Yes this look very likely.
Kikuyus pretty much dont have good candidate ready for prime time.
They will front Muhoho or even Martha again to deputize Raila and hope he dies soon after.
Kalonzo will be relegated to no 3 - he is already sinking as nobody consider him seriously in that camp.
I see him crossing over to Ruto.
Ruto needs 8-10% from Mt kenya east or Ukambani or even Coast
Then he will go hunting for 10-12% nationally - he has to improve in Matusa+somali+borana+mijikenda crew by doubling his voters huko -
Raila will put double chance 1) to get a say in IEBC 2) to get money from Mbadi & team - and then 2026 hapo - he will likely withdrew his 'experts' - and ask Mt kenya to back him or he backs Ruto.
It's not easy to break such yoke akin to mzungu hold on Blacks/Minorities or Africans.
Soon you may need MOAS Raila-Kikuyus vs Ruto-Kalonzo.. Kalonzo may just pitia katikati and become PORK at 80.🙂