Rv pundit,If Raila retires politics before 2027

[Githunguri]

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1) who becomes the luo leader?

2) what happens to Ruto national support?

3)Which direction will Babu Owino take?

Ruto must hypothesis these scenarios

[RV Pundit]

1) Luos will split. Luos historically are like Gusii and Luhyas. They are like Somalis given to many crazy feuds. Only Odingas have united them.
2) They will have South versus North battles.
3) Babu is not taken as Luo - he is urbane Luo Mhindi from Nyalende - he has no Luo credentials. Luos are very proud people where everyone has to recall long line of family history - like Somalis. Babu owino cannot sell in rural Luos  where clan is everything and then family trees all the way to South Sudan - you must remember you're son of omollo who was son of odongo who was son of odhiambo who was son of otieno - crazy long lineage - impressive
4) For Ruto is Luos are united - Kindiki may lose his position - and Luos will take. If not Kindiki keep his job

[Githunguri]

1) Luos will split. Luos historically are like Gusii and Luhyas. They are like Somalis given to many crazy feuds. Only Odingas have united them.
2) They will have South versus North battles.
3) Babu is not taken as Luo - he is urbane Luo Mhindi from Nyalende - he has no Luo credentials. Luos are very proud people where everyone has to recall long line of family history - like Somalis. Babu owino cannot sell in rural Luos  where clan is everything and then family trees all the way to South Sudan - you must remember you're son of omollo who was son of odongo who was son of odhiambo who was son of otieno - crazy long lineage - impressive
4) For Ruto is Luos are united - Kindiki may lose his position - and Luos will take. If not Kindiki keep his job

But Kindiki brings Ruto no votes.

A divided lot people is a loss for Ruto.He has no solid support post Kalenjin zones.

Were it not for Raila,He wouldn't be president today.In the unlikely scenario Raila exits politics,Ruto will have a lot of political problems.

He will be dealing with irrational leaders in the Luo Luhya bloc Sifuna Caleb Amisi Natembeya Babu Owino who will split his vote.

In the coastal region,If Kalonzo is handed the ticket,He will beat Ruto to pulp.He will have a head start of GEMA Kamba bloc which we could estimate around 20% not sure.The rest of coastal tribes and Luo Luhya Kisii diaspora at the coast will split.That gives Kalonzo +60% at the coast.

Raila's exit spells doom for Ruto.

[Githunguri]

Don't watch Lee makwiny nonsense,At minute 1:40 you can see how Babu ongili excites Jaluos.

The scenario we currently face is not where a jaluo came from in the Nile valley but what options are on the table?

Between Babu Owino Vs John Mbadi Gladys Wanga who would Jaluos choose?

I think is Babu Owino.

Babu should not quit ODM.He should hold on a little longer....

[RV Pundit]

Githunguri, you suffer from grand delusional that kikuyus are so many. They aren't. They are almost same with kalenjin political wise in number of votes, mps, senators, governors. Ruto alone has 35-40% political base stringing along Moi constituency of 90s that Raila had stolen. Luos are 11%. ODM has been reliable 35% party meaning Raila had 20% non luo base. This what Ruto want the Non Gema base. Then it simple job of who is deputy n 2032 successor..huge leverage. Kindiki keep it if he clawback Mt Kenya east n especially win Uhuru jubilee endorsement. If not Luos or Kambas get offer. Kalonzo running against Ruto is joke. Only person Ruto doesn't want running against is united Raila n uhuru.