total vote. Your guys are afraid of GEMA. I can tell you they are not that many. They are 20% of the total population. KAMATUSA are also nearly 20% - all Ruto need is to cobble together alliances that historically align - kamatusa+pastoralist+coast - and he is home & dry. Without Ruto backing Uhuru..there was no gema candidate who'd have won in 2013 or who would win now. Obviously Ruto did this for strategic reason. Right now GEMA doesn't have candidate or even potential candidate who can win national support...PK & Martha are hopeless..so Ruto biggest competitor remain Raila. Raila has what Ruto needs...for him to make a coalition with any one or two of the big tribes. That is why Ruto is working hard to win defection from ODM --and try to build a network there - we shall find out how this goes after August. If his men like Mungaro or Muravya or Lusaka or many others - come back - Ruto would have won against Raila in the last battle.

The thinking in GEMA is that they do not need any other tribe to win the presidency. So if Ruto takes 20% of GEMA what happens to the remaining  80%? Suppose they find someone else to cheat...

[Omollo]

BTW Isaac is unfazed: