Jubilee is going for broke. There is no example of a government that has started disorder and benefited from it. Mugabe had to reign in Hitler Hunzvi or he would have lost the country. He lost the narrative and the Land Reform got derailed and served BBC and the whites quite well.
Habyarimana became a victim of his own militia and his people lost the land.
The way I see it - and let Pundit correct me - arming Kikuyus and inciting them to violence will ultimately explode in RV and perhaps the slums of Nairobi. Jubilee has the RV vote already and I see nothing they would gain by instigating chaos over there.
They may want to use violence in Kisii exploiting clanism. I still see them losing. The real target - Nyanza will remain out of their reach. If it catches on in Western, it is emigre Kikuyus who will suffer.
In the meantime, Al Shabaab would get an unwanted relief as KDF is diverted to fight tribal wars.
However you look at it, Jubilee loses. The best outcome would be a military coup - which is the usual logical end of any government inspired chaos.
I know some will point at Moi. His was to engineer mini "clashes" directed at disenfranchising emigre Kikuyus. Unless Uhuru knows of Luo enclaves he wishes to disenfranchise, this is a stupid wasteful self inflicted gun shot in the foot.