Mutahi Ngunyi throws spanner in the works

[RV Pundit]

Ruto would have ended up 3rd in 2013. I doubt 10yrs later after 2013 as DP he will still end up 3rd. He certainly end up first or second. Whether anyone can meet the requirement in first round will depend on how the big 5 tribes align themselves.

As for peter kenneth...that is rather long shot . Where you get this idea that he is chosen gema successor of Uhuru is of course well known. From lalaland.

I don't see how Uhuru will mess up his legacy by backing anybody except Ruto. Some few in GEMA may revolt but the majority will follow Uhuru. Ruto will fill the gaps by appealing to small tribes. Ruto doesn't carry kikuyu hostility in places like coast or western...so he'll do better than Uhuru in many areas...except in Gusii & Kamba land.

Demographically Kikuyu pop in 2022 will not be any different from Kalenjin or Luhyaland. The gap in 2009 was 1.5m. Now it should be less than 1m and so in 2022..Ruto can choose btw a pure breed Kikuyu VP or even Meru VP.

Ruto continues to march on....as Raila continues to tank. Those are just stuborn facts.

Whats Ruto's plan B,incase okuyus dont keep their promise????Fact is that if he rans without okuyu votes then he probably will end up no 3 behind Peter Kenneth and Raila Odinga.

[Pajero]

Ruto cannot get votes outside kalenjin Rift,take that to nearest equity.maximum he can get is 1.5 from Nandi,Kericho,Bomet,UG and Baringo counties heavily dominated by Kalenjins.I dont know where you get the notion that Ruto can emerge no 1 or even 2,maybe if he is competing alone.

[RV Pundit]

That is based on what? More wishful thinking. URP which is Ruto primary party came third with impressive 78Mps. Uhuru's TNA had 85mps or so. Raila's ODM had 110 Mps. Kalonzo the fourth guy came distant third with 25mps. The same scenarios is replicated in senate and governor. URP controls more than 10 counties.. So what exactly make you think that Ruto has no vote outside kalenjin...when Ruto's URP won votes in NEP (where Ruto URP won 90% of all seats),Coast, Western, Maasai, Turkana, Borana, Samburu and name it.

And all this Ruto did while he was essentially running as DP and had ICC swords over his head...meaning he suspended his campaign and worked on Uhurus. Now Ruto is DP, has 50% of gov patronage and is busy amassing a resources.....another 5yrs..and he'll be unbeatable.

Right now Ruto is working hard to build bridges in places outside Nyanza..which is waste of time..and therefore it expected Luos will think Ruto is unloved everywhere else. It only in Luo Nyanza where Ruto "hatred" is right now high.

Ruto core support will remain Kalenjin. The next support base will come from pastoralist esp Matusa+iteso+somalis. Coast is a bit complicated for now but I think Ruto can easily win that over. That should take Ruto easily to 25%-30%. Leaving him looking for one guy from big tribe who will bring 20% to get 50%. That guy has to be either GEMA or a united Luhya (leader)--if one get ever there.

Ruto cannot get votes outside kalenjin Rift,take that to nearest equity.maximum he can get is 1.5 from Nandi,Kericho,Bomet,UG and Baringo counties heavily dominated by Kalenjins.I dont know where you get the notion that Ruto can emerge no 1 or even 2,maybe if he is competing alone.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

The silence in kikuyu land over Kabogos remarks should worry some people,only 4 mps from Kiambu who are known Kabogos nemesis have come out to openly condemn him.

Kabogo is sharing a badly kept secret.

[RV Pundit]

Hehehe Pajero, actually ODM just has elected 96Mps compared to 75Mps Ruto got   here I was thinking Raila managed 110

If we were to use MPs as measure of party strength and that is pretty solid indicator then
Raila had 27% --at his apex when he enjoyed half mkate patronage and appeared "unassailable".
Uhuru had 25%
Ruto had 21%
Kalonzo as always had 7.5%

If we use the senators ..elected ...Raila has 10 (babu kweli)...Ruto has 9...Uhuru leads with 11.

If we use the governors elected...Uhuru come third with 8...Ruto has 10..and Raila has 16 (hapo amejaribu).

Keep dreaming on and on....and crying IEBC has stolen.

[Pajero]

Pundito,

You actually affirm my argument that Ruto is actually a nobody outside the kalenjin Rift.If you take a close look at the number of mps elect on URP ticket its about 62.Out of the 62, 46 come from his native Rift valley block.We can thus conclude that Rutos URP party is 80% kalenjins.(please prove me wrong).He has other 11 mps from NE,2 from Meru & Teso & 2 from coast.If mps then represent votes,then the 11 mps in NE cannot even give him 50,000 votes coz NE does no have tyranny.He cant count on the teso,meru & coast mps to give him votes,ie in teso he got the mps but the presidential votes went to Raila.

Now,compare URP and ODM.Railas ODM has 78 elected mps,out of this, only 22 are from his luo Nyanza base,which is approximately about 28%.what this implies is that Railas support base is higher than his luo nation base as opposed to Ruto who is more of a TRIBAL KING.Where Ruto is today is where Raila was in 1997 with his NDP.

Ruto is just hiding behind Uhurus & by extension kikuyus shadow but the moment he will be left to stand on his own which is highly likely in 2022,he will be exposed and his true numbers and political position will come out.By my own assesment in 2022 Ruto will just manage a paltry 10-15% of votes cast.

I rest my case.

[RV Pundit]

As always it hard to argue with someone who invent facts. What matters is not the colour of the cat but whether he kills the rat or not. Ruto has 78Mps. Uhuru had 85. Raila has 96Mps. The difference is mere 7 & 18mps. Ruto was not running for PORK and has never run for PORK. Ruto was not running as incumbent PM with a strong party like ODM.Everyone starts from somewhere. Raila when he ran in 1997 got how many votes outside Luo Nyanza. Not much. Then he joined KANU and took away some of KANU key constitutuencies esp in Coast & Parastal communities.

Ruto led the No campaign to win more than 30% of the national vote.Ruto party when it initially ran got 78Mps. That is very impressive. It also very impressive considering getting Kalenjin united is not easy thing. Ruto party managed to win votes all over.

10yrs from 2013...one can only imagine what Ruto party then will win...but definitely what is happening now....Ruto is slowly but surely taking back the KANU const of 90s from ODM....and Raila pretty much has nothing to offer anybody outside Luo Nyanza...which is why IEBC demos are now Kibera and Luo Nyanza affair.

Pundito,

You actually affirm my argument that Ruto is actually a nobody outside the kalenjin Rift.If you take a close look at the number of mps elect on URP ticket its about 62.Out of the 62, 46 come from his native Rift valley block.We can thus conclude that Rutos URP party is 80% kalenjins.(please prove me wrong).He has other 11 mps from NE,2 from Meru & Teso & 2 from coast.If mps then represent votes,then the 11 mps in NE cannot even give him 50,000 votes coz NE does no have tyranny.He cant count on the teso,meru & coast mps to give him votes,ie in teso he got the mps but the presidential votes went to Raila.

Now,compare URP and ODM.Railas ODM has 78 elected mps,out of this, only 22 are from his luo Nyanza base,which is approximately about 28%.what this implies is that Railas support base is higher than his luo nation base as opposed to Ruto who is more of a TRIBAL KING.Where Ruto is today is where Raila was in 1997 with his NDP.

Ruto is just hiding behind Uhurus & by extension kikuyus shadow but the moment he will be left to stand on his own which is highly likely in 2022,he will be exposed and his true numbers and political position will come out.By my own assesment in 2022 Ruto will just manage a paltry 10-15% of votes cast.

I rest my case.

[MOON Ki]

As always it hard to argue with someone who invent facts.

I found this one funny.   Very, very funny.

[RV Pundit]

It even harder to debate someone who nitpick facts. For example in this thread; nobody makes a meal about the accuracy of the figures (it could be urp had 75 or 78 or 68) but you get the general arguments here; if we start nitpicking around facts; spawn threads with several links; we would never have a meaningful online debate. We would need to write thesis size posts with references.

I found this one funny.   Very, very funny.