Author Topic: SGR Detractor  (Read 17154 times)

Offline Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants

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SGR Detractor
« on: April 13, 2016, 10:14:28 PM »

I watch Kiriro Wa Ngugi and I am left scratching my head.  Is Kiriro utterly clueless or did the GoK simply not give a damn about better alternatives?  Are Kenyans able to utilize information to their advantage or are we just helpless prisoners of political/tribal/corruption agendas?
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Offline Globalcitizen12

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Re: SGR Detractor
« Reply #1 on: April 13, 2016, 11:39:18 PM »
detractor..we have to build so that the cargo can come.. Ndii calls it Cargo mentality. Now let us see who the capacity will be utilized. Another behemoth Government owned Enterprise is in offing to start draining treasury year in year out. RVR could not turn a profit even with all the help it could get from Kibaki cronyism 

Offline Georgesoros

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Re: SGR Detractor
« Reply #2 on: April 14, 2016, 01:08:41 AM »
In all fairness this project was started by kibaki/Raila admin. Uhuru hasn't really come up with any serious projects. This is more a long term project that will benefit when the economy grows -20yrs.
In my opinions a  nrb-ksm dual carriage way will benefit the rift and the west.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: SGR Detractor
« Reply #3 on: April 14, 2016, 12:10:40 PM »
SGR is water under the bridge. It past 70% completion mark. Now it going to snake it way to Naivasha then Narok then Bomet to Kissi then Kisumu and finally Malaba. This is trans-formative project.

Offline bryan275

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Re: SGR Detractor
« Reply #4 on: April 14, 2016, 12:32:48 PM »
This is very tragic.  There are diesel trains that run at 125 miles per hour.  Obviously this captain of industry does not know that.  Ukabila is finishing Kenya...

There are people with better knowledge of the rail industry than this thicko.  Mr Mutoko could have done a better job..

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: SGR Detractor
« Reply #5 on: April 14, 2016, 03:25:20 PM »

Offline Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants

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Re: SGR Detractor
« Reply #6 on: April 14, 2016, 03:51:12 PM »
This is very tragic.  There are diesel trains that run at 125 miles per hour.  Obviously this captain of industry does not know that.  Ukabila is finishing Kenya...

There are people with better knowledge of the rail industry than this thicko.  Mr Mutoko could have done a better job..
So he was wrong about the diesel trains.  What about the rest of it?  Did he make sense in his arguments about refurbishing the meter gauge? I am not sure how ukabila comes into the man's presentation; he didn't indulge in any politics.
"I freed a thousand slaves.  I could have freed a thousand more if only they knew they were slaves."

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Offline MOON Ki

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Re: SGR Detractor
« Reply #7 on: April 14, 2016, 04:28:52 PM »
I watch Kiriro Wa Ngugi and I am left scratching my head.  Is Kiriro utterly clueless or did the GoK simply not give a damn about better alternatives?  Are Kenyans able to utilize information to their advantage or are we just helpless prisoners of political/tribal/corruption agendas?

We cannot even answer either of those questions, because of reasons that are implicit in the second question.   A sort of "meta" thing ....

As the EAC's Japanese consultant said: "Your obsession with gauge is misplaced.  After you spend all that money, your trains will be slower than what we have on narrow gauge lines that are older than yours.  Why not just work with what you have, but learn to maintain it?".   And Kiriro has a related point: nobody wants to move cargo particularly fast.    In Japan, the longest 130 kph line is used for cargo, on a line parallel to a "bullet rain line", although there is one passenger train for people who wish to take their time (dark-night, touchy-feely on a train etc.)   

The other interesting point I picked up from a quick listening was on Chinese idea for costs on passenger tickets.   Once the Chinese were told a different number, they came to their own conclusions on profitability.  WHACK!   That's the sound from the insurance cost they put on the loans (in case the line makes no money).   Compare that insurance cost with the interest on the loan.

Seeing as you live in the USA, this might interest you.   In order to move to standard gauge, the USA took a most logical approach: Given that gauge is simply the distance between rails, in order to change gauge, why not just pick one side of the railway line and move it by a few inches to the left?   And they did exactly that---about 12,000 miles in two (yes, two) days!   In 1886.

The middle of this debate: http://jukwaa.proboards.com/thread/8839/standard-gauge-railway-which-kenya?page=3
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Offline MOON Ki

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Re: SGR Detractor
« Reply #8 on: April 14, 2016, 04:32:14 PM »
In all fairness this project was started by kibaki/Raila admin. Uhuru hasn't really come up with any serious projects. This is more a long term project that will benefit when the economy grows -20yrs.
In my opinions a  nrb-ksm dual carriage way will benefit the rift and the west.

Not quite.   At the time Raila/Kibaki were getting ready to pack up and go, there were at least  two clear options: (a) refurbish the existing lines, and (b) SGR.    Uhuru could just as easily have chosen (a) instead of running off to borrow huge sums.   

20 years?  Maintenance: how long, post-1963, did it the old lines to go to the dogs?   

Growing economy?   I've looked at most of the relevant data---and least what's readily available---and I'd be interested in seeing any reasonable projections that show that growth in cargo (based on economic growth) will allow the railway to run at anything other than a loss.
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Offline MOON Ki

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Re: SGR Detractor
« Reply #9 on: April 14, 2016, 05:04:40 PM »
There are diesel trains that run at 125 miles per hour. 

I think I missed something here.    The point is?
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Offline Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants

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Re: SGR Detractor
« Reply #10 on: April 14, 2016, 05:07:20 PM »
I watch Kiriro Wa Ngugi and I am left scratching my head.  Is Kiriro utterly clueless or did the GoK simply not give a damn about better alternatives?  Are Kenyans able to utilize information to their advantage or are we just helpless prisoners of political/tribal/corruption agendas?

We cannot even answer either of those questions, because of reasons that are implicit in the second question.   A sort of "meta" thing ....

As the EAC's Japanese consultant said: "Your obsession with gauge is misplaced.  After you spend all that money, your trains will be slower than what we have on narrow gauge lines that are older than yours.  Why not just work with what you have, but learn to maintain it?".   And Kiriro has a related point: nobody wants to move cargo particularly fast.    In Japan, the longest 130 kph line is used for cargo, on a line parallel to a "bullet rain line", although there is one passenger train for people who wish to take their time (dark-night, touchy-feely on a train etc.)   

Seeing as you live in the USA, this might interest you.   In order to move to standard gauge, the USA took a most logical approach: Given that gauge is simply the distance between rails, in order to change gauge, why not just pick one side of the railway line and move it by a few inches to the left?   And they did exactly that---about 12,000 miles in two (yes, two days)!   In 1886.

The middle of this debate: http://jukwaa.proboards.com/thread/8839/standard-gauge-railway-which-kenya?page=3
I think they have heard of these options.  It should be obvious they have.  I find it hard to believe otherwise.  Why choose SGR?  Maybe they think it is transformational, even if they cannot put a finger on why?  That it is better than the other options even if they cannot quite explain why.  Or, something you can never rule out in Kenya, it is just easier to eat from SGR.

The example about USA standard gauge is intriguing.  In that case they were reducing the gauge, so they did not have to worry about running out of crosstie space.  Still it makes a lot of sense.  The challenges would be on the curves, where you might have to add or chip off sections; probably minor given that they were able to pull this off with 19th century manual labor.
"I freed a thousand slaves.  I could have freed a thousand more if only they knew they were slaves."

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Offline MOON Ki

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Re: SGR Detractor
« Reply #11 on: April 14, 2016, 05:32:15 PM »
The example about USA standard gauge is intriguing.  In that case they were reducing the gauge, so they did not have to worry about running out of crosstie space. 

True; I was primarily thinking of: (a) working on "top" of the existing line, and (b) how impressive the feat was.   

As to the practicalities, I once went to look at a railway line, wondering what it would take to extend gauge by moving one line  little to the left and the other line a little to the right.  The better and more practical alternative seemed to be to add a third rail, ... and then  lost interest.

Quote
Or, something you can never rule out in Kenya, it is just easier to eat from SGR.

Bingo!   
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Offline RV Pundit

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Re: SGR Detractor
« Reply #12 on: April 14, 2016, 05:43:30 PM »
Ignoring the postmortem issues (sgr is snaking its way); which data did you look into? The last I heard Mombasa port was the forth busiest port in Africa and is moving more than 1M containers annually.
Growing economy?   I've looked at most of the relevant data---and least what's readily available---and I'd be interested in seeing any reasonable projections that show that growth in cargo (based on economic growth) will allow the railway to run at anything other than a loss.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: SGR Detractor
« Reply #13 on: April 14, 2016, 05:47:47 PM »
MGR is locked under 25yrs concession by both Kenya and Uganda gov. A concession that was badly designed by World Bank and Kibaki folks. GoK had the options of messy cancellation...but Uganda need to agree..or build a brand new line....

The brand new line except for Mombasa-Nairobi will not pass the same route with old line..it goes to Naivasha to Narok to Bomet to Sondu to Kisumu...so this line is going to open another corridor.

So Gok in the future [when 25yrs elapses] will upgrade MGR to SGR..in Nakuru to Eldoret to Malaba..and all the other lines.

Lapset rail-line will then cover the northern kenya.

And kenya may in few years be somewhere near where it should when it comes to railway network for moving cargo.


We cannot even answer either of those questions, because of reasons that are implicit in the second question.   A sort of "meta" thing ....

As the EAC's Japanese consultant said: "Your obsession with gauge is misplaced.  After you spend all that money, your trains will be slower than what we have on narrow gauge lines that are older than yours.  Why not just work with what you have, but learn to maintain it?".   And Kiriro has a related point: nobody wants to move cargo particularly fast.    In Japan, the longest 130 kph line is used for cargo, on a line parallel to a "bullet rain line", although there is one passenger train for people who wish to take their time (dark-night, touchy-feely on a train etc.)   

Seeing as you live in the USA, this might interest you.   In order to move to standard gauge, the USA took a most logical approach: Given that gauge is simply the distance between rails, in order to change gauge, why not just pick one side of the railway line and move it by a few inches to the left?   And they did exactly that---about 12,000 miles in two (yes, two days)!   In 1886.

The middle of this debate: http://jukwaa.proboards.com/thread/8839/standard-gauge-railway-which-kenya?page=3
I think they have heard of these options.  It should be obvious they have.  I find it hard to believe otherwise.  Why choose SGR?  Maybe they think it is transformational, even if they cannot put a finger on why?  That it is better than the other options even if they cannot quite explain why.  Or, something you can never rule out in Kenya, it is just easier to eat from SGR.

The example about USA standard gauge is intriguing.  In that case they were reducing the gauge, so they did not have to worry about running out of crosstie space.  Still it makes a lot of sense.  The challenges would be on the curves, where you might have to add or chip off sections; probably minor given that they were able to pull this off with 19th century manual labor.
[/quote]

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: SGR Detractor
« Reply #14 on: April 14, 2016, 05:54:19 PM »
Ignoring the postmortem issues (sgr is snaking its way); which data did you look into? The last I heard Mombasa port was the forth busiest port in Africa and is moving more than 1M containers annually.

I'll see if I can did it up tomorrow; it was either from a Canadian consulting company of from the World Bank.    It looked at the projected growth, by tonnage, year by year.   

Mombasa being the 4th busiest port in Africa or moving 1M containers would not be relevant to the data, in that if Africa is not moving a lot of tonnage, then being the 4th does not matter much.  The issue is simply one of how much  the line is projected to carry.
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Offline bryan275

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Re: SGR Detractor
« Reply #15 on: April 14, 2016, 07:47:13 PM »
WindyCity,

The ukabila simply comes in because this man cannot bring himself to critically appraise the project purely because wameshika serekali.  His tribal blinkers even lead him to conclude that ALL diesel trains are slow.  Is this because perhaps all he knows are slow diesel trucks in his backyard?

Points to a shockingly lazy and misinformed chap.  How did he qualify to speak anyway?

A simple websearch would have led him to the following wiki:

Quote



The InterCity 125 was the brand name of British Rail's High Speed Train (HST) fleet, which was built from 1975 to 1982 and was introduced in 1976. The InterCity 125 train is made up of two Class 43 power cars, one at each end of a fixed formation of Mark 3 carriages (the number of carriages varies by operator). The train operates at speeds of up to 125 mph (201 km/h) in regular service, and has an absolute maximum speed of 148 mph (238 km/h), making it the fastest diesel-powered train in the world, a record it has held from its introduction to the present day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/InterCity_125
 

I gave up listening after his silly claim about slow diesels...

Offline bryan275

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Re: SGR Detractor
« Reply #16 on: April 14, 2016, 07:54:46 PM »
There are diesel trains that run at 125 miles per hour. 

I think I missed something here.    The point is?

The point is that he claims the SGR will only be good for freight as it will be operating diesel trains, and that diesels are too slow for passenger traffic.  I think he was trying to justify the reasons why Kenya went for diesel as opposed to electric.  He supported that by declaring that Kenya generates 1600MW of power while electric trains on the same line will need 1700MW.  The funniest bit was suggesting that cargo is not time sensitive and therefore will make do with the slow trains on the SGR.

Anyway, i do not know much about the railway industry to offer suggestions, apart from what I have seen in Europe and the Middle east.  My hope is that the line is designed with the option of high speed trains in the future.  The Brits are suffering massive costs trying to adopt their windy lines to accommodate high speed trains.

 

Offline Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants

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Re: SGR Detractor
« Reply #17 on: April 14, 2016, 08:10:14 PM »
WindyCity,

The ukabila simply comes in because this man cannot bring himself to critically appraise the project purely because wameshika serekali.  His tribal blinkers even lead him to conclude that ALL diesel trains are slow.  Is this because perhaps all he knows are slow diesel trucks in his backyard?

Points to a shockingly lazy and misinformed chap.  How did he qualify to speak anyway?

A simple websearch would have led him to the following wiki:

Quote



The InterCity 125 was the brand name of British Rail's High Speed Train (HST) fleet, which was built from 1975 to 1982 and was introduced in 1976. The InterCity 125 train is made up of two Class 43 power cars, one at each end of a fixed formation of Mark 3 carriages (the number of carriages varies by operator). The train operates at speeds of up to 125 mph (201 km/h) in regular service, and has an absolute maximum speed of 148 mph (238 km/h), making it the fastest diesel-powered train in the world, a record it has held from its introduction to the present day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/InterCity_125
 

I gave up listening after his silly claim about slow diesels...

Bryan,

You are wrong if you assume he is batting for Jubilee.  You want to listen to the end.  The impression I have is that he is highlighting alternatives that Jubilee failed to consider.  Obviously his points about the diesel trains are wrong as you correctly point out.
"I freed a thousand slaves.  I could have freed a thousand more if only they knew they were slaves."

Harriet Tubman

Offline bryan275

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Re: SGR Detractor
« Reply #18 on: April 14, 2016, 08:39:13 PM »

Bryan,

You are wrong if you assume he is batting for Jubilee.  You want to listen to the end.  The impression I have is that he is highlighting alternatives that Jubilee failed to consider.  Obviously his points about the diesel trains are wrong as you correctly point out.

Well, accuracy is everything, I will try to muscle through the inaccuracies to see what else he has to say.

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: SGR Detractor
« Reply #19 on: April 15, 2016, 05:36:32 AM »
bryan275:

I can see where you are coming from, as the Americans would say.   

Let us start with the speed of diesel trains.   Such trains are, in principle capable of even higher speeds than the InterCity 125; this has been shown in numerous tests.     But in practice, who actually runs diesel trains at high speeds?   The InterCity is an exception, and, as you note, it holds some sort of world record.  Still, compared to really fast passenger trains, it would be considered something like a "medium-speed" train.  (Who else is running diesel trains at anything approaching that speed?)

You also state that:

Quote
The funniest bit was suggesting that cargo is not time sensitive. 

He did not suggest that.  What he suggested is cargo is not as time sensitive as passengers, which is an entirely different statement.   And he in support of that, he gave an argument that seems easy enough to verify: look around the world; who is moving train cargo at really high speed?   As far as I can tell, even where countries have high-speed tracks and trains, cargo tends go to much slower.   In Japan, for example, the railway lines are operated on the basis of "speed for passengers" and "predictability for cargo"; and the two generally travel on different lines.   

Lastly: I see no basis for the charge of ukabila.  A case of "your name betrays you"?.
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