If Nigeria and South Africa make 50% of Africa's GDP

[Globalcitizen12]

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[RV Pundit]

Interesting. I doubt very much that TZ will overtake kenya soon. Apart from the thriving mining sector (which is susceptible to world commodity prices boom n burst), I think Kenya has far more advanced and diversified economy.Then you have exchange rate..TZ has nothing on Kshs..1ksh is equivalent to 21 TZ shs.

[Globalcitizen12]

Yes Tanzania does rely on commodities a lot. I wonder at what level is agriculture contributing to their growth. Tanzania too is very protectionist to of their market. The only companies getting a free pass are SA companies. I am surprised at how poor rural Tanzania is. Gold price and other minerals may have helped this growth. The discovery of Natural Gas reserves may be a game changer in terms of energy. I think this discovery may be what propels Tanzania past Kenya. Kenya needs commercially viable cheap Natural GAS find ASAP for domestic use.

I think we ought to look at the indicators and do a comparative analysis eg what is the manufacturing growth etc.


I am been hearing a lot of agri-industrilization talks in Nigeria. There is a movement that was heralded by Obasanjo to industrialize using Agriculture. I wonder how big this movement is and how viable. I have read about a few governors who are investing serious money on food processing plants and commercial farming. If this happens Nigeria may finally be able to escape the oil curse and diversify her economy.

Kenya needs to allocate 15 to 20 percent to agriculture. Continue protecting the market offering subsidies to be competitive and explore large scale farming.

[RV Pundit]

Yes, a comparative analysis on the kenya and TZ fundamentals will go along way to understanding the problem. As of now, what I know has been working in TZ is minning and tourism (mostly due to mess we had here in kenya). What is working in kenya...the service sector is near world class (financial services, ict)...and the retail & wholesale sector is becoming formalized (supermarkets+malls) and is now second to south africa...and we are starting to pour a lot of cement (real estate).

Yes Africa has a lot to gain from agriculture and whole value chain. There is a lot of room for growth..basics such as fertilizers (which incidentally is plentiful in Morroco)...should be pursue together with value chain stuff.

Yes Tanzania does rely on commodities a lot. I wonder at what level is agriculture contributing to their growth. Tanzania too is very protectionist to of their market. The only companies getting a free pass are SA companies. I am surprised at how poor rural Tanzania is. Gold price and other minerals may have helped this growth. The discovery of Natural Gas reserves may be a game changer in terms of energy. I think this discovery may be what propels Tanzania past Kenya. Kenya needs commercially viable cheap Natural GAS find ASAP for domestic use.

I think we ought to look at the indicators and do a comparative analysis eg what is the manufacturing growth etc.


I am been hearing a lot of agri-industrilization talks in Nigeria. There is a movement that was heralded by Obasanjo to industrialize using Agriculture. I wonder how big this movement is and how viable. I have read about a few governors who are investing serious money on food processing plants and commercial farming. If this happens Nigeria may finally be able to escape the oil curse and diversify her economy.

Kenya needs to allocate 15 to 20 percent to agriculture. Continue protecting the market offering subsidies to be competitive and explore large scale farming.

[Empedocles]

Yes, a comparative analysis on the kenya and TZ fundamentals will go along way to understanding the problem. As of now, what I know has been working in TZ is minning and tourism (mostly due to mess we had here in kenya). What is working in kenya...the service sector is near world class (financial services, ict)...and the retail & wholesale sector is becoming formalized (supermarkets+malls) and is now second to south africa...and we are starting to pour a lot of cement (real estate).

Yes Africa has a lot to gain from agriculture and whole value chain. There is a lot of room for growth..basics such as fertilizers (which incidentally is plentiful in Morroco)...should be pursue together with value chain stuff.

Maybe you should have a look at this Credit Suisse report:  http://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/index.cfm?fileid=C26E3824-E868-56E0-CCA04D4BB9B9ADD5 and this: http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/31/africas-boom-is-over/

Things are, unfortunately, not as rosy as they were hyped.

[RV Pundit]

Sub-sahara is expected to grow at world leading 4.5% if am not wrong. Africa rise is irreversible.You cannot look at one indicator (industralization/manufacturing) and ignore the many other positives indicators that show Africa rise is for real..from improving governaces, less wars, more educated folks, more healthy folks, more folks with access to modern banking, nearly everyone with access to mobile and ICT...e.t.c and dismiss all that...by claiming Africa growth is entirely financed by "oil and mineral boom"....while all countries in Africa with impressive growth..from Ethiopia to Kenya...are growing without any of that.

Maybe you should have a look at this Credit Suisse report:  http://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/index.cfm?fileid=C26E3824-E868-56E0-CCA04D4BB9B9ADD5 and this: http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/31/africas-boom-is-over/

Things are, unfortunately, not as rosy as they were hyped.

[Empedocles]

Sub-sahara is expected to grow at world leading 4.5% if am not wrong. Africa rise is irreversible.You cannot look at one indicator (industralization/manufacturing) and ignore the many other positives indicators that show Africa rise is for real..from improving governaces, less wars, more educated folks, more healthy folks, more folks with access to modern banking, nearly everyone with access to mobile and ICT...e.t.c and dismiss all that...by claiming Africa growth is entirely financed by "oil and mineral boom"....while all countries in Africa with impressive growth..from Ethiopia to Kenya...are growing without any of that.

So what is financing Africa's growth?

[RV Pundit]

More populous,more peaceful, more healthier, more educated,more youthful, more urbane Africans who are better connected and integrated to the world economy.You cannot beat that.

So what is financing Africa's growth?

[Empedocles]

More populous,more peaceful, more healthier, more educated,more youthful, more urbane Africans who are better connected and integrated to the world economy.You cannot beat that.

So how does a "More populous,more peaceful, more healthier, more educated,more youthful, more urbane Africans who are better connected and integrated to the world economy" finance Africa's growth?

Whence does Africa derive the financing to drive this growth?

[Globalcitizen12]

pundit is saying that consumer spending is propelling African growth which is very correct especially when it comes to service industries, Technology and value addition in agriculture and retail

[MOON Ki]

Starting with the economics, from the Financial Times (Oct 2015):

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/93d5c572-7bf6-11e5-a1fe-567b37f80b64.html#axzz3wfdul2BC

Beyond economics:

Africa Rising? Tell that to the millions still trapped in poverty

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/23/opinions/africa-rising-narrative-poverty-chude-jideonwo/index.html

See also:
- http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/07/africa-economy-rising-growth
- https://ke.boell.org/2014/03/04/africa-rising-think-again
- etc.

From the World Bank:

In 1990, East Asia accounted for half of the global poor, whereas some 15 percent lived in in Sub-Saharan Africa; by 2015 forecasts, this is almost exactly reversed: Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for half of the global poor, with some 12 percent living in East Asia.

According to the detailed figures---current and projections---Africa is well on its way to corning the "market" on extremely poor people.    Here are World Bank figures up to 2012 (numbers are in millions):

East Asia & Pacific:    1990 - 995.5,  2012 - 147.2
South Asia:               1990 - 574.6,  2012 - 309.2
Sub-Saharan Africa:  1990 - 287.6,  2012 - 388.8       

One sometimes sees an excited announcement to the effect that some American company has opened yet another junk-food place somewhere in Africa.   This is touted as proof that Africa is rising, supposedly because there is now a growing "middle class".    What such statements omit is that while the numbers in the "middle class" might indeed be growing, so are the numbers in the "lower ranks".   And the latter is likely to be growing factor because that's where "reckless" reproduction takes place.

Simply looking at economic growth, junk-food joints, etc. is not very helpful.   One needs to also look at the relative population growth, how the economic growth is put to good use, etc. 

Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Liberian President:

Africa's economy has grown at more than 5% annually over the past decade -- some of the highest economic growth in the world -- leading many to use the phrase of "Africa Rising" when describing its countries. However, a country's economic growth does not always lead to development or improvement for its poorest citizens.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/16/world/africa/africa-rising-invest-girls-johnson-sirleaf/


Taking just food, which is as basic as one can get, the Global Nutrition Report just came out.    On the Africa that is "rising", it has this:

the scale of malnutrition in Africa is staggering:

- 58 million children under age five are too short for their age (stunted)
- 13.9 million weigh too little for their height (wasted)
- 10.3 million are overweight. None of these children are growing healthily
- 163.6 million children and women of reproductive age are anemic
- 220 million people are estimated to be calorie deficient.

13 countries in Africa are having to manage serious levels of stunting in children under 5 or anemia in women of reproductive age and adult overweight. In many African countries, only a minority of children are growing healthily. In Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, and Nigeria, for example, the percentage of children under 5 who are not stunted or wasted ranges between 43 and 48 percent.

 

[RV Pundit]

Africa or to be specific sub-sahara economy is financed by all sorts of sectors...some countries depend on oil, minerals, tea, cocoa, coffee..while others depend on tourism, service sector...but definitely Africa growth is too broad based to be dismissed with the failing oil and commodities prices. Ethiopia for example will grow at 10% plus this year. On average despite the global gloom Africa will still registers 4.2%...despite South Africa and Nigeria facing economic troubles.

So how does a "More populous,more peaceful, more healthier, more educated,more youthful, more urbane Africans who are better connected and integrated to the world economy" finance Africa's growth?

Whence does Africa derive the financing to drive this growth?

[RV Pundit]

They are all sort of articles saying all sort of things esp on the internet. How about you tell us what you think...rather than bombarding us with all sort of links.

Starting with the economics, from the Financial Times (Oct 2015):

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/93d5c572-7bf6-11e5-a1fe-567b37f80b64.html#axzz3wfdul2BC

Beyond economics:

Africa Rising? Tell that to the millions still trapped in poverty

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/23/opinions/africa-rising-narrative-poverty-chude-jideonwo/index.html

See also:
- http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/07/africa-economy-rising-growth
- https://ke.boell.org/2014/03/04/africa-rising-think-again
- etc.

From the World Bank:

In 1990, East Asia accounted for half of the global poor, whereas some 15 percent lived in in Sub-Saharan Africa; by 2015 forecasts, this is almost exactly reversed: Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for half of the global poor, with some 12 percent living in East Asia.

According to the detailed figures---current and projections---Africa is well on its way to corning the "market" on extremely poor people.    Here are World Bank figures up to 2012 (numbers are in millions):

East Asia & Pacific:    1990 - 995.5,  2012 - 147.2
South Asia:               1990 - 574.6,  2012 - 309.2
Sub-Saharan Africa:  1990 - 287.6,  2012 - 388.8       

One sometimes sees an excited announcement to the effect that some American company has opened yet another junk-food place somewhere in Africa.   This is touted as proof that Africa is rising, supposedly because there is now a growing "middle class".    What such statements omit is that while the numbers in the "middle class" might indeed be growing, so are the numbers in the "lower ranks".   And the latter is likely to be growing factor because that's where "reckless" reproduction takes place.

Simply looking at economic growth, junk-food joints, etc. is not very helpful.   One needs to also look at the relative population growth, how the economic growth is put to good use, etc. 

Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Liberian President:

Africa's economy has grown at more than 5% annually over the past decade -- some of the highest economic growth in the world -- leading many to use the phrase of "Africa Rising" when describing its countries. However, a country's economic growth does not always lead to development or improvement for its poorest citizens.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/16/world/africa/africa-rising-invest-girls-johnson-sirleaf/


Taking just food, which is as basic as one can get, the Global Nutrition Report just came out.    On the Africa that is "rising", it has this:

the scale of malnutrition in Africa is staggering:

- 58 million children under age five are too short for their age (stunted)
- 13.9 million weigh too little for their height (wasted)
- 10.3 million are overweight. None of these children are growing healthily
- 163.6 million children and women of reproductive age are anemic
- 220 million people are estimated to be calorie deficient.

13 countries in Africa are having to manage serious levels of stunting in children under 5 or anemia in women of reproductive age and adult overweight. In many African countries, only a minority of children are growing healthily. In Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, and Nigeria, for example, the percentage of children under 5 who are not stunted or wasted ranges between 43 and 48 percent.

 

[RV Pundit]

Here is Waiguru robust reply to the Dr Ndii. Great read.
http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/-/440808/3026576/-/9tkfl3/-/index.html

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Here is Waiguru robust reply to the Dr Ndii. Great read.
http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/-/440808/3026576/-/9tkfl3/-/index.html

She did not understand Ndii's article.  If light duties means regurgitating Jubilant talking points, what is Itumbi's job then?

[MOON Ki]

They are all sort of articles saying all sort of things esp on the internet. How about you tell us what you think...rather than bombarding us with all sort of links.

This clearly indicates what I think:

One sometimes sees an excited announcement to the effect that some American company has opened yet another junk-food place somewhere in Africa.   This is touted as proof that Africa is rising, supposedly because there is now a growing "middle class".    What such statements omit is that while the numbers in the "middle class" might indeed be growing, so are the numbers in the "lower ranks".   And the latter is likely to be growing factor because that's where "reckless" reproduction takes place.

Simply looking at economic growth, junk-food joints, etc. is not very helpful.   One needs to also look at the relative population growth, how the economic growth is put to good use, etc.

The links I provide are intended to help those who simply wish to maintain---and sometimes quite vigorously too---positions that have  nothing to do with the facts and the reality.   What I sometimes refer to as "oblivious determination".    I have often found it helpful (to such people) to provide  relevant information; I hope they are grateful.

[MOON Ki]

Ethiopia for example will grow at 10% plus this year.

And it has also launched its biggest beg-for-food campaign in decades.   An estimated 10 million people are in danger of starvation this year if "donors" don't do the needful.   (Looks like they do 1 million for each 1%!)

See anything wrong with that Empty-Stomach Rising picture?    That's my point.

[RV Pundit]

10% has the drought & it's effect factored...so what exactly are you saying? That a rising country should never experience natural disasters? That rising country should never beg for assistance? but should divert all the money that should go probably to developing railway lines to buying food?

Ethiopia for example will grow at 10% plus this year.

And it has also launched its biggest beg-for-food campaign in decades.   An estimated 10 million people are in danger of starvation this year if "donors" don't do the needful.   (Looks like they do 1 million for each 1%!)

See anything wrong with that Empty-Stomach Rising picture?    That's my point.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

This article from the economist says efforts to fill the energy demand in Tz are stalling because Tanesco is the only company allowed to distribute electricity.  M-Kopa, the Kenyan company is meeting some of this demand.  But they cannot meet the requirements for industrialization.  Magufuli has his work cut out.

Generating power in Africa ought to be a good business. Africans tend to pay extraordinary prices for electricity. Businesses rely on dirty and expensive diesel generators. Tanzanian mines are powered by generators burning diesel that has been trucked across the country; a kilowatt-hour can cost as much as $1. Grid power at an American mine, by way of comparison, costs less than a tenth as much.SonGas

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21685504-electrification-plans-are-stalling-because-distributors-wont-pay-power-hungry