WSR slowly unraveling

[RV Pundit]

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[Kadudu]

The problem with Ruto is he thinks since he "finished" Raila politically, now he is the professor of politics.
The guy should learn to be humble and being caught doing shaddy deals with mashamba will come to haunt him come 2022. Those guys in Central now praising him will desert him faster than he can blink.

[RV Pundit]

It's either that (hubris or recklessness) or well repeat of history when Moi was facing similar trials in 1970s with Taita Towett and Seroney snipping at him. The way I see Ruto find himself in difficult position. As DP he is suppose to be loyal to the boss but yet he is boss in his own right with more than 80mps and huge political clout.

Ruto has chosen to be Moi (see no evil) when it comes to GEMA as opposed to ever-combative Raila. The guy has even handed 5 more years to Uhuru without as much as negotiation and has folded URP (which is seem super stupid when you consider he still rans to URP when he need to punish rebels) to form JAP.

This could pay off very handsomely like Moi 24 or end very badly. His life now depend on GEMA mm..or Uhuru (who also happens to owe Moi big time). That is not an enviable position when you're standing trial allegedly for killing,raping and displacing 0.5M Gema.

His strategy of unilateral disarmament seem a tad stupid if you ask me.

The problem with Ruto is he thinks since he "finished" Raila politically, now he is the professor of politics.
The guy should learn to be humble and being caught doing shaddy deals with mashamba will come to haunt him come 2022. Those guys in Central now praising him will desert him faster than he can blink.

[MOON Ki]

His services are required in 2017/2018; so he is secure until the.   Therefore, in the meantime, the "small" matter of the 0.5M GEMA must be "forgotten".   But it is not really forgotten.

[RV Pundit]

Now that he has folded URP and joined JAP; what happens when JAP does their MOAS calculation in 2017 and realize they need to add few numbers through a coalition; WSR has turned out to be one of the most overrated politicians.The man is not very smart. That is why Isaac and Gideon plus other have smelt blood.They sniffed a weakling.

His services are required in 2017/2018; so he is secure until the.   Therefore, in the meantime, the "small" matter of the 0.5M GEMA must be "forgotten".   But it is not really forgotten.

[MOON Ki]

Pundit:

No matter what the issues are with the D.P., do you seriously believe that Moi and the other Ruto are of a calibre that could take him down?   

[Georgesoros]

Jubilee grade: 1 being least and 10 being the most

Corruption levels  = 1
Security                 =1
Economic activity  = 4
National cohesion = 3

[RV Pundit]

They can't take him down but they will weaken him more; something the DP seem very capable of doing it himself; talk of self-destruction. He need to quickly change advisors.

Pundit:

No matter what the issues are with the D.P., do you seriously believe that Moi and the other Ruto are of a calibre that could take him down?   

[Omollo]

All that is needed to bring down Uhuru is a runoff. Anybody who manages to bring it about would have brought down Uhuru

They can't take him down but they will weaken him more; something the DP seem very capable of doing it himself; talk of self-destruction. He need to quickly change advisors.

Pundit:

No matter what the issues are with the D.P., do you seriously believe that Moi and the other Ruto are of a calibre that could take him down?   

[RV Pundit]

Yes a run-off will be the cliff-hanger coz it easier to rally Non-GEMA when the choice is binary.So what will Uhuru do...to ensure he doesn't go for run-off..he will swallow URP and make a deal with most likely Kalonzo or a Ukambani breakup(led by Mutua most likely)..that mean both Uhuru and Ruto (esp) will have to lose some posts like Speaker or Majority Leaders plus some cabinet . I think Western is lost forever as far as Jubilee are concerned. MaDVD/Wamalwa will not recover and might have to decamp to CORD allied coalition.

Anyway this is still Uhuru election. He just have some much leverage and patronage.

All that is needed to bring down Uhuru is a runoff. Anybody who manages to bring it about would have brought down Uhuru

[Omollo]

You should not forget that Kibaki was beaten in 2007. Elected leaders are most vulnerable on re-election. Bush could have lost to Kerry; Bush snr Lost to Bill Clinton.

The temptation to rig one-self back is ever more present.

Why? One gets used to being praised and little if any unpleasant information reaches his ears. All those who make him unhappy are cut off and those who please him by dismissing the cannon shots approaching the Palace Gates as "the security guards farting aloud" are more than welcome and dominate. Kibaki got a rude shock when he was defeated in 2005 referendum. He did not see it coming. Thus he decided to rig 2007.

I do not see how Uhuru can avoid a runoff unless he carries out the same game as 2013 of topping up. CORD needs to stop topping up and maintain its vote in Nyanza and Western. Then kick Jubilee out of Coast and Kisii. If some votes come from RV, well and good but that would seal it.

Once there is a runoff, there are places that would change and the incumbent won't automatically gain. For example any Jubilee votes in Western and Coast would break for CORD.

About Kalonzo: If he does another Judas dance he would be finished. I doubt that he is that stupid. Mutua has no votes and would be another Kiema Kilonzo. Mutua will be check-mated by his Senator. I think Muthama would rather lose his seat than see Mutua in any public office. He has the resources and the determination to deliver. He can negotiate and pay off any support Mutua might get from Jubilee.

Ngilu is still their best man in Ukambani. As longs as Kalonzo is DP in CORD and Ngilu is an easily suspended CS, I think CORD will keep its vote at the last level perhaps with a 2% increase.

Yes a run-off will be the cliff-hanger coz it easier to rally Non-GEMA when the choice is binary.So what will Uhuru do...to ensure he doesn't go for run-off..he will swallow URP and make a deal with most likely Kalonzo or a Ukambani breakup(led by Mutua most likely)..that mean both Uhuru and Ruto (esp) will have to lose some posts like Speaker or Majority Leaders plus some cabinet . I think Western is lost forever as far as Jubilee are concerned. MaDVD/Wamalwa will not recover and might have to decamp to CORD allied coalition.

Anyway this is still Uhuru election. He just have some much leverage and patronage.

All that is needed to bring down Uhuru is a runoff. Anybody who manages to bring it about would have brought down Uhuru