Mutahi Ngunyi throws spanner in the works

[Pajero]

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[Empedocles]

Thanks for this.

I've always stated that the chances of Ruto becoming president with the support of Central is never gonna happen for two reasons:

1. Ruto isn't pedigree
2. 2008 PEV

[MOON Ki]

Did Ngunyi really say that?   It looks made-up.   

[RV Pundit]

Is Ngunyi Uhuru. Uhuru is the guy who will make or break Ruto bid for presidency. As long as Uhuru want Ruto to be pork...he can do it anytime. He can for example quit some few months to election and have Ruto become PORK. He has already made Ruto Pork for 3 days when he attended ICC.

Ruto best bet is to stick with Uhuru. Gema as people cannot make you pork. They never made Uhuru even an MP before Moi gave him a lift. They never made Kibaki pork...it Raila's tosha which made him PORK when Kikuyus had basically abandoned him for Uhuru...after hated Moi had turned 360 and endorsed Uhuru.

Bottom-line...you need to understand the politics of kenya more deeply. The tribal politics controlled by tribal lords. Luos may dislike kikuyus but if Raila turn up and says Karua tosha....99% of Luos will vote there. The same can be said of major tribes.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Did Ngunyi really say that?   It looks made-up.   

If he did, he said nothing newsworthy.  Perhaps the details.  But overall, nothing new.  Ruto is not going to excite GEMA, but even more likely, he is not going to get their vote.  Kamwana is on record himself, as being able to guarantee only his family, and I am assuming the nuclear version.

While there are valid questions like, where do they go?, it can be argued convincingly, we know where they won't go.

[RV Pundit]

This is flawed argument. It akin to argument Raila and his advisor banked on. That kalenjin will not vote for a Kikuyu just few years after killing and displacing a half million of them. That somehow Kikuyu and Kalenjin were oil and water. We now know that Kalenjin not only voted for Uhuru but are already decided on 2017.

This is a kin to dilemma ICC found themselves in...all over sudden the tables were turned on them.  Folks including victims and witnesses decided to "move on" leaving the ICC holding an empty bag.

You need to understand our tribal politics more deeply. GEMA as people are not sophisticated to go rogue on their leaders. Neither are Luos or Kambas or Kalenjin. These communities are "hostages" to political kingpins.  Luhyas and other tribes do not have such strong leaders....so they are more "free" to sort of choose ABC.If GEMA were sophisticated Martha Karua or Peter Kenneth would not have lost even in their own polling station.

And then consider come 2022...Kalenjin and Luhya will most likely be equal to Kikuyu vote...kikuyu pop has dropped from 22% to 20% to 17.5% in 99..and now it should be below 17%...while Luhya and Kalenjin are 14%.

If he did, he said nothing newsworthy.  Perhaps the details.  But overall, nothing new.  Ruto is not going to excite GEMA, but even more likely, he is not going to get their vote.  Kamwana is on record himself, as being able to guarantee only his family, and I am assuming the nuclear version.

While there are valid questions like, where do they go?, it can be argued convincingly, we know where they won't go.

[Pajero]

Interesting times coming ahead

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

This is flawed argument. It akin to argument Raila and his advisor banked on. That kalenjin will not vote for a Kikuyu just few years after killing and displacing a half million of them. That somehow Kikuyu and Kalenjin were oil and water. We now know that Kalenjin not only voted for Uhuru but are already decided on 2017.

This is a kin to dilemma ICC found themselves in...all over sudden the tables were turned on them.  Folks including victims and witnesses decided to "move on" leaving the ICC holding an empty bag.

You need to understand our tribal politics more deeply. GEMA as people are not sophisticated to go rogue on their leaders. Neither are Luos or Kambas or Kalenjin. These communities are "hostages" to political kingpins.  Luhyas and other tribes do not have such strong leaders....so they are more "free" to sort of choose ABC.If GEMA were sophisticated Martha Karua or Peter Kenneth would not have lost even in their own polling station.

And then consider come 2022...Kalenjin and Luhya will most likely be equal to Kikuyu vote...kikuyu pop has dropped from 22% to 20% to 17.5% in 99..and now it should be below 17%...while Luhya and Kalenjin are 14%.

If he did, he said nothing newsworthy.  Perhaps the details.  But overall, nothing new.  Ruto is not going to excite GEMA, but even more likely, he is not going to get their vote.  Kamwana is on record himself, as being able to guarantee only his family, and I am assuming the nuclear version.

While there are valid questions like, where do they go?, it can be argued convincingly, we know where they won't go.

It will be interesting to see if GEMA votes out of character. 

In 2002, GEMA were backing kamwana, even though his chances looked slim.  As soon as Raila toshad Kibaki, they shifted en masse to Kibaki.  Granted in 02 there was no leader they were hostage to.  But the same will be the case in 2022; a lameduck won't have that much sway on GEMA.  Ruto has peaked I think.

[yulemsee]

Focussing on a single candidate alone in an election and trying to forecast is wrong, you must compare Ruto with a likely opponent. Is it Raila, Kalonzo, Weta, Mudavadi, Joho, Kenneth. Pick Ruto's opponent in 2022 and I will tell you who Kikuyus will vote for

[veritas]

Ruto isn't popular anymore, he isn't even a worthy alliance for Cord. He betrayed Cord in the 11th hour just like Kalonzo did with Kibaki's reelection, just like Kibaki betrayed the NARC agreement of a one term presidency with Raila. This is just the GEMA status quo re-enacted over and over again spiralling Kenya into a failed state probably within a decade under Uhuru's steal as much as you want policies. Ruto's chance at the presidency is if Uhuru is assassinated.

[Reticent Solipsist]

Did Ngunyi really say that?   It looks made-up.   

If he did, he said nothing newsworthy.  Perhaps the details.  But overall, nothing new.  Ruto is not going to excite GEMA, but even more likely, he is not going to get their vote.  Kamwana is on record himself, as being able to guarantee only his family, and I am assuming the nuclear version.

While there are valid questions like, where do they go?, it can be argued convincingly, we know where they won't go.

Windy City,

You nailed it perfectly. In stealing the 2007 election in the brazen manner they - Kibaki-Uhuru axis - did the target was as much Raila as it was Ruto.

I have no doubt in my mind that the Uhuru-Ruto axis will win reelection in 2017, and then enter the real night of long- knives. Say sometime in 2019 or 2020 with Uhuru's assent Ruto will be hit so hard from all directions that he won't know where to hide.

[Reticent Solipsist]

Did Ngunyi really say that?   It looks made-up.

MOON Ki,

If this was designed to be a hatchet job....it's very poorly done. Evidently the CORD think-tank seems to tank more than it thinks. There's absolutely no way that Ngunyi would say this before the 2017 elections. However, after Uhuru wins in 2017 then they'll gleefully eviscerate Ruto.

[Pajero]

Negotiations will determine who Mt Kenya voters will support for the presidency in 2022, Kiambu Governor William Kabogo has said. In a thinly-veiled statement that may be seen as directed at Deputy President William Ruto, Mr Kabogo said the region would have to deliberate on who to support for the country's top seat come 2022. Kabogo said the region's support would not be automatic or guaranteed for any individual, adding that the region would not be compelled to support any preferred candidate to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta. Speaking at Muiri farm in Juja, the county boss said the region had many votes and would have to chart its own political destiny once Uhuru was through with his constitutional two five-year terms. "Even if we promised someone a seat, we will have to sit down and talk. We will not just give away the seat like that. If you think because we agreed it will go like that... We have the votes and therefore have to be respected," said Kabogo. The governor said people should stop thinking that just because there was an agreement things would go as agreed. READ MORE Jubilee MPs in final push for Uhuruto's re-election vehicle There was no deal on IEBC at State House, says DP William Ruto JAP wins Lelmokwo/Ngechek by elections in a tough tussle with Kanu Kabogo's sentiments contradicted the President who during his tour of central Kenya in April asked voters in his Mt Kenya stronghold to support his deputy in the 2022 presidential election. Speaking in Kiambu town during the tour, Uhuru was eager to dispel fears that voters in the region would not back his deputy's bid after his second term expires. In an apparent move to rally the region behind his deputy, Uhuru made it clear that he intended to hand over the leadership baton to Ruto. "This is my brother who I have worked with for the sake of unity and development for all Kenyans. It is a journey that we started together and will finish together so that Kenyans can live in peace," the President said. "I have worked with this young man (Ruto) and I can assure you, my people, that he is capable of leading this country and carrying on the Jubilee development agenda." Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichungw'a, a fierce Kabogo critic, claimed the governor had little say in deciding who the region would support. Ngewa MCA Karungo wa Thangw'a urged Mt Kenya voters to ignore Kabogo's comments and continue supporting the DP. Imenti South MP Kathuri Murungi said the region would support Ruto.
Read more at: http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000204378/mt-kenya-support-not-guaranteed-ruto-told

[RV Pundit]

2022 is so many years. Worry about 2017.

Negotiations will determine who Mt Kenya voters will support for the presidency in 2022, Kiambu Governor William Kabogo has said. In a thinly-veiled statement that may be seen as directed at Deputy President William Ruto, Mr Kabogo said the region would have to deliberate on who to support for the country's top seat come 2022. Kabogo said the region's support would not be automatic or guaranteed for any individual, adding that the region would not be compelled to support any preferred candidate to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta. Speaking at Muiri farm in Juja, the county boss said the region had many votes and would have to chart its own political destiny once Uhuru was through with his constitutional two five-year terms. "Even if we promised someone a seat, we will have to sit down and talk. We will not just give away the seat like that. If you think because we agreed it will go like that... We have the votes and therefore have to be respected," said Kabogo. The governor said people should stop thinking that just because there was an agreement things would go as agreed. READ MORE Jubilee MPs in final push for Uhuruto's re-election vehicle There was no deal on IEBC at State House, says DP William Ruto JAP wins Lelmokwo/Ngechek by elections in a tough tussle with Kanu Kabogo's sentiments contradicted the President who during his tour of central Kenya in April asked voters in his Mt Kenya stronghold to support his deputy in the 2022 presidential election. Speaking in Kiambu town during the tour, Uhuru was eager to dispel fears that voters in the region would not back his deputy's bid after his second term expires. In an apparent move to rally the region behind his deputy, Uhuru made it clear that he intended to hand over the leadership baton to Ruto. "This is my brother who I have worked with for the sake of unity and development for all Kenyans. It is a journey that we started together and will finish together so that Kenyans can live in peace," the President said. "I have worked with this young man (Ruto) and I can assure you, my people, that he is capable of leading this country and carrying on the Jubilee development agenda." Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichungw'a, a fierce Kabogo critic, claimed the governor had little say in deciding who the region would support. Ngewa MCA Karungo wa Thangw'a urged Mt Kenya voters to ignore Kabogo's comments and continue supporting the DP. Imenti South MP Kathuri Murungi said the region would support Ruto.
Read more at: http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000204378/mt-kenya-support-not-guaranteed-ruto-told

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Negotiations will determine who Mt Kenya voters will support for the presidency in 2022, Kiambu Governor William Kabogo has said. In a thinly-veiled statement that may be seen as directed at Deputy President William Ruto, Mr Kabogo said the region would have to deliberate on who to support for the country's top seat come 2022. Kabogo said the region's support would not be automatic or guaranteed for any individual, adding that the region would not be compelled to support any preferred candidate to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta. Speaking at Muiri farm in Juja, the county boss said the region had many votes and would have to chart its own political destiny once Uhuru was through with his constitutional two five-year terms. "Even if we promised someone a seat, we will have to sit down and talk. We will not just give away the seat like that. If you think because we agreed it will go like that... We have the votes and therefore have to be respected," said Kabogo. The governor said people should stop thinking that just because there was an agreement things would go as agreed. READ MORE Jubilee MPs in final push for Uhuruto's re-election vehicle There was no deal on IEBC at State House, says DP William Ruto JAP wins Lelmokwo/Ngechek by elections in a tough tussle with Kanu Kabogo's sentiments contradicted the President who during his tour of central Kenya in April asked voters in his Mt Kenya stronghold to support his deputy in the 2022 presidential election. Speaking in Kiambu town during the tour, Uhuru was eager to dispel fears that voters in the region would not back his deputy's bid after his second term expires. In an apparent move to rally the region behind his deputy, Uhuru made it clear that he intended to hand over the leadership baton to Ruto. "This is my brother who I have worked with for the sake of unity and development for all Kenyans. It is a journey that we started together and will finish together so that Kenyans can live in peace," the President said. "I have worked with this young man (Ruto) and I can assure you, my people, that he is capable of leading this country and carrying on the Jubilee development agenda." Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichungw'a, a fierce Kabogo critic, claimed the governor had little say in deciding who the region would support. Ngewa MCA Karungo wa Thangw'a urged Mt Kenya voters to ignore Kabogo's comments and continue supporting the DP. Imenti South MP Kathuri Murungi said the region would support Ruto.
Read more at: http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000204378/mt-kenya-support-not-guaranteed-ruto-told

Kabogo is getting ahead of himself.  This number is meant to be played after 2017 and not a moment before.

[Empedocles]

Negotiations will determine who Mt Kenya voters will support for the presidency in 2022, Kiambu Governor William Kabogo has said. In a thinly-veiled statement that may be seen as directed at Deputy President William Ruto, Mr Kabogo said the region would have to deliberate on who to support for the country's top seat come 2022. Kabogo said the region's support would not be automatic or guaranteed for any individual, adding that the region would not be compelled to support any preferred candidate to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta. Speaking at Muiri farm in Juja, the county boss said the region had many votes and would have to chart its own political destiny once Uhuru was through with his constitutional two five-year terms. "Even if we promised someone a seat, we will have to sit down and talk. We will not just give away the seat like that. If you think because we agreed it will go like that... We have the votes and therefore have to be respected," said Kabogo. The governor said people should stop thinking that just because there was an agreement things would go as agreed. READ MORE Jubilee MPs in final push for Uhuruto's re-election vehicle There was no deal on IEBC at State House, says DP William Ruto JAP wins Lelmokwo/Ngechek by elections in a tough tussle with Kanu Kabogo's sentiments contradicted the President who during his tour of central Kenya in April asked voters in his Mt Kenya stronghold to support his deputy in the 2022 presidential election. Speaking in Kiambu town during the tour, Uhuru was eager to dispel fears that voters in the region would not back his deputy's bid after his second term expires. In an apparent move to rally the region behind his deputy, Uhuru made it clear that he intended to hand over the leadership baton to Ruto. "This is my brother who I have worked with for the sake of unity and development for all Kenyans. It is a journey that we started together and will finish together so that Kenyans can live in peace," the President said. "I have worked with this young man (Ruto) and I can assure you, my people, that he is capable of leading this country and carrying on the Jubilee development agenda." Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichungw'a, a fierce Kabogo critic, claimed the governor had little say in deciding who the region would support. Ngewa MCA Karungo wa Thangw'a urged Mt Kenya voters to ignore Kabogo's comments and continue supporting the DP. Imenti South MP Kathuri Murungi said the region would support Ruto.
Read more at: http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000204378/mt-kenya-support-not-guaranteed-ruto-told

Kabogo is getting ahead of himself.  This number is meant to be played after 2017 and not a moment before.

Isn't Kabogo a loner in Jubilee?

[RV Pundit]

He certainly doesnt speak for Uhuru--who is the guy who will make Ruto pork.

Isn't Kabogo a loner in Jubilee?

[Pajero]

The silence in kikuyu land over Kabogos remarks should worry some people,only 4 mps from Kiambu who are known Kabogos nemesis have come out to openly condemn him.

[RV Pundit]

After 50% plus 1 requirement; no community in kenya can do it alone. Therefore it rather obvious that in 2017 or 2022 just like in 2013 coalition of big tribes has and must happen. Now it simple. in 2017-- Ruto & RV best deal is to get 50% with GEMA. In 2022...it will be the same...GEMA can choose to scuttle the coalition with RV...and both will ran to form other coalitions with rest of big tribes...and both may end up with a bad deal..or continue with 50-50.

It obvious 50-50 is the only deal after constitution 50% plus 1. Nobody can do it alone.

The silence in kikuyu land over Kabogos remarks should worry some people,only 4 mps from Kiambu who are known Kabogos nemesis have come out to openly condemn him.

[Pajero]

Whats Ruto's plan B,incase okuyus dont keep their promise????Fact is that if he rans without okuyu votes then he probably will end up no 3 behind Peter Kenneth and Raila Odinga.