Jubillee cracking under pesa mashinani pressure

[RV Pundit]

• Tweet

They want constitutional amendment in parliament to short circuit pesa mashinani....given they know they will be floored...if this goes to the referendum.

http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000135077/jubilee-in-twin-strategy-to-scuttle-referendum

[Mintos]

heh heh they started with loud opposition saying it is a Cord thing that should be opposed, then to threats to members against any indication to support (those Gema Govs who retreated); a court case by Kanini Kega; proposing they will buy MCAs with 12B (car grants and PAs and offices etc); threatening the other Jubilee Govs to resign from party; 10 million signatures to counter Cords 5 million; now a parliamentary amendment. What next? This is vere interesting.

[RV Pundit]

Talk of a slippery slope. They've boxed themselves into the corner. Raila if he has won luhyas like i suspect after madvd-wamalwa went MIA...might also win the other referendum. It definitely will be 50-50%. Now if you have pesa mashinani..that will tilt the scale for CORD.

Let hope Gen Wachira Kameru will be honest to the kings that they are walking naked...opposing devolution.

heh heh they started with loud opposition saying it is a Cord thing that should be opposed, then to threats to members against any indication to support (those Gema Govs who retreated); a court case by Kanini Kega; proposing they will buy MCAs with 12B (car grants and PAs and offices etc); threatening the other Jubilee Govs to resign from party; 10 million signatures to counter Cords 5 million; now a parliamentary amendment. What next? This is vere interesting.

[Omollo]

I think the parliamentary route will fail.

Reason 1: The Hardliners have Jitoto by the Jewels and he can't act out of the box. They are not used to eating humble pie.

Second reason: Those behind the proposal - Oloo and Sakaja - are light weight outsiders whose usefulness is long past the Use-by-date. They can make all manner of useful proposals but will not be listened to.

Third: The Whackos led by Karangi have a mix of hatred for Raila and see any compromise as a "defeat".

Conclusion: This goes to the ballot, with unpredictable events after the clear defeat.

[Omollo]

Talk of a slippery slope. They've boxed themselves into the corner. Raila if he has won luhyas like i suspect after madvd-wamalwa went MIA...might also win the other referendum. It definitely will be 50-50%. Now if you have pesa mashinani..that will tilt the scale for CORD.

Let hope Gen Wachira Kameru will be honest to the kings that they are walking naked...opposing devolution.

You heard the cheers that Isaac got. Anything against pesa mashinani is similar to standing up at an Evangelical Revival Rally to praise The Devil! The Kajwangs of this world have grabbed on it and simplified it to bringing money to the nearest tree shade to share it out! Khalwale has worked up the Luhyas to a frenzy and put Wamalwa and Madvd out of action. The battle is now in RV - suo moto. It is NOT CORD driving it. Politicians have sensed a weakness and like all hyenas are turning on their own for the kill.

[Omollo]

heh heh they started with loud opposition saying it is a Cord thing that should be opposed, then to threats to members against any indication to support (those Gema Govs who retreated); a court case by Kanini Kega; proposing they will buy MCAs with 12B (car grants and PAs and offices etc); threatening the other Jubilee Govs to resign from party; 10 million signatures to counter Cords 5 million; now a parliamentary amendment. What next? This is vere interesting.

Mintos

Jitoto has surrounded himself with sycophants and parasites who will tell him anything to use him for their own benefit.

[RV Pundit]

Politically Jubilee have screwed up in Western by letting Amani out there in the cold for too long...giving Khawale-Raila space to take it up without a fight.

Assuming the 2013 voters align similarly; this is now 50-50;  Of course there is a new element of rebellion in Kalenjin land.On matters dear to RV...like Land or Devolution...Ruto will walk alone...with TNA. TNA may have to cut a deal with MaDVD and Wamalwa very soon..hope Amani can retain the 4% edge...against CORD.

But they are many hurdles...first is go past 24 County Assemblies...second is IEBC funding..Jubilee parliament will refuse to allocate funds for a referendum (am not sure if courts can unlock that).

But at least we have something to talk about for next 1yr. Personally i more open minded now...and will support or oppose any ammendments on merit.

You heard the cheers that Isaac got. Anything against pesa mashinani is similar to standing up at an Evangelical Revival Rally to praise The Devil! The Kajwangs of this world have grabbed on it and simplified it to bringing money to the nearest tree shade to share it out! Khalwale has worked up the Luhyas to a frenzy and put Wamalwa and Madvd out of action. The battle is now in RV - suo moto. It is NOT CORD driving it. Politicians have sensed a weakness and like all hyenas are turning on their own for the kill.

[Omollo]

Politically Jubilee have screwed up in Western by letting Amani out there in the cold. Assuming the 2013 voters align similarly; this is now 50-50;  Of course there is a new element of rebellion in Kalenjin land.On matters dear to RV...like Land or Devolution...Ruto will walk alone...with TNA. TNA may have to cut a deal with MaDVD and Wamalwa very soon..hope Amani can retain the 4% edge...against CORD.

But they are many hurdles...first is go past 24 County Assemblies...second is IEBC funding..Jubilee parliament will refuse to allocate funds for a referendum (am not sure if courts can unlock that).

But at least we have something to talk about for next 1yr. Personally i more open minded now...and will support or oppose any amendments on merit.

I don't really know what Jubilee would have done for Amani. Madvd had a little credibility which he used to cheat some people around Kakamega and his native Vihiga to vote against Raila and thus helped Jubilee destroy CORD votes. Madvd did not even get the majority vote in his own Vihiga and lost Kakamega miserably. ODM fell asleep towards the end and ceded free seats in Vihiga (Senate and Parliament). They equally ceded votes in Tavetta allowing Shabani to steal a seat.

So back to Western, Amani was never a viable vehicle and I think dumping Madvd is the wisest decision that Jitoto has made. I had hoped he would embrace him like he has Dr. Shabani, so that we could take over Vihiga comprehensively as we now have Taita Taveta.

If Jubilee lets this thing go to vote and be done with next year, it has a chance on some of the issues. If it draws it to closer to the general elections, it has zero chance. The closer to elections the easier it will be for CORD to mobilize funds from candidates determined to eliminate sitting ones. Loyalties in Jubilee will fall (as will in all alliances) leaving the party with a popular issue to win popular support. If done and finished by 2015, CORD will need to find another unifying issue and that will be hard to come by.

[RV Pundit]

Things are hot for UhuRuto...they are going to get really tested..in the coming few yrs...governors on one side..cord on the other side. I am not sure how coast will play...seem Jubilee has made some head ways..but knowing those coasterians..they will remain distrustful of a Kenyatta.

If they cannot bribe or cajole 24 county assemblies to block this..then mambo bad.

I don't really know what Jubilee would have done for Amani. Madvd had a little credibility which he used to cheat some people around Kakamega and his native Vihiga to vote against Raila and thus helped Jubilee destroy CORD votes. Madvd did not even get the majority vote in his own Vihiga and lost Kakamega miserably. ODM fell asleep towards the end and ceded free seats in Vihiga (Senate and Parliament). They equally ceded votes in Tavetta allowing Shabani to steal a seat.

So back to Western, Amani was never a viable vehicle and I think dumping Madvd is the wisest decision that Jitoto has made. I had hoped he would embrace him like he has Dr. Shabani, so that we could take over Vihiga comprehensively as we now have Taita Taveta.

If Jubilee lets this thing go to vote and be done with next year, it has a chance on some of the issues. If it draws it to closer to the general elections, it has zero chance. The closer to elections the easier it will be for CORD to mobilize funds from candidates determined to eliminate sitting ones. Loyalties in Jubilee will fall (as will in all alliances) leaving the party with a popular issue to win popular support. If done and finished by 2015, CORD will need to find another unifying issue and that will be hard to come by.

[Omollo]

Things are hot for UhuRuto...they are going to get really tested..in the coming few yrs...governors on one side..cord on the other side. I am not sure how coast will play...seem Jubilee has made some head ways..but knowing those coasterians..they will remain distrustful of a Kenyatta.

If they cannot bribe or cajole 24 county assemblies to block this..then mambo bad.

Coast: They have managed to buy off some leaders. But these leaders are on their way out. Mungaro is politically dead. The Kwale lot are afraid of being EJK'ed because of Pwani si Kenya. Mark my words, they are deep inside MRC (they have no choice if they don't want to see themselves out of office, replaced by village idiots) and they support ODM.

Abdulswamad is playing with fire. He has taken the Balala route and that leads to the sea. He has until next year to change or you will see a new MP for Mvita. Remember what I told you about Balala when he started his games of pretending he has votes in Mombasa. Abdulswamad has the name of the father going for him; He is the recipient of the Huge Arab Charity money which he uses to spread his influence around. Both can go at once: The Arab money went to him on the recommendation of the old men who rule Mvita. They have a deal with the "Wanyika" on the distribution of seats at the Coast which leaves them with Mvita and allows Kisauni to float. Abdulswamad is breaking that deal and they will ask the Arabs to shut the money pipes and that is it.