Question to Jubilee supporters

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Just read another article of Dr Ndii and response to by Treasury. I think Dr Ndii has clearly lost it. There is no scandal here folks. Look for something else.

Here, again,  is a guy who is giving concrete figures and a seemingly thought-out analysis and not just waving his hands all over the place. 

http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/The-anatomy-of-a-grand-heist/-/440808/3035238/-/l1er9dz/-/index.html

It would help if someone could go over all this and say "this one is right" and "this one is wrong".

Other than a few typos, it's not easy to counter his points.  The difference between Ndii and Raila is that Ndii believes all the money was brought into the country.  And then stolen in the normal way.  The scandal was scattered around, so to speak.  Which makes it harder to put a finger on.  It also keeps it firmly within the kienyeji domain.

Raila is more concerned with the $999 million that was treated slightly differently from the rest of the monies; this might not necessarily be a huge deal, even if it's not clear why the transactions seemed to be handled in such a divergent manner.

[MOON Ki]

Raila is more concerned with the $999 million that was treated slightly differently from the rest of the monies; this might not necessarily be a huge deal, even if it's not clear why the transactions seemed to be handled in such a divergent manner.

Yes, there are problems there.   Actually there are lies and all sorts of fiddling going on.   By way of example, I shall point out one outright lie that can be seen by anyone with a basic ability to read plain English.
...
A major problem with Treasury's "explanations" is that they keep moving figures from one column to another, one row to another, this year or that year, between foreign and domestic .... Once in while someone slips and drags in things that are beyond their control to change.    These provide a sort of "solid" basis from which to view some aspects of the circus.
...
One of the things Ndii notes in his article is the matter of the "domestic borrowing" of Sh. 140b.  The money in question is Eurobond money, so it is, even by manamba understanding, not domestic.   Treasury keeps coming up with different explanations (but we need not get into those).   Let's take the latest, which you can find in the report entitled

"RESPONSE TO ALLEGATIONS THAT KSH 140 BILLION OF THE EUROBOND MONEY IS MISSING"

here: http://www.treasury.go.ke/downloads/category/24-press-releases

We are told there (page 2) that:

(Yes, there is plenty of 8-4-4 writing in these reports, but let's ignore that aspect.)

Alright.  There's Treasury with yet another "new-and-improved explanation".   A specific page of a specific report by the great International Monetary Fund.

The only problem with this new-and-improved is that the said page of said IMF report clearly puts all* Eurobond money under "foreign financing":

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2015/cr15269.pdf

What is the lie in aid of?

(Note to anyone tempted to explain away the lie: I've already considered all the obvious ones, so please put some effort into it.)

*Pre-Tap

[MOON Ki]

Treasury has explained all that needed explaining. Budget controller are okay with it. The same with Auditor General.

I think I missed them.   Which Auditor-General statements/reports do you have in mind?

[RV Pundit]

I am thinking the money was part of 2013/2014 and 2015 and Auditor General has some report somewhere definitely.

I think I missed them.   Which Auditor-General statements/reports do you have in mind?

[RV Pundit]

The long and short is clear. Eurobond (right from the prospectus) was borrowed principally for BUDGET SUPPORT..not for any specific project. And gov explained long before that EUROBOND was specifically meant to reduce domestic borrowing and hopefully lower interest rate by forcing banks to lending to folks.

Raila is more concerned with the $999 million that was treated slightly differently from the rest of the monies; this might not necessarily be a huge deal, even if it's not clear why the transactions seemed to be handled in such a divergent manner.

Yes, there are problems there.   Actually there are lies and all sorts of fiddling going on.   By way of example, I shall point out one outright lie that can be seen by anyone with a basic ability to read plain English.
...
A major problem with Treasury's "explanations" is that they keep moving figures from one column to another, one row to another, this year or that year, between foreign and domestic .... Once in while someone slips and drags in things that are beyond their control to change.    These provide a sort of "solid" basis from which to view some aspects of the circus.
...
One of the things Ndii notes in his article is the matter of the "domestic borrowing" of Sh. 140b.  The money in question is Eurobond money, so it is, even by manamba understanding, not domestic.   Treasury keeps coming up with different explanations (but we need not get into those).   Let's take the latest, which you can find in the report entitled

"RESPONSE TO ALLEGATIONS THAT KSH 140 BILLION OF THE EUROBOND MONEY IS MISSING"

here: http://www.treasury.go.ke/downloads/category/24-press-releases

We are told there (page 2) that:

(Yes, there is plenty of 8-4-4 writing in these reports, but let's ignore that aspect.)

Alright.  There's Treasury with yet another "new-and-improved explanation".   A specific page of a specific report by the great International Monetary Fund.

The only problem with this new-and-improved is that the said page of said IMF report clearly puts all* Eurobond money under "foreign financing":

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2015/cr15269.pdf

What is the lie in aid of?

(Note to anyone tempted to explain away the lie: I've already considered all the obvious ones, so please put some effort into it.)

*Pre-Tap

[MOON Ki]

I am thinking the money was part of 2013/2014 and 2015 and Auditor General has some report somewhere definitely.

Somewhere where?    When you wrote "Budget controller are okay with it. The same with Auditor General.", what specifically were you referring to?    I.e., where can we find the AG's claimed OK on the Eurobond money?

[MOON Ki]

The long and short is clear. Eurobond (right from the prospectus) was borrowed principally for BUDGET SUPPORT..not for any specific project. And gov explained long before that EUROBOND was specifically meant to reduce domestic borrowing and hopefully lower interest rate by forcing banks to lending to folks.

I don't think anybody disputes any of that, and none of it addresses the lie that I have pointed out.      The question is where all the money went.    So far, the Treasury by way of "clarifying explanations" has, in its various tables, been moving some figure column to column and row to row, according to wherever someone claims there is a hole.    In this process it has sometimes engaged in outright lies to try and explain away the fiddling.   

Why go to all this trouble?   

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I am thinking the money was part of 2013/2014 and 2015 and Auditor General has some report somewhere definitely.

Somewhere where?    When you wrote "Budget controller are okay with it. The same with Auditor General.", what specifically were you referring to?    I.e. where can we find the AG's claimed OK?

The closest he comes to okaying is when he does not qualify his report because he sees the money in the offshore account. 

And this money never makes it to the consolidated fund; treasury is not even disputing that.  Instead they are making strawman arguments around it.  If anything they seem comfortable with accusations that focus on this illegality.

If this money never hits the consolidated account, then how is it included in the treasury's accounting? seems to be part of Ndii's beef.

[RV Pundit]

What sort of logic is that. Auditor general has okayed EuroBond by default if he has not found any queries. I am assuming we already have done audit report for 2013/2014...at the very least the budget controller has confirmed receipt of money..so has IMF/WB..and anybody credible.All we have from the opposing end is nonsensical articles by Dr Ndii and equally confusing ones from Raila.

Parliament made the budget. Treasury job was clear. Fund that budget. Mobilise resources through domestic tbills/tbonds/eurobonds/grants/bilateral loans/multilateral loans. It not TREASURY role to answer which projects were executed by which ministry. All treasury cares for are budget lines....as okayed by the budget controller..and money goes there..if it stolen..or lies idle...Rotich doesn't know. All here knows...as far as IFMIS...this budget line xyz was given a green light by Adhiambo..and money was wired..when and if available.

The best Rotich can tell us is what each ministry received from treasury, what was budgeted for (Adhiambo domain) and whether it was used is probably Ouko's job.

[MOON Ki]

What sort of logic is that. Auditor general has okayed EuroBond by default if he has not found any queries. I am assuming we already have done audit report for 2013/2014...

But most of the expenditure of that money took place in 2014/2015, and most of the questions are to do with what happened in that year.   

at the very least the budget controller has confirmed receipt of money..so has IMF/WB..and anybody credible.

As far as I can tell, what they have said is that Kenya got the money.  Nobody is disputing that; it all went into Kenyan accounts at JP Morgan Chase and Citibank.    I am not aware that they have said anything about where the money then went.   Do you have any pointers?

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

As far as I can tell, what they have said is that Kenya got the money.  Nobody is disputing that; it all went into Kenyan accounts at JP Morgan Chase and Citibank.    I am not aware that they have said anything about where the money then went.   Do you have any pointers?

Yep.  And finally into an offshore account whose number Henry Rotich keeps sharing.  And it is NOT the consolidated fund.  Rotich is saying without batting an eye, that this money moves from that account to the line ministries without passing through the consolidated fund.  Which is unconstitutional.

I think this posture serves him well.  It is audacious such that people are left thinking that the only crime is bypassing the law, rather than a potential mega-heist.  Because Ndii is saying that they also raised a similar amount from local borrowing but it is not fully accounted for.

[RV Pundit]

I think you're confusing issues here. Money meant to repay 600M USD syndicated commercial loan that Raila and Kibaki borrowed to finance 2013 election (mainly the canadian thud technology that misfired) was wired into Kenya's offshore account. The reason..to save Kenya foreign exchange losses..otherwise the money would have had to be wired to kenya and back to the group of banks who syndicated the commercial loan. Rotich there deserve credit for prudently managing our finance and saving us money. Budget Controller initially raised ruckus but finally okayed this...also public finance mgt act was amended to allow for this.

The rest of the money was wired in several transactions to consolidated account held at CBK.

The money was used as intended in Eurobond prospectus..to retire the more expensive commercial loan of 600M USD and for budgetary support. Some countries borrow for specific projects..but kenya didn't. The money therefore was not ring fenced.

Dr Ndii rambling is not evidence that Kenya gov borrowed 250B domestically. The correct position is that Kenya gov reduced borrowing significantly to 140B. If Dr Ndii knows who lend the gov 250B that year...maybe he can tell us....normally banks, insurance, pension funds account for nearly 80% of that money..and he can go digging around their balance sheet to see if they bought as much treasury bills and bonds that year...to corroborate his laughable attempt to confuse the public.

It also easy to check CBK/treasury tbills/tbonds floated that that year. Domestic borrowing is not a secret.

Yep.  And finally into an offshore account whose number Henry Rotich keeps sharing.  And it is NOT the consolidated fund.  Rotich is saying without batting an eye, that this money moves from that account to the line ministries without passing through the consolidated fund.  Which is unconstitutional.

I think this posture serves him well.  It is audacious such that people are left thinking that the only crime is bypassing the law, rather than a potential mega-heist.  Because Ndii is saying that they also raised a similar amount from local borrowing but it is not fully accounted for.

[RV Pundit]

Raila will not appear before PAC after all. He was just running his mouth.
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/-/1056/3042716/-/qkuaqhz/-/index.html