Prediction on USA election

[Globalcitizen12]

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I would not have thought that Trump would have come this far. Although I predicted he will win GOP nominations I did not for see his self destructive nature and lack of discipline to market his own political ideas. Trump has run the worst campaign and has done a lot of damage to the grievances of poor working whites who revolted against Washington GOP establishment.

Trump ego will have him losing to Hillary. Hillary will win on Tuesday by 312 electoral votes.

I hope the future of USA politics attracts more disrupters like Bernie and a disciplined Trump.

The future of politics belongs to those that challenge the two party system

[Nefertiti]

I am the devil's advocate: it will go Brexit way with fringe voters showing up big for Trump.

[Globalcitizen12]

I am the devil's advocate: it will go Brexit way with fringe voters showing up big for Trump.

America is no Europe and this not a single issue political referenda but an national election

[Nefertiti]

We shall see. Brexit was a much more complex, multiple issue, longterm vote that went against the polls. Deplorables were the tipper of the scale.

[Empedocles]

We shall see. Brexit was a much more complex, multiple issue, longterm vote that went against the polls. Deplorables were the tipper of the scale.

Brexit didn't go against the polls.

It was simply to close to call, within the margin of error.

John Curtice, the dean of British polling, said Brexit surveys were actually pretty accurate.

"In the end, the average of the opinion polls was 51-52% for Remain, but we had some putting Leave ahead, and the Internet polls said it was a 50-50 shot from the beginning," Curtice said.

The vote turned out to be 51.9% for Leave to 48.1% for Remain.

"The polls in the UK, we can say, were 2 or 3 points out, but you wouldn't want to say more than that," Curtice added.

Trump is not polling that close to Clinton, at least in the immediate aftermath of the renewed FBI interest in her email server.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/trump-brexit-polls-wrong/

The US have been seriously refining their polls since the Dewey debacle of 1948:



Trump's losing due to the Get Out The Vote drive by the democrats.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

We shall see. Brexit was a much more complex, multiple issue, longterm vote that went against the polls. Deplorables were the tipper of the scale.

Brexit didn't go against the polls.

It was simply to close to call, within the margin of error.

John Curtice, the dean of British polling, said Brexit surveys were actually pretty accurate.

"In the end, the average of the opinion polls was 51-52% for Remain, but we had some putting Leave ahead, and the Internet polls said it was a 50-50 shot from the beginning," Curtice said.

The vote turned out to be 51.9% for Leave to 48.1% for Remain.

"The polls in the UK, we can say, were 2 or 3 points out, but you wouldn't want to say more than that," Curtice added.

Trump is not polling that close to Clinton, at least in the immediate aftermath of the renewed FBI interest in her email server.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/trump-brexit-polls-wrong/

The US have been seriously refining their polls since the Dewey debacle of 1948:



Trump's losing due to the Get Out The Vote drive by the democrats.

For some strange reason that is a narrative I have seen people spout.  The Brexit outcome was very much within the margin of error.

[Empedocles]

For some strange reason that is a narrative I have seen people spout.  The Brexit outcome was very much within the margin of error.

Or the other one "But..but...I've never been polled and don't know anybody who ever has".

That one makes me chuckle.

[Globalcitizen12]

Now the long wait is on 8 hours to playoff we will know the winner by 9 pm

[Nefertiti]

http://nairobinews.nation.co.ke/news/obamas-half-brother-flaunts-early-vote-trump/

[hk]

I am the devil's advocate: it will go Brexit way with fringe voters showing up big for Trump.

The contrarian might have been right. Or at the minimum come very very close.

[Nefertiti]

I am the devil's advocate: it will go Brexit way with fringe voters showing up big for Trump.

The contrarian might have been right. Or at the minimum come very very close.

 

[Kadame5]

Opinion polls are bunk! Thats my big take away. You cant know whose winning until every last vote is counted.

[Globalcitizen12]

Polls stated that in case he won pennslavyania he had 96% of winning. Since the same core supporters of TRUMP would be in Ohio. The lesson on this is that fear or uncertainty of the future can be an asset politically. Trump was able to capitalize on economic anxiety of most working poor and it won him the election

[Nefertiti]

Never discount the power of the deplorables aka wameza mate.

[Globalcitizen12]

What is even more shocking is that Trump ran the map of rural PA. it is amazing to see that he won every county that is rural ....wow I hope he delivers for these voters. The good thing about this is that most likely or not the status quo remains. His win is so narrow robbing him of a mandate to do big things