BREXIT

[Nefertiti]

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It seems noone has an eye on this hot potato. I reckon nipate is a diaspora forum; still EU/UK is closer home than US especially economically. Brexit is driven by nationalist and xenophobic sentiment. It's a swing to the right -- reduced immigration, humanitarianism, etc. Coupled with reduced welfare, small government, individual responsibility, the works.

What I see for Kenya / Africa :

1. Reduced immigration - this is a gain as it has been settled before that manpower movement is capital flight. The west is great for our elusive middle class but it is indeed economic hemorrhage to Africa.

2. EU integration slowdown / breakdown - gain.

2.1 The xenos, as part of their stop-immigration argument, tend to do more abroad to stem Leftist voter imports. It's partly why racist rethugs do more in Africa than alien-embracing liberals. Moral overcompensation is also a factor. The byproduct of xeno is actually a more lasting solution for us than immigration.

2.2 Less EU subsidies for Eastern Europe actually means more out-of-Europe transactions and capitalflow. Integration helps poor EU countries and starves Africa/non-EU. Without EU we can compete* with Ukraine, once they join EU there is a self sufficiency that locks us out.

3. One World - gain. Add to 2, tight EU block alienates non-EU. Omollo's global convergence ideal of moving masses into ghost cities is folly with insulated regions whose illusion of safety makes them callous to others. EU/US/NATO prosperity made them disregard the dangers of gulf wars/Arab Spring. European Spring has inspired a fresh sanity. A One-world setup keeps everyone sober.

Of course there is the downside of resurgent racism with these folks in government. Obama's DAPA is up for review am told, so same the English equivalent. Let us hope diaspora remittances will not dry up soon.

[RV Pundit]

Britain(UK) is slowly becoming a little island with overrated influence. I think this will be a non-event.Germany remain the top dog in EU. And to some extend France the lapdog.The rest are flower girls.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

It seems noone has an eye on this hot potato. I reckon nipate is a diaspora forum; still EU/UK is closer home than US especially economically. Brexit is driven by nationalist and xenophobic sentiment. It's a swing to the right -- reduced immigration, humanitarianism, etc. Coupled with reduced welfare, small government, individual responsibility, the works.

What I see for Kenya / Africa :

1. Reduced immigration - this is a gain as it has been settled before that manpower movement is capital flight. The west is great for our elusive middle class but it is indeed economic hemorrhage to Africa.

2. EU integration slowdown / breakdown - gain.

2.1 The xenos, as part of their stop-immigration argument, tend to do more abroad to stem Leftist voter imports. It's partly why racist rethugs do more in Africa than alien-embracing liberals. Moral overcompensation is also a factor. The byproduct of xeno is actually a more lasting solution for us than immigration.

2.2 Less EU subsidies for Eastern Europe actually means more out-of-Europe transactions and capitalflow. Integration helps poor EU countries and starves Africa/non-EU. Without EU we can compete* with Ukraine, once they join EU there is a self sufficiency that locks us out.

3. One World - gain. Add to 2, tight EU block alienates non-EU. Omollo's global convergence ideal of moving masses into ghost cities is folly with insulated regions whose illusion of safety makes them callous to others. EU/US/NATO prosperity made them disregard the dangers of gulf wars/Arab Spring. European Spring has inspired a fresh sanity. A One-world setup keeps everyone sober.

Of course there is the downside of resurgent racism with these folks in government. Obama's DAPA is up for review am told, so same the English equivalent. Let us hope diaspora remittances will not dry up soon.

I don't know why they want to leave the EU.  Britain by itself seems more immigrant friendly than the EU in general; that cannot be the reason.  They  are better off inside EU.  For the same reason that California is better off as part of the US. 

Europe's population is aging.  They have to replace the productive part of the population with someone.  They probably hoped to solve that by embracing the poorer nations of Eastern Europe, hence preventing the browning of the population, but I don't think Eastern Europe is doing any better demographically.

Ultimately, they have to welcome the dark skinned hordes risking life and limb to get to their doors.

[Nefertiti]

It seems noone has an eye on this hot potato. I reckon nipate is a diaspora forum; still EU/UK is closer home than US especially economically. Brexit is driven by nationalist and xenophobic sentiment. It's a swing to the right -- reduced immigration, humanitarianism, etc. Coupled with reduced welfare, small government, individual responsibility, the works.

What I see for Kenya / Africa :

1. Reduced immigration - this is a gain as it has been settled before that manpower movement is capital flight. The west is great for our elusive middle class but it is indeed economic hemorrhage to Africa.

2. EU integration slowdown / breakdown - gain.

2.1 The xenos, as part of their stop-immigration argument, tend to do more abroad to stem Leftist voter imports. It's partly why racist rethugs do more in Africa than alien-embracing liberals. Moral overcompensation is also a factor. The byproduct of xeno is actually a more lasting solution for us than immigration.

2.2 Less EU subsidies for Eastern Europe actually means more out-of-Europe transactions and capitalflow. Integration helps poor EU countries and starves Africa/non-EU. Without EU we can compete* with Ukraine, once they join EU there is a self sufficiency that locks us out.

3. One World - gain. Add to 2, tight EU block alienates non-EU. Omollo's global convergence ideal of moving masses into ghost cities is folly with insulated regions whose illusion of safety makes them callous to others. EU/US/NATO prosperity made them disregard the dangers of gulf wars/Arab Spring. European Spring has inspired a fresh sanity. A One-world setup keeps everyone sober.

Of course there is the downside of resurgent racism with these folks in government. Obama's DAPA is up for review am told, so same the English equivalent. Let us hope diaspora remittances will not dry up soon.

I don't know why they want to leave the EU.  Britain by itself seems more immigrant friendly than the EU in general; that cannot be the reason.  They  are better off inside EU.  For the same reason that California is better off as part of the US. 

Europe's population is aging.  They have to replace the productive part of the population with someone.  They probably hoped to solve that by embracing the poorer nations of Eastern Europe, hence preventing the browning of the population, but I don't think Eastern Europe is doing any better demographically.

Ultimately, they have to welcome the dark skinned hordes risking life and limb to get to their doors.

UKIP is rabidly xenophobe, and the Tories are seriously anti-migrant. Except for human capital reasons (skilled immigrants). Cameron had to promise EU referendum to win last elections. Obviously it's irrational fear but that is besides the point.

Demographic cliff... obviously immigration works out fine for this. French National and German AfD (xenos) want women to get 4 children each with more parental benefits as motivation. Criminalize abortion, etc. Knee-jerk policies that need a generation to worl of course. Ultimately economic realities will bring them back to their senses.

Japan is faced with a similar catastrophe with its mechanized robot industry. EU colonial legacy is a boon due to the common language integration with 3rd world. Nobody speaks Japanese outside Japan.

My point - political pendulum in the west has little if any negative effects for the 3rd world. Except for the boat headlines.

[Nefertiti]

At 4BUSD economy give them some credit. 60-70X Kenya's, with tinier space, equal population. Too many English geniuses I think. Newton, Shakespeare, Darwin. Here we have M-KOPA You just need to board English Tunnel -to- London Metro direct to know this is a great civilization. While Pundit queues for hours to take Diani ferry...

Of course Germans are better hence the envy but Brits are not really flower girls. It is widely acknowledged Brexit may unravel Project EU.

Britain(UK) is slowly becoming a little island with overrated influence. I think this will be a non-event.Germany remain the top dog in EU. And to some extend France the lapdog.The rest are flower girls.

[RV Pundit]

UK has had it time and for now they got to choose to become German poodles in EU or work loosely with US like they did during Bush era.

UKIP is rabidly xenophobe, and the Tories are seriously anti-migrant. Except for human capital reasons (skilled immigrants). Cameron had to promise EU referendum to win last elections. Obviously it's irrational fear but that is besides the point.

Demographic cliff... obviously immigration works out fine for this. French National and German AfD (xenos) want women to get 4 children each with more parental benefits as motivation. Criminalize abortion, etc. Knee-jerk policies that need a generation to worl of course. Ultimately economic realities will bring them back to their senses.

Japan is faced with a similar catastrophe with its mechanized robot industry. EU colonial legacy is a boon due to the common language integration with 3rd world. Nobody speaks Japanese outside Japan.

My point - political pendulum in the west has little if any negative effects for the 3rd world. Except for the boat headlines.

[Nefertiti]

I agree. Opinion polls show they are headed for exit. They have a big empire hangover, can't accept new reality of Germany, Chinese, India, etc with no stick or carrot to wield.

Sample this... hilarious

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/20/chinese-human-rights-british

UK has had it time and for now they got to choose to become German poodles in EU or work loosely with US like they did during Bush era.

UKIP is rabidly xenophobe, and the Tories are seriously anti-migrant. Except for human capital reasons (skilled immigrants). Cameron had to promise EU referendum to win last elections. Obviously it's irrational fear but that is besides the point.

Demographic cliff... obviously immigration works out fine for this. French National and German AfD (xenos) want women to get 4 children each with more parental benefits as motivation. Criminalize abortion, etc. Knee-jerk policies that need a generation to worl of course. Ultimately economic realities will bring them back to their senses.

Japan is faced with a similar catastrophe with its mechanized robot industry. EU colonial legacy is a boon due to the common language integration with 3rd world. Nobody speaks Japanese outside Japan.

My point - political pendulum in the west has little if any negative effects for the 3rd world. Except for the boat headlines.

[bryan275]

Word on the ground is that Brexit is gaining momentum, driven mainly by a significant body of the ignorant Brit.  The issue is basically the white poorly educated blue collar white man is facing serious global competition from eastern europe and the rest of the world.  UKIP utilised this threat to great effect and gained a following from this group which occupies the entire political spectrum.

Cameron made matters worse when he promised a referendum to try and win back defecting Tories in order to win the election.   Cameron himself is a pretend euroskeptic, and is now suffering the hangover of a well oiled propaganda machine driven by the right wing media.  For years now, the British public have been fed a diet of supremacy and xenophobia towards other europeans and immigrants in general. 

It will be a close vote, with the majority of those voting to leave completely clueless as to the advantages that they currently enjoy from europe...

I want to remain so that my kids have 27(+Kenya to choose from for settlement)- Selfish i know,but that's life...

[Nefertiti]

Economically Brexit is good for 3rd world, same as anti-immigrant Trump, Wilders, Petry. Immigration is a net loss for the poor nations. So the xenophobe whites are a good thing, while the tribalism, corruption and west-looking of most Africans is a really big minus for us. The more people who actually vote wise, work local, buy local, invest local and immigrate local the better.

Word on the ground is that Brexit is gaining momentum, driven mainly by a significant body of the ignorant Brit.  The issue is basically the white poorly educated blue collar white man is facing serious global competition from eastern europe and the rest of the world.  UKIP utilised this threat to great effect and gained a following from this group which occupies the entire political spectrum.

Cameron made matters worse when he promised a referendum to try and win back defecting Tories in order to win the election.   Cameron himself is a pretend euroskeptic, and is now suffering the hangover of a well oiled propaganda machine driven by the right wing media.  For years now, the British public have been fed a diet of supremacy and xenophobia towards other europeans and immigrants in general. 

It will be a close vote, with the majority of those voting to leave completely clueless as to the advantages that they currently enjoy from europe...

I want to remain so that my kids have 27(+Kenya to choose from for settlement)- Selfish i know,but that's life...

[Nefertiti]

Bryan275, I want xenophobia to prevail so that you are forced to invest in Kenya to safeguard your future 

[bryan275]

Bryan275, I want xenophobia to prevail so that you are forced to invest in Kenya to safeguard your future 

Hehe, too late.  We took the decision as a family to invest and do business where we live.  Recently I witnessed a friend taking serious heat from his siblings in Kenya.  The chap ended up walking away from his inheritance.  That experience has left me wondering whether bequeathing my own kids land in Kenya may not end up being more trouble for them than what it's worth.

Finally, I enjoy sleeping and cannot afford to lose that sleep over "investments" that may grow legs back home. 

Pesa yangu yote iko chini ya matress where I can feel it every day and night.

[bryan275]

Robina,

Yesterday President Obama made a very frank and pointed speech advising Brits to vote to remain in the EU.  He suggested that Britain independent of Europ will be at the back of the queue in doing deals with the US.  This one remark has been seized upon by the xenophobes, with some suggesting that Obama's "Kenyanness" and need to avenge his grandad's harsh life in colonial Kenya is what's informing his tough speaking. (Seems Kenya can't catch a break)

The Brits are incensed, nobody tells them what to do... They suggested that their referendum was none of his business, until he reminded them that thousands of US soldiers died and are indeed buried in Europe and that it IS his business to discuss it...

It's getting nasty...very

[MOON Ki]

Hehe, too late.  We took the decision as a family to invest and do business where we live.  Recently I witnessed a friend taking serious heat from his siblings in Kenya.  The chap ended up walking away from his inheritance.  That experience has left me wondering whether bequeathing my own kids land in Kenya may not end up being more trouble for them than what it's worth.

Finally, I enjoy sleeping and cannot afford to lose that sleep over "investments" that may grow legs back home. 

I can well sympathize with that; dealing with some of our compatriots back home can be very trying, given the attitude that any money from overseas is for the eating. 

On Brexit: My prediction/guess is that it won't happen, but it will help some people let out a bit of steam.  The last time I was there, I was astonished by the levels of ill feeling towards Poles and the like ...   

[bryan275]

Economically Brexit is good for 3rd world, same as anti-immigrant Trump, Wilders, Petry. Immigration is a net loss for the poor nations. So the xenophobe whites are a good thing, while the tribalism, corruption and west-looking of most Africans is a really big minus for us. The more people who actually vote wise, work local, buy local, invest local and immigrate local the better.

You're right, BREXIT will be good for the ex colonies.  Part of the negotiations for the UK to join the EEC required them to cut their trade with the colonies, and ramp up trade with the EU countries.

Kenyan exports could increase massively in the wake of the BREXIT.  Obviously the criminal government will need to make strategic moves to make it happen.  I am not sure it has the capacity to so..

[Nefertiti]

You're right, BREXIT will be good for the ex colonies.  Part of the negotiations for the UK to join the EEC required them to cut their trade with the colonies, and ramp up trade with the EU countries.

Kenyan exports could increase massively in the wake of the BREXIT.  Obviously the criminal government will need to make strategic moves to make it happen.  I am not sure it has the capacity to so..

They have to -- ambition and the cavalier nature of 50%+1 politics ensures the need to impress. That would be the reason not patriotism or sense of responsibility.

[Nefertiti]

I can well sympathize with that; dealing with some of our compatriots back home can be very trying, given the attitude that any money from overseas is for the eating. 

On Brexit: My prediction/guess is that it won't happen, but it will help some people let out a bit of steam.  The last time I was there, I was astonished by the levels of ill feeling towards Poles and the like ...   

The issue with BREXIT is politics; people's careers are pegged on it. Especially one Boris Johnson. So jobs, immigrants, terrorism, "sovereignty" and the usual emotives come in handy just like our local tribalism.

My bet is a sizeable Brexit win plus an early sendoff for David Cameron.

[bryan275]

I can well sympathize with that; dealing with some of our compatriots back home can be very trying, given the attitude that any money from overseas is for the eating. 

On Brexit: My prediction/guess is that it won't happen, but it will help some people let out a bit of steam.  The last time I was there, I was astonished by the levels of ill feeling towards Poles and the like ...   

The issue with BREXIT is politics; people's careers are pegged on it. Especially one Boris Johnson. So jobs, immigrants, terrorism, "sovereignty" and the usual emotives come in handy just like our local tribalism.

My bet is a sizeable Brexit win plus an early sendoff for David Cameron.

If BREXIT win, Cameron will be gone on June 24th.  This is why he's bringing in big guns to defend him.  Boris is gunning for PM, and this is why he returned to parliament last year.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Bryan275,

The Scots recently voted to stay in the UK.  Do they also want to leave the EU?

[Nefertiti]

Bryan275,

The Scots recently voted to stay in the UK.  Do they also want to leave the EU?

Yes, the Scots and the North Irish get to vote and suffer the consequences. They have made fresh separatist grumbles but key EU member Spain vows to block admission of secessionists fearing territorial splits of her own. Poor Scots are stuck with the English majority tyranny.

[Real P]

Robina, what do you think of Obama suggesting y'all stay in the EU?  I saw him on television the other day talking about it and I am curious how it was received.

Does his opinion matter? Do you agree that it would be better for UK to stay in?