Raila and ODM think once Raila is in AU - they will remain untouched.
Ruto will go for ODM strongholds and make them so powerful in gov.
If Raila returns and say let go to opposition - he will go alone.
Once they start getting usual gov bribes from bahindi/bachina - forget opposition.
Beating an incumbent sio rahisi.
Opposition will be promising. Incumbent grants them immediately.
GEMA are in cross-road. Once hasira has ended - they will realize RiggyG is impeached, disbarred and not worth investing on - the only semblance of leader is Kindiki - or maybe they invest long term in say Ndidi Nyoro.
So the leaders will sit down and tell their people - Kindiki is better than nothing.
If we give Ruto kiburi - Luos like Wanga will replace Kindiki - and they kiss leadership 20yrs
With Kindiki - they will be back in 2032. If they go Kalonzo - earliest they get back is 2037- if he wins.
Otherwise Ruto does 2032 - Wanga or madvd does 2042
Gachagua AND Uhuru know a lot about Ruto's politics than you; that is why he wants to bring at least 4 million votes to the negotiating table. He already knows Oparanya, Weta, Mudavadi, and Atwoli are bringing almost 3-4 million Luhya votes. Joho and coastal politicians are bringing 2 million, and if Raila decides not to run, he will bring almost 3 million. To start, Ruto's Kamatusa's + RV environs 3M, plus Luhyas 2M + Joho's Coast 1+M, Kindiki 0.5-1M, Uhuru's 500,000 is already 7+, if Raila board, will be 9+. Ruto may not step foot in Central and still win like Moi in 1992 & 1997. Only Raila's move can shake Ruto's train because of the Oparanya/Joho factor, but now they are CS and enjoying Govt and may also ditch Raila. Ruto, I think, is a political wizard in Kenya. He plugged the two from Raila because he knew they held sway in their respected regions. Oparanya alone is stronger than Wetangula and Mudavadi combined in terms of bringing Luhya vote to the fold. I think MT Kenya will stick to Kindiki if he remains DP!