What is Isaac Ruto's End Game?

[Omollo]

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Ndugu Pundit

What is IR's end game?

He has been making forays in Nyanza directly to the grass roots and he seems to be well liked especially his no nonsense speeches that pillory Jubilee. He leaves his audience in tatters as he makes fun of JAP: "I am not even sure I was a member of Jubilee", he said to peals of laughter.

That aside, he has neutralized every attempt made to mobilize against him. Be it in his Bomett or neighboring Narok, he has simply turned up and made nonsense of meetings organized to get rid of him. Frankly I think WSR has run out of options and the idea of running IR out of town is no longer looking viable. Which raises questions:

If you over throw the King you most likely become King. IR has now declared that he will run for President in 2017. DP WSR cannot do the same as he has been promised 2022 - something nobody normal believes would ever happen. I wonder if he is simply upstaging WSR; Raising his "price" to both CORD and JAP; Mobilizing his people so he can swing them in the direction of his choice or seriously considering a run. He has obviously made money from his job and can sustain an insurgent campaign even if he couldn't match JAP's spending capacity.

[Omollo]

Kenya: The war of words between Deputy President William Ruto and Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto intensified yesterday after the latter accused the former of using his tour of Kericho County at the weekend to sow seeds of discord among leaders in the area.

The governor said it was wrong for the DP to use threats against leaders who hold divergent views and asked him to respect other people and their stand on issues. "As a leader, the Deputy President should be preaching unity but it is unfortunate he has resorted to warning Kericho Governor Paul Chepkwony against associating with some of us because we have divergent opinions on issues," said Isaac.

The row between the two leaders turned worse after MPs allied to the Deputy President endorsed National Assembly Deputy Speaker Joyce Laboso for the Bomet governor's seat. Bomet Central MP Ronald Tonui said Bomet residents have been holding consultative meetings with a view of fronting a person to dethrone Isaac who, he added, had adopted a belligerent stand on other leaders. "The people of Bomet have spoken with one voice that they will be supporting Dr Laboso for the governorship. We totally support the people of Bomet on this," said Mr Tonui.

MPs Benjamin Lagat (Ainamoi), Bernard Sang (Bureti), Jackson Rop (Kipkelion West), Erick Keter (Belgut), Joseph Limo (Kipkelion East) and Kericho Woman Representative Helen Chepkwony told Isaac to respect Ruto. Speaking at a fund-raising ceremony presided over by the DP in aid of Chepseon Girls Secondary School, the legislators said they would support the newly formed Jubilee Alliance Party (JAP), which the governor has dismissed and also back Ruto's Presidential bid come 2022. Mr Lagat said the governor had lost touch with the people at the grassroots and risked being sidelined during the next General Election.

"Some of our leaders have lost touch with the electorate and they risk being sidelined because they are becoming irrelevant," he said. The Deputy President addressed meetings at Kapkatet Stadium and Chepseon Girls Secondary school, saying the Government would not be distracted from its development agenda by cheap propaganda and empty political rhetoric. Reacting to a statement by the Deputy President during a function at Kapkatet Stadium in Kericho where he warned Prof Chepkwony of a backlash from voters in 2017, Isaac said the threats were uncalled-for.

The Deputy President reportedly told Chepkwony that he is a gentleman who should "not be fooled" by someone who would lead him to lose touch with voters in the next election. Isaac, who kept off the function that was attended by many leaders from the South Rift, said political differences should not be used to sow discord between Kericho and Bomet counties.

Selfish interest

The governor was speaking at Ndanai Trading Centre where he distributed Sh17 million for various community projects funded by the county government, yesterday. He was accompanied by Ward Representatives Hesbond Siele (Ndanai), Stephen Morik (Longisa) and David Rotich(Chemagel).

"We have been living in harmony with the Kericho people and selfish interests should not be used to separate us," he said. But MPs allied to the DP said they would not allow Isaac to divide South Rift residents.

"Laboso is our bet because of her experience and prudent management of CDF funds. We cannot support a governor who mismanages county resources and does not want to work with other leaders," said Tonui.

A source who did not want to named told The Standard MPs allied to the DP plan to keep the governor busy in his county after the expiry of his term as the Council of Governors chairman in May. "In the coming few months we are going to make things very uncomfortable for the governor in his county if he does not stop attacking the Government," said an MP privy to the scheme. However, most MCAs from Bomet accused the MPs of reducing themselves to lynch mobs.

Read more at: http://standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000155737/we-ll-back-laboso-to-unseat-ruto

[RV Pundit]

Omollo,
I am also struggling to understand Isaac Rutto. His people on the ground have been trying to engineer a kipsigis-nandi fallout but nobody seem interested in such schemes. The same with his gripe against WSR. The problem with Isaac Rutto..is that is well known local thief...so few are buying into his tirade.

But one thing is certain..he has crossed the rubicon and will not be coming back to Jubilee.His best bet is to split Kipsigsis and try sell them to ODM..which nobody will buy into.

If Raila and CORD were to do the unthinkable..and have Isaac Ruto for PORK...then Jubilee will be dead scared.

As of now..Jubilee are sitting pretty because Kalenjin+GEMA is simply unbeatable...as shown by last election.

Best bet for CORD is to put Isaac Ruto upfront or Deputy PORK..split Kalenjin....or take all of them...and you have solid alliance...that will have Uhuru kenyatta shitting bricks.

If status quo remain..CORD gets beaten again..if they swamp Kalonzo or Wetangula for Raila..they get beaten AGAIN.
 
CORD have to figure out how to split Kalenjin...given they are not running for PORK...and that is where Isaac Rutto comes in.

Bottomline...it going to be tricky...who does Isaac Rutto displace? Someone has to give up..Raila or Kalonzo or Wetangula.

CORD going forward have to try eat into MaDVD 4% (maragolis) and try to get some kalenjin. Uhuru will have the incumbency and the patrnoage...to retain his 50%

[Omollo]

Kalonzo is the weakest link in CORD. It's a dilemma as well. Western is now solidly behind CORD through ODM and Ford Kenya. A new formula needs to be used to decide the number two, three and four positions. It should be based on the number of votes one can deliver. Otherwise we end up with the Madvd vs Ruto situation where Ruto delivered more votes but lost the PM Deputy PM post to Madvd.

I doubt that Isaac can deliver the Kipsigis. CORD should aim at securing WSR even if it means backing him for President. We can't manage another 5 years of Kikuyu colonialism. It is either that or civil war. I was recently on a lightening trip to Kenya and the feeling in Western and Coast left me scared. I was reminded of the 2007 buildup to PEV. Raila would have to make some sacrifices. Big ones!

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru will have gone home if only Raila was willing sacrifice. The same in 2007. Raila has to sacrifice if "gema" hegemony is a problem. The problem Raila thinks he already sacrificed in 2002 by handing Kibaki (another gema).

But i agree ODM+FORD-K have basically cannabalize AMANI in Western kenya. The feeling there is just anti-Jubilee.Coast and Maasailand not looking good either. Somalis? big iff.

Ultimately Raila has to sacrifice for Kalonzo or Wetangula or someone else.

Personally i gave up on WSR when he handed Uhuru a second term on silver platter. The guy is worse than Isaac Rutto.Totally clueless. A complete idiot if you will.WSR should have insisted on mid-term switch. His 2022 idea is totally absolutely whack. Who plan for 10yrs in kenya? or he think presidency belong to Mama Ngina.

Most kalenjin are not happy with WSR handing over 10yrs instead of agreed 5yrs hence why Isaac, Zakayos and others have found sympathisers who think like senile Baba Moi  WSR has basically lost plot..and is driving Kalenjin bus dangerously and recklessly. Why fold up URP that folks built to join JAP monolith.

Kalonzo is the weakest link in CORD. It's a dilemma as well. Western is now solidly behind CORD through ODM and Ford Kenya. A new formula needs to be used to decide the number two, three and four positions. It should be based on the number of votes one can deliver. Otherwise we end up with the Madvd vs Ruto situation where Ruto delivered more votes but lost the PM Deputy PM post to Madvd.

I doubt that Isaac can deliver the Kipsigis. CORD should aim at securing WSR even if it means backing him for President. We can't manage another 5 years of Kikuyu colonialism. It is either that or civil war. I was recently on a lightening trip to Kenya and the feeling in Western and Coast left me scared. I was reminded of the 2007 buildup to PEV. Raila would have to make some sacrifices. Big ones!

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

The hustler has sold his soul to the current mafia.  They own him.  I don't know what the situation is on the ground, but it is less important to him than what the mafia thinks.  He is now little more than a glorified Murkomen.

[Omollo]

The problem is the lack of a credible candidate beside RAO. Kalonzo and Wetangula betrayed Kenyans in 2007 by cutting deals with Kibaki and are only benefiting from tribal loyalties and "nationalism". None can be trusted not to betray any anti-GEMA alliance.

The Coast has yet to produce a Ronald Ngala figure. MaDVD is ready to lick any ass that promises to hand him power even on a wooden tray! He is written off. So who can Raila hand to? You have seen how Ababu was bought and sold like Omena! So cheaply and easily!

In brief there is no candidate. RAO himself is getting tired if not already worn out. He can transform anybody but what assurance is there the person will not turn to GEMA to escape?

That said I see a huge gap. Most of the current politicians are products of KANU in one form or another. They came to prominence either as KANU operatives or opponents. They have overstayed their term and by that caused a dearth of new faces.

[Mr Mansfield.]

Wetangula will cut a deal with UhuruRuto in 2017 after he consolidates the bukusu vote,He clearly knows he can't be president in 2017 and CORD chances of winning are minimal which means another 5years in the opposition,Remember he is a former KANU and PNU operative,Mudavadi will go back to Raila to revive his career...Raila has to stick with Kalonzo,At least that way he will be assured of kamba vote,You cannot gamble on Isaac Ruto who will be sent home in 2017,Kalenjins will have to stick with WSR,That way they are in gov and will take the presidency in 2022,

Without Prejudice.

[RV Pundit]

The main problem..there are only two positions worth being traded..this is not going to be easy for any team..but UhuRuto have a clear advantage given their line up is settled. Raila & CORD has to do something big to unseat Uhuru. Really big!

Wetangula will cut a deal with UhuruRuto in 2017 after he consolidates the bukusu vote,He clearly knows he can't be president in 2017 and CORD chances of winning are minimal which means another 5years in the opposition,Remember he is a former KANU and PNU operative,Mudavadi will go back to Raila to revive his career...Raila has to stick with Kalonzo,At least that way he will be assured of kamba vote,You cannot gamble on Isaac Ruto who will be sent home in 2017,Kalenjins will have to stick with WSR,That way they are in gov and will take the presidency in 2022,

Without Prejudice.

[Mr Mansfield.]

Raila & CORD has to do something big to unseat Uhuru. Really big!

Uhuru is free,Ruto's ICC case will also be thrown out in due course,i don't see any way for cord,

Without Prejudice .

[MOON Ki]

RAO himself is getting tired if not already worn out.

Rails is tired and surrounded by crappy advisors and assorted misfits.    On the present path, CORD might as well skip 2017 and wait for 2022: defeat seems inevitable.   

Raila, despite his enormous native abilities and talent, is either unable or willing to (a) learn anything from 2007 and before, (b) get rid of the clowns he has around him, and (c) do some lesser, and convincing, OKOARing before purporting to okoa the country.   

Kenya's problem is that there are no other serious alternatives: even Luhya drunkards would not consider Wetangula as presidential anything; Kalonzo is a slimy flake who can't be trusted farther than you can throw him; etc., etc., etc.

[Omollo]

I agree entirely. There is a dearth of choice. Achebe deals with this issue in The Trouble with Nigeria. When the military finally decided to hand over power in 1979, there arose a problem of choice. Back in came Namdi Azikiwe and the other side brought back Obafemi Awolowo. The North decided on Aminu Kano. That gave Corrupt and Sleazy Shehu Shagari the opportunity and set the stage for the return of the military for an extended period.

RAO himself is getting tired if not already worn out.

Rails is tired and surrounded by crappy advisors and assorted misfits.    On the present path, CORD might as well skip 2017 and wait for 2022: defeat seems inevitable.   

Raila, despite his enormous native abilities and talent, is either unable or willing to (a) learn anything from 2007 and before, (b) get rid of the clowns he has around him, and (c) do some lesser, and convincing, OKOARing before purporting to okoa the country.   

Kenya's problem is that there are no other serious alternatives: even Luhya drunkards would not consider Wetangula as presidential anything; Kalonzo is a slimy flake who can't be trusted farther than you can throw him; etc., etc., etc.

[Omollo]

This guy is what we call "Kichwa Maji!"

"How can he purport to know what one is praying? How can he be privy to our prayers? How can he know what I pray? It is my communication with God, not even the bishop or pastor knows. He should not sink that low as to introduce issues of prayers into straight forward matters. Let him address what I have raised and stop interfering with the Members of County Assembly (MCAs) in Bomet."
Read more at: http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000159031&story_title=moi-i-never-met-uhuru-and-dp-at-state-house&pageNo=2