Only Ruto and his diehard supporters believe Kikuyus will vote for him.
I have been told that he is using the "Moi script". How can the Moi script be relevant unless you re-introduce one-party politics. In 1979 and 1980 Kikuyus who didn't want Moi were in a straight jacket. They could not form another party and the only way to get power was through a coup which they planned for 1982 before Ochuka upstaged them.
As for Gideon, he is going nowhere. He lacks any coherent strategy and like Mudavadi believes the backroom deals made in smoky rooms. He seriously thinks he will be supported by Uhuru for 2022. There you are a Tale of two Kalenjins being dodged by Kikuyus.
As for Ruto getting votes in Western, he can start by stopping the insults. Luhyas voted for Moi for years and avoided Jaramogi. However when Moi forced Uhuru on them, they opted to listen to Raila and Wamalwa. They simply refused to listen to Moi.
Ruto is busy insulting Luhyas in public and in private. Come 2022 and whoever Ruto will be running away from will also find the map of Luhyaland. Don't forget the the same way he spited Luos, we can also enter an alliance with Kikuyus to screw him
Ruto has almost a stranglehold going by 2010 and 2013. Despite nusu mkate. Gideon only wins if he does not side with Cord for top seat. Obviously his Amani coalition with Mudavadi is toast.
Post-2017 Ruto will be Moi in RV because it will be "spoiling for our man". Unless Gema pull a fast one on him.