How CORD Has Already Lost 2017 Elections

[MOON Ki]

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http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2016/03/10/we-will-not-extend-the-voter-registration-exercise-iebc_c1310999

[Globalcitizen12]

wasting 5 years making noise but no strategy to get the numbers to win

[Georgesoros]

CORD has no strategy. They think that demonizing Ruto will win elections. They ve failed in parliament for one.

[Empedocles]

CORD has no strategy. They think that demonizing Ruto will win elections. They ve failed in parliament for one.

CORD already knows that going against an incumbent in Kenya is next to impossible to win. CORD therefore has nusu on their mind. Reading their body language, their social media guys, etc, it's obvious what they plan; they are constantly drumming into the heads of their supporters that the next elections will definitely be rigged.

Incidentally, an interesting article from last year on why violence in 2017 is practically inevitable:

http://carolmusyoka.com/confluence-of-political-and-economic-risks/

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

CORD has no strategy. They think that demonizing Ruto will win elections. They ve failed in parliament for one.

CORD already knows that going against an incumbent in Kenya is next to impossible to win. CORD therefore has nusu on their mind. Reading their body language, their social media guys, etc, it's obvious what they plan; they are constantly drumming into the heads of their supporters that the next elections will definitely be rigged.

Incidentally, an interesting article from last year on why violence in 2017 is practically inevitable:

http://carolmusyoka.com/confluence-of-political-and-economic-risks/

I also noticed that pattern.  When an incumbent is running, it has been violent.  But I still think the absence of violence in 2013 has more to do with ICC and Bensouda than anything else.  The leaders and activists went out of their way to caution against demonstrations. 

Now, with kamwana walking and the hustler teetering on the same, they seem to have found a ticket to impunity by eliminating witnesses by guile or force.  Coupled with an incumbent seeking reelection for God-knows-what-purpose, 2017 could be a gloves off type of event.

I notice the election cycles have also always negatively affected Kenya's economy.  That is probably why neighboring TZ is catching up and will soon supplant Kenya as the regional giant.  There may be a need to lengthen the term of office if only to give the economy a bit more momentum at the next election cycle.

That said, CORD has had over 3 years and counting when they could have demanded nothing less than full implementation of the Kriegler recommendatoins by IEBC.  Not a peep has been heard from them over the same.

[RV Pundit]

CORD have no capacity for any serious violence. It will fizzle out after day one.

[Empedocles]

CORD have no capacity for any serious violence. It will fizzle out after day one.

But Jubilee do. It's their response which could trigger the serious violence.

[RV Pundit]

This is like expecting Besigye to cause trouble for M7. Never gonna happen.

But Jubilee do. It's their response which could trigger the serious violence.

[Empedocles]

This is like expecting Besigye to cause trouble for M7. Never gonna happen.

Exactly what Kibaki's handlers thought in 2007, despite all the evidence available before the elections. Classic example of hubris, being replicated yet again.

CORD knows, as things stand today, that they have zero chance of winning the elections against the incumbent. So what better way then to constantly drum into their supporters that the elections are going to be stolen "yet again"? Forget CORD discussing policy etc. on their social media and public platforms; all they talk about is the forthcoming rigging as if it's already a fact.

[MOON Ki]

Of course, there will be some rigging and misuse of government machinery.   But given that Kenyan voting is all about "our people", rather than issues, the basic numbers favour CORD, and they could have made things more difficult by registering large number of voters and then ensuring that they vote.   If CORD leaders have learned anything about the former, it must be a "deep" secret.   Too much time and energy were instead misdirected into the funny business known as Okoa Kenya.   So, as things stand, they will again be tyrannized by numbers from a smaller base.

Saying that there will be rigging or other bad behavior will not prevent it.   Threatening violence, implicitly or explicitly, won't work: in Kenya, as in most of Africa, whoever controls the state machinery wins in any round of electoral violence.   

[RV Pundit]

Kibaki slept on the job. Moi use to rig and nothing use to happen. M7 and most african rig but nothing happens. Opposition need the capacity to cause violence..and CORD sorely lacks it. CORD cannot forment tribal clashes of any serious magnitude. As long as RV is peaceful and coast is not militant...CORD can only cause violence in urban slums.

As long as Kamatusa and GEMA are on one side....CORD get beaten in all aspects.

Exactly what Kibaki's handlers thought in 2007, despite all the evidence available before the elections. Classic example of hubris, being replicated yet again.

CORD knows, as things stand today, that they have zero chance of winning the elections against the incumbent. So what better way then to constantly drum into their supporters that the elections are going to be stolen "yet again"? Forget CORD discussing policy etc. on their social media and public platforms; all they talk about is the forthcoming rigging as if it's already a fact.

[Empedocles]

Kibaki slept on the job. Moi use to rig and nothing use to happen. M7 and most african rig but nothing happens. Opposition need the capacity to cause violence..and CORD sorely lacks it. CORD cannot forment tribal clashes of any serious magnitude. As long as RV is peaceful and coast is not militant...CORD can only cause violence in urban slums.

As long as Kamatusa and GEMA are on one side....CORD get beaten in all aspects.

You're missing my point: it's Jubilee's response that I expect to be very heavy handed and unnecessary (as Moon Ki puts it, they control the violence). They feel like they're sitting on top of the world, to paraphrase DeCaprio. You see, the tribal hate cuts both ways. RAO has been a thorn on the side of MK for long, and next year is his final chance to clinch either the presidency or again the PM (look, don't ask how he expects to get the PM, he's not thinking correctly). It's the final inning for both sides.

[RV Pundit]

I believe Raila will still be running in 2022 against WSR.Nothing has slowed down Mugabe at 95 yrs...and Raila would be younger than PORK MOI and KIbaki. I don't understand the logic behind this heavy handed and unneccesary response causing violence. It doesn't make sense. Like how?

You're missing my point: it's Jubilee's response that I expect to be very heavy handed and unnecessary (as Moon Ki puts it, they control the violence). They feel like they're sitting on top of the world, to paraphrase DeCaprio. You see, the tribal hate cuts both ways. RAO has been a thorn on the side of MK for long, and next year is his final chance to clinch either the presidency or again the PM (look, don't ask how he expects to get the PM, he's not thinking correctly). It's the final inning for both sides.