The Writing Is On The Wall - Jubilee is On its Way out

[Omollo]

I was in KANU the morning Kibaki and co held a rally at Uhuru park. I said the same thing before Raila rose to say Kibaki Tosha.

Defeat to who? Nasa? COrd? Raila? Mudavadi? Kalonzo? Wetangula? Or Gideon Moi

In short, Uhuru has two choices:

1. To accept defeat and be guaranteed to continue drinking off the wealth his parents stole including killing and selling elephants
2. Attempt to rig elections using Safaricom and by corrupting the new IEBC

I don't see Uhuru winning this election if it is free and fair.

[RV Pundit]

Western was my achilles heels(I overrated Amani -maDVD+wamalwa NFK and underrated Raila ) but having spend some time there  I can tell you I know western now like the back of my hand. Coast is 50-50 play now. The same case with Gusii.

As you well know I have long history of doing these things.

Robina will confirm. Check the presidential, senatorial & mp prediction.

Final MOAS(%):J53 C37 A8 O2
..
Sen/Gov:J25/C17/A3/O2.

Mps:JU60JT85/CW28CO87/A16/O14

E+-3

Overally I was within the margin of error.

Pundit

I cannot relate to propaganda. What you have done is simply reproduce Jubilee internal talking points and added a little bit of Ruto's notes to Uhuru when he is requesting for more funds.

I will take you seriously if you share how you arrive at those blanket conclusions.

Please let me know when Ben Njomo Washiali will hold a public rally to drum support for Uhuru in Mumias and I will concede that Uhuru will get some votes. Washiali is going home and he is lining his pockets to polish his pension. I cannot count how many funerals from which he has been ejected. He however has very cosy relations with Kikuyu owned media which somehow always happens to be around when he carries out his stunts for the benefit of Uhuru and yourselves. I pity you if you rely on such characters.

Then there is Lusaka. Jesus. The next governor of Bungoma is the Former Internal Security Assistant Minister. Lusaka is going home. He came in to office by compromise having cheated ODM he will work with them. Not this time bro.

What vote do you have at the Coast? Mwashetani is going home because ODM has refused to allow him back in to CORD. Mungaro cant win his own Malindi seat and can continue screwing everything in a skirt in hotels while cheating Uhuru.

If you keep Mvurya we take Mwakwere. Whoever runs on ODM wins Kwale. Take it to the bank. Where are your votes in Kwale? Not with Uhuru owning thousands of acres of land there.

What about Taita-Taveta? No chance bro. Its CORD territory.

Need I add Mombasa?

You will get some votes in Tana River because of ethnicity. If we take the Orma you take the Pokomo. That is guaranteed.

But of course according to you, Uhuru has delivered so he will get all the votes. Those beaten and killed in Mumias will ignore their beatings and follow Njomo to Jomo's son.

What a joke

Omollo,
I am going to summarize coz we are unlikely to agree on anything.
Supreme court ruled that invalid votes won't count in the tally (see Kuria's petition) and therefore Jubilee won with 53%.

Why would a Kalenjin or Gema who voted for Uhuruto then with ICC & scaremongering then..not vote for UhuRuto who are delivering ( I consider it the gov that has delivered the MOST) is beyond me. Jubilee is building combined 200kms in every county, has supplied electricity and several other projects.

Gema+Kalenjin will vote UhuRuto with the same intensity. Isaac Ruto and Gideon Moi are just like Raila men -Franklin Bett and company - but this time I doubt they'll go all the way - expect them recoil - we will back Uhuru but not ruto.

That leave UhuRuto need few top ups - and there is no reason why they won't get the 53% - I think they'll get extra 5% from Ruto relentless campainging.

In COAST - Raila edge is gone - I see 50-50 game down there. The same with Gusii - 50-50 game. Pastoralist ( you know them) will vote 70% Jubilee or even more. Mwakere & Ongeri are moving out because mainstream popular politicians like mvurya and kisii senator Obure are moving to Jubilee.

Uhuru in western will get Kalenjin's Sabaot and few bukusu (Lusaka is very strong), few mumias folks (Ben Washiali also strong) - but those are tops up -already Jubilee would be nearing 60%.Ukambani - Mutua has actually delivered - just like Jubilee - tangible stuff like nearly 60-100kms of tarmac road, piped water, 70 ambulance and working hospitals - why would somebody vote him out - machakos is locked - Mutua is working on Makueni & Kitui.

Uhuru is sleepwalking to another term. You can disagree but we will see in eight months.

[Omollo]

These are mere suppositions. Supposition: belief, surmise, idea, notion, suspicion, conjecture, speculation, view, inference, theory, thesis, hypothesis, postulation, guess, guesswork, feeling, hunch, assumption, presumption......

I can't stop you from exercising your imagination bro.

I see uhuru improving everywhere in that map. Gusii & Machakos will be 50-50. Bungoma with Wetangula running back to be governor will be anyone game - Uhuru got votes from Mt elgon only - New Ford Kenya voted for MaDVD. Uhuru will improve in Kakamega esp amongst the wanga. Busia - Teso versus Luhya war - will implode ODM support there - so expect Jubilee to gain. Vihiga is maDVD.

Uhuru votes in selected areas 2013
----------------------------------UHURU--------------------------------RAILA-----------------------MDVD
Kakamega-----------------------12,469--------------------------------303,120---------------------144,962
Vihiga----------------------------2,542----------------------------------77,825----------------------82,426
Bungoma------------------------42,988--------------------------------185,419---------------------107,868
Busia-----------------------------8,186---------------------------------189,161---------------------18,608
Total-----------------------------66,185-------------------------755,525
Machakos-------------------------35,660-------------------------------319,594
Kitui-------------------------------40,752-------------------------------219,588
Makueni---------------------------12,652-------------------------------228,843
Total-------------------------------89,064----------------------768,025
Kisii--------------------------------95,596------------------------------236,831
Nyamira----------------------------54,071------------------------------121,590
The votes in Bungoma arose out of deep ethnic divisions incited by Musikari Kombo. Note however that More people voted for Kombo than Uhuru Kenyatta.

This time round his goose is cooked. He may even get more votes in Kakamega than Bungoma. This after the Chwele incident that saw Kikuyu shops burnt

[RV Pundit]

Nope. I actually have done this kind of prediction before and I have hit the bulls eye - severally including predicting Jubile will win last election by 53%  and that Ruto's NO campaign would hit 30% - nobody came near predicting that.

This is my territory. I have given you rough moas. expect Uhuru to win anything 55-60%. I'll refined as we go to the last digit.

These are mere suppositions. Supposition: belief, surmise, idea, notion, suspicion, conjecture, speculation, view, inference, theory, thesis, hypothesis, postulation, guess, guesswork, feeling, hunch, assumption, presumption......

I can't stop you from exercising your imagination bro.

I see uhuru improving everywhere in that map. Gusii & Machakos will be 50-50. Bungoma with Wetangula running back to be governor will be anyone game - Uhuru got votes from Mt elgon only - New Ford Kenya voted for MaDVD. Uhuru will improve in Kakamega esp amongst the wanga. Busia - Teso versus Luhya war - will implode ODM support there - so expect Jubilee to gain. Vihiga is maDVD.

Uhuru votes in selected areas 2013
----------------------------------UHURU--------------------------------RAILA-----------------------MDVD
Kakamega-----------------------12,469--------------------------------303,120---------------------144,962
Vihiga----------------------------2,542----------------------------------77,825----------------------82,426
Bungoma------------------------42,988--------------------------------185,419---------------------107,868
Busia-----------------------------8,186---------------------------------189,161---------------------18,608
Total-----------------------------66,185-------------------------755,525
Machakos-------------------------35,660-------------------------------319,594
Kitui-------------------------------40,752-------------------------------219,588
Makueni---------------------------12,652-------------------------------228,843
Total-------------------------------89,064----------------------768,025
Kisii--------------------------------95,596------------------------------236,831
Nyamira----------------------------54,071------------------------------121,590
The votes in Bungoma arose out of deep ethnic divisions incited by Musikari Kombo. Note however that More people voted for Kombo than Uhuru Kenyatta.

This time round his goose is cooked. He may even get more votes in Kakamega than Bungoma. This after the Chwele incident that saw Kikuyu shops burnt

[RV Pundit]

MOAS in 2010 referendum:NO 33% versus 67%..finally came down to 31% versus 67% (with 2% spoilt).

Pollsters 20-25% versus 70-75%.

Just wait for MOAS but start thinking of figures - low of 55% for Uhuru and high of 60%

[Omollo]

You will get it wrong this time not least because having made up your mind that Jubilee will win, you are on a mission to gather the evidence to support your hypothesis.

In the past you were largely non partisan. You may have supported ODM in 2007 but you were a later comer to the train having been a DP man for a long time. So your position in 2013 was dictated by your political affiliations and compromises.

After the elections you suffered a bit of frustration but I am sure they sent an emissary to you with certain proposals for some understandings and I have to conclude you signed up. This does happen. You went slow on Uhuru and have since joined his corner. Firmly too.

The effect of understandings is the loss of objectivity. For instance you continue to blindly deny that the 2013 election was stolen. You refuse to examine the evidence just like The Pope refused to look in to Galileo's telescope.

I have to say you have lost your objectivity and taken on the role of a Jubilee Propagandist. It has made me lose the urge to debate you because I am aware of your vested interests.

Am I neutral? No I support CORD and am a member of ODM (unpaid).

Nope. I actually have done this kind of prediction before and I have hit the bulls eye - severally including predicting Jubile will win last election by 53%  and that Ruto's NO campaign would hit 30% - nobody came near predicting that.

This is my territory. I have given you rough moas. expect Uhuru to win anything 55-60%. I'll refined as we go to the last digit.

[RV Pundit]

The last politician I ever saw was 16 yrs ago. Kipngeno arap Ngeny as minister of water. I remain as observant and as objective as ever.Our tribal based politics is pretty easy. The hard part is the few swing areas. Unless NASA thing catches some fire - expect Uhuru to romp home with 57% plus minus 3%.

Kenya can save themselves all the billions by just using MOAS.

You will get it wrong this time not least because having made up your mind that Jubilee will win, you are on a mission to gather the evidence to support your hypothesis.

In the past you were largely non partisan. You may have supported ODM in 2007 but you were a later comer to the train having been a DP man for a long time. So your position in 2013 was dictated by your political affiliations and compromises.

After the elections you suffered a bit of frustration but I am sure they sent an emissary to you with certain proposals for some understandings and I have to conclude you signed up. This does happen. You went slow on Uhuru and have since joined his corner. Firmly too.

The effect of understandings is the loss of objectivity. For instance you continue to blindly deny that the 2013 election was stolen. You refuse to examine the evidence just like The Pope refused to look in to Galileo's telescope.

I have to say you have lost your objectivity and taken on the role of a Jubilee Propagandist. It has made me lose the urge to debate you because I am aware of your vested interests.

Am I neutral? No I support CORD and am a member of ODM (unpaid).

Nope. I actually have done this kind of prediction before and I have hit the bulls eye - severally including predicting Jubile will win last election by 53%  and that Ruto's NO campaign would hit 30% - nobody came near predicting that.

This is my territory. I have given you rough moas. expect Uhuru to win anything 55-60%. I'll refined as we go to the last digit.

[Globalcitizen12]

Pundit,
I am not familiar with RV and I think Ruto has this under lock. in Central Uhuru needs a miracle to get a turnout of more than 75%. The revolt is real. young people feel cheated and neglected. Jubilee over promised and under delivered mashinani. The county governments have failed to fill  in the void left as Uhuru focused on national leadership. right now the mood is foul. Uhuru is ruling with a professional cabinet and most first time MPs who cannot deliver and assuage the feeling of voters like the OLD Mafias would do akina Karume and Michuki.

 corruption that is now pointing straight to Kenyatta family ie the latest revelation that Gethi was paid 6.5 billon on behalf of Gatheca ngina's relative is really hurting Uhuru's image.

You will notice very few MPs and governors are selling Jubilee achievements at the local level. they are now planning on clinching Jubilee nomination and then avoid owning Uhuru underperformance but get reelected. As long as CORD stays on message and offers change message.. the sail winds are on CORD's back nationally.

Uhuru has failed to focus on corruption and local bread and butter issues. The talk now is let Waiguru and Co vote for him.

Uhuru had the opportunities to listen and reign in Corruption and caution Ruto on wanton looting but he failed and his supporters do not want to be part of his failure.

February is the day will know for sure how this sings

[Nefertiti]

Yes Global, the tide is not on Jubilee's side. There is no referendum on ICC and the core message is: Let us complete our program. The ball is in CORD/Opposition's court to craft a winning message.

[hk]

Pundit,
I am not familiar with RV and I think Ruto has this under lock. in Central Uhuru needs a miracle to get a turnout of more than 75%. The revolt is real. young people feel cheated and neglected. Jubilee over promised and under delivered mashinani. The county governments have failed to fill  in the void left as Uhuru focused on national leadership. right now the mood is foul. Uhuru is ruling with a professional cabinet and most first time MPs who cannot deliver and assuage the feeling of voters like the OLD Mafias would do akina Karume and Michuki.

 corruption that is now pointing straight to Kenyatta family ie the latest revelation that Gethi was paid 6.5 billon on behalf of Gatheca ngina's relative is really hurting Uhuru's image.

You will notice very few MPs and governors are selling Jubilee achievements at the local level. they are now planning on clinching Jubilee nomination and then avoid owning Uhuru underperformance but get reelected. As long as CORD stays on message and offers change message.. the sail winds are on CORD's back nationally.

Uhuru has failed to focus on corruption and local bread and butter issues. The talk now is let Waiguru and Co vote for him.

Uhuru had the opportunities to listen and reign in Corruption and caution Ruto on wanton looting but he failed and his supporters do not want to be part of his failure.

February is the day will know for sure how this sings

If there's voter apathy among gema it will be with middle class kiuks in Nairobi. Central expect turnout to be above 90% due to the tough grueling battles for governor, mca and mp. Kirinyaga might be above 95% same with kiambu,nyeri and muranga. Surprisingly jubilee as a ticket wont matter as much expect independents and a party like DP to do well. Meru turn out will be very high due to kiratu  & munya . This is replicated almost in all Gema counties which will guarantee high voter turn outs. And for the record uhuru is more loved by Gema youth like no other politician before him. The rest that's being peddled around is just wishful thinking .

[Globalcitizen12]

Hk, I though so too that 90% will turnout but from political experience the tide has turned..Waiguru won't be an impact in kirinyaga..she is better of laying low to avoid more humiliation. Apathy is widespread. Let us see what happens post February

[hk]

Hk, I though so too that 90% will turnout but from political experience the tide has turned..Waiguru won't be an impact in kirinyaga..she is better of laying low to avoid more humiliation. Apathy is widespread. Let us see what happens post February

I couldn't disagree more. I travel to kiambu,Muranga, kirinyaga and nyeri counties on a weekly bases the apathy you're talking about isn't there. And actually waiguru will be the next governor of kirinyaga, clearly you don't know anything about central or whomever is giving you info isn't in touch with what's going on. To get a pulse on what's going on listen to vernacular radio and tv stations.

[Omollo]

CONTROVERSIAL Senator Paul Njoroge defects from Jubilee to Kanu following chaotic Party elections, to vie for Nakuru governor's position

— TheStarBreaking (@TheStarBreaking) December 14, 2016

[Globalcitizen12]

Njoroge is a non factor

[Omollo]

Njoroge is a non factor

I once said that about Uhuru Kenyatta