Matiangi

[Githunguri]

• Tweet

https://x.com/DrBKhalwale/status/1918321514765828143

[RV Pundit]

When do they unleash Muhoho Kenyatta.

If I was Ruto - I would clandestinely boost Matiangi campaign - it work best for him.

Political neophyte like him are easy to deal with.

Raila and Kalonzo  would be more difficult.

[Githunguri]

The issue is not matiangi.The issue is kisii vote is gone.completely.

[Njuri Ncheke]

The issue is not matiangi.The issue is kisii vote is gone.completely.

How many votes do kisii have nugu!
How many did vote for Ruto negligible
Matiangi is a buffoon Uhurus project
Rather vote Kalonzo the watermelon

[Njuri Ncheke]

Funny Kisiii are celebrating they are convinced Matiangi will be president, They only need not look further than baba with deepstate.

[gout]

That means throwing under the bus kina Osoro. Ruto has adopted the babaman loser formula - scatter comrades, no time to consolidate.

When do they unleash Muhoho Kenyatta.

If I was Ruto - I would clandestinely boost Matiangi campaign - it work best for him.

Political neophyte like him are easy to deal with.

Raila and Kalonzo  would be more difficult.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto will face one strong opponent.
He should dread facing Raila
The rest works best for him.
Matiangi will sell amongst bitter Kikuyus.
But they lose Ukambani who are bitter with overlooking of kalonzo who has more votes than 4% from Gusii (Nyachae 2002).

That means throwing under the bus kina Osoro. Ruto has adopted the babaman loser formula - scatter comrades, no time to consolidate.

[RV Pundit]

Nyachae wave - he got 4%.
At least Kaloi - got 8%

Funny Kisiii are celebrating they are convinced Matiangi will be president, They only need not look further than baba with deepstate.

[Tactician]

Correction - Nyachae got 6% of the vote in 2002.  Not 4%.

And Kalonzo got 9%, not 8%. 

In essence, switching from Kalonzo to Matiang'i is a drop of 3%. 

So why is WSR and his team running scared of Matiang'i when he brings less votes than Melon?

1) A Kalonzo candidature optically splits Kenya into Eastern vs Western.  Kalonzo representing Eastern Kenya with their Mt Kenya cousins, while WSR representing the Western Alliance (RV + Western + Nyanza).  In such a scenario, WSR clinches an easy win.

2) A Matiang'i candidature splits the Western Alliance that WSR is putting together (he intends to run on an ODM ticket with an ODM running mate).  Matiang'i captures the Kisii vote + half of the Luhya vote while maintaining the Central Kenya vote.

3) Even if Kalonzo were to shift to WSR, Matiang'i polls better in Ukambani than WSR cos of no 4) below.

4) The electorate seems tired of the same old rigmarole of politicians (hence the low voter turnout in 2022).  Matiang'i has never run for any office; is a fresh first time candidate who comes  with a proven background of competence and execution.  As in if he says he is doing something, the guy will do everything to make it happen. Magufuli style.

5) The Gen Z vote resonates and rhymes better with Matiang'i than with any other candidate. 

HENCE the clear panic in the WSR camp

[RV Pundit]

Western v Eastern is just good optics.
It nonsense in our ETHNIC BASED PREDICTIVE MODELLING.
You have written lot of wishful nonsense based on East and West nonsense.
This thing will as always be tribal.
Any maths where Ruto-Raila are working as unit - no need to continue doing the maths.
Both Raila and Ruto have NATIONAL SUPPORT - each easily getting 30-35%.
National support from all tribes - from all 47 counties.
Matiangi is political neophytes who at best will only fly amongst Mt kenya (mainly Kikuyu).
Outside he is nothing - you will need governors/mps/mcas battling for you camp say in Kwale - he is absent.
Kalonzo generally faces the same Matiangi mess.
To build national support is not easy.
The problem most Mt kenya leaders are too insular to build national support.

In short no need for MOASS unless I see Ruto versus Raila.

Ruto will be very happy to face Matiangi or Kalonzo or any other looser.

He has to be working on Plan A - facing Raila Odinga - Uhuru and Kikuyus seem bitter enough to try anything.

Ruto will encourage Matiangi to run  so he can snatch Kalonzo.

Ruto has to work to get Kalonzo and Kambas as Plan C - if Kindiki fails to fly like its looking like - and if Raila bolt out last minute.

For Ruto plan A should be to win presidency without kikuyus and Raila - and that means finding replacement about 20% that Mt kenya have left has a void.  He needs to play with Deputy Presidency for someone who can deliver 10% at least. MaDVD cant. Weta cant. Kalonzo could. Kindiki could. Then he will hunt for 10% by expanding areas he did badly - which was almost all counties outside Mt Kenya & Kalenjin - where Raila was beating him by 70% to 30%; he needs to flip that using incumbency.

Correction - Nyachae got 6% of the vote in 2002.  Not 4%.

And Kalonzo got 9%, not 8%. 

In essence, switching from Kalonzo to Matiang'i is a drop of 3%. 

So why is WSR and his team running scared of Matiang'i when he brings less votes than Melon?

1) A Kalonzo candidature optically splits Kenya into Eastern vs Western.  Kalonzo representing Eastern Kenya with their Mt Kenya cousins, while WSR representing the Western Alliance (RV + Western + Nyanza).  In such a scenario, WSR clinches an easy win.

2) A Matiang'i candidature splits the Western Alliance that WSR is putting together (he intends to run on an ODM ticket with an ODM running mate).  Matiang'i captures the Kisii vote + half of the Luhya vote while maintaining the Central Kenya vote.

3) Even if Kalonzo were to shift to WSR, Matiang'i polls better in Ukambani than WSR cos of no 4) below.

4) The electorate seems tired of the same old rigmarole of politicians (hence the low voter turnout in 2022).  Matiang'i has never run for any office; is a fresh first time candidate who comes  with a proven background of competence and execution.  As in if he says he is doing something, the guy will do everything to make it happen. Magufuli style.

5) The Gen Z vote resonates and rhymes better with Matiang'i than with any other candidate. 

HENCE the clear panic in the WSR camp

[Tactician]

The WSR - RAO dichotomy has been the dominant narrative since 2013 (basically a continuation of the Jubilee vs NASA/CORD).

But does it hold today? If ift does, how do we explain last year's protests which

1) were against WSR,

2) were not led by RAO, and

3) had NATIONAL SUPPORT (emphasis yours)??

In short, who is this, apart from WSR/RAO, that best represents the ideals of these protests?

Something in the national psyche has been changing and last year's protests were the evidence. 

The Jubilee vs CORD dynamics as represented by UK/WSR on one side and RAO/Kalonzo on the other have shifted.   Waves of these changing tides can even be seen in the 2022 elections.  For example:

i) WSR got more votes in Bungoma than Rao did for the first time since 2007.

ii) WSR got 25% of the votes in Ukambani - even in his own home county of Kitui....from a high of 10-15% in 2013 and 2017 for the Jubilee side.

iii) Voter turnout in 2022 was the lowest it has been since 2002 elections. 

In short, relying on the WSR/RAO dynamics to predict the future, when they couldn't even explain the 2024 protests, is myopic

Western v Eastern is just good optics.
It nonsense in our ETHNIC BASED PREDICTIVE MODELLING.
You have written lot of wishful nonsense based on East and West nonsense.
This thing will as always be tribal.
Any maths where Ruto-Raila are working as unit - no need to continue doing the maths.
Both Raila and Ruto have NATIONAL SUPPORT - each easily getting 30-35%.
National support from all tribes - from all 47 counties.
Matiangi is political neophytes who at best will only fly amongst Mt kenya (mainly Kikuyu).
Outside he is nothing - you will need governors/mps/mcas battling for you camp say in Kwale - he is absent.
Kalonzo generally faces the same Matiangi mess.
To build national support is not easy.
The problem most Mt kenya leaders are too insular to build national support.

In short no need for MOASS unless I see Ruto versus Raila.

Ruto will be very happy to face Matiangi or Kalonzo or any other looser.

He has to be working on Plan A - facing Raila Odinga - Uhuru and Kikuyus seem bitter enough to try anything.

Ruto will encourage Matiangi to run  so he can snatch Kalonzo.

Ruto has to work to get Kalonzo and Kambas as Plan C - if Kindiki fails to fly like its looking like - and if Raila bolt out last minute.

For Ruto plan A should be to win presidency without kikuyus and Raila - and that means finding replacement about 20% that Mt kenya have left has a void.  He needs to play with Deputy Presidency for someone who can deliver 10% at least. MaDVD cant. Weta cant. Kalonzo could. Kindiki could. Then he will hunt for 10% by expanding areas he did badly - which was almost all counties outside Mt Kenya & Kalenjin - where Raila was beating him by 70% to 30%; he needs to flip that using incumbency.

Correction - Nyachae got 6% of the vote in 2002.  Not 4%.

And Kalonzo got 9%, not 8%. 

In essence, switching from Kalonzo to Matiang'i is a drop of 3%. 

So why is WSR and his team running scared of Matiang'i when he brings less votes than Melon?

1) A Kalonzo candidature optically splits Kenya into Eastern vs Western.  Kalonzo representing Eastern Kenya with their Mt Kenya cousins, while WSR representing the Western Alliance (RV + Western + Nyanza).  In such a scenario, WSR clinches an easy win.

2) A Matiang'i candidature splits the Western Alliance that WSR is putting together (he intends to run on an ODM ticket with an ODM running mate).  Matiang'i captures the Kisii vote + half of the Luhya vote while maintaining the Central Kenya vote.

3) Even if Kalonzo were to shift to WSR, Matiang'i polls better in Ukambani than WSR cos of no 4) below.

4) The electorate seems tired of the same old rigmarole of politicians (hence the low voter turnout in 2022).  Matiang'i has never run for any office; is a fresh first time candidate who comes  with a proven background of competence and execution.  As in if he says he is doing something, the guy will do everything to make it happen. Magufuli style.

5) The Gen Z vote resonates and rhymes better with Matiang'i than with any other candidate. 

HENCE the clear panic in the WSR camp

[RV Pundit]

Protest was just black swan thing.
London riots of 15yrs ago.
Black lives matters riots.
These are online inspired protests - by urban kids.
Politically I dont think it will go anywhere.
It already disintegrate into tribes.
And is pretty much Dead on Arrival.

Anyway it too early to be running tribal maths.

2022 - we have written about it - for acres of acres of online spaces
Weta was key for Ruto and he nailed it
Kalonzo kambas were unhappy with Kalonzo not getting at least deputy -
they must be raving now that again -
Kalonzo is being overlooked for Matiangi by the same kikuyus who promised to back them.

Beating combined Ruto-Raila is nearly impossible.

But Ruto failed to get Raila AU - and doesnt have position Raila would take now - maybe Deputy President - I doubt it will tickle him

The WSR - RAO dichotomy has been the dominant narrative since 2013 (basically a continuation of the Jubilee vs NASA/CORD).

But does it hold today? If ift does, how do we explain last year's protests which

1) were against WSR,

2) were not led by RAO, and

3) had NATIONAL SUPPORT (emphasis yours)??

In short, who is this, apart from WSR/RAO, that best represents the ideals of these protests?

Something in the national psyche has been changing and last year's protests were the evidence. 

The Jubilee vs CORD dynamics as represented by UK/WSR on one side and RAO/Kalonzo on the other have shifted.   Waves of these changing tides can even be seen in the 2022 elections.  For example:

i) WSR got more votes in Bungoma than Rao did for the first time since 2007.

ii) WSR got 25% of the votes in Ukambani - even in his own home county of Kitui....from a high of 10-15% in 2013 and 2017 for the Jubilee side.

iii) Voter turnout in 2022 was the lowest it has been since 2002 elections. 

In short, relying on the WSR/RAO dynamics to predict the future, when they couldn't even explain the 2024 protests, is myopic

[Tactician]

Black swan? 

Widespread protests are generally a harbinger of larger opposition to the incumbent government.

London riots of 15 years ago (2009) and Labour lost its 13 year incumbency the next year.  Black lives matter (2014  - 15) and Democrats lost the Senate/WH around the same time.

Agree it's too early to prepare tribal math.  On the same, the bottom up narrative that WSR unleashed at the last election has changed Kenyan politics in a manner that most do not want to acknowledge.  Hence the 25% WSR Ukambani vote. 

As for RAO, it's time to reckon that his time in Kenyan politics is up.  At his age, he can only be at the top of the ticket - yet him running yet another time will be one too many - he would lose even more allies (a la Weta/MDVD) cos how come he wants to be supported but cannot reciprocate?

In retrospect, once UK (16 years his junior) defeated him in 2013, it was over.  Then WSR, 21 years his junior, came along and his time is kaput.  Accommodating him as DP is embarrassing hence the AU plot.  Add the AU defeat and his narrative as a serial loser is sealed.

The same fate encompasses Kalonzo - who first ran for president in 20years ago and after 18 years in the cabinet has nothing to show what he accomplished. 

There is a very large mass of voters who do not feel any of these legacy politicians (RAO/WSR/Melon) - hence the lowest voter turnout in 20 years in 2022....and the protests in 2024 that were decidedly political. 

Question is - who is the candidate who can harness these disgruntled mass of voters?

Protest was just black swan thing.
London riots of 15yrs ago.
Black lives matters riots.
These are online inspired protests - by urban kids.
Politically I dont think it will go anywhere.
It already disintegrate into tribes.
And is pretty much Dead on Arrival.

Anyway it too early to be running tribal maths.

2022 - we have written about it - for acres of acres of online spaces
Weta was key for Ruto and he nailed it
Kalonzo kambas were unhappy with Kalonzo not getting at least deputy -
they must be raving now that again -
Kalonzo is being overlooked for Matiangi by the same kikuyus who promised to back them.

Beating combined Ruto-Raila is nearly impossible.

But Ruto failed to get Raila AU - and doesnt have position Raila would take now - maybe Deputy President - I doubt it will tickle him

The WSR - RAO dichotomy has been the dominant narrative since 2013 (basically a continuation of the Jubilee vs NASA/CORD).

But does it hold today? If ift does, how do we explain last year's protests which

1) were against WSR,

2) were not led by RAO, and

3) had NATIONAL SUPPORT (emphasis yours)??

In short, who is this, apart from WSR/RAO, that best represents the ideals of these protests?

Something in the national psyche has been changing and last year's protests were the evidence. 

The Jubilee vs CORD dynamics as represented by UK/WSR on one side and RAO/Kalonzo on the other have shifted.   Waves of these changing tides can even be seen in the 2022 elections.  For example:

i) WSR got more votes in Bungoma than Rao did for the first time since 2007.

ii) WSR got 25% of the votes in Ukambani - even in his own home county of Kitui....from a high of 10-15% in 2013 and 2017 for the Jubilee side.

iii) Voter turnout in 2022 was the lowest it has been since 2002 elections. 

In short, relying on the WSR/RAO dynamics to predict the future, when they couldn't even explain the 2024 protests, is myopic

[RV Pundit]

Kenya voters are irremediably tribal.
Gen-Z is dead as dodo - it fallen apart as everyone run to their tribe.
Gen-Z would have send Ruto home if it erupted in 2027.
It erupted in 2024.
By 2027 it will be whimper.
The few diehards will attempt Maraga-Omtatah.
Matiangi is more dirty than Ruto in terms of abuse of power/dictatorship/extra judicial killing.
Only a gusii or bitter kikuyu can make an argument that Matiangi is good.

Anyway still early - but one thing is for sure - if Raila wont be backed by opposition leader(Uhuru) - he will back Ruto ending the game.
Matiangi is Uhuru test tube baby.

Black swan? 

Widespread protests are generally a harbinger of larger opposition to the incumbent government.

London riots of 15 years ago (2009) and Labour lost its 13 year incumbency the next year.  Black lives matter (2014  - 15) and Democrats lost the Senate/WH around the same time.

Agree it's too early to prepare tribal math.  On the same, the bottom up narrative that WSR unleashed at the last election has changed Kenyan politics in a manner that most do not want to acknowledge.  Hence the 25% WSR Ukambani vote. 

As for RAO, it's time to reckon that his time in Kenyan politics is up.  At his age, he can only be at the top of the ticket - yet him running yet another time will be one too many - he would lose even more allies (a la Weta/MDVD) cos how come he wants to be supported but cannot reciprocate?

In retrospect, once UK (16 years his junior) defeated him in 2013, it was over.  Then WSR, 21 years his junior, came along and his time is kaput.  Accommodating him as DP is embarrassing hence the AU plot.  Add the AU defeat and his narrative as a serial loser is sealed.

The same fate encompasses Kalonzo - who first ran for president in 20years ago and after 18 years in the cabinet has nothing to show what he accomplished. 

There is a very large mass of voters who do not feel any of these legacy politicians (RAO/WSR/Melon) - hence the lowest voter turnout in 20 years in 2022....and the protests in 2024 that were decidedly political. 

Question is - who is the candidate who can harness these disgruntled mass of voters?

[Tactician]

2027?

Let's first wait for June/July.  Scork may just decide that elections are in Aug 2026.  Case is going through the filings and responses before hearing latest July.....

Needless to mention that whether its 2026 or 27, the 50% + 1 is likely to come into play for the first time ever.....I foresee many candidates running and joining hands in 2nd round....

Kenya voters are irremediably tribal.
Gen-Z is dead as dodo - it fallen apart as everyone run to their tribe.
Gen-Z would have send Ruto home if it erupted in 2027.
It erupted in 2024.
By 2027 it will be whimper.
The few diehards will attempt Maraga-Omtatah.
Matiangi is more dirty than Ruto in terms of abuse of power/dictatorship/extra judicial killing.
Only a gusii or bitter kikuyu can make an argument that Matiangi is good.

Anyway still early - but one thing is for sure - if Raila wont be backed by opposition leader(Uhuru) - he will back Ruto ending the game.
Matiangi is Uhuru test tube baby.

Black swan? 

Widespread protests are generally a harbinger of larger opposition to the incumbent government.

London riots of 15 years ago (2009) and Labour lost its 13 year incumbency the next year.  Black lives matter (2014  - 15) and Democrats lost the Senate/WH around the same time.

Agree it's too early to prepare tribal math.  On the same, the bottom up narrative that WSR unleashed at the last election has changed Kenyan politics in a manner that most do not want to acknowledge.  Hence the 25% WSR Ukambani vote. 

As for RAO, it's time to reckon that his time in Kenyan politics is up.  At his age, he can only be at the top of the ticket - yet him running yet another time will be one too many - he would lose even more allies (a la Weta/MDVD) cos how come he wants to be supported but cannot reciprocate?

In retrospect, once UK (16 years his junior) defeated him in 2013, it was over.  Then WSR, 21 years his junior, came along and his time is kaput.  Accommodating him as DP is embarrassing hence the AU plot.  Add the AU defeat and his narrative as a serial loser is sealed.

The same fate encompasses Kalonzo - who first ran for president in 20years ago and after 18 years in the cabinet has nothing to show what he accomplished. 

There is a very large mass of voters who do not feel any of these legacy politicians (RAO/WSR/Melon) - hence the lowest voter turnout in 20 years in 2022....and the protests in 2024 that were decidedly political. 

Question is - who is the candidate who can harness these disgruntled mass of voters?

[RV Pundit]

I see you're one funny character, eti election next year.
You are into crazy theories.

2027?

Let's first wait for June/July.  Scork may just decide that elections are in Aug 2026.  Case is going through the filings and responses before hearing latest July.....

Needless to mention that whether its 2026 or 27, the 50% + 1 is likely to come into play for the first time ever.....I foresee many candidates running and joining hands in 2nd round....

Kenya voters are irremediably tribal.
Gen-Z is dead as dodo - it fallen apart as everyone run to their tribe.
Gen-Z would have send Ruto home if it erupted in 2027.
It erupted in 2024.
By 2027 it will be whimper.
The few diehards will attempt Maraga-Omtatah.
Matiangi is more dirty than Ruto in terms of abuse of power/dictatorship/extra judicial killing.
Only a gusii or bitter kikuyu can make an argument that Matiangi is good.

Anyway still early - but one thing is for sure - if Raila wont be backed by opposition leader(Uhuru) - he will back Ruto ending the game.
Matiangi is Uhuru test tube baby.

Black swan? 

Widespread protests are generally a harbinger of larger opposition to the incumbent government.

London riots of 15 years ago (2009) and Labour lost its 13 year incumbency the next year.  Black lives matter (2014  - 15) and Democrats lost the Senate/WH around the same time.

Agree it's too early to prepare tribal math.  On the same, the bottom up narrative that WSR unleashed at the last election has changed Kenyan politics in a manner that most do not want to acknowledge.  Hence the 25% WSR Ukambani vote. 

As for RAO, it's time to reckon that his time in Kenyan politics is up.  At his age, he can only be at the top of the ticket - yet him running yet another time will be one too many - he would lose even more allies (a la Weta/MDVD) cos how come he wants to be supported but cannot reciprocate?

In retrospect, once UK (16 years his junior) defeated him in 2013, it was over.  Then WSR, 21 years his junior, came along and his time is kaput.  Accommodating him as DP is embarrassing hence the AU plot.  Add the AU defeat and his narrative as a serial loser is sealed.

The same fate encompasses Kalonzo - who first ran for president in 20years ago and after 18 years in the cabinet has nothing to show what he accomplished. 

There is a very large mass of voters who do not feel any of these legacy politicians (RAO/WSR/Melon) - hence the lowest voter turnout in 20 years in 2022....and the protests in 2024 that were decidedly political. 

Question is - who is the candidate who can harness these disgruntled mass of voters?

[Githunguri]

Madvd is his on his way out.
Khalwale has already left.

[Tactician]

Crazy theories, eh?

Why dyu think there's all this heightened political activity with not even a byelection in sight?

The politicos know what's coming....just same way UK served 4yrs + 4 months in first term.   And Scork gets to fight back against the hounding by the hired attack dogs AA/NV....

But I am funny.   Lemme get back to my comedy

I see you're one funny character, eti election next year.
You are into crazy theories.

2027?

Let's first wait for June/July.  Scork may just decide that elections are in Aug 2026.  Case is going through the filings and responses before hearing latest July.....

Needless to mention that whether its 2026 or 27, the 50% + 1 is likely to come into play for the first time ever.....I foresee many candidates running and joining hands in 2nd round....

Kenya voters are irremediably tribal.
Gen-Z is dead as dodo - it fallen apart as everyone run to their tribe.
Gen-Z would have send Ruto home if it erupted in 2027.
It erupted in 2024.
By 2027 it will be whimper.
The few diehards will attempt Maraga-Omtatah.
Matiangi is more dirty than Ruto in terms of abuse of power/dictatorship/extra judicial killing.
Only a gusii or bitter kikuyu can make an argument that Matiangi is good.

Anyway still early - but one thing is for sure - if Raila wont be backed by opposition leader(Uhuru) - he will back Ruto ending the game.
Matiangi is Uhuru test tube baby.

Black swan? 

Widespread protests are generally a harbinger of larger opposition to the incumbent government.

London riots of 15 years ago (2009) and Labour lost its 13 year incumbency the next year.  Black lives matter (2014  - 15) and Democrats lost the Senate/WH around the same time.

Agree it's too early to prepare tribal math.  On the same, the bottom up narrative that WSR unleashed at the last election has changed Kenyan politics in a manner that most do not want to acknowledge.  Hence the 25% WSR Ukambani vote. 

As for RAO, it's time to reckon that his time in Kenyan politics is up.  At his age, he can only be at the top of the ticket - yet him running yet another time will be one too many - he would lose even more allies (a la Weta/MDVD) cos how come he wants to be supported but cannot reciprocate?

In retrospect, once UK (16 years his junior) defeated him in 2013, it was over.  Then WSR, 21 years his junior, came along and his time is kaput.  Accommodating him as DP is embarrassing hence the AU plot.  Add the AU defeat and his narrative as a serial loser is sealed.

The same fate encompasses Kalonzo - who first ran for president in 20years ago and after 18 years in the cabinet has nothing to show what he accomplished. 

There is a very large mass of voters who do not feel any of these legacy politicians (RAO/WSR/Melon) - hence the lowest voter turnout in 20 years in 2022....and the protests in 2024 that were decidedly political. 

Question is - who is the candidate who can harness these disgruntled mass of voters?

[RV Pundit]

Similar case by Omtatah was long dismissed.
You actually believe in Wanjigi silly lawyer of Piki piki Bonki;
Wenda wa simu

Crazy theories, eh?

Why dyu think there's all this heightened political activity with not even a byelection in sight?

The politicos know what's coming....just same way UK served 4yrs + 4 months in first term.   And Scork gets to fight back against the hounding by the hired attack dogs AA/NV....

But I am funny.   Lemme get back to my comedy

[Fairandbalanced]

This is not a typical Kenyan election, this is Ruto facing a hostile ground like Moi in 2002. This is an election to remove Ruto and all the previous tribal metrics will not be applicable, today he are a shoe in the face, a first in Kenya. Ruto will be beaten by Matiangi or Kalonzo overwhelmingly, if the opposition unite, there will be no second round and Ruto will be a one term president. If they do not unite, there willl be a second round that Ruto may not even feature in.