Author Topic: There Goes Walmart Jobs  (Read 4518 times)

Offline Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants

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There Goes Walmart Jobs
« on: February 28, 2017, 02:44:08 AM »
Trump supporters, who they gonna blame now?

"I freed a thousand slaves.  I could have freed a thousand more if only they knew they were slaves."

Harriet Tubman

Offline Empedocles

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Re: There Goes Walmart Jobs
« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2017, 09:30:18 AM »
Trump supporters live in an alternate reality.

Amazon has already gone further, planning of getting rid of shop workers:


Now have the stores stocked and manned by robots.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: There Goes Walmart Jobs
« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2017, 09:48:07 AM »
The universal basic income idea maybe the only solution to counter automation. That would mean Amazons and Walmart having to pay way more taxes to gov that would then disburse basic universal income to every citizen.

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: There Goes Walmart Jobs
« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2017, 10:09:30 AM »
Universal basic income is already under test in Finland. It may actually stir more entrepreneurship by folks freed from daily survival headaches. Automation leads to more growth and opportunities not less.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: There Goes Walmart Jobs
« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2017, 10:19:48 AM »
I like that idea of basic income enough to buy basic human needs. It sound socialist but as long as we keep the balance so we don't demotivate capitalist spirit need to spur more innovation, growth and opportunities it probably will work. I am thinking we might see opportunities & growth outside areas where automation can do the job - I am thinking people who were pushing carts in super markets and factories - can find jobs doing what machines cannot do - like arts, like in hotels, hospitals, schools - name it.
Universal basic income is already under test in Finland. It may actually stir more entrepreneurship by folks freed from daily survival headaches. Automation leads to more growth and opportunities not less.

Offline Omollo

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Re: There Goes Walmart Jobs
« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2017, 11:36:34 AM »

The universal basic income idea maybe the only solution to counter automation. That would mean Amazons and Walmart having to pay way more taxes to gov that would then disburse basic universal income to every citizen.
Amen!

When it was first proposed, I distinctly heard the word "communism". Here we are. There is no chance of bringing back those "manufacturing jobs. High School graduates are basically useless unless they advance and focus on high tech professions. Even those will disappear.

It is higher taxes of we will get some very rich individuals or corporations in a sea of unheard of poverty.

Universal should be the goal. Some countries like Kenya could start by offering steady guaranteed income to all the unemployed including pensioners / elderly.
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline Kadudu

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Re: There Goes Walmart Jobs
« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2017, 02:31:27 PM »
Can you say who will foot that bill? Kenya cannot afford such a scheme as it will be marred with corruption. People will be collecting the dues of dead relatives and some will register in several counties at the same time. The authorities will close an eye as long as they get their cut.



When it was first proposed, I distinctly heard the word "communism". Here we are. There is no chance of bringing back those "manufacturing jobs. High School graduates are basically useless unless they advance and focus on high tech professions. Even those will disappear.

It is higher taxes of we will get some very rich individuals or corporations in a sea of unheard of poverty.

Universal should be the goal. Some countries like Kenya could start by offering steady guaranteed income to all the unemployed including pensioners / elderly.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: There Goes Walmart Jobs
« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2017, 03:35:28 PM »
It already been done in Kenya..in small scale..elderly, orphaned and disabled receive monthly stipend. With m-pesa this can be changed to daily stipend of say 2 usd dollars per day - 200shs or 6,000 per month - enough to lift many from poverty. If we determine that about 10M people are gainfully employed and supports another 3 - that is already 40M people we don't have to worry about now. We'd have to worry about 10m people. If you send them 2usd per day in 365 days that comes to 10,000,000*2*365 =7,300,000,000 - that about 7.3B USD - which is a lot for kenya now - so we may have to start with half of that 3.5B is doable - we would be giving universal income to 10m people - enough to make them live above the poverty line. This will be good start...but eventually we might just want to give everyone 200shs per day...whether they are poor or not....for kenya's 45-50m people (assume) - that is not a lot of money..about 35BUSD....and our budget is now nearly close to that.

If every country does that same - then poverty (at least absolute basic poverty) will be history.

Every human alive will be assured of kshs 200 (2 usd) per day  - international poverty line is around 2USd per day . In a global economy of more than 70 trillion USD...all 7B human beings...will just need 7B*2*365 =51 trillion usd per annum - which less than global economy now. If we got the robots working to improve global economy  to says 200 trillion - we could easily afford 51 trillion needed to daily send 2 usd to every human being.

And this is where m-pesa or mobile money kicks in - it make such ideas possible.

Human beings would have made poverty history. It would have ended poverty.

Offline Omollo

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Re: There Goes Walmart Jobs
« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2017, 04:02:11 PM »
There is enough to pay for it without having to beg donors.

Most of that money will be pumped back in to the economy and recovered through taxes. I am told the poor are good at spending.

Pundit: I know about the Pesa ya Wazee. It is a good start. However we need something for the unemployed youth. I would go by age from up downwards.

The key to its proper implementation is to overhaul the Population Register, Enhance the ZIP Code / Physical address for the whole country. The mobilephone would dispense with the need for banks but would not prevent corruption.

I also think such a scheme should be devolved.


Can you say who will foot that bill? Kenya cannot afford such a scheme as it will be marred with corruption. People will be collecting the dues of dead relatives and some will register in several counties at the same time. The authorities will close an eye as long as they get their cut.



When it was first proposed, I distinctly heard the word "communism". Here we are. There is no chance of bringing back those "manufacturing jobs. High School graduates are basically useless unless they advance and focus on high tech professions. Even those will disappear.

It is higher taxes of we will get some very rich individuals or corporations in a sea of unheard of poverty.

Universal should be the goal. Some countries like Kenya could start by offering steady guaranteed income to all the unemployed including pensioners / elderly.
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline Georgesoros

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Re: There Goes Walmart Jobs
« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2017, 04:16:39 PM »
The universal basic income idea maybe the only solution to counter automation. That would mean Amazons and Walmart having to pay way more taxes to gov that would then disburse basic universal income to every citizen.

I agree with you. Even Bill Gates suggested a tax on robots.
Kenya should have been offering the elderly (aged 70 and above a pension). Health should be free for these generation.
You said Kenya offers money to these generation but my neighbors never get a thing!

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: There Goes Walmart Jobs
« Reply #10 on: February 28, 2017, 04:52:54 PM »
When it was first proposed, I distinctly heard the word "communism". Here we are. There is no chance of bringing back those "manufacturing jobs. High School graduates are basically useless unless they advance and focus on high tech professions. Even those will disappear.

It is higher taxes of we will get some very rich individuals or corporations in a sea of unheard of poverty.

Universal should be the goal. Some countries like Kenya could start by offering steady guaranteed income to all the unemployed including pensioners / elderly.

Worries about the possible loss of existing manufacturing jobs and the failure to return of lost manufacturing jobs are for those who have or have had such jobs---in serious numbers, that is.    So places like Kenya may relax on that front.

Over the next 20-30 years, the countries that will make the most impact on the financial status of their citizens are those who are grabbing the manufacturing jobs that are being lost by others.    Those are primarily South-East Asian countries: Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, etc.     

What countries like Kenya ought to do is their share of the grabbing.  They will then be in a better position to give "guaranteed income to all the unemployed including pensioners/elderly".   As it is, even the small scheme that is currently in place is not fully funded by the government.
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Offline Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants

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Re: There Goes Walmart Jobs
« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2017, 04:58:38 PM »
The universal basic income idea maybe the only solution to counter automation. That would mean Amazons and Walmart having to pay way more taxes to gov that would then disburse basic universal income to every citizen.

I think it goes back to the singularity discussion we once had on this forum.  I think Robina's is closer to the truth in that sense.  When something that was once difficult to do becomes a walk in the park, there will be demand for something else more difficult to achieve.
"I freed a thousand slaves.  I could have freed a thousand more if only they knew they were slaves."

Harriet Tubman

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: There Goes Walmart Jobs
« Reply #12 on: February 28, 2017, 05:02:45 PM »
Can you say who will foot that bill? Kenya cannot afford such a scheme as it will be marred with corruption. People will be collecting the dues of dead relatives and some will register in several counties at the same time. The authorities will close an eye as long as they get their cut.

Take a look at the Auditor-General's 2016 report on the current small scheme.     The AG has been able to determine that the money to be dished out was transferred to KCB.   How much was dished out,  how many people benefited, how much each person got ... the AG is unable to say because he has been unable to obtain the relevant records.     Might there be some eating?  You tell me; after all, this is Kenya.
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Offline Empedocles

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Re: There Goes Walmart Jobs
« Reply #13 on: February 28, 2017, 05:24:43 PM »
Can you say who will foot that bill? Kenya cannot afford such a scheme as it will be marred with corruption. People will be collecting the dues of dead relatives and some will register in several counties at the same time. The authorities will close an eye as long as they get their cut.

Take a look at the Auditor-General's 2016 report on the current small scheme.     The AG has been able to determine that the money to be dished out was transferred to KCB.   How much was dished out,  how many people benefited, how much each person got ... the AG is unable to say because he has been unable to obtain the relevant records.     Might there be some eating?  You tell me; after all, this is Kenya.

Private individuals already know that. They've been running UBI directly:

https://www.givedirectly.org/

Had seen this a few days ago:

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GiveDirectly, a charity running a 12-year-long experiment in basic income later this year, has received a sizable investment from eBay's founder.

Omidyar Network, the philanthropic investment arm started by eBay founder Pierre Omidyar, has invested $493,000 into an experiment giving people in Kenya free money.

The experiment, put on by the charity GiveDirectly, tests an up-and-coming solution to poverty known as basic income. People under basic income receive a set amount of money on a regular basis to cover expenses like rent, food, and clothing.

GiveDirectly is running a small pilot in just a few Kenyan villages at present, but once the full experiment launches in a few months it will be the largest basic income experiment in history. More than 26,000 people will receive free money in some form, whether it's for a period of 12 years, just a couple, or in a lump sum or spread out.

Not much long-term research on basic income exists, but the studies that have been performed suggest only good comes from helping poor people meet their financial needs.

People's stress goes down, while self-sufficiency goes up. People have started businesses, sent kids to school, and made vital home repairs on basic income. Some research even says drug and alcohol use declines as people have fewer reasons to be stressed.

"Omidyar Network's foundational belief that empowering people frees them to better themselves, their families, and their communities has great evidence in the growing literature around the benefits of cash transfers," manager Tracy Williams and partner Mike Kubzansky wrote in the blog post announcing Omidyar's investment.

GiveDirectly has raised $23.7 million of its targeted $30 million. A spokesperson from the charity says the new investment does not change the timeline of the overall experiment.

Omidyar, for its part, has expressed optimism that once it begins it'll produce many fruitful insights "unlike those of any past study and provide evidence-based arguments to shed light on the discussions around the future of work and poverty alleviation policies."

http://www.plive.co.ke/bi/tech/in-us-ebays-founder-just-invested-500-000-into-an-experiment-giving-away-free-money-id6192560.html

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: There Goes Walmart Jobs
« Reply #14 on: February 28, 2017, 07:58:47 PM »
I think it goes back to the singularity discussion we once had on this forum.  I think Robina's is closer to the truth in that sense.  When something that was once difficult to do becomes a walk in the park, there will be demand for something else more difficult to achieve.

That is true only if one considers homo sapiens as a whole.   Otherwise, many people will happily do zilch if they can get away with it, or even just think they can get away with it, and contribute nothing to the world.         
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Offline RV Pundit

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Re: There Goes Walmart Jobs
« Reply #15 on: February 28, 2017, 08:09:49 PM »
I think the idea is to guarantee the third generation rights - those are basic rights to food, shelter, health,education and clothing.  Under the current model - many countries have - guaranteed health and education - but despite the enormous wealth - we still have people starving to death or skipping meals or folks who don't have roof or clothing - about 2 billions living in abject poverty like wild animals.

We've determined that with 2usd per day per person we can lift people out of poverty. We've tried to get people out of poverty through many complicated ways that we think would be sustainable. Evidence has shown how incredibly difficult these many complicated ways can move them from poverty. We have never thought what would happen - if we m-pesad people the 2 usd per day - that would automatically move everyone beyond the poverty line. You wake up and you've enough to buy food, clothes and housing for that day.

My calculation shows we need just 51 trillion usd to gurantee everyone 2ud per day in the whole planet earth and make poverty history. This is the base salary for everyone. Whatever extra you'll make we'd know you aint dying from hunger without it.

We as human being would then have transcended other animals.We'd say if you're human -we guarantee your basic needs as well as your basic rights. The same way we think about universal education or health care - we should think about universal food, housing and shelter.

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: There Goes Walmart Jobs
« Reply #16 on: February 28, 2017, 10:05:15 PM »
I think the idea is to guarantee the third generation rights - those are basic rights to food, shelter, health,education and clothing.  Under the current model - many countries have - guaranteed health and education - but despite the enormous wealth - we still have people starving to death or skipping meals or folks who don't have roof or clothing - about 2 billions living in abject poverty like wild animals.

Very noble sentiments, indeed.     And we already have these rights enshrined in the UN Human Charter on Human rights, which most countries have agreed to.   But it is wishful thinking to believe  that rich countries are (or would be) agreeable to spreading wealth around, no matter how many billions live "in abject poverty like wild animals".  In fact, the title of this thread is about people in rich countries who think (partly wrongly) that their jobs and money have (supposedly unfairly) gone to poorer countries.   They want them back, and they want to stop further movement.    You won't here anyone saying, "Look those people need them more than we do, because they are poorer and we must work towards eradicating or reducing global poverty.  Let's spread the wealth around.".   

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We've determined that with 2usd per day per person we can lift people out of poverty. We've tried to get people out of poverty through many complicated ways that we think would be sustainable. Evidence has shown how incredibly difficult these many complicated ways can move them from poverty. We have never thought what would happen - if we m-pesad people the 2 usd per day - that would automatically move everyone beyond the poverty line. You wake up and you've enough to buy food, clothes and housing for that day.

What are the many complicated ways and how are extremely difficult?  We know a sure-fire way to move masses out of poverty: make sure they have decent-paying jobs.    How many people has China moved out of poverty in the last 25 years?   How has it been done?

And take our country as an example.   What exactly has been tried to lift the masses out of poverty?     What appropriate government policies do we currently have in place for that and how are they being implemented to do what is required?    It's not about complicated and incredibly difficult ways.

Except for those who are infirm---because of old age etc.---anyone who wants to be in a position where  "you wake up and you've enough to buy food, clothes and housing for that day", should do one thing: go out there, put in a good slog, and make sure you get paid enough---before going to bed.   An old and well-known method, with a very high success rate.

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My calculation shows we need just 51 trillion usd to gurantee everyone 2ud per day in the whole planet earth and make poverty history. This is the base salary for everyone. Whatever extra you'll make we'd know you aint dying from hunger without it.

That amount already exists.   But, as I have noted above, those who hold it won't be parting with it any time soon.  They might occasionally dole out little bits---such as now when we have declared a hunger emergency and set out pleas to the "international community"---but that's about it. 

In any case, what kind of of life does one really get for US$2 per day (Sh. 6000 per month), even in a place like Kenya?

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We as human being would then have transcended other animals.

That is highly debatable. 

First, we are still greatly driven by the same primitive needs: sex, food, etc.  All that our "advances" mean is that we have the leisure time to devise kinkier and more varied forms of sex, we get to eat food prepared in fancier ways, etc.; but that's all, and we still devote a great deal of energy in the pursuit of those things in their "new-and-improved" forms. 

Second, from the point of view of other animals, we have completely gone down; these days, humans will even kill other animals just for fun!  Our "advances" have made life hell for other species on Planet Earth, and there is the real danger that we'll completely destroy the place.   (We are already doing "well" with things like global warming.)    Perhaps robots should be promoted on the grounds that they might be able to run the place a bit better than we have done so far.   
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Offline RV Pundit

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Re: There Goes Walmart Jobs
« Reply #17 on: March 01, 2017, 09:10:03 AM »
Moonki,
I am surprised you're not aware of the gazillions of ideas that have been tried by gov and ngos for last many years to fight poverty with limited success. I think you're mistaken to imagine China or the new industrial powers are immune from technology revolution going on now. Robots, Artificial intelligence & info technology are going to drive many jobs - service (see banking for example, retail  -walmart), manufacturing, name any sector (self-driven cars?) - public sector jobs will disappear too with Information Tech Revolution going full steam.Jobs will disappear but economy will grow even bigger. US jobs have disappeared but US economy has grown bigger - not shrunk.

We are going into a stage of jobless growth - and this universal (country) basic minimum income - seem the only way to shares that growth - otherwise the few who have the capital to buy robots will dominate the world while leaving everyone starving. Rather than employ 10,000 people - companies will be employing 100,000 robots - making way more money.

2usd per day is per person...so for typical kenyan family of 5...that would mean 30,000 kshs per month or 6,000 per person. Definitely from the AID bugdet alone...we could possibly afford to send 2usd per day per person for those 2b or about folks living in poverty. China,India and Indonesia if they did this - would have lifted nearly half of the poor people.

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: There Goes Walmart Jobs
« Reply #18 on: March 01, 2017, 05:49:11 PM »
Moonki,
I am surprised you're not aware of the gazillions of ideas that have been tried by gov and ngos for last many years to fight poverty with limited success.

Yes, I am not.   Once you get over your surprise, please tell me, and we can discuss them. Doesn't have to be gazillions; just three or four will do.

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US jobs have disappeared but US economy has grown bigger - not shrunk

Huh? You are mixing up different things and assuming that certain types of manufacturing jobs constitute all the jobs there are.    The number of jobs in the US is actually at an all-time high and has been growing rapidly during Obama's time.  Look here:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001   


And those are the numbers for jobs filled.   Right now (Feb 2017), there's another 5.5 million jobs that require people.   

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I think you're mistaken to imagine China or the new industrial powers are immune from technology revolution going on now.

Huh ?!?  What gave you the idea that I believe that.    Given your claims of "many complicated ways that we think would be sustainable. Evidence has shown how incredibly difficult", I simply asked a question:

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How many people has China moved out of poverty in the last 25 years?   How has it been done?

That's the question I wanted answered, and I don't where that tangent of yours comes from.  If other examples help to see what I am getting at, take South Korea and Kenya in 1963 and South Korea and Kenya in 2017.    What made the difference.   Right now, you can look at what's happening in places like Vietnam and compare with what's happening in Kenya.   And so on, and so forth.

I also asked about GoK's policies and plans to lift Kenyan masses out of poverty and how those are being implemented.

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We are going into a stage of jobless growth - and this universal (country) basic minimum income - seem the only way to shares that growth - otherwise the few who have the capital to buy robots will dominate the world while leaving everyone starving.

Tell that to the desperate unemployed.   What makes you think that people are interested in sharing the growth?  Now you are with me.    If you look at the world right now, the rich are where they are, enjoying being rich; and we know where the world's starving are to be found.    What the latter need to do is take care of themselves.   Waiting for robots from the former to deliver $2 handouts will not do much.

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2usd per day is per person...so for typical kenyan family of 5...that would mean 30,000 kshs per month or 6,000 per person. Definitely from the AID bugdet alone...we could possibly afford to send 2usd per day per person

That's the problem with places like Kenya.  Always "AID!", "international community please help!", ... And now we are planning for a nation of layabouts, receiving handouts from those who have worked for their money?   

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we could possibly afford to send 2usd per day per person for those 2b or about folks living in poverty. China,India and Indonesia if they did this - would have lifted nearly half of the poor people.

See my question above on China.   India has learned something from such which is why the government launched "Make In India":   http://www.makeinindia.com/home

From the "About":

Quote
The Make in India initiative was launched by Prime Minister in September 2014 as part of a wider set of nation-building initiatives. Devised to transform India into a global design and manufacturing hub. 

No funny ideas about $2 handouts. 

Indonesia: Have you looked at the number of manufacturing jobs it is grabbing from elsewhere? 
MOON Ki  is  Muli Otieno Otiende Njoroge arap Kiprotich
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Offline RV Pundit

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Re: There Goes Walmart Jobs
« Reply #19 on: March 02, 2017, 07:36:20 AM »
Moonki as obtuse as always. I am going to ignore the little details and focus on the big picture. We are talking about a future where jobs as we know of will not exist. Self-driven cars doing taxis and driving trucks, robots working in factories & super-markets, drones diriving commercial jets, branchless banks ran entirely from some algorithm like m-shwari or mobile-money loans that in kenya annually disperse billions with little human intervention - what computer chips loaded with software (including artificial intelligence) will be able to do is only limited by your imagination.

That future will take away jobs (including manufacturing) that have driven most humans out of poverty. That future is now - it already happening. The jobs that we know of will mostly disappear everywhere - china, india or US.

There will probably be new jobs - but will those newly created jobs - replace the old stable jobs that allowed folks to raise families & live middle class life? most likely not.

The guys who own capital (rich men) will make more money from robots -than pesky factory workers for example - and gov will also make more money taxing them - but rest of people will have nothing much to do - and will be in need of some source of assured income - and this universal income seems one of the good ideas.

I am little surprised that you're not aware of the many ideas that have been tried before to fight poverty.Not really - your obtuseness is legendary.Of course you're now obsessed  with manufacturing as only way to pull folks out of poverty.