1) Mt Kenya/GEMA and their diaspora don't want anything to do with Ruto.
2) Natembeya Eugene Salasya Malala are completely defeating Ruto in Western Kenya.Over 60% Luhyas will not vote for Ruto.
3) Based on 1 & 2 A coalition of Luhyas Kamba and GEMA MEANS that ODM will lose a lot of votes countrywide from their Luhyas and Kamba supporters.In such a coalition Raila/ODM will loose Nairobi Mombasa governors senators MPs and MCAs.In Western ODM will loose in Kakamega governor race and other major constituencies.It will have lessor governors senators MPs which means it has nothing to negotiate with whoever will be president.
4) Based on 1,2 and 3 Why should Raila/ODM stick with Ruto which means loss of political support?
5) As of now,If elections were held today,Ruto would only get votes in Rift Valley.Gachagua has GEMA, Natembeya Malala have Luhyas Kalonzo has Kamba and Raila has Luos and parts of Pwani.Ruto has support only in Rift valley.
6) Raila is very bitter because Kikuyu and Kalenjin have held the presidency for 60 years.Ousting Ruto to end up with Gachagua would have been unimaginable.Another Kikuyu was a no.Inorder to oust Ruto you had to oust Gachagua first.
7) After AUC elections.Raila whether he wins or loses will betray Ruto.He condemned the abductions,Then sent Sifuna his attack dog to make noise.Joho and Oparanya have gone underground.He wants to exit Ruto deal.Its a bad deal.With Gachagua baying for Ruto Ouster.He will join hands with Raila to launch nation wide protests.Ofcourse Kalonzo will join in.In that game,Protests will be held in all major parts of Kenya from Makueni Kakamega Nakuru Nairobi Mombasa.
The Kenyan police and army don't involve themselves in politics.In times of crisis or political tsunami like in 2002 2008 2022 They just seek for political settlement.They are self preserving.Ruto will be told to resign.
Muturi and Sifuna statements actions are very telling of negotiations happening in the background,schemes and backstabbing about to happen.Ruto of late seems to have been deserted by majority MPs and senators countrywide which tells of what we should expect.The calling of Ruto's arrest by Jeremiah Kioni, Muturi Ruto public fallout while still in Cabinet should not be taken lightly.If Raila/ODM is still with Ruto ,Why is Raila not sanctioning his Secretary General not to make such statements?Why is he not ejecting him from the party if he hasn't given him the go ahead to make such statements?Before Sifuna made such statements,What was discussed in Raila's presence?
Apart from Kalenjin MPs and Ichungwa,Who else is defending Ruto outside his community?
9) Gachagua will agree to this revolution because incase of dissolution of government and snap elections,He will get governors MPs senators and MCAs while Ruto will no longer be president,Will Raila agree?Yes if he will be the presidential candidate for such an arrangement.Kalonzo may agree if they give him deputy presidency.
I have nothing against Ruto,This is my observation.I have zero interest in politics.
Let's continue to monitor events.
Topic: After the 2025 revolution,Who takes over? (Read 387 times)