about Scandinavia progress

[RV Pundit]

As always you want to reduce a complex issue into a single-issue - lay all the blame on Africa's political leadership. Africa leadership is wanting (albeit improving) but it not the only thing holding it back. There are so many other things holding us back.

The only thing Mwafrika lacks is good leadership.     

[Empedocles]

As always you want to reduce a complex issue into a single-issue - lay all the blame on Africa's political leadership. Africa leadership is wanting (albeit improving) but it not the only thing holding it back. There are so many other things holding us back.

Look at it this way, we're very happy to acknowledge our "leaders" for giving us a teensy little bit of what they've stolen from us in harambees, selling our nation's future to China for a few overpriced roads and railways etc. yet we shouldn't lay blame on them their failures?

You tell us, where does the buck stop?

[RV Pundit]

I wish it was the simple. The buck actually stops everywhere including you and me as individual. Do you personally work as hard as chinese, save as much as the chinese and invest as prudently as they do! Do you want to blame that on our politicians. Even if Kidero doesn't steal any shs from 30b budget he has-- that budget is not enough to deal with Nairobi problems.

Look at it this way, we're very happy to acknowledge our "leaders" for giving us a teensy little bit of what they've stolen from us in harambees, selling our nation's future to China for a few overpriced roads and railways etc. yet we shouldn't lay blame on them their failures?

You tell us, where does the buck stop?

[veritas]

A rising China was speculated along with the threat of euros (EU). Problem is oil. China doesn't have sufficient shipping ports aside from the North Korean Peninsula where it gets 40% of their oil. North Korea is a puppet regime for China's economic rise, whereas a unified Korea benefits America and the world at large. A rising middle class, worker's union, human rights etc. recedes China's economic progress to no different to a crumbling EU. 80% of the world raw materials come from Africa, crude oil Saudi Arabia/Caspian sea. Kenya even more promising:

Kenya's oil deposits can run her for 300 years
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JUST HOW MUCH oil deposits could there be in Kenya ?

According to an analysis by the prospecting companies- Tullow oil and Africa oil of Canada- perhaps enough to run the country for 300 years. Or enough to run the US for 18 months. Bloomberg reported that the two oil drillers, who first discovered oil in Kenya's rift valley basin only last year, now say the 450 KM long basin could hold 10 billion barrels- enough to run Kenya for 300 years!

Consequently, the oil drillers are planning to drill 11 test wells in Kenya this year. And remember they are also drilling wells in Ethiopia. Like Kenya, Ethiopia was deemed a barren land as far oil production is concerned. However, now that outlook is changing with discovery of oil in Kenya's rift valley.

http://www.georgewachiuri.com/investment-advice/142-kenya-s-oil-deposits-can-run-her-for-300-years

As it gets closer to this, expect more violence generated by the incumbent so China and such and such can privately profit Kenya's oil.

In 50 years I think East Asia (the Orient) will be back to the top as they were in the past before tumbling. US & Europe (the West) have had a short stay at the top of the world, they are on the downward trend now. Africans & Arabs (the Middle world) are nearing proper economic development for the first time.

It's the civilization spiral of our world. The Chinese committed undocumented atrocities in their previous reign. The US had slavery and is presently looking inwards to rejuvenate. Europe colonized us but presently going inwards (EU unravel, Brexit). One hopes Africa and Arabia will rise to the occasion and resist fresh colonization.

Neocolonialism: Oil wars in ME (US); human capital theft (US green cards); capital flight (US/UK tax, loot havens); mineral & material scraping (Chinese).

[Nefertiti]

Unlike science and math God is subjective. Even relativity makes some science subjective. Kenya after years of error-prone toil has achieved lower middle income at 50 years. The other day on a thread here I calculated Africa at 5% GDP growth will be at 30T US$, about 15K per capita, middle income by 2050. That is Mexico or China level today 30 years from now. Even then MOON Ki and you got into a catfight over "economic indicators" and "population dividend" and ayes and nays.

Progress is relative -- we are developing at a slow pace. I am realistic not self-pitying.

Wallow in your own self-pity. There is nothing wrong with Africans. There is certainly no GOD. Africans are doing incredibly well. Sub-sahara African latest growth that you call "commodity fueled" is not true. Ethiopia and many of growing economies including Kenya don't sell an ounce of crude or minerals. Sub-sahara African were isolated from the advancement in the rest of the world by vastness of it's land and has just about started integrating to the world economy. Africa is doing fine. Not only economically. But politically and socially too -there is lot of advancement.

If you cannot see Africa rise; then you're blind. That doesn't mean Africa will suddenly transform into a manufacturing power.

I am sure Pundit would say something about UN SDGs or Africa Vision 2063 as planning. It is also hope. I read about the robber barons that built the US infrastructure and industry - Henry Ford, Andrew Canergie, Rockefeller, etc and wow at their thrift. Some have termed as "positive terrorism" their severe mental fiat and sheer scale. Such is what built the west. If you check the chronology of inventions you will see Europeans, Americans and non-Africans only.

To quote a certain politician, kwani sisi tulitukana Mungu?

[Nefertiti]

I am sure Pundit would say something about UN SDGs or Africa Vision 2063 as planning. It is also hope. I read about the robber barons that built the US infrastructure and industry - Henry Ford, Andrew Canergie, Rockefeller, etc and wow at their thrift. Some have termed as "positive terrorism" their severe mental fiat and sheer scale. Such is what built the west. If you check the chronology of inventions you will see Europeans, Americans and non-Africans only.

To quote a certain politician, kwani sisi tulitukana Mungu?

Oof, that's cold.

For starters:

Top 10 Inventions by African-Americans

Famous Black Inventors

THE BLACK INVENTOR ONLINE MUSEUM

Good stuff. Nothing Earth- shattering except perhaps Ben Montgomery but good stuff. Notably noone from continental Africa proper.

[Empedocles]

Good stuff. Nothing Earth- shattering except perhaps Ben Montgomery but good stuff. Notably noone from continental Africa proper.

True about nothing coming from Africa proper. Too busy trying to basically survive.

But on the other, I'd reckon 99% of most inventions are not earth shattering.

It's the little steps which count.

[MOON Ki]

As always you want to reduce a complex issue into a single-issue - lay all the blame on Africa's political leadership. Africa leadership is wanting (albeit improving) but it not the only thing holding it back. There are so many other things holding us back.

You do realize that "complex issue" is singular, don't you?   

Look, can list any number of "many other things holding us back".    Once you are done with that, ask these questions:    What can be done about them?   What is being done about them?    If you then reflect on those, you will end up at leadership.

[Nefertiti]

As always you want to reduce a complex issue into a single-issue - lay all the blame on Africa's political leadership. Africa leadership is wanting (albeit improving) but it not the only thing holding it back. There are so many other things holding us back.

You do realize that "complex issue" is singular, don't you?   

Look, can list any number of "many other things holding us back".    Once you are done with that, ask these questions:    What can be done about them?   What is being done about them?    If you then reflect on those, you will end up at leadership.

We are doing UN SDGs and Vision 2063. That's what. The powerpoints are great; the execution is insufferably subpar since independence. My reflection reveals the classic leadership as scarce bearer of full blemish. It has been discussed here that a country reflects the average citizen. If Wanjiku and Khadija are smart, educated and productive with high integrity and discipline then you get a new Canaan in short order. Sadly this is hardly the case in Kenya and most of Africa.

The literacy level in Kenya is 90%

Productivity is at 22%. We need 40% to score middle income. Japan has 76%

Corruption... this monster that chews any +ve blossom is ignored by all even UN. We are at the wrong end of the index

We need more than leadership by citizen and expert participation:

Literacy - this is being collectively handled for the better with mandatory, free basic education. Obviously there is massive room for improvement e.g. mandatory, free tertiary education (dip, bachelors in imperative economic areas)

Productivity - besides education, discipline and integrity should be instilled, we are doing poorly here. Mandatory 6 months NYS enrollment has been mumbled as part of the solution. Meritocracy too comes up

Corruption - we agreed a C- is generous for this Kenyan government and mwananchi. Strong institutions are suggested here. Again, shared duty. You note yourself how huge anti-IEBC mobs eat teargas yet fail to show up for NYS rally

These and other success factors are a collective responsibility. Not leaders only. Hard work and discipline for instance are what I call "energy and efficiency" we lack badly at individual level. Hanging your coat at your office desk to go run personal errands half the day... 

These 3 items, which are a shared responsibility, will result in hard and soft benefits. The state will build infrastructure; FDIs will increase. Incomes and revenues will rise. State will invest some more in SGR, LAPSETT, regional integration, etc...

All this is going on albeit at a rate that depresses you. Heck, it does a number on me too sometimes: you see me proposing importing wazungu to run key institutions. You are not alone. Look deeper. Pundit's indicators are a place to consider.


http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/mobile/article/2000103729/how-low-labour-productivity-pricks-kenya-s-growth-bubble

http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/12/30-kenya-economy-kimenyi

[MOON Ki]

Two quick examples of where I see leadership as relevant in all that:

Corruption ... Again, shared duty. You note yourself how huge anti-IEBC mobs eat teargas yet fail to show up for NYS rally

The people showing up to eat teargas do not just wake up and decide to go at it; they do so because they have listened to their "leaders", who could similarly get them worked up about corruption scandals but do not. 

Corruption thrives in Kenya because the "leaders" lead at it, and the little people below simply follow; and the vice can be eliminated only in a top-down manner.    A country has serious problems when  the president is the largest beneficiary of theft, the deputy president is working hard to catch up and is "succeeding", and anyone else who (because of position) can get into the public's wallet in big way is busy at it.   

Productivity - besides education, discipline and integrity should be instilled, we are doing poorly here.

The instilling has to be done by somebody.   At whatever level that somebody will be the person in charge.   Work your way up the levels, and you end up with national leadership.    And evidence of how it works at a national level can be found in how Lee Kwan Yew sorted out Singapore.   On the other hand, Kenya is a country in which a lack of discipline and integrity is evident at the highest levels, and its hard to see wananchi deciding that they should be different.

These and other success factors are a collective responsibility. Not leaders only.

True, and I did not intend to suggest otherwise.    My view is something like this: Think of oxen attached to a plough, the task being to till a large piece of land.  Man and beast have to work together.   The person handling the plough cannot reasonably do the job alone---the animals have to do their bit---but he has the greatest responsibility in how the job gets done.  He must guide and, if necessary, whip the animals.

Heck, it does a number on me too sometimes: you see me proposing importing wazungu to run key institutions.

Which is a statement on the leadership of those institutions (which are critical in properly running the country).   And a sad one too after 50+ years of "independent and equal and capable of running our own affairs".     

A large part of the problem there is that national "leaders" have devised a system in which (a) tribe and politics and eating, rather than merit and performance, plays a large role in who gets into quite a few such positions, and (b) the institutions are to be run in a manner than most benefits the, rather than the citizens, and they will work to undermine anyone who doesn't help their interests.   

[RV Pundit]

Amazing ignorance. Corruption and poor leadership is part of being poor. Countries did not become rich by being non-corrupt and having great leaders. They became rich over time by improving on leadership and having less & less corruption as they become richer and richer. You don't become rich by being rich. You actually work your way out of poverty and it's manifestation (including poor leadership, poor productivity, lack of worth ethics, corruption, crime, slums, garbage and all the evils associated with poverty).So rather than wasting time daily listing what we know...elevate the debate into trends...compared to 1 or 5 or 10 or 20 yrs ago...are we become less or more corrupt..do we have better or worse leadership...is our economy growing or not..is our level of education increasing or not...do we have reliable data to measure progress?

Forget about absolutes...of the either you are corrupt or not...every country has some level of corruption.

[MOON Ki]

Amazing ignorance. Corruption and poor leadership is part of being poor.

Amazing ignorance?   We are actually in agreement!    Kenyans and many other Africans will continue to languish in poverty for as long as they accept poor leadership that thrives on corruption (and mindless mayhem).   What else do they expect to get from corruption+poor-leadership? 

Question: can good/great leaders tackle the numerous effects of the corruption monster etc.?  Let's do some maths: 

A+B = C

What should you do if you want to reduce C?

poor leadership, poor productivity, lack of worth ethics, corruption, crime, slums, garbage and all the evils associated with poverty

Absolutely solid points!    And on these points the government of Kenya is doing exactly what?

[RV Pundit]

Gok has made tremendous progress in all those areas. The economy in the last 10yrs has grown nearly 5 times. From 15BUSD to nearly 70B now..and if we grow at same pace in the next 10yrs..2025...we will be 350USD economy..about the size of South Africa. Sub-sahara Africa has been fastest growing region for a generation now...so cut them some slack. US for example has probably stagnated the last 10yrs in the same 15-17trillion USD gdp...while Africa's GDP has grown 10 tenfold in 10yrs. There is progress in almost any indicator of development including leadership and corruption.You cannot divorce poor leadership or corruption from poverty. They are correlated. What countries need to try to do is to slowly growl out of the holes they find themselves. Leadership & governance is improving across all the board. I can tell you an MCA now is better than MCA of 90s. The same with Mps. Majority are graduates with lots of public or civil or private sector experience. The same with PORK and DPORK - way better than Moi - these guys can actually sit down and argue out Obama. That is improvement on leadership. Corruption of 90 type...which was looting spree..has disappeared. We have more transparency and accountability. Money that get stollen is now being kept internally.

Amazing ignorance. Corruption and poor leadership is part of being poor.

Amazing ignorance?   We are actually in agreement!    Kenyans and many other Africans will continue to languish in poverty for as long as they accept poor leadership that thrives on corruption (and mindless mayhem).   What else do they expect to get from corruption+poor-leadership? 

Question: can good/great leaders tackle the numerous effects of the corruption monster etc.?  Let's do some maths: 

A+B = C

What should you do if you want to reduce C?

poor leadership, poor productivity, lack of worth ethics, corruption, crime, slums, garbage and all the evils associated with poverty

Absolutely solid points!    And on these points the government of Kenya is doing exactly what?

[MOON Ki]

Gok has made tremendous progress in all those areas. The economy in the last 10yrs has grown nearly 5 times.  From 15BUSD to nearly 70B now..

First, rebasing is not actual growth.   It is just counting a bit better.    So you need to rework that story.   Second, and skipping past whether the benefits of growth are being enjoyed by all, the question was not about mere economic growth; the "areas" were (your own list):

poor leadership, poor productivity, lack of worth ethics, corruption, crime, slums, garbage

Want to have a go at those?

Sub-sahara Africa has been fastest growing region for a generation now...so cut them some slack. US for example has probably stagnated the last 10yrs in the same 15-17trillion USD gdp

If a guy with 10 shillings increases his income to 20 shillings, that's 100% growth.    Much bigger % growth than the guy with 1 million shillings who manages to add 100,000 shillings.   But who has more money and who has added more money?    At the bottom, the only way is up; and at the top all that is required is "maintenance".   So  "looky, looky; we are growing, and they are not!"   needs to be moderated.   

You cannot divorce poor leadership or corruption from poverty. They are correlated.

Yes.   A look at the countries that lead Africa in corruption (Kenya, Nigeria, etc.) shows that that they are the poorest on the continent. Right?  When I look at  the people  at the top who are busy robbing the public in Kenya, I can see that it is poverty that drives them.    But they are winning!    Jomo fought poverty and won, so Jnr doesn't have to steal.   Arap Mashamba too seems to be doing well in his fight against poverty, as are many others up there.         

I can tell you an MCA now is better than MCA of 90s. The same with Mps. Majority are graduates ....

That is better leadership?   And the corruption and eating even at those levels?     They went to school, so it necessarily follows that they are lesser thieves?   An interesting angle.

We have more transparency and accountability.

These days we have a better idea of the theft.  Is that the transparency?  And which of the big thieves has been held accountable?     

Money that get stollen is now being kept internally.

I'm sure that makes many Kenyans feel better about the theft.    But how much money is it, and where exactly is it?   Can you provide some figures and sources to support that "cheerful" message?

[RV Pundit]

The usual nonsensical response I've come to expect from you. The economy has grown on average at 5-6% - and the rebasing for kenya was not that "dramatic" - the base year I think was 2006 - and it was moved to 2009 - or something close to it - all economic indicators are up - it not just the GDP - pick any and Kenya (and most of Sub-sahara) Africa is way better (some pretty astounding) than it was 10 yrs ago - maybe you should visit Africa and see it live or look for pictures of thriving cities & villages.  You clearly don't understand what leadership/governance is, what corruption is, and what economy is. They may see obvious to you but you've pedestrain views. If having educated person a leader is not improved leadership - then I don't know what leadership is - maybe it not the ability to make better decision - a std 8 graduate like Moi even with the best intention is going to make pretty bad decision overally - these are stuff that have been studied and concluded long time ago - both at family/individual/business/country level. That is why people insist of having "minimum" education standards. The issue of corruption is best left aside - you have a problem dealing with the obvious - how about the complex!

Anyway I don't have time to waste with someone of your calibre.

Gok has made tremendous progress in all those areas. The economy in the last 10yrs has grown nearly 5 times.  From 15BUSD to nearly 70B now..

First, rebasing is not actual growth.   It is just counting a bit better.    So you need to rework that story.   Second, and skipping past whether the benefits of growth are being enjoyed by all, the question was not about mere economic growth; the "areas" were (your own list):

poor leadership, poor productivity, lack of worth ethics, corruption, crime, slums, garbage

Want to have a go at those?

Sub-sahara Africa has been fastest growing region for a generation now...so cut them some slack. US for example has probably stagnated the last 10yrs in the same 15-17trillion USD gdp

If a guy with 10 shillings increases his income to 20 shillings, that's 100% growth.    Much bigger % growth than the guy with 1 million shillings who manages to add 100,000 shillings.   But who has more money and who has added more money?    At the bottom, the only way is up; and at the top all that is required is "maintenance".   So  "looky, looky; we are growing, and they are not!"   needs to be moderated.   

You cannot divorce poor leadership or corruption from poverty. They are correlated.

Yes.   A look at the countries that lead Africa in corruption (Kenya, Nigeria, etc.) shows that that they are the poorest on the continent. Right?  When I look at  the people  at the top who are busy robbing the public in Kenya, I can see that it is poverty that drives them.    But they are winning!    Jomo fought poverty and won, so Jnr doesn't have to steal.   Arap Mashamba too seems to be doing well in his fight against poverty, as are many others up there.         

I can tell you an MCA now is better than MCA of 90s. The same with Mps. Majority are graduates ....

That is better leadership?   And the corruption and eating even at those levels?     They went to school, so it necessarily follows that they are lesser thieves?   An interesting angle.

We have more transparency and accountability.

These days we have a better idea of the theft.  Is that the transparency?  And which of the big thieves has been held accountable?     

Money that get stollen is now being kept internally.

I'm sure that makes many Kenyans feel better about the theft.    But how much money is it, and where exactly is it?   Can you provide some figures and sources to support that "cheerful" message?

[MOON Ki]

The usual nonsensical response I've come to expect from you.  The economy has grown on average at 5-6% - and the rebasing for kenya was not that "dramatic" - the base year I think was 2006 - and it was moved to 2009 - or something close to it - all economic indicators are up - it not just the GDP -

One more time:   Yes, yes, yes.   I know all that.   What I specifically wanted you to comment on was your own list:

poor leadership, poor productivity, lack of worth ethics, corruption, crime, slums, garbage

You add that:

If having educated person a leader is not improved leadership - then I don't know what leadership is -

I think I can see why Kenya is in so much trouble.     No, no, no;  having more people who have gone to school does not necessarily mean the leadership is better.     On the contrary, those who have gone to school will (a) be in positions where they can steal more, and (b) be cleverer in their theft, e.g. adding 0s in a "theft  proof" computer systems.

If you wish to argue that better education has led to less corruption in Kenya, then let's have an explicit argument, with supporting evidence.    But I think that's going to be tricky: For example, right at the top we have Arap Mashamba, whose ambitions in education seem to be in tandem with his grabbing. And others at the top are not stealing big-time because their education ended in Std. 6.   

The usual nonsensical response I've come to expect from you.
...
Anyway I don't have time to waste with someone of your calibre.

That's not nice.   You should read this book:

[RV Pundit]

You think the economy would grow if leadership wasn't getting better across board and if there was runaway corruption? The economy is growing precisely because we have better leadership and less corruption. That doesn't mean we are anywhere near where we need to be...but at least we are better than South Sudan for example. It not like Kenya hit some SportPesa jackpot the last 10yrs that saw it economy rise from 15b to nearly 70B -no! it coz leadership, corruption,crime, work ethics, slums and name them ....are improving.

The usual nonsensical response I've come to expect from you.  The economy has grown on average at 5-6% - and the rebasing for kenya was not that "dramatic" - the base year I think was 2006 - and it was moved to 2009 - or something close to it - all economic indicators are up - it not just the GDP -

One more time:   Yes, yes, yes.   I know all that.   What I specifically wanted you to comment on was your own list:

poor leadership, poor productivity, lack of worth ethics, corruption, crime, slums, garbage

You add that:

If having educated person a leader is not improved leadership - then I don't know what leadership is -

I think I can see why Kenya is in so much trouble.     No, no, no;  having more people who have gone to school does not necessarily mean the leadership is better.     On the contrary, those who have gone to school will (a) be in positions where they can steal more, and (b) be cleverer in their theft, e.g. adding 0s in a "theft  proof" computer systems.

If you wish to argue that better education has led to less corruption in Kenya, then let's have an explicit argument, with supporting evidence.    But I think that's going to be tricky: For example, right at the top we have Arap Mashamba, whose ambitions in education seem to be in tandem with his grabbing. And others at the top are not stealing big-time because their education ended in Std. 6.   

The usual nonsensical response I've come to expect from you.
...
Anyway I don't have time to waste with someone of your calibre.

That's not nice.   You should read this book: