NASA Flag-Bearer Scenarios

[Omollo]

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There are interesting scenarios being bandied around.

One thing I find interesting is the interest showed by Jubilee on the question of NASA Flag-Bearer. They say we have to choose Raila as if they think we shall instinctively act against that.

[Omollo]

[Pajero]

Kalonzo is on his way out,he will run on wiper and form a post election pact with Uhuru.He will then deputize PK 2022.

[Nefertiti]

The Prime Minister post does not exist so scrap that. Raila should just play kingmaker for a Kalonzo-Mudavadi ticket. That has potential to rock Jubilee's chances and cement history for Agwambo.

[Pajero]

Raila is already a king,how does he become a king maker????

[Omollo]

My problem with the Kalonzo - Mudavadi ticket is that I do not entirely trust the two KANU apparatchiks to deliver on the changes that are needed.

Raila in a way is a guarantor to some of us who are not so keen on having Uhuruism without Uhuru. We have seen how Moism Without Moi grew and prospered under Kibaki. It does not take much for a man to cheat millions and become a puppet of all those he promised to kick ass.

Kibaki rode on an anti-KANU wave only to run the most KANU government that Kenya had ever seen! He would rise rigging to a crescendo never heard of before. Not even The Fathers of Rigging Elections - Jomo Kenyatta & Tom Mboya - could match that!

Kalonzo betrayed his comrades in 2007. Mudavadi did it in 2002. Mudavadi would later help Uhuru win in 2013. Even after he pretended that he had been called Shetani, he followed Peter Kenneth in conceding defeat before there was any binding result. This was a move to pressurize Raila to do the same and allow Uhuru be president. I think if someone shows he is unreliable three times, it is enough to conclude that he is indeed not reliable.

Kalonzo's may have been an opportunistic mistake. He has since stayed on the straight line. There were times when he could have been tempted to betray The Opposition. He did not. He soldiered through the teargas and demos on the streets along with Raila, Orengo, Joho, etc. We have heard of offers made to him "to dump Njaruo". He has not. I therefore awarded him 50%.

The same goes for Wetangula. He was the face of Thieving Kibaki in 2007. He stole an ODM seat in Sirisia. But he has since been steadfast. I can't see him change while close to Bonny Khalwale. Unfortunately Bonny is not likely to beat Oparanya and this could cause him to lash out.

The Prime Minister post does not exist so scrap that. Raila should just play kingmaker for a Kalonzo-Mudavadi ticket. That has potential to rock Jubilee's chances and cement history for Agwambo.

[Omollo]

Raila is already a king,how does he become a king maker????

Because of his personal following, he is can bring with him millions of votes for the person he anoints. The problem is that the said person should have enough to add on.

Mudavadi and Wetangula are non starters in that case because Raila commands the votes in his backyard. If he unleashed the wife he would in fact command 100% of the vote in Western. He has not done that yet.

Kalonzo would bring an enhanced 2m plus votes. But there is the danger of losing Coast where only Raila can deliver. Its a long story but it goes back to IPK - Jaramogi alliance.

However you look at it, the best option is to keep Raila - Kalonzo. At worst: Kalonzo-Raila.

[Pajero]

Omollo

With the current political dynamics,Kalonzo has options unlike 2013.Taking you down memory lane,in 2007 Kalonzo betrayed the ODM spirit,ran for presidency and formed an alliance with Kibaki to secure the vps seat.Come 2013,having been boxed out of the famous G7,he had no option but to support Raila,not because he loved it but because that was the only available option.2017 will be no different,this time round,the Kalonzo that people know will be at it again,he only difference this time is that he will not become VP,but will be in govt.It about history repeating itself.

[Omollo]

On both of the occasions you describe there were clear dynamics characterized by events that showed he might alter his choices. I see none this time.

The thing is if he does that he would be damaged. Charity Ngilu did it and see where that got her.

Omollo

With the current political dynamics,Kalonzo has options unlike 2013.Taking you down memory lane,in 2007 Kalonzo betrayed the ODM spirit,ran for presidency and formed an alliance with Kibaki to secure the vps seat.Come 2013,having been boxed out of the famous G7,he had no option but to support Raila,not because he loved it but because that was the only available option.2017 will be no different,this time round,the Kalonzo that people know will be at it again,he only difference this time is that he will not become VP,but will be in govt.It about history repeating itself.

[RV Pundit]

Kalonzo would be stupid to settle for nothing less than NASA flag bearer. Raila signed an MOU with him. People talking about betrayal - and here is Raila betraying Kalonzo & Kambas - just like he betrayed Ruto and Kalenjin. Before that Raila had betrayed Wamalwa and Luhyas.NASA or CORD or name any coalition with Luos- is about Luo and nothing more. Raila only toshad Kibaki in 2002 coz Moi played him 10-nil and he was out of aces.

For Kalonzo and Mudavadi - not to realize that any deal with Raila - means Raila has to win and stay for 10 yrs or more - is beyond me. Ruto was smart enough to realize that and made a deal with a gentleman like Uhuru - and has now enjoy 5 yrs of near co-presidency.

Best deal Kalonzo can make - is to join Jubilee and fight it out with Ruto in 2022. Going alone is also a good strategy. He has more chance against Ruto - going for GEMA vote - than trying to win over Raila and Luos - who have 60yrs ambition to lead that is yet to materialize.

[Omollo]

There is the possibility of Raila running for one term.

Whichever way, I can't see Kalonzo in Jubilee playing second fiddle to Ruto. Incidentally how many more votes can Ruto bring to Jubilee than Kalonzo?

 

Kalonzo would be stupid to settle for nothing less than NASA flag bearer. Raila signed an MOU with him. People talking about betrayal - and here is Raila betraying Kalonzo & Kambas - just like he betrayed Ruto and Kalenjin. Before that Raila had betrayed Wamalwa and Luhyas.NASA or CORD or name any coalition with Luos- is about Luo and nothing more. Raila only toshad Kibaki in 2002 coz Moi played him 10-nil and he was out of aces.

For Kalonzo and Mudavadi - not to realize that any deal with Raila - means Raila has to win and stay for 10 yrs or more - is beyond me. Ruto was smart enough to realize that and made a deal with a gentleman like Uhuru - and has now enjoy 5 yrs of near co-presidency.

Best deal Kalonzo can make - is to join Jubilee and fight it out with Ruto in 2022. Going alone is also a good strategy. He has more chance against Ruto - going for GEMA vote - than trying to win over Raila and Luos - who have 60yrs ambition to lead that is yet to materialize.

[RV Pundit]

Raila signed MOU with Kalonzo that I have heard say win or lose; he was going for one term; He need to honour that and give Kalonzo a shot. Otherwise he is wasting time. I mean if someone didn't learn from Bukusu debacles of FORD-Kenya in 90s - I don't know what someone else will learn.

Ruto packs more punch than Kalonzo. Ruto's URP brought in 78 Mps against Uhuru's TNA 85 and Raila's 96. Kalonzo got about 25mps. There is no comparison. Ruto constituency goes beyond Kalenjin - he is popular in kamatusa+ north kenya+ coast. Kalonzo has failed to excite anyone outside Ukambani. And that is why he'll be made mince meat in fight with Ruto in Jubilee.

Where Kalonzo has a chance..is GEMA vote! Gema would have an option - if there was going to be nasty fallout with Ruto. I don't see such fallout happening - with Kalenjin holding hostage 1m plus Kikuyus in rift valley as ransom.

There is the possibility of Raila running for one term.

Whichever way, I can't see Kalonzo in Jubilee playing second fiddle to Ruto. Incidentally how many more votes can Ruto bring to Jubilee than Kalonzo?

[Pajero]

Ruto & Kalonzo are more less playing in the same league.They will just be swapping positions either behind Raila or a Gema candidate.

[Omollo]

The MoU is the latest Jubilee propaganda to get rid of a winning team.

Tell me Pundit: If Raila is such a convenient candidate that Uhuru would beat more easily than others, why all this energy to make sure he doesn't run? I have to wonder.

I am talking about votes that Kalonzo can contribute incase Uhuru decides to go with him rather than Ruto. Yes Ruto brought in seats. That time is now over. He has lost Bomet are the environs. He is compromised in Baringo and untrusted in Pokot. You can't assume that he would get the same votes for Uhuru post ICC. That said ethnic appointments have taken their toll.

Raila signed MOU with Kalonzo that I have heard say win or lose; he was going for one term; He need to honour that and give Kalonzo a shot. Otherwise he is wasting time. I mean if someone didn't learn from Bukusu debacles of FORD-Kenya in 90s - I don't know what someone else will learn.

Ruto packs more punch than Kalonzo. Ruto's URP brought in 78 Mps against Uhuru's TNA 85 and Raila's 96. Kalonzo got about 25mps. There is no comparison. Ruto constituency goes beyond Kalenjin - he is popular in kamatusa+ north kenya+ coast. Kalonzo has failed to excite anyone outside Ukambani. And that is why he'll be made mince meat in fight with Ruto in Jubilee.

Where Kalonzo has a chance..is GEMA vote! Gema would have an option - in addition to Ruto - come 2022.

There is the possibility of Raila running for one term.

Whichever way, I can't see Kalonzo in Jubilee playing second fiddle to Ruto. Incidentally how many more votes can Ruto bring to Jubilee than Kalonzo?

[RV Pundit]

Ypu're mistaken. Ruto is playing on another league. Kalonzo and Mudavadi are on the same league. Ruto is a co-president.

Ruto & Kalonzo are more less playing in the same league.They will just be swapping positions either behind Raila or a Gema candidate.

[Omollo]

Ruto & Kalonzo are more less playing in the same league.They will just be swapping positions either behind Raila or a Gema candidate.

Ruto is done as soon as polls close in August.

[Omollo]

I know Pajero will ask. I am curious to know what league that is?

You're mistaken. Ruto is playing on another league. Kalonzo and Mudavadi are on the same league. Ruto is a co-president.

Ruto & Kalonzo are more less playing in the same league.They will just be swapping positions either behind Raila or a Gema candidate.

[RV Pundit]

The MOU is out there. Orengo says it was not deposited with political parties and is null and void. But we know Raila made that commitment -

I am just talking about what is good for Kalonzo - I am being fair to me -

As for Uhuru swapping Ruto -   Kalonzo tried that in 2013 and he was told no way. I don't like him at all. In fact he will complicate maths for my man Ruto if he grows a brain cell or two like he is attempting - I'd prefer he was dumb and dense to sit this out - and again in 2022 when Ruto will face Raila.

Otherwise I think you understimate Ruto (as always) - nobody has put in the hardwork and the money for last 5yrs - it harvest time for Ruto - just wait for August - Ruto doesn't sleep, he doesn't spare money, energy or time to go for what he wants - PORK. He has laid the ground work - Bomet,Pokot & Baringo will be swept by Jubilee - maybe 1 or 2 will win here or there - but generally Ruto men will carry the day not only in RV but across the country.

You don't just go to bed, spend zero shilling and build zero network like Kalonzo - and then come - demand PORK but that is Raila's problem. If he was smart - he'd have done a deal with Ruto and he would be finishing his 10yrs like Uhuru is doing Combine Raila +Ruto would have been enough counter-force against GEMA Machinery - but he chose maDVD and even after Ruto finished off maDVD by playing him like doll in 2013 & refusing to appoint him to JUBILEE- he has brought him back from the dead

Uhuru biggest strength is not being afraid of strong men. Raila biggest weakness is being so insecure he sorrounds himself with lazy bones like Kalonzo or MaDVD who now just want to be made PORK by ODM machinery.

The MoU is the latest Jubilee propaganda to get rid of a winning team.

Tell me Pundit: If Raila is such a convenient candidate that Uhuru would beat more easily than others, why all this energy to make sure he doesn't run? I have to wonder.

I am talking about votes that Kalonzo can contribute incase Uhuru decides to go with him rather than Ruto. Yes Ruto brought in seats. That time is now over. He has lost Bomet are the environs. He is compromised in Baringo and untrusted in Pokot. You can't assume that he would get the same votes for Uhuru post ICC. That said ethnic appointments have taken their toll.

[Omollo]

/Pandit/

Let me start with some admissions: The bottom line is that if anybody other than Raila is flagbearer NASA is sunk. The best deal would be to look outside these four and select two persons that would shock the living daylights out of Jubilee.

That is not likely to happen.

Pundit, we know Ruto's game plan. Unfortunately for him GEMA also knows. Let me confess that from time to time they do dump info about Ruto right in to the laps of NASA (earlier CORD). I have seen it once or twice.  I used to think it is a joke until I cross checked some it. I did give you a hint one day about a meeting taking place. I hope you took it seriously and checked.

The bottomline is that GEMA wants a formula where they get RV votes and then exorcise both Raila and Ruto. The solution to The Dual Ruto Odinga Problem (DROP)  - they call it. It is known that only Uhuru's wife thinks Scientific exorcism can work on Raila. The others believe Raila will lose and go home a broken man. The feel there is no need to hit him on the head as he has no credible male heirs and thus will vanish along with the entire Odinga problem. That we know.

For Ruto it is Pure Scientific Exorcism following Wamalwa Kijana style. No middle line. The information we have is that the job is complete or is at 70% done.

I want to discount this talk as bad rumors. However when you are told that "we cut off the money for this week" and you confirm that Ruto is stuck, what can you say? Doubt it?

When Isaac is financed (with money obtained from a senile Moi) how do you explain that?

Ruto is playing in league bro. Ruto is struggling to survive. Like a woman who is loudly bragging about her husband but cannot explain the crashing sounds from her house every evening of the bruises on her face every morning, Ruto is keeping up appearances.

[RV Pundit]

I see we are back to wichcraft, romours and grapevine.That didn't take long.

/Pandit/

Let me start with some admissions: The bottom line is that if anybody other than Raila is flagbearer NASA is sunk. The best deal would be to look outside these four and select two persons that would shock the living daylights out of Jubilee.

That is not likely to happen.

Pundit, we know Ruto's game plan. Unfortunately for him GEMA also knows. Let me confess that from time to time they do dump info about Ruto right in to the laps of NASA (earlier CORD). I have seen it once or twice.  I used to think it is a joke until I cross checked some it. I did give you a hint one day about a meeting taking place. I hope you took it seriously and checked.

The bottomline is that GEMA wants a formula where they get RV votes and then exorcise both Raila and Ruto. The solution to The Dual Ruto Odinga Problem (DROP)  - they call it. It is known that only Uhuru's wife thinks Scientific exorcism can work on Raila. The others believe Raila will lose and go home a broken man. The feel there is no need to hit him on the head as he has no credible male heirs and thus will vanish along with the entire Odinga problem. That we know.

For Ruto it is Pure Scientific Exorcism following Wamalwa Kijana style. No middle line. The information we have is that the job is complete or is at 70% done.

I want to discount this talk as bad rumors. However when you are told that "we cut off the money for this week" and you confirm that Ruto is stuck, what can you say? Doubt it?

When Isaac is financed (with money obtained from a senile Moi) how do you explain that?

Ruto is playing in league bro. Ruto is struggling to survive. Like a woman who is loudly bragging about her husband but cannot explain the crashing sounds from her house every evening of the bruises on her face every morning, Ruto is keeping up appearances.