Biased Polls in Kenya

[Omollo]

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I wonder why is not commissioning its own polls. The pollsters don't have to be the usual two lying companies. They can get a reputable company outside Kenya to conduct a neutral poll free of partisan politics.

So Ambitho polls about the most popular party. Of course Jubilee wins. Is it a party? No officials and no structure.

She then compares it to ODM, Wiper, Ford Kenya. It is all technically correct. Except she knows its a lie.

Jubilee should have been compared to NASA. If she opted to parties then TNA, URP etc would join ODM and FORD K

https://citizentv.co.ke/news/raila-odinga-most-preferred-nasa-presidential-candidate-pollster-160323/

[yulemsee]

Don't worry, Ombitho is on your side, she will build Babu's nos. steadly untill a week to elections and babu will be at 60%

[Omollo]

You may have forgotten that I am not GEMA. I do not want people on "my side". Opinion polls are not supposed to be on any one's side. I am decrying the lack of neutrality and professionalism.

Feel free to wallow in the Tom Wolfe Deceptions that Uhuru is winning with 70%. We are winding down your cheating machine steadily piece by one GEMA piece. By the time the elections are here it will be a fair ground on which the real winner will be known. If not there will be no Kenya for you and your tribe to tyrannize over us.

Don't worry, Ombitho is on your side, she will build Babu's nos. steadly untill a week to elections and babu will be at 60%

[Omollo]

[gout]

There is yet to be found a way for researchers to mitigate on the human need to be perceived 'positively' in public thus the prevalence of bias. Hell, humans are biased on any given thing!! 

[Omollo]

Let me put it simply: What Kalonzo is asking is pure witchcraft. Nothing can come out of such huge samples he is advocating for. It simply means he is ignorant of how to conduct scientific polls.

Yet he is right in questioning the polls that are offered by Ambitho and Wolfe. There is deliberate bias. In other words it is not because they are stupid that they bring to us garbage. On the contrary a lot of effort goes towards producing the result most pleasant to those who pay for it.

The sampling errors (if the pollsters ever think they are errors) are deliberate. No same person can pick NASA "strongholds" and feign ignorance of what the majority will think of Uhuru. Neither can one expect any surprises from Siaya residents about Raila.

The way forward is to identify battle ground counties as well as strongholds and then concentrate on these when projecting results. That however brings us back to the original sin: They will cook the results from the beginning.
There is yet to be found a way for researchers to mitigate on the human need to be perceived 'positively' in public thus the prevalence of bias. Hell, humans are biased on any given thing!! 
I am not sure we are talking about the same bias.

And by the way Garlic: stop telling lies about me at choo.com The evidence you need is here. check the threads. You can't tell lies and claim you are such a genius analytical mind. You can show your integrity and eternal fidelity to the truth by keeping to verifiable facts.

I can use another handle to access choo.com but I have opted not to. Censorship on social media and internet and detention without trial in Mombasa seem to point in one direction. At least I confirmed that when Uhuru complaints people write "bad things" about him then he or his sycophants read these things. He should learn to say his own and not resort to draconian tactics. Unless is weak minded.

There is yet to be found a way for researchers to mitigate on the human need to be perceived 'positively' in public thus the prevalence of bias. Hell, humans are biased on any given thing!! 

[yulemsee]

Naona your Ombitho has given Kalonzo less popularity than MaDvD, are you guys elbowing him out of NASA?

[Omollo]

I have not looked at the data used by Ambitho. Have you? How does an opinion poll mean "elbowing" someone out of an alliance? Pollsters are not supposed to "give" someone popularity. Polls are supposed to measure many things among others - popularity.

I however don't know how "you guys" operate in Jubilee. Shall I expect that "you guys" will get rid of Ruto because he is scoring much less than Uhuru. Only "you guys" know.

Naona your Ombitho has given Kalonzo less popularity than MaDvD, are you guys elbowing him out of NASA?

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

There is yet to be found a way for researchers to mitigate on the human need to be perceived 'positively' in public thus the prevalence of bias. Hell, humans are biased on any given thing!! 

AI and machine learning will eventually put a number on that and solve it.  Still before I claim bias, I would at least want to know methodology, data...something to go off on.  For the converse reason, Ambitho and peers would be better served if they put this information out.

[Ole]

Why can't opposition parties employ their own pollsters to help them have internal polls that will help them determine on how to deploy resources and manpower. Obama was able to beat his opponents twice because he had very good pollsters that knew what message worked and where adds to should be ran and where Obama should appear in person. It becomes lame to be blaming public corrupt pollsters who seem to churn out numbers based on what the person with the most money wants.

[gout]

Bias and emotions are not a bad thing - they are what makes us humans. Trying to wish away fanatic hate/love for select people, things and actions is just naive. To expect the opinion polls or elections not to capture and reflect these biases and emotions is unfathomable.

[Omollo]

Please if you don't know anything about polls please find time to educate yourself first before weighing in with massive ignorance.

scientific Polls can be conducted in Kiambu and nyeri despite instances of individuals being victims of oaths not to vote for non Kikuyus.

If one were out to capture any of your pet issues - emotions, hate, fanaticism etc - there are specific tools for social experiments and research that would deliver. I can give you a crash course if you wish.

Once again, the bias I refer to has nothing to do with your pet issues. Iwinjo?
 

Bias and emotions are not a bad thing - they are what makes us humans. Trying to wish away fanatic hate/love for select people, things and actions is just naive. To expect the opinion polls or elections not to capture and reflect these biases and emotions is unfathomable.

[gout]

Essence of science is to capture everything not to filter to the convenience of a few. Trying to filter these biases, emotions and fanaticism in opinion polls is what led to the 'Trump shock' win.

[Omollo]

I think it is the opposite of what you say. The pollsters allowed bias especially in the interpretation of the otherwise accurate and unbiased data.

The sampling, collection and interpretation should be free of bias.

Essence of science is to capture everything not to filter to the convenience of a few. Trying to filter these biases, emotions and fanaticism in opinion polls is what led to the 'Trump shock' win.

[Ole]

Essence of science is to capture everything not to filter to the convenience of a few. Trying to filter these biases, emotions and fanaticism in opinion polls is what led to the 'Trump shock' win.

American pollsters largely got the polls right. If you see the margin that hillary beat trump in the national poll it exactly matches the average polls only percentages. The thing that pollsters got wring was the sate polls. And you know hilary had a very poor campaign strategy. She never visited the rustbelt states except a few stops in michigan a fee days before the vote.