Can/Should CORD boycott 2017?

[MOON Ki]

Going by what is happening in ICC; This case will not conclude anytime before 2020. I expect the remaining six month to be a fight about inclusion or exclusion of previous statements (definitely either side will appeal); then early next year the judges will rule on whether Ruto has a case to answer.

And if Ruto has a case to answer....that is another 3-4 yrs circus where Ruto get to summon 50 witnesses.

So earliest we can conclude ICC matters is many years from now.

On the basis of how things have gone so far, my own random guess is that Ruto's case will essentially be done by the end of next year, even if some odd appeal drags on past that.  And in the latter case, it is hard to see anything going past 2017.

The one thing I am certain is that Ruto will not be convicted of anything.  To that extent, I am astonished by people who write/talk about the "possible" outcomes of his trial.     

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Election boycotts never really work. The state simply appoints MPs and the President is elected unopposed or against weak candidates sponsored by the state.

There is a choice: Win the referendum and lose the election or forgo the referendum and win the elections. However I feel it is a wrong strategy. If CORD manages to mobilize international resources it can force Jubilee to spend some of its enormous war chest on OKOA so that there is less for the elections in 2017. Beating Uhuru with so much dirty money would be a hard bargain. We just hope the money is so much that the aides compete in siphoning it as they did to Moi in 2002

The African incumbent does not lose close elections.  They have wasted almost 2 years on side issues instead of ensuring the systems that failed have been fixed and thoroughly tested.  No sign that they are about to change whatever strategy it is they have.

[RV Pundit]

So you expect Ruto to win No Case to answer. That is very unlikely and unprecedented. The odds are still stack against them until they call their witnesses. They've been given limited pages to refute the evidence. Of course Bensauda has to deal with Beyond Reasonable doubt standard but unless Bensauda did that poorly in those closed sessions too...I'd expect she managed to get a few credible witnesses to convince the judges to go full trial.

The way I see....this year is the last witness (the guy who want the whole clan relocated to Netherland--Netherland cannot even grant him alone asylum) has to somehow testify and then this current issues..has to be canvased all the way to appeal chamber. Appeal chamber will take 3-6 months.

Early next year is when we will have verdict on whether Sang and or Ruto have a case to answer.

Once they do. Then the whole shebang begin. First will be discovery. Disclosure. That may take six months. Then defense witnesses have to appear one by one....be flown to ICC..hitches and glitches...earliest this can go on will be 2-3 yrs. Bensauda presented 42 witness..Ruto will present his 45..Sang his 45...all have to be heard....this circus will take forever.

This thing is going beyond 2020.

On the basis of how things have gone so far, my own random guess is that Ruto's case will essentially be done by the end of next year, even if some odd appeal drags on past that.  And in the latter case, it is hard to see anything going past 2017.

The one thing I am certain is that Ruto will not be convicted of anything.  To that extent, I am astonished by people who write/talk about the "possible" outcomes of his trial.     

[vooke]

The African incumbent does not lose close elections.  They have wasted almost 2 years on side issues instead of ensuring the systems that failed have been fixed and thoroughly tested.  No sign that they are about to change whatever strategy it is they have.

Excellent qualifier

[MOON Ki]

So you expect Ruto to win No Case to answer. That is very unlikely and unprecedented.

It is possible, but very unlikely.    It is a near-impossible approach, and especially so because the normal ICC processes do not even recognize such a notion (even though it would be routine elsewhere).   But:

* If you go back to when the idea first came up, it was clear that the judges could not dismiss it out of hand after so many "critical" witnesses had gone AWOL.

* Khan too knows that it is "very unlikely and unprecedented", but it works quite well for him:

- Apart from the hefty per-hour fees, Ruto is paying a hefty retainer. QC stuff.  And very hefty after the "Muthaura Success".

- On top of that, he will be charging "brief fees" to file the motion.  Those will not be less than for the start of trial, and my reasonable guess is $1 million+.   Regardless of the outcome.

(Oh, as lead counsel, the ICC regulations require that he maintain a full & proper residence at The Hague during the trial, so as to be at the ready service of his client.   I don't imagine that he's squatting, but I am certain as to who's paying.)

* On the part of the judges,  I think it would be very difficult to "justify" a "no case to answer", given the general emphasis on victims.    That "attitude" explains the long-drawn-out death of Uhuru's case.

They've been given limited pages to refute the evidence.

A couple of months ago, The Star had a story with the headline "40 pages to fight for his life" or something like that.   That sort of hyperbole might have a slight place once the Defense case starts, but not at this point.   

The way I see....this year is the last witness (the guy who want the whole clan relocated to Netherland--Netherland cannot even grant him alone asylum) has to somehow testify and then this current issues..has to be canvased all the way to appeal chamber. Appeal chamber will take 3-6 months.

That guy's testimony is only a small part of the puzzle; and, in any case, they are pretty much done with him.    If you look at the main reason that the OTP is persisting with these "funny" witnesses, the most solid link is one Walter Barasa.   But it has already been agreed within Mutunga's Kingdom that said fellow is not going anywhere...as long as there's some chicken I guess. 

Ruto will present his 45..Sang his 45...all have to be heard....this circus will take forever.

This thing is going beyond 2020.

I don't see that many witnesses or so much time.   As I see it, Ruto will go free; and I am even prepared to take wagers on that.   But there is a lot of good eating to be done in claiming to have helped set him free, so I expect plenty of noise to that end.   

Anyways ....

If there is ever any justice for the PEV victims, it looks like it will have to be in the traditional way.   Ironically, that fits it quite well with what the AU would have: African solutions for African problems.  

[Reticent Solipsist]

What I fail to grasp is CORD's - read Raila - proclivity to throw barbs at DP Ruto while nary going after president Uhuru thereby elevating the president to the status of an above the fray statesman who doesn't stoop to political brickbats. When's the last time you heard Republicans attack VP Biden?

CORD lacks a game plan and will lose the 2017 elections unless they come up with something novel or dramatic that the other side fails to anticipate. And Raila for President 2017 just won't cut it.

You said it.   It is very hard to understand just what it is the CORD leadership thinks it's doing.    At this rate, what we should be discussing is the excuse they will give for defeat in 2017.

What I read in the dailies a while back is Rebrand(ing) Raila 2017 or something to that effect. Akin to alchemy

In other words, I don't think that any amount of rebranding can change this man's fortune(s) in 2017, hence the alchemy analogy.

I would say that in the period 1990 until, say, 2013 Raila stood head and shoulders above all others in influencing the direction and trend of the politics of Kenya. But now it seems that he's running on empty; outflanked at every turn by more astute political players.

That said, history will remember him as the guy who won your 2007 pols by 650,000 votes, only to have the grinch of Othaya snatch his (and Ruto's) hard won victory from him at the very last minute.

[RV Pundit]

You seem to have beef with Karim Khan. I think he is pretty good lawyer and deserve to earn top dollar. Ruto is a very rich guy and he isn't complaining about legal fees. In the meantime this circus is also good for Katwa Kigen; ICC is picking his tabs.

The case against Baraza will eventually start....Baraza will go all the way to Supreme Court..but eventually he will get shipped to Netherland..unless he dies or disappears into a country like Sudan.

Baraza case will fare worse...although it is article 75 (admin of justice)...Baraza might turn out an innocent journalist...that ICC desperado wanted to pin for their failures.

So you expect Ruto to win No Case to answer. That is very unlikely and unprecedented.

It is possible, but very unlikely.    It is a near-impossible approach, and especially so because the normal ICC processes do not even recognize such a notion (even though it would be routine elsewhere).   But:

* If you go back to when the idea first came up, it was clear that the judges could not dismiss it out of hand after so many "critical" witnesses had gone AWOL.

* Khan too knows that it is "very unlikely and unprecedented", but it works quite well for him:

- Apart from the hefty per-hour fees, Ruto is paying a hefty retainer. QC stuff.  And very hefty after the "Muthaura Success".

- On top of that, he will be charging "brief fees" to file the motion.  Those will not be less than for the start of trial, and my reasonable guess is $1 million+.   Regardless of the outcome.

(Oh, as lead counsel, the ICC regulations require that he maintain a full & proper residence at The Hague during the trial, so as to be at the ready service of his client.   I don't imagine that he's squatting, but I am certain as to who's paying.)

* On the part of the judges,  I think it would be very difficult to "justify" a "no case to answer", given the general emphasis on victims.    That "attitude" explains the long-drawn-out death of Uhuru's case.

They've been given limited pages to refute the evidence.

A couple of months ago, The Star had a story with the headline "40 pages to fight for his life" or something like that.   That sort of hyperbole might have a slight place once the Defense case starts, but not at this point.   

The way I see....this year is the last witness (the guy who want the whole clan relocated to Netherland--Netherland cannot even grant him alone asylum) has to somehow testify and then this current issues..has to be canvased all the way to appeal chamber. Appeal chamber will take 3-6 months.

That guy's testimony is only a small part of the puzzle; and, in any case, they are pretty much done with him.    If you look at the main reason that the OTP is persisting with these "funny" witnesses, the most solid link is one Walter Barasa.   But it has already been agreed within Mutunga's Kingdom that said fellow is not going anywhere...as long as there's some chicken I guess. 

Ruto will present his 45..Sang his 45...all have to be heard....this circus will take forever.

This thing is going beyond 2020.

I don't see that many witnesses or so much time.   As I see it, Ruto will go free; and I am even prepared to take wagers on that.   But there is a lot of good eating to be done in claiming to have helped set him free, so I expect plenty of noise to that end.   

Anyways ....

If there is ever any justice for the PEV victims, it looks like it will have to be in the traditional way.   Ironically, that fits it quite well with what the AU would have: African solutions for African problems.  

[Pajero]

The factors that always come in play in kenyan elections are
1.Coalition/tribal arrangement-tyranny of numbers/tribes
2.Voter turnout
3.Govt machinery/NIS/IIEBC-rigging

[Reticent Solipsist]

What I fail to grasp is CORD's - read Raila - proclivity to throw barbs at DP Ruto while nary going after president Uhuru thereby elevating the president to the status of an above the fray statesman who doesn't stoop to political brickbats. When's the last time you heard Republicans attack VP Biden?

CORD lacks a game plan and will lose the 2017 elections unless they come up with something novel or dramatic that the other side fails to anticipate. And Raila for President 2017 just won't cut it.

CORD sometimes appear torn between antagonizing Uhuruto so Ruto can join them (by repeatedly reminding him that he is Ouru's poodle) and seething in their own bitterness (constantly depicting him as corrupt and incapable of leading)over being denied the ultimate prize of SH. Two conflicting goals. Attack him too much and he will never join you. Warm up to him and you lose the much needed legitimacy of airing Jubirlee excesses

You hit the nail on the head. By his incessantly obsessive attacks on Ruto, Raila has shown that he is a terrible poker player in my opinion, and I would aver that in Ruto's political calculus, he will do his utmost to support Uhuru 2017 fearing or anticipating what a vindictive Raila would do to him were Raila to ascend to power -- a snowball chance in hell -- barring a Boko Haram like insurgency in Kenya.

The question is what happens to the Uhuru-Ruto bonhomie as the case at the ICC drags on? Is Uhuru thinking of a plan B in the event that the ICC nabs his deputy?

As this question posed a couple of months ago, what is Uhuru's game plan going forward?

[RV Pundit]

Ruto case will not conclude until 2020 in the earliest. The prosecution case has concluded with a few (11) issues that appeal chambers need to sort out. That will mean early 2016; the verdict of "case to answer" will be delivered. Either party will appeal. And after that appeal....and if the defence is defeated..then they get a chance to call...50-60 witnesses...now Sang 50-60 witness will take 2yrs (each witness on average takes 2-3 days on the witnesss box)..Ruto 50-60 witnesses another 2yrs...this case will not conclude anytime soon.

The very earliest this case will conclude in my opinion is 2020....2017/2018..is when the bulk of defense witnesses will be heard.

That just the nature of a very complex case..where one is accused of crimes of many others.

As this question posed a couple of months ago, what is Uhuru's game plan going forward?