Pundit , you have not been anywhere credible since 2017 the following are factual reasons
You got it wrong when you Predicted Uhuru will support Ruto for 2022 We told you straight away He is supporting Raila
You got it wrong Predicting Ruto will win by more than 60% even performing worse than Uhuru in NEP , Maasai and Kisii and parts of Coast
You got it wrong on Gachaguas firm support on Ruto
You got it wrong on Trump in 2024
You got it wrong on Raila and AU elections
You got it wrong on Ukraine which is about to concede 25 % of it Land Mass to Russia
Now having said that apart from percentage of voting what matters is the voter turnout .
2022 was the dullest election because the known duell of Pro Raila vs Anti Raila was watered down by Uhuru , Anti Raila sides never came out in numbers like they did in 2007 / 2013 / 2017 similarly Pro Raila sides felt cheated having been told Adui Mkubwa is Kenyatta only for Raila to make a handshake with Uhuru.
Now its even worse Ruto betrayed Mt Kenya unlike Uhuru in second term he did it in first worse of all he went ahead and fired Mt Kenya leaders atleast something Uhuru didnt do even to Ruto and his kinsmen. The rage seen is like none before , they cant wait to express themselves in 2027 elections Voter turnout might even be in 90s not 60s experienced in 2022
Secondly Raila has been telling his supporters that Ruto is the evil one and now joins him Ogola has said that Railas supporters voter turnout will be 45% from 98%(ofcourse rigging by topup was there ) experienced in 2007 .
Now we know you also have ideas of riging you have mentioned before and Ogola has alluded to the same . The idea is to use North Kenya new ID registered voters and also incase Raila supports Ruto top up the numbers from the expected 45% voter turn out . Now for that to happen you have to change constitution in order to fully own IEBC , parliament and the courts . I can see its being done through the NADCO , however as was with BBI you have to beat the courts and because you have already pinched the courts this wont happen . With the current constitution , electoral laws and independent /Social media it will be hard to rig not forgetting if its attempted Ruto and Finally Raila will find themselves in the Hague . Remember Rutos case is still open .
You know little on Ethnic Maths.
Leave that to folks like us.
Like I told you in 2022 - when I did scenarios of Mt Kenya voting 30%, 50%, 70% - Ruto would have scored 39%, 43%, 47% of national vote - or something like that. He ended doing 80% of Mt kenya.
That is using his 2022 coalitions.
Now if Ruto scores 0% of Mt Kenya - he will be down to kitu 35% from his 2023 votes - at worst let say 30%.
He needs 20%.
If Kindiki is not delivering 30% of Mt Kenya (his big assignment) - Ruto will give DPORK to Luos or Kambas.
That gives you solid 10%.
Ruto needs another 10%.
He will just need to improve in Kamatusa+Coast+NEP
Then work on registration and turn out game.
Very easy.
How is he getting 50% + 1 when he has united Mt Kenya against to the level of 2007 even way worse.
Ruto knows he will be No 3 and as Ogalo have said above he thinks he can get away with Riging from North Eastern and Raila leaning areas a repeat of of 2007 when Nyanza voter turn out was 98 % followed by Rift Valleys .
Ruto has intelligence and as at now he knows the best he can get even with Railas support is No 2 if they betray each other with Raila he will be No 3 with Raila No 2 which will lead to a Runoff , He adamant to divide Mt Kenya Votes and in hope he can be No 2 and participate in Runoff with that he hopes to either get Backing of Mt Kenya if he promises them position ( a dead wish) and or get a deal with Raila after runoff which Raila is more than will as he had suggested the same to him in 2022 just before results were announced .
Having said that he is making mistake after mistake bringing Raila to his fold outcome will disastrous both ways One out come is Raila might betray him and take aways a big junk of his bigwigs Mudavadi and Wetangula have worked the longest with Raila , If no betrayal then Raila might not bring out the votes as he has done before , Raila supporters have started giving up on Raila as you have been told even if he runs the best voter outcome he might attract is 45%, now imagine running under Ruto …
Ruto is interested in getting 50% plus one.
Dividing Mt Kenya wont get him 50% plus one.
They call him a Rutos project . He should wisen up and not be used again by Ruto .
They are trying to create another Matiba vs Kibaki situation .
I can tell you for free he is playing both sides intelligence reports say that he could be the chosen one if Gachagua does not run and also if Gachagua runs he would still run to split further Mt Kenya votes .
So expect lots of Mt Kenya politician to run .
Can he be the No 1 candidate Ive been talking about ? As at now dont think so he needs to go hard on Ruto way harder than Gachagua , having said that i forsee Gachaguas cases being dropped like hot stones .
Ruto advisors made mistakes . Kindiki will be definitely made to Run when Ruto sees he cant convince Meru Embu on their side.
But Mt Kenya population will not agree to be decided
https://x.com/otienowill/status/1902009542868635956
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ndidi Nyoro is William Rutos Project .<br>Enrolling for a master's degree is not an achievement. It’s like holding a press conference to announce that you’ve opened a new M-Pesa account or that you've finally learned how to use Google Maps. A normal person just signs up, attends… <a href="https://t.co/m4KuOsCibz">pic.twitter.com/m4KuOsCibz</a></p>— Willis Evans Otieno (@otienowill) <a href="?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 18, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Topic: There is a Serious Campaign against Ruto (Read 2781 times)