Can/Should CORD boycott 2017?

[vooke]

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Dikembe thinks that is suicidal

And an interesting comment here;

[Omollo]

Election boycotts never really work. The state simply appoints MPs and the President is elected unopposed or against weak candidates sponsored by the state.

There is a choice: Win the referendum and lose the election or forgo the referendum and win the elections. However I feel it is a wrong strategy. If CORD manages to mobilize international resources it can force Jubilee to spend some of its enormous war chest on OKOA so that there is less for the elections in 2017. Beating Uhuru with so much dirty money would be a hard bargain. We just hope the money is so much that the aides compete in siphoning it as they did to Moi in 2002

[MOON Ki]

There is a choice: Win the referendum and lose the election or forgo the referendum and win the elections.

I take it that the referendum is OKOA Kenya.   I have asked quite a few CORD supporters this question: What exactly is this referendum about?   What are the key questions that people would be "voting" on?  I have yet to get a clear answer.  Or any kind of reasonable answer.

All of which leads to another question: how can so much hang on something that hardly anybody knows anything about?

If CORD manages to mobilize international resources it can force Jubilee to spend some of its enormous war chest on OKOA so that there is less for the elections in 2017.

Those with the "international resources" will, I imagine, first ask what OKOA is about before they pull out the cheque book.   For its part, I don't see Jubilee (if sensible people are in charge) wasting money on countering an OKOA that is going nowhere.

There is a thread on which Pundit summed it up quite well: Raila to forget the OKOAring and instead focus on what wins elections, i.e. (a) getting voters to register and (b) getting registered voters to turn out to vote.    For whatever reason, those who lead CORD or advise the CORD leadership are unable or unwilling to focus on those.   

The Uhuruto government is busy dishing out goodies---e.g. cheap electricity vs. okoa something---so Raila and CORD are already 10 metres behind the starting line.   So why they are unable to focus on what needs to be done is a mystery.

Anyways ... back to the subject at hand: Boycotting would be a waste of time etc., as Omollo succinctly explains.   But perhaps they should "sit out" this one, because they---to put it quite simply---don't seem hungry enough for a victory.     There is no need for Jubilee/JAP to spend money or effort countering OKOA. Nor is there any need to rig anything.  CORD right now simply doesn't have it.  What's more, there is not the slightest inclination towards change.   A pity.   A real pity.

[Omollo]

MoonKi

There is nothing wrong with focusing on OKOA to help win the 2017 elections. People vote in both. OKOA could serve as a way of galvanizing voter registration and as I said, would force Jubilee to spend money. However Jubilee has invested a lot in sabotaging the movement at County level. The dissolution of Makueni is guaranteed if OKOA keeps up. That will deny the referendum the requisite approval by county assemblies.

My fear is that CORD would use all the ammunition on the referendum as we did in 2005 and by 2017 we would suffer a fatal lethargic spasm that would allow Jubilee to swim to victory.

On goodies: Kenyans have since experienced goodies fatigue. Handing out money is no longer guarantees victory in elections as Waititu learned.

CORD will have to play it tough and rough. Raila has got the message that if he stands in the way, he will be swept aside. We are slowly but surely sending the message that it will not be business as usual the day after electoral fraud.

[MOON Ki]

There is nothing wrong with focusing on OKOA to help win the 2017 elections. People vote in both.

But what exactly is OKOA about?   What will people be voting for in that?  A referendum about nothing strikes me as very funny business, and I don't understand why you belief it will force Jubilee to do anything or galvanize voter registration.

[Omollo]

I am willing to help you understand except I doubt that you are driven by the desire to know and least of all any craving arising from genuine ignorance.

There is nothing wrong with focusing on OKOA to help win the 2017 elections. People vote in both.

But what exactly is OKOA about?   What will people be voting for in that?  A referendum about nothing strikes me as very funny business, and I don't understand why you belief it will force Jubilee to do anything or galvanize voter registration.

[MOON Ki]

I am willing to help you understand except I doubt that you are driven by the desire to know and least of all any craving arising from genuine ignorance.
 

I am driven by genuine ignorance, and I have asked elsewhere and not got much.   I have also tried other sources, such as this one

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Okoa-Kenya-Movement/706293012741275

but I am still unclear as to what the referendum is about.

So, please go ahead.   Maybe just the main questions(s) of the referendum will do.  Even if you think an explanation would be wasted on me, some other people might find it helpful.

Oh, under the Face Book "About" at the above, link one is directed to this website:

http://www.okoakenya.com/

which is ????????

[Omollo]

http://omollosview.com/blog/2014/09/03/the-referendum-issues/

[RV Pundit]

Omollo,
Looking at the timelines..it seem there won't be time to do referendum except as part of elections. We have exactly 2 yrs to 2017 August Elections. By the time IEBC goes through verification and then bill is debated in parliament..it will be in end of 2016. Then for the same to be taken through counties. Referendum if it happens will be included as part of election. And that is probably financially prudent.

CORD need to identify issues related to reforming IEBC and Supreme court as seperate from other issues...and pursue a parliamentary approval...for sole purpose of ensuring free and fair referendum and election of 2017.

I think Jubilee will accept some of reforms..like increasing to a month the time for supreme court to make judgement.

Also most of IEBC commissioner tenure will elapse before 2017...making some CORD grudges against Chicken Ali and others moot.

Uhuru doesn't strike me as someone who want to play rough....I think CORD should concentrate on fair process for selecting the next commissioners...and prepare well for duel in 2yrs time.

[Omollo]

Uhuru is often well meaning until somebody comes and changes his mind. He was for talks with Raila - something that instantly took the air out of the balloon. I have to confess I was shocked. It was a potential knockout move for us. He was going to walk away with half of CORD!

Then in amazing grace, he did exactly what would help prop up CORD and rescue us from the abyss. Suddenly the dead and buried opposition reeling from two successive defeats was rolling again and Jubilee were scrambling breaking laws and their principles as they shut down live TV coverage, jammed FM stations and deployed troops to prevent huge turnouts.

I agree he is well intentioned but then he has not overcome those trying to control him. I will know if he has become nearly his own man when he declines to accede to Karangi becoming a super minister.

That said, we have our own mistakes.

The biggest blunder that we made is to disparage Martha Karua when she was minister for Justice. That lady was fair to the hilt. When she wanted to complete the process of turning the IPPG in to a law, she was badly treated and abandoned the idea. In 2007 though she was openly taunting us for not following through. I felt she was right but was at the same time angry that she had not tried harder. Except that she needed not help the opposition.

Now what you are saying is real, true, practical and to the point.

Let me be very clear: If Uhuru wins the elections freely and fairly in a contest that I see was every inch just, with no smell or tincture of fraud, dishonesty etc.. I would support him, even while disagreeing with some of the policies and practices including blatant tribalism. That is because my intention has always been to see Kenya turn in to a modern democracy where a thriving private sector takes the pressure of the craving for public jobs as it is in some of the countries we live in.

 

Omollo,
Looking at the timelines..it seem there won't be time to do referendum except as part of elections. We have exactly 2 yrs to 2017 August Elections. By the time IEBC goes through verification and then bill is debated in parliament..it will be in end of 2016. Then for the same to be taken through counties. Referendum if it happens will be included as part of election. And that is probably financially prudent.

CORD need to identify issues related to reforming IEBC and Supreme court as seperate from other issues...and pursue a parliamentary approval...for sole purpose of ensuring free and fair referendum and election of 2017.

I think Jubilee will accept some of reforms..like increasing to a month the time for supreme court to make judgement.

Also most of IEBC commissioner tenure will elapse before 2017...making some CORD grudges against Chicken Ali and others moot.

Uhuru doesn't strike me as someone who want to play rough....I think CORD should concentrate on fair process for selecting the next commissioners...and prepare well for duel in 2yrs time.

[Reticent Solipsist]

What I fail to grasp is CORD's - read Raila - proclivity to throw barbs at DP Ruto while nary going after president Uhuru thereby elevating the president to the status of an above the fray statesman who doesn't stoop to political brickbats. When's the last time you heard Republicans attack VP Biden?

CORD lacks a game plan and will lose the 2017 elections unless they come up with something novel or dramatic that the other side fails to anticipate. And Raila for President 2017 just won't cut it.

[RV Pundit]

Yes it either deliberate from Ruto or he just can't stand Raila but in their endless fights; Uhuru manages to stay above the fray. If I was Uhuru, I'll encourage Ruto to keep Raila busy and distracted.

What I fail to grasp is CORD's - read Raila - proclivity to throw barbs at DP Ruto while nary going after president Uhuru thereby elevating the president to the status of an above the fray statesman who doesn't stoop to political brickbats. When's the last time you heard Republicans attack VP Biden?

CORD lacks a game plan and will lose the 2017 elections unless they come up with something novel or dramatic that the other side fails to anticipate. And Raila for President 2017 just won't cut it.

[vooke]

What I fail to grasp is CORD's - read Raila - proclivity to throw barbs at DP Ruto while nary going after president Uhuru thereby elevating the president to the status of an above the fray statesman who doesn't stoop to political brickbats. When's the last time you heard Republicans attack VP Biden?

CORD lacks a game plan and will lose the 2017 elections unless they come up with something novel or dramatic that the other side fails to anticipate. And Raila for President 2017 just won't cut it.

Why Rayirla is fixated on Ruto? If ever there was anybody other than him who cost him State House it is DPORK. Given Rayirla's life ambition is to lead this nation, he will never forgive him.

It would have been a tall order for Rayirla to keep Ruto happy for 5 years after denying him the coveted deputy PM seat so I don't blame him but that is exactly what denied him outright victory in 2013, and it makes 2017 a nightmare for him.

CORD sometimes appear torn between antagonizing Uhuruto so Ruto can join them (by repeatedly reminding him that he is Ouru's poodle) and seething in their own bitterness (constantly depicting him as corrupt and incapable of leading)over being denied the ultimate prize of SH. Two conflicting goals. Attack him too much and he will never join you. Warm up to him and you lose the much needed legitimacy of airing Jubirlee excesses

[Omollo]

It is bad chemistry. It is similar to what Moi went through with Leakey. He could forget other people - even Matiba - but not Leakey!

Raila has been cautioned about going after Ruto but he just can't help himself. I noticed this quite early. I think it started in their brief period in KANU. They had fights that led to the breakup of KANU.May be Raila blames Ruto for raining on his party with Moi, I don't know but want to believe Pundit, that it is Gideon who happened.

I also suspect that Raila's wife may not exactly like Ruto and sometime these things count. In the case of Kibaki, Lucy genuinely respected Raila and Raila pandered to her. Things tended to eventually go well. Lucy stopped Muthaura and the shock gave him a much deserved rest in South Africa. Raila and Kibaki have never had it so nice when Muthaura was away.

What I fail to grasp is CORD's - read Raila - proclivity to throw barbs at DP Ruto while nary going after president Uhuru thereby elevating the president to the status of an above the fray statesman who doesn't stoop to political brickbats. When's the last time you heard Republicans attack VP Biden?

CORD lacks a game plan and will lose the 2017 elections unless they come up with something novel or dramatic that the other side fails to anticipate. And Raila for President 2017 just won't cut it.

[Bella]

I think its unfair to say it is Raila focussing on Ruto. It is Ruto that itches for goodies and is constantly involved in all these scams. Uhuru doesnt care to steal because his dada did all that, uhuru doesnt suffer from the same syndrome hustlers do in their temptations to steal, thats what I think. Personally, I'm convinced Ruto doesnt care about being President in the future. He probably figures his Gema friends will not vote for him once Uhuru is gone and has decided to focus on jengaing himself as best he can and getting rid of ICC, and then he's satisfied. That's what I think. You cant help but focus on Ruto if he keeps showing up in every pot.

[vooke]

It is bad chemistry. It is similar to what Moi went through with Leakey. He could forget other people - even Matiba - but not Leakey!

Raila has been cautioned about going after Ruto but he just can't help himself. I noticed this quite early. I think it started in their brief period in KANU. They had fights that led to the breakup of KANU.May be Raila blames Ruto for raining on his party with Moi, I don't know but want to believe Pundit, that it is Gideon who happened.

I also suspect that Raila's wife may not exactly like Ruto and sometime these things count. In the case of Kibaki, Lucy genuinely respected Raila and Raila pandered to her. Things tended to eventually go well. Lucy stopped Muthaura and the shock gave him a much deserved rest in South Africa. Raila and Kibaki have never had it so nice when Muthaura was away.

Yes Omorlo,
Bad chemistry. I can't read it beyond 2007 use and NARA dispose. I think whatever went down in KANU was not all that serious to last years.

About they wives, it's true they can exert crazy influence on men and hide it all from the public. Poor Lucy was cursed with discretion deficiency

[MOON Ki]

What I fail to grasp is CORD's - read Raila - proclivity to throw barbs at DP Ruto while nary going after president Uhuru thereby elevating the president to the status of an above the fray statesman who doesn't stoop to political brickbats. When's the last time you heard Republicans attack VP Biden?

CORD lacks a game plan and will lose the 2017 elections unless they come up with something novel or dramatic that the other side fails to anticipate. And Raila for President 2017 just won't cut it.

You said it.   It is very hard to understand just what it is the CORD leadership thinks it's doing.    At this rate, what we should be discussing is the excuse they will give for defeat in 2017.

[Reticent Solipsist]

What I fail to grasp is CORD's - read Raila - proclivity to throw barbs at DP Ruto while nary going after president Uhuru thereby elevating the president to the status of an above the fray statesman who doesn't stoop to political brickbats. When's the last time you heard Republicans attack VP Biden?

CORD lacks a game plan and will lose the 2017 elections unless they come up with something novel or dramatic that the other side fails to anticipate. And Raila for President 2017 just won't cut it.

CORD sometimes appear torn between antagonizing Uhuruto so Ruto can join them (by repeatedly reminding him that he is Ouru's poodle) and seething in their own bitterness (constantly depicting him as corrupt and incapable of leading)over being denied the ultimate prize of SH. Two conflicting goals. Attack him too much and he will never join you. Warm up to him and you lose the much needed legitimacy of airing Jubirlee excesses

You hit the nail on the head. By his incessantly obsessive attacks on Ruto, Raila has shown that he is a terrible poker player in my opinion, and I would aver that in Ruto's political calculus, he will do his utmost to support Uhuru 2017 fearing or anticipating what a vindictive Raila would do to him were Raila to ascend to power -- a snowball chance in hell -- barring a Boko Haram like insurgency in Kenya.

The question is what happens to the Uhuru-Ruto bonhomie as the case at the ICC drags on? Is Uhuru thinking of a plan B in the event that the ICC nabs his deputy?

[Reticent Solipsist]

What I fail to grasp is CORD's - read Raila - proclivity to throw barbs at DP Ruto while nary going after president Uhuru thereby elevating the president to the status of an above the fray statesman who doesn't stoop to political brickbats. When's the last time you heard Republicans attack VP Biden?

CORD lacks a game plan and will lose the 2017 elections unless they come up with something novel or dramatic that the other side fails to anticipate. And Raila for President 2017 just won't cut it.

You said it.   It is very hard to understand just what it is the CORD leadership thinks it's doing.    At this rate, what we should be discussing is the excuse they will give for defeat in 2017.

What I read in the dailies a while back is Rebrand(ing) Raila 2017 or something to that effect. Akin to alchemy.

[RV Pundit]

Going by what is happening in ICC; This case will not conclude anytime before 2020. I expect the remaining six month to be a fight about inclusion or exclusion of previous statements (definitely either side will appeal); then early next year the judges will rule on whether Ruto has a case to answer.

And if Ruto has a case to answer....that is another 3-4 yrs circus where Ruto get to summon 50 witnesses.

So earliest we can conclude ICC matters is many years from now.

ICC is not a factor for 2012 and anyone planning for it is being deluded.

The question is what happens to the Uhuru-Ruto bonhomie as the case at the ICC drags on? Is Uhuru thinking of a plan B in the event that the ICC nabs his deputy?